#ActInTimeDEADLINETime left to limit global warming to 1.5°C 4YRS111DAYS20:01:32 LIFELINEWorld's energy from renewables14.784993637%Ambitious climate action could boost global 2040 GDP by 0.2% | Tanzania’s marine reserves offer long-term benefits to communities | Paris residents vote in favor of making 500 more streets pedestrian | Use of pesticides on UK farms to be cut by 10% by 2030 to protect bees | New forest to be created in England, with 20m trees planted by 2050 | Affordable e-bikes are transforming delivery work for Latin American migrants | California & Sonora sign agreement to boost clean energy & climate collaboration | UK to invest $260 million on solar panels for schools and hospitals | Green power to give 570 million energy access in Africa | UN hails rare success story as emissions from construction stop rising | Ambitious climate action could boost global 2040 GDP by 0.2% | Tanzania’s marine reserves offer long-term benefits to communities | Paris residents vote in favor of making 500 more streets pedestrian | Use of pesticides on UK farms to be cut by 10% by 2030 to protect bees | New forest to be created in England, with 20m trees planted by 2050 | Affordable e-bikes are transforming delivery work for Latin American migrants | California & Sonora sign agreement to boost clean energy & climate collaboration | UK to invest $260 million on solar panels for schools and hospitals | Green power to give 570 million energy access in Africa | UN hails rare success story as emissions from construction stop rising |

May 16, 2014

Logical Fallacy # 13 - The Gambler's Fallacy




The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
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