Malicious Compliance.
The people who get tapped for one of Trump's stupid little stunts may be trying to send us another signal - like what they did last year with Trump's birthday parade.
Sep 26, 2026
Sep 25, 2026
ICE Follies
AI Summary:
When and How ICE Can Stop a Vehicle
- Reasonable Suspicion: ICE agents cannot pull you over for routine local traffic infractions, such as a broken tail light or speeding, because they enforce federal immigration law rather than state traffic laws. They must have reasonable suspicion based on specific, articulable facts that an occupant in the vehicle is in the U.S. unlawfully.
- Pretextual Stops: Legal challenges and settlements—such as Castañon Nava v. Department of Homeland Security—restrict ICE from using minor or pretextual traffic violations to engage in racial profiling or sweeping collateral arrests in many jurisdictions.
- Signaling to Stop: ICE agents frequently use unmarked vehicles and plain clothes. However, drivers are only legally required to pull over when officers visibly identify themselves and signal to stop using emergency lights or sirens.
What to Do During a Stop
- Ask Questions Safely: If you are pulled over, ask the officers through a partially rolled-down window what agency they belong to (police vs. ICE/CBP) and the reason for the stop.
- Know Your Rights: You have the right to remain silent and do not have to answer questions about your citizenship or immigration status. If you have lawful status, you may choose to show valid documentation
I can't wait 'til somebody sues the fuck outa these assholes.
Sarah Matthews
It occurs to me that my fondness for these Bulwark contributors kinda harkens back to a time when we could disagree and punch around with each other over policy differences, and still be able to hang out together because we both knew the other one was keeping the faith - we both wanted what's best for the most, we just thought we needed to go about getting the best in different ways.
At least, that was the pleasant, comfortable, fragile understanding (some say fantasy) that let us sleep better at night.
The truth is that there are always - have always been - will always be - assholes who can't be satisfied with winning the debate. They have to dominate, subjugate, and dictate. And that desire - that need - to be able to dictate everything to everyone is the real fantasy. Because it doesn't work in the long run.
People will be free.
It's been said that you don't want to set up a system of government that requires a change in human nature in order to work well. And democracy's opponents - those people who need to rule instead of serve - believe they have the winning argument against it. Because in a democracy, we have to give a little. We have to go against our basic animal instincts of "I Me Mine" and work in the interest of the whole.
That doesn't mean anybody is required to be "selfless", but that's a whole big messy can of worms. That one always leads me back to Ayn Rand, and Milton Friedman, and Freddie Hayak, which requires a lengthy dissertation on how it sounds pretty good at first, but almost immediately crashes and burns in The Logical Extreme (where even good ideas go to die).
Anyway - Sarah Matthews, and our family shit is not to be paraded in front of strangers.
Signs
AI Summary:
Consumer sentiment measures how confident people feel about their personal financial situation and the broader economy.
Consumer sentiment measures how confident people feel about their personal financial situation and the broader economy.
Why It Matters
U.S. consumer sentiment is sinking to a four-month low as inflation fears deepen
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% in September, the highest reading since June and up from 3.4% before the Iran conflict began
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 48.1 in September, its lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026, as rising inflation fears and a deteriorating outlook for business conditions weighed on households.
August's reading of 51.7 represented a 7% month-over-month gain that September erased; the index also trailed the year-ago September 2025 figure of 55.1 by 12.7%. The final September number edged above the preliminary estimate of 47.8 and topped the 47.6 consensus forecast compiled by Reuters.
Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers, said that across both current and year-ahead personal finance measures, consumers reported roughly 10% deterioration, as anxiety about elevated prices kept intensifying. The short-run outlook for business conditions dropped amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could weigh on the broader economy. "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year," Hsu said in a statement. "After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026; Democrats are down 13% over the same period."
