Donald Trump is the perfect example
of what happens when nobody
ever told you to just shut the fuck up
Jul 7, 2026
Jul 6, 2026
Storm Comin'
The S&P 500 just notched its best quarter since 2020 and is up about 9% so far this year, but it’s mostly downhill from here, according to Bank of America.
In a note on Tuesday, analysts reaffirmed their year-end price target of 7,100 for the broad market index, representing a 5% drop from the week’s closing level.
“Our bear market signposts suggest speculation is hitting extreme levels as high multiple stocks have gapped up demonstrably, an event that has historically preceded a valuation ‘snapback,'” BofA said.
The bank added that S&P 500 companies are generating less free cash flow relative to net income compared to historical trends. That’s as so-called hyperscalers have seen their free cash flow plunge due to massive spending on the AI boom, eroding their earnings.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is fighting sticky inflation after more than five years of letting it run above its 2% target. BofA recently predicted the Fed has now run out of patience and will hike rates three times this year to finally rein in inflation.
To be sure, the S&P 500 generally saw positive returns during previous tightening cycles, as stocks peaked six to 12 months after the first rate hike.
But Fed rate hikes now would hit differently, BofA explained, because the S&P 500 is more expensive ahead of a first rate hike than any other cycle, except for the one that ran from 1999 to 2000.
Chip stocks in particular have been on astronomical runs lately as the unrelenting AI boom sends demand soaring. Micron Technology, for example, is up 242% so far in 2026 and up 700% from a year ago, even after a recent selloff.
That’s fueled worries that the good times may be coming to an end soon. After hitting an all-time high of 7,621 just a month ago, the S&P 500 has gone on wild swings, losing about 2% in the process.
Elsewhere, stocks have been on even worse stomach-churning rollercoasters. South Korea’s high-flying Kospi stock index, which is dominated by AI darlings SK Hynix, and Samsung, set a new record a few weeks ago only to suffer its fifth worst daily plunge ever days later.
Such moves are especially worrisome for Capital Economics, which pointed out that similar selloffs have previously only happened during bear markets like during the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com bubble, and the Great Financial Crisis.
“This volatility is, in our view, evidence of excessive froth and calls into the question the sustainability of this rally,” analysts said.
Even a mostly bullish outlook from JPMorgan last month came with a “flash crash” warning. Still, analysts raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 from 7,600, citing strong earnings estimates.
The forecast assumes the Fed holds rate steady this year, then raises next year, while the market’s top gainers will remain highly concentrated in AI stocks.
“That said, the path higher is likely to be non-linear given a tougher bar into 2Q earnings, crowded Momentum positioning (especially Low- Quality and Speculative Growth segments) that continues to face high probability of a flash-crash, rapidly increasing equity supply, and potentially tighter monetary policy that could constrain equity multiples,” JPMorgan wrote.
Others on Wall Street are more bullish. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni, who has been beating the drum about another Roaring Twenties since the decade began, hiked his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,250 from 7,700 in May.
He cited strong corporate earnings and expectations that they will remain robust. Yardeni backed his view over the weekend and dismissed comparisons between today’s AI boom and the dot-com bubble.
“The late 1990s meltup was led by the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector,” he wrote on Saturday. “It was driven by FOMO (fear of missing out). The current bull market is driven by FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum).”
Heather Cox Richardson
"They don't want good. They don't love God and they don't want God. They don't love religion and they don't want religion, and they won't have it, but we will not let them win. They have no chance against us. They have no respect for law, justice, principle, tradition, or your God-given rights. It's an ideology of mass theft, mass control, mass lies, and mass murder."
100% on brand - pure projection. Because every Trump accusation is a confession.
Fuel Things
Per Google AIYou can put E15 (Unleaded 88) in most cars manufactured after 2000, including flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs).
However, it is not safe for motorcycles, boats, lawnmowers, or passenger vehicles older than 2001.
Before you pull up to the pump, follow these steps:
- Check Your Owner’s Manual: The U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center notes that while it is generally EPA-approved for 2001 and newer cars, some manufacturers explicitly forbid it. Always check your manual or driver's side door jamb to ensure the automaker supports it.
- Understand the Fuel: E15 contains 10.5% to 15% ethanol. Because ethanol has a lower energy density than pure gasoline, you may see a slight drop in your miles per gallon (MPG).
- Avoid Small Engines: Never use E15 in off-road equipment, motorcycles, or boats, as the higher ethanol content can severely damage their fuel systems and void warranties.
But check your sources - Honda says not to use E15 in my 2006 CR-V.
Belle
It's not official - it's never official unless it's 100% happy talk bullshit - but DOGE is done.
Trump promised $2T in savings, enough to send every household a check for $5000.
Don't hold your breath.
Trump's fucked up COVID-19 response cost us more than it had to, so he doesn't get a full pass on that one. Let's be overly generous, and just say half of the $3.6T in increased spending due to COVID-19 belongs to him.
All told, in his not-quite 6 years in office, he's bumped spending by $6.6T - a trillion of that is just the increased interest we have to pay on the ten-year T-bills that make up the debt.
So he spends more while his tax cuts for plutocrats means we bring in less, and somehow the MAGA rubes still believe he's some kind of fucking genius business guy.
Real sick of this shit.
Jul 5, 2026
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