Slouching Towards Oblivion

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

COVID-19 Update

The US has about 5% of the world's population, and about 20% of the COVID-19 cases.

Seems like we do that with everything - energy consumption, pollution, war spending - all kinds of shit.

Growth Factors:

Cases:
1.15 - USA
1.09 - World

Deaths:
1.26 - USA
1.12 - World

 


And There It Is Again

Raising your core temperature improves your immune response in both bacterial and viral exposures.



Get your ass up. Move. Sweat.

And Now This

John Oliver

Taking a chance on COVID-19 in order to get back to work and "save the economy" doesn't trade one bad outcome for the other - it gets you both bad outcomes.

Saying It Out Loud

Brian Tyler Cohen

When everybody votes, Republicans lose.


Today's Tweet

No - I don't take responsibility at all

Monday, March 30, 2020

Today's Tweet


Yeehaw and away we go.

Here At Home

 

Governor Northam issued a Stay At Home order today.

Executive Order #55

NBC29 - Charlottesville

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — With the number of deaths and illnesses from the new coronavirus swelling in Virginia, Gov. Ralph Northam on Monday issued a statewide stay-at-home order.


Northam’s executive order tells the state’s approximately 8.5 million people they must stay home except for limited circumstances, such as traveling to or from work, seeking medical attention, obtaining goods and services, including food, or engaging in outdoor activity. The order also adds restrictions to the state’s public beaches, closing them to sunbathing but permitting exercising and fishing.

“Do not go out unless you need to go out. This is very different from wanting to go out,” he said.

Northam’s move is in line with steps taken by governors in neighboring Maryland and North Carolina.

When asked Friday about whether he would implement a stay-at-home order, Northam, who is a physician, responded: “We’re talking semantics here.”


He emphasized that he has repeatedly been calling on Virginians to stay home to the maximum extent possible.

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia was 1,020 on Monday, with 25 deaths from the illness, according to the state health department.

Among the confirmed cases, over 130 required hospitalization, according to the latest Virginia Department of Health figures.


For most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia and death.

The U.S. had more than 144,000 COVID-19 cases reported by Monday afternoon, with more than 2,500 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said over the weekend that the U.S. could experience between 100,000-200,000 deaths and millions of infections from the pandemic.


President Donald Trump over the weekend extended restrictive federal social distancing guidelines through April 30. At the state level, Northam had already closed schools for the remainder of the academic year, banned large gatherings and ordered the closure of certain businesses
.


So the numbers:
1020 total confirmed cases
130 (12.8%) require hospitalization
25 (19.2%) dead

The sample size, obviously, is way too tiny, so we have no real idea yet what the thing really looks like here in Virginia.

Meanwhile, Jerry The Dickhead Falwell's little stunt has resulted in a dozen or more showing symptoms, with at least one testing positive, and something like half of the kids who were back on campus (Falwell admits to about 800) have turned around and gone home in spite of him.

Ralph Northam is a physician (Pediatric Neurology).


Podcast

I'm late with this, but holy crap - it's all there.

"...this is not the 4th year of the Trump presidency - this is the 40th year of Reagan, and the 60th year of Nixon's Southern Strategy."

Hillary had pages in her Campaign Book dealing with what we needed to know
 just in case there was a fucking pandemic!!!



And check out their new one: Science Fiction University

Today In Leadership

From a few days ago, this is NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, thanking the Army Corps of Engineers for building their work in getting some new facilities up and running, and then delivering what's been sorely lacking from a "president" who worries only about his TV ratings and the money he can put in his own fucking pockets.

But I digress -


COVID-19 Udate

Growth Factors:

World
1.08 - cases
1.10 - deaths

USA
1.15 - cases
1.15 deaths



The rate of growth has slowed over the last coupla days, but the projections are still really scary.




Meanwhile, President Stoopid is setting it up so he can boast of his amazingly tremendous prowess in responding to COVID-19.

He said the death toll here in the US could've been 2 million if he'd done nothing, but since it'll be maybe only around 1 or 2 hundred thousand, it's obvious he's doing a great job, and so he gets all the credit.

And then he bragged about how the TV ratings have shot up because of his "briefings".

First, what the fuck is he even talking about - "doing nothing"? That's not a fucking option. But of course, for him, it is. "It could've been so much worse - I didn't have to do anything - the law doesn't say I have to help you people - but I did, and not that many of you died, so you need to get down on your knees and thank me."

Second, as phony and empty as his threats always are, make no mistake - that was a threat.