The twelve-month inflation outlook climbed to 4.6% from August's 4.0%, its steepest mark since June and a sharp departure from the 3.4% level that prevailed in February, before hostilities with Iran erupted — a level that also topped every 2024 reading. Five-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, snapping a three-month run at 3.3% and remaining well outside the 2.8%-to-3.2% band that prevailed throughout 2024.
The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to 46.3 from 51.5 in August, a 10.1% slide, while the Current Economic Conditions index edged down to 50.9 from 51.9, off 1.9%. One relative bright spot was durable-goods buying conditions, which improved as some households said they wanted to lock in purchases ahead of anticipated price increases, the university noted.
September's reading extends a difficult stretch for consumer confidence that began when conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil markets. Sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May, undercutting every prior result in a data series that stretches back to 1952 and encompasses downturns, wars, the stagflation of the 1970s, the Great Recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Sentiment recovered partially in June and July before declining about 8% in August as inflation worries linked to the Middle East conflict reasserted themselves. Every one of the index's four worst results on record has been posted in the last six months, according to CNN.
The Federal Reserve, which earlier this month lifted borrowing costs for the first time in three years, watches inflation expectations carefully, according to CNN. When consumers become convinced that prices will keep climbing, they tend to accelerate purchases and push for wage increases — behaviors that can feed the inflationary pressures they fear.
The university's next data release, covering preliminary October figures, is scheduled for Friday, October 9.
- Drives Spending: High confidence makes people spend and shop more, which helps the economy grow.
- Signals Slowdowns: Low confidence makes people save money and buy fewer things, which can slow down economic activity.
- Risks Inflation: Too much optimism can cause high spending, leading to rising prices and inflation.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% in September, the highest reading since June and up from 3.4% before the Iran conflict began
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 48.1 in September, its lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026, as rising inflation fears and a deteriorating outlook for business conditions weighed on households.
August's reading of 51.7 represented a 7% month-over-month gain that September erased; the index also trailed the year-ago September 2025 figure of 55.1 by 12.7%. The final September number edged above the preliminary estimate of 47.8 and topped the 47.6 consensus forecast compiled by Reuters.
Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers, said that across both current and year-ahead personal finance measures, consumers reported roughly 10% deterioration, as anxiety about elevated prices kept intensifying. The short-run outlook for business conditions dropped amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could weigh on the broader economy. "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year," Hsu said in a statement. "After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026; Democrats are down 13% over the same period."
The twelve-month inflation outlook climbed to 4.6% from August's 4.0%, its steepest mark since June and a sharp departure from the 3.4% level that prevailed in February, before hostilities with Iran erupted — a level that also topped every 2024 reading. Five-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, snapping a three-month run at 3.3% and remaining well outside the 2.8%-to-3.2% band that prevailed throughout 2024.
The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to 46.3 from 51.5 in August, a 10.1% slide, while the Current Economic Conditions index edged down to 50.9 from 51.9, off 1.9%. One relative bright spot was durable-goods buying conditions, which improved as some households said they wanted to lock in purchases ahead of anticipated price increases, the university noted.
September's reading extends a difficult stretch for consumer confidence that began when conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil markets. Sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May, undercutting every prior result in a data series that stretches back to 1952 and encompasses downturns, wars, the stagflation of the 1970s, the Great Recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Sentiment recovered partially in June and July before declining about 8% in August as inflation worries linked to the Middle East conflict reasserted themselves. Every one of the index's four worst results on record has been posted in the last six months, according to CNN.
The Federal Reserve, which earlier this month lifted borrowing costs for the first time in three years, watches inflation expectations carefully, according to CNN. When consumers become convinced that prices will keep climbing, they tend to accelerate purchases and push for wage increases — behaviors that can feed the inflationary pressures they fear.
The university's next data release, covering preliminary October figures, is scheduled for Friday, October 9.
Resistance
All of this is conventional wisdom, because it describes what has always been necessary for regime change. So I can't say it's everything we need to know, but I can say that we're seeing some of it now in this country as MAGA begins to crumble.
The main point is to keep pushing.
