Oct 15, 2026
Ms West, If You Please
Candidate for Fayette County Council, Jaime West
Was she a bit tipsy? Possible.
Was she wrong? Doubtful.
Did she behave differently than just about any Republican lately? Hell no.
The Storm Gathers
WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong majority of voters believe that President Donald Trump is falling short at home and abroad, and they want major change in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new AP-NORC poll that raises serious warning signs for the Republican Party at a critical moment.
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, finds that registered voters who identify as Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republican voters about casting a ballot. More voters want Democrats to win control of Congress and have a more negative view of Republicans.
The Democratic advantage is small in some cases, but, taken together, the findings paint a challenging picture for Republicans, who are clinging to control of Congress under the weight of an unpopular war with Iran and surging prices at home.
About 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues for the upcoming election, while about two-thirds say this about healthcare and the war in Iran. Other issues that are stronger for Trump — like immigration or crime — are lower priorities.
“The world is going backwards. We can barely afford anything,” said Diana Walker, a 65-year-old Democrat from Decatur, Georgia. “Everybody’s down. I don’t care if you’re a Democrat or Republican, we’re all catching hell.”
Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans
Less than a month before the final midterm votes are cast, the poll finds that Democratic voters are more motivated to vote.
Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say it’s “extremely” important to vote in the upcoming election, while about 2 in 10 say it’s “very” important.
But about three-quarters of Democratic voters say that voting in this November’s midterm elections is “extremely” important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans.
One thing is crystal clear on the eve of the 2026 midterms: Voters want change.
About half of voters say they want “substantial change,” and roughly 3 in 10 want “complete and total upheaval” in the way the country is run.
Democrats and independents are much likelier than Republicans to want a full overhaul of the country’s direction. But even Republican voters are still looking for something different. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, want substantial change, while 13% want upheaval.
“I’m kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done,” said Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican from near Davey, Nebraska. “Nothing’s changing.”
Trump’s numbers on key issues are weak
Voters are deeply frustrated with Trump and his leadership on the issues they say matter most.
Only about one-third of registered voters overall have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Republican president, and a similar share approve of his performance as president.
Voters continue to be frustrated by the high cost of living, an issue that Trump vowed to address before winning a second term in the White House.
Nearly two years after his successful election, about 8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, in line with a September AP-NORC poll. About three-quarters disapprove of his performance on the economy.
Even among Republican voters, only 44% approve of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, while 54% approve of his leadership on the economy. That’s a sharp contrast with other issues, like crime, on which Republican approval is much higher.
There are cracks in Trump’s Republican base on other issues, too. Just 69% of Republican voters support Trump on foreign policy as the war in Iran stretches into its eighth month, despite his promises that it would only last four or five weeks.
DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, says she will continue to support Republican candidates this fall, but she’s not happy with the state of the economy under Trump’s leadership.
“Everything’s going up,” she said, pointing to the impact of the war with Iran, among other Trump decisions. “I don’t agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It’s making this country look bad.”
The economy and the cost of living are high priorities for voters on both sides of the aisle. The survey found that the vast majority of Republican and Democratic voters say both issues are among the most important for the upcoming election.
Voters aren’t any higher on one of Trump’s potential successors in the next presidential election, Vice President JD Vance: About half have a “somewhat” or “very” negative view of Vance, compared with about one-third who have a positive opinion.
Enthusiasm for the Democrats isn’t overwhelming
Trump’s struggles do not mean that voters are particularly excited about the direction of the Democratic Party.
Overall, about 4 in 10 voters have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Democrats, while about half view the party unfavorably. That’s roughly similar to views of the GOP, although about 6 in 10 voters view the Republicans unfavorably.
Democratic and Republican voters are equally enthusiastic about their own side, with about 8 in 10 saying they have a favorable view of their own party.
But the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats. About two-thirds of independent voters view the GOP negatively, compared with about 4 in 10 who view Democrats negatively.
Michael Russo, a 51-year-old Texas voter who is not registered with either party, described the state of the country under Republican control as “a nightmare.”
Does he want Republicans to maintain control of Congress? “No, I want them in prison — several of them,” he said. But he’s not thrilled with the Democratic Party, either.
“I’m not confident they’re going to do anything if they get into power,” Russo said.
Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say it’s “extremely” important to vote in the upcoming election, while about 2 in 10 say it’s “very” important.
But about three-quarters of Democratic voters say that voting in this November’s midterm elections is “extremely” important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans.
Ryan Longbrake, a 52-year-old Democrat from Columbus, Ohio who works in technology marketing, said he’s especially excited about casting his ballot, and he’s already taken steps to ensure that his wife and two college-age daughters will vote as well.