And we've seen it firsthand. He's said straight out that if Governors want federal help, they have to be nice to him. 

Some blue states have reported that minuscule amounts of aid have trickled in, while Florida (surprise surprise) has gotten everything they've asked for, and is expecting more soon.

So when this subsides, he'll stand up there like a rooster who's absolutely sure that the sun comes up only because he crows every morning.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Today's GIF

Step out - break the chain

 

Today's Pix

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Gotta Keep In Shape

BBC play-by-play guy trying to stay sharp as he quarantines.


COVID-19 Update

Growth Factors

Cases:
1.11 - World
1.19 - USA

Deaths:
1.13
1.28



 A running graphic - live feed - putting the world-wide current Total Case Fatality Rate at 4.69%:


Saturday, March 28, 2020

Today's GIF


COVID-19 Update

Growth Factors

Cases:
1.12 World
1.23 USA

Deaths:
1.15 World
1.32 USA



We're on track to go over 200,000 cases in the next 3 ½ days, and 3,000 deaths the day after tomorrow.

Reminder:

Friday, March 27, 2020

What's In The Bill?


Imagine the temptation - TWO TRILLION DOLLARS ($2,000,000,000,000.00).

The "smallest" tranche is about $450 Million, and how hard is it gonna be, really, to gin up some bullshit "company" that gets a teens-weensy little grant of $25 million or so.

We'd better have some really really really heavy scrutiny on the receipts. The gang we've got in charge is just champin' at the bit - straining for a chance to steal every dime they can fuckin' carry.

Kelsey Snell, NPR:

The Senate has passed a roughly $2 trillion coronavirus response bill intended to speed relief across the American economy. This is the third aid package from Congress and is meant to keep businesses and individuals afloat during an unprecedented freeze on the majority of American life.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., described the legislation, known as the CARES Act, as necessary emergency relief and vowed to put partisanship aside to get it done.

"No economic policy can fully end the hardship so long as the public health requires that we put so much of our commerce on ice," McConnell said in a speech on the Senate floor on Wednesday. "This isn't even a stimulus package. It is emergency relief. Emergency relief. That's what this is."

There are six main groups that would see the widest-reaching impacts: individuals, small businesses, big corporations, hospitals and public health, federal safety net, state and local governments, and education.

Deep Breath, Everybody

It's hard. Nothing but bad news and fuckups trying to blow sunshine up our skirts. But we have to try.


Breathe. Relax. Chill.



Today's Karma


Assuming god heard him pray for protection, and god could do nothing to help that preacher - god is impotent.

Assuming god heard him pray for protection, and god chose to do nothing to help that preacher - god is an asshole.

hat tip = Sam Harris

Seeing Our Immediate Future

This is NOT in place yet.


Detroit News:

Henry Ford Health System has prepared a policy for how its hospitals will determine which patients get to use ventilators should need surpass availability.

A letter circulated online Thursday said patients “will be assessed for eligibility” for ventilator support based on the extent of their symptoms, underlying health conditions and advanced directives.

That letter was in preparation for a "worst case scenario," but has not been enacted as policy, the Detroit-based five-hospital system said in a statement.

The hospital system has not reached capacity at any of its locations, nor has it reached the limit on ventilators at any of its hospitals, said Brenda Craig, vice president of the health system’s integrated communications.

“The letter is part of a larger internal document that unfortunately was shared publicly,” Craig said. “It would only be something used in a worst case scenario, and we are not in one right now at any of our hospitals.”


But remember - hospitals are traditionally very good at things like Risk Assessment and Risk Management and Contingency Planning.

And they don't waste resources on planning for things without having assigned it some fair probability of eventuation.

We're not ready for this shit, and it's probably going to get pretty fucking bad pretty fucking soon.

The View From In There

Rod Dreher, The American Conservative:

Tonight on Sean Hannity’s show, President Trump said (just past the 25:40 point) that people are exaggerating the number of ventilators needed in this crisis. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators,” said the president.

From The New York Times on Thursday:

What is really needed, a number of public health experts and former government officials say, is for Washington to take control of the nation’s existing ventilator supply. Because peak coronavirus infections will hit cities and regions at different times in the coming months, a centralized federal effort could send unused machines to hospitals that need them most.

“This is a national crisis,” said Frank Kendall, who served as under secretary of defense for acquisition and logistics in the Obama administration. “In a time of scarcity, you can’t leave it up to companies and governors to manage it themselves.”