Truth Social posts aren’t going to make it happen.
Matthew Gould has served as a British ambassador to Israel and deputy ambassador to Iran.
The tragedy of the Iranian people is captured in three remarks this year by President Donald Trump. On Jan. 13, in a week when thousands of protesters were killed, he posted on Truth Social, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” He promised that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
In the early hours of Feb. 28, as America and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, he encouraged them again in a televised address, “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”
On Sept. 1, he posted again on Truth Social, this time more plaintively. “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”
The Iranian regime, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at its heart, are ruthlessly determined to remain in power. They have repeatedly defied expectations with their success in doing so. And this year has seen them survive two major events that many observers had predicted would bring them down.
The protests that started in December 2025 were the most serious the regime has faced. They began not with middle-class students but with a strike by the shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. Protests followed in all 31 of Iran’s provinces. A European diplomat reported well over a million protesters on the streets of the capital n Jan. 8. The regime responded brutally and decisively, with at least 3,000 protesters confirmed dead, and credible estimates as high as 30,000. Mass protests alone turned out not to be enough.
Then, on Feb. 28, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike. He had been supreme leader for more than 36 years and president for the eight years before that. If a change in leadership were to bring about regime change, this should have been the moment. He had no nominated successor, his son Mojtaba (who was eventually appointed to the post) was badly injured in the same strikes, and for a brief period the country was ruled by an ad hoc triumvirate. Yet once again, the regime proved itself resilient. Power passed to a more hard-line next generation.
So what would it take to topple the regime? Five factors will be key — and none will be easy to achieve.
First, the Iranian people, despite being repeatedly traumatized by violence, will need to take to the streets again. They will need to rebuild the coalition that formed at start of the year, crossing class and region.
The most likely cause of their united protests would be economic hardship — which Iranians blame as much on their own government as on the United States. Inflation is at its highest level since World War II, more than 1 in 5 young people are unemployed, the price of fuel has gone up and there is not enough fuel to go around. A bad winter could push more people onto the streets.
Second, they would need to remain on the streets beyond the inevitable crackdown and internet blackout. The regime will be threatened only if the protests persevere.
So the third requirement will be infrastructure that lets citizens organize even without the internet. During the January protests, when the regime tried to impose a complete digital blackout, Starlink activated free access for Iranian accounts and the Trump administration smuggled thousands of terminals into the country. But the regime responded fast — jamming Starlink’s GPS signal in Tehran with technology probably supplied by Russia or China and hunting down dishes on the ground — cutting connectivity by up to 80 percent. The U.S.-supplied circumvention systems that might have helped protesters had been mostly cut off when the Trump administration shut down foreign aid a year earlier.
Next and perhaps most important of all, the security forces need to wobble. Revolutions succeed when militaries are uncertain. In 1979, the shah of Iran’s army, having fired on protesters for months, finally stood aside. In 2024, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army didn’t so much defect as evaporate. But so far, despite optimistic predictions, the Iranian military has stayed largely intact. The IRGC and its paramilitary Basij force have remained loyal, tied to the status quo by ideology and economic self-interest.
Finally, the regime itself needs to crumble, which it will if mid-tier officials decide that the old order is finished. This will not happen until they see a future for themselves on the other side. Total isolation gives them no reason to jump ship.
With these conditions met, protests might have a chance, and the regime might finally give way. Without them, no amount of aerial bombardment or White House encouragement will be enough.
If and when that day comes, it will be important that the United States and others are not banking on a smooth or easy transition to a new government. Just as likely will be a period of chaos, a vacuum in leadership and the emboldening of separatist groups at Iran’s periphery, from Kurds in the northwest to the Baluch in the southeast.
More useful than further online exhortations from the president would be if he ordered the creation of a comprehensive plan that can stand ready for the moment it is needed, providing immediate security, humanitarian and reconstruction support. Only then would the message “help is on its way” matter, and the Iranian people could start to build the future that they deserve.
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