“I believe that there is change on the horizon and there is an excitement within our party,” he said, pointing to Democrats’ momentum in Ohio’s elections for governor and U.S. Senate. The party is also investing resources in Republican-leaning states, like Iowa and Kansas, where the political environment has put Democratic candidates on friendlier footing.
Republicans have controlled Congress for the past two years, but about half of registered voters now say they’d prefer to see the Democratic Party control the House or the Senate. A smaller percentage, roughly 4 in 10, say they want the Republican Party to control each chamber, while 15% are undecided.
The vast majority of voters want change
“I believe that there is change on the horizon and there is an excitement within our party,” he said, pointing to Democrats’ momentum in Ohio’s elections for governor and U.S. Senate. The party is also investing resources in Republican-leaning states, like Iowa and Kansas, where the political environment has put Democratic candidates on friendlier footing.
Republicans have controlled Congress for the past two years, but about half of registered voters now say they’d prefer to see the Democratic Party control the House or the Senate. A smaller percentage, roughly 4 in 10, say they want the Republican Party to control each chamber, while 15% are undecided.
The vast majority of voters want change
One thing is crystal clear on the eve of the 2026 midterms: Voters want change.
About half of voters say they want “substantial change,” and roughly 3 in 10 want “complete and total upheaval” in the way the country is run.
“I’m kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done,” said Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican from near Davey, Nebraska. “Nothing’s changing.”
Trump’s numbers on key issues are weak
Voters are deeply frustrated with Trump and his leadership on the issues they say matter most.
Only about one-third of registered voters overall have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Republican president, and a similar share approve of his performance as president.
Voters continue to be frustrated by the high cost of living, an issue that Trump vowed to address before winning a second term in the White House.
Nearly two years after his successful election, about 8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, in line with a September AP-NORC poll. About three-quarters disapprove of his performance on the economy.
Even among Republican voters, only 44% approve of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, while 54% approve of his leadership on the economy. That’s a sharp contrast with other issues, like crime, on which Republican approval is much higher.
There are cracks in Trump’s Republican base on other issues, too. Just 69% of Republican voters support Trump on foreign policy as the war in Iran stretches into its eighth month, despite his promises that it would only last four or five weeks.
DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, says she will continue to support Republican candidates this fall, but she’s not happy with the state of the economy under Trump’s leadership.
“Everything’s going up,” she said, pointing to the impact of the war with Iran, among other Trump decisions. “I don’t agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It’s making this country look bad.”
The economy and the cost of living are high priorities for voters on both sides of the aisle. The survey found that the vast majority of Republican and Democratic voters say both issues are among the most important for the upcoming election.
Voters aren’t any higher on one of Trump’s potential successors in the next presidential election, Vice President JD Vance: About half have a “somewhat” or “very” negative view of Vance, compared with about one-third who have a positive opinion.
Enthusiasm for the Democrats isn’t overwhelming
Trump’s struggles do not mean that voters are particularly excited about the direction of the Democratic Party.
Overall, about 4 in 10 voters have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Democrats, while about half view the party unfavorably. That’s roughly similar to views of the GOP, although about 6 in 10 voters view the Republicans unfavorably.
Democratic and Republican voters are equally enthusiastic about their own side, with about 8 in 10 saying they have a favorable view of their own party.
But the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats. About two-thirds of independent voters view the GOP negatively, compared with about 4 in 10 who view Democrats negatively.
Michael Russo, a 51-year-old Texas voter who is not registered with either party, described the state of the country under Republican control as “a nightmare.”
Does he want Republicans to maintain control of Congress? “No, I want them in prison — several of them,” he said. But he’s not thrilled with the Democratic Party, either.
“I’m not confident they’re going to do anything if they get into power,” Russo said.
Paul Krugman
My fears for the next two years
By the middle of March 1945 even Adolf Hitler knew that the war was lost. Soviet forces were within 45 miles of Berlin. American forces had crossed the Rhine and were well on their way to encircling the remaining German defenders. But Hitler didn’t believe that he had failed. He believed that he had been failed by the German people.
So on March 19 he issued the “Decree concerning demolitions in the Reich territory,” which has come to be known as the Nerobefehl or Nero decree. It ordered the destruction of Germany’s own infrastructure — supposedly to deny that infrastructure to the Allies, but the obvious purpose was to punish his own country.
Fortunately, Albert Speer and other Nazi officials didn’t carry out the order, although they apparently didn’t tell Hitler what was (not) happening.