Mr. Kendall said that only the federal government had the authority to take over the allocation of ventilators, both from manufacturers who are in the business of selling devices to the highest bidder, and state leaders unlikely to voluntarily let go of machines they fear they might need in the future.

“As the states become more desperate, someone has to referee the situation,” he said. “The marketplace isn’t set up to do that.”

The United States currently has between 160,000 and 200,000 ventilators, but could need up to a million machines over the course of the outbreak, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine. In New York, the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., hospitals are already on the verge of running out, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said this week.


What Dreher and others have been trying to make clear is that 45* is not arguing against the cost of the efforts - or telling us how hard it is to do it - he says straight out that he doesn't believe it when he's told what's going on and what it's going to take to handle the problem.

He doesn't want it to be true, so he just denies it - apparently thinking (as he's always done) that all he has to do is wish it away and somebody will make it all better for him.

FOR HIM

COVID-19 Update

Partial recap - FactCheck.org:

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” — Trump in a CNBC interview.

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.

Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House. (See our item “Will the New Coronavirus ‘Go Away’ in April?“)

Feb. 14: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus. So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” — Trump in speaking to National Border Patrol Council members.

Feb. 23: “We have it very much under control in this country.” — Trump in speaking to reporters.

Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” — Trump in a tweet.

Feb. 26: “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” — Trump at a White House briefing.

Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference.

Feb. 26: “I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” — Trump at a press conference, when asked if “U.S. schools should be preparing for a coronavirus spreading.”

Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders.

Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C.

March 4: “[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” — Trump at a White House meeting with airline CEOs.

March 4: “Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News, referring to the percentage of diagnosed COVID-19 patients worldwide who had died, as reported by the World Health Organization. (See our item “Trump and the Coronavirus Death Rate.”)

March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of the coronavirus in the Washington, D.C., area.

March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” — Trump in a tweet.

March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.

This morning:
1.11 = World Growth Factor
1.24 = USA Growth Factor



And it probably gets quite a bit worse for a while.

The good news is that as the days lengthen, we can count the positive germicidal effects of UV-C exposure.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

The Plan

Simon Pegg and Nick Frost

A Fucked Up Milestone

We topped over the 1000 mark for dead Americans.

The increase in cases reported is at 1.25 times the previous day, which is in line with the exponential spread - doubling every 4 or 5 or 6 days.

If we're not at about 120,000 cases in the US on April 1st, we'll know the thing is starting to flatten out a little, but that it's likely to be a "false indicator" - due to the lessening in certain areas rather than any kind of overall improvement.



Fingers crossed, hoping to see an actual decrease in the number of dumb fuckin' Republicans like that clown in Mississippi telling people to ignore their local authorities, and that's it's OK to congregate.



Today's Tweet



Dammit - why didn't somebody remind me to check my crypt?

A Joke

On the morning of January 21, 2021, an older gent strode up to the White House gate and said he'd like to meet with President Trump.

The Marine guard said, "Sorry sir, I can't admit you without clearance, and Mr Trump is no longer the president."

The next day, the old guy showed up again and asked to see President Trump.

And again, the Marine guard said, "Sorry sir, I can't admit you without clearance, and Mr Trump is no longer the president."

This went on for another 5 days, and finally, the guard said, "Sir - you've been here every morning for a week, and every morning I've told you that you can't come in without clearance and that Mr Trump is no longer the president. May I ask - what's up with that, sir?"

And the old man replied, with a slight glistening in his eye, "I just really enjoy hearing you tell me that fat slob isn't the president anymore - thank you, son."

The guard snapped to, saluted, and said, "Roger that, sir - see you tomorrow."

hat tip = driftglass

Check The Timelines

I think we need to see the COVID-19 timeline compared with the impeachment timeline.

Here are a few highlights, as I've been able to piece some of this shit together:

The first case of what would become known as COVID-19 was recorded in November 2019.

In the December-January timeframe, American intelligence agencies (and other entities, in this and other countries) reported to federal officials about the concerns coming from the pros at CDC and WHO.

Articles of impeachment were presented in the Senate mid-January, and the votes to acquit were take on February 5.


They knew.

  • At the very least, there were loud and urgent warnings of what was coming
  • After 3 years, they knew damned well that 45* was poorly equipped to handle much of anything beyond an ad lib photo op
They knew what was coming and they left that orange blob in place.

A wiser man than I admonishes us never to assume nefarious intent when looking at even the most glaring instances of ineptitude.

But how do I adhere to that when it seems like it just gets more obvious that something's up?