eVille Times: elections

Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Oct 9, 2026

HCR

Nobody gave us our rights.

Our founding documents make it clear that we own our rights - they belong to us. Government didn't bestow them on us - they're ours. And the only thing a government can do concerning those rights is to deny them to us.

In an election, we choose to loan our power to representatives, believing they'll do what we hired them to do.

Two years