Why am I recounting this history? Obviously because I’m thinking about what will happen after the midterms.
All indications are that Republicans are headed for massive defeat in elections that Trump has deliberately made a referendum on himself: “MAGA, pretend that I am on the ballot.” So what will he do when Americans show what they really think of him?
He will, of course, claim that the election was rigged and try to overturn the results. Assuming that he fails, however, then what?
Loss of Congress will limit Trump’s power, but by no means eliminate it. Above all, he will retain immense capacity to inflict destruction on America, not to mention America’s allies.
Over the past few days, according to President Zelenskyy, Ukraine has received no warning from the West about impending Russian missile strikes. This could reflect technical problems. But anyone dismissing the possibility that Trump is trying to punish Ukraine for daring to deny victory to his friend Vladimir Putin must have slept through the past two years.
At home, Trump officials suddenly cut down hundreds of trees at a public golf course in Washington. Trump has long wanted to remake that golf course to his own taste, but that’s unlikely to happen given the political winds, and in any case there was no need to rush the destruction. This was almost surely an act of spite, of deliberate vandalism, undertaken precisely because Trump knows he won’t get his way.
And while a few hundred trees are not in themselves that big a deal, they represent the shape of things to come.
Think of the Kennedy Center, a national icon that Trump is destroying because he can’t put his own name on it, as the model for what is all too likely to happen to America over the next two years.
Can Democrats stop the coming reign of destruction? Unfortunately, a corrupt, partisan majority on the Supreme Court, invoking the “unitary executive” theory, has given Trump a huge amount of untrammeled power, especially because he is surrounded by minions — many approved by supine Republicans in Congress — who are willing, even eager to break the law. And he is also backed by oligarchs with vast resources who will continue to enable his attack on democracy even if their billions in political spending aren’t enough to buy this election.
But one thing Democrats can do is make it clear that everyone who aids and abets Trump in his Neroism can and will be held accountable to the full extent of the law. At this point anyone who says something like “We should look forward, not back” is making it significantly less likely that we will have anything to look forward to.
Leaks In The Dam
President Trump has directed his White House counsel to examine explosive allegations dropped on him Friday in the Oval Office:
- Former Trump attorney Alina Habba told the president that another one of his top advisers — former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell — failed to deposit a multimillion-dollar donation that her billionaire husband made to the center a year ago, according to four senior administration officials and three insiders briefed on the controversy.
- Grenell denied the accusations as "absurd" and a "lie."
- Habba and her husband, Turhan Mildon, declined to comment through a spokesperson.
The extraordinary row between the two top-tier presidential advisers and former allies provides a rare and acrimonious behind-the-scenes glimpse into the intersection of power, influence and money in Trump's Washington.
- The total value of the contribution in question: nearly $6 million, White House sources said Habba told them.
- A senior administration official cautioned that "these are only allegations. We don't know if they're true. This could be a misunderstanding."
- Said another: "POTUS doesn't want to deal with this. Of course, he's concerned. But if there is missing money, this is a big, big problem."
- "This is the ultimate MAGA blood feud," said one Trump world insider with knowledge of the conflict.
The dispute grew out of a friendship between Grenell and Mildon, sources familiar with the conflict say. The men had mutual interests in Venezuela in early 2025, immediately after Trump returned to the White House.
- Grenell, as a Trump special envoy, was advocating for normalizing U.S. relations with Venezuela's leader at the time, Nicolas Maduro.
- Mildon, a Turkish national, had extensive Venezuelan business interests that were threatened by Secretary of State Marco Rubio's hardline pressure campaign targeting Maduro.
In the spring of 2025, Grenell persuaded Mildon to include a multimillion-dollar Kennedy Center donation in a lump-sum $17.6 million payment for a business deal involving a U.S. company, Habba told the president and White House staffers, two sources said.
- Habba's attorneys plan to give the White House documentation — reviewed by Axios — to support her allegations about Grenell soliciting a Kennedy Center donation from Mildon to go to a private company in the spring of 2025.
- "The White House counsel has asked for documents and proof. None has come so far," a White House official said.
Grenell called the statements from Habba to Trump "Absurd. I've never asked for one cent to be sent somewhere else pretending it was for the Kennedy Center, and I've never received any payment from him at all. Make him give proof to what he is saying, not make these absurd allegations."
Friction point:
- When Habba initially leveled her accusations against Grenell, she said the total amount of the Kennedy Center contribution was $17 million, the sources said. But as she learned of the specifics from her husband, she said the amount of the contribution in question was $5.6 million.
- "This has been hard to track because numbers have changed," the White House official said.
Friction point:
Mildon and Habba, the sources said, discovered the issue after their business relationship frayed with Grenell, who lost an internal administration power struggle with Rubio that culminated in the U.S. seizing Maduro on Jan. 3 and taking him to New York City to face narcotics charges.
- In June, Maduro's successor, Delcy Rodriguez, issued an order revoking one of Mildon's company contracts to operate state-owned cement plants in Venezuela, the New York Times reported Monday. A source familiar with the situation told Axios this summer that her action was partly due to the U.S. government's prodding.
- Rodriguez then reversed herself, the Times reported, after learning of Mildon's new relationship with Habba because the Venezuelan leader believed Mildon therefore had Trump's backing.
- Amid the Times' reporting into Mildon's contract, Habba discovered that Mildon's supposed donation never made it to the Kennedy Center, the sources said.
Habba then headed to the White House last Friday to tell the president about the situation.
- "Alina hit the roof" when her husband told her that he hadn't donated the money directly to the Kennedy Center, whose records indicate that Mildon actually owed a $270,000 pledged donation.
- There was no record of Mildon giving anything close to $5.6 million, officials said. Mildon on Tuesday paid the $270,000, records show, to the Kennedy Center.
- But Lisa Dale, who handled finances for the Kennedy Center then, said the only record in her books connected to Mildon showed he owed $270,000. "There was nothing about $6 million," she told Axios. "I would have heard about that."
Habba and Grenell trace their roots to Trump's first administration.
- Grenell was Trump's ambassador to Germany and then his acting director of national intelligence. Habba was Trump's private attorney and briefly was U.S. attorney in New Jersey during this term.
The Kennedy Center has been an ongoing sore spot for Trump, beset by controversy over his efforts to put his name on the building and fundraising woes.
- If Habba's allegations of missing money are true, it could prove particularly galling to Trump, who views the center and its fundraising personally.
- Those who know the president's thinking say he is particularly disapproving of people who use his name or misuse positions he has given them. His dismissal Tuesday of Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle was the latest reminder of that.
- Two top Trump world figures being engaged in such a bitter feud adds to the complexity.
- "Nobody wants to get in the middle of Alina Habba and Ric Grenell going to war," one official said.
Kimmie's Burn Book
Total criminalization
If we're all guilty, then you can't hold me accountable without the risk of exposing your own culpability.
Kimberly Guilfoyle is threatening to bring the Trump family down with her following her shock ouster this week, insiders say.
The White House said Tuesday that Guilfoyle, 57, had been asked to resign as ambassador to Greece after claims that she threatened foreign officials, gave lobbyists privileged access, and tried to solicit payments for political favors.
But the former attorney and Fox News personality, who was previously engaged to the president's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., 48, has no plans to go quietly into the night.
Administration insiders claim Guilfoyle has been keeping a secret "burn book" on the first family and that she's now threatening to tell all when she returns to the U.S., the Daily Mail reports.
Those sources have apparently nicknamed her diary "The Devil Wears MAGA."
"Having her back in America would be a nightmare," one person familiar with the behind-the-scenes furor said.
"Kimberly knows where the bodies are buried. She knows the people, the secrets, the fights, the relationships," they went on. "Nobody wants an angry Kimberly back with nothing to lose."
Another insider told the Mail that "Kimberly knows everything" because she was "way inside that family and political operation for years."
A third added: "Keeping Kimberly happy keeps Kimberly quiet."
It is not clear at this stage what Guilfoyle's alleged diary may contain.
But its contents are apparently explosive enough that allies of the president set out on a desperate last-minute dash to save her job before she was effectively fired on Tuesday.
Her ouster comes after reports that Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were "extremely pissed off" by the snowballing claims of misconduct leveled against Guilfoyle over the past several weeks.
Before she took office, Guilfoyle allegedly asked a MAGA donor to pay off a $100,000 credit card bill in exchange for connecting him with officials who could help with his tax and legal troubles once she was confirmed, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.
Those accusations came after the newspaper's earlier revelations that she told Greek officials during a formal dinner earlier this year that the U.S. could destabilize "any country we want."
She allegedly also used diplomatic engagements to lobby for a private Greek company and gave one of that firm's lobbyists privileged access to senior officials and foreign leaders.
The inspector general at the State Department, where Guilfoyle worked before her departure on Tuesday, has since opened an investigation into those and other allegations, including what's said to have been a hard-partying lifestyle during her diplomatic deployment.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House and the State Department for comment on this story.
Overheard
And the probability that we're not gonna make it just went up - considerably.
Oct 14, 2026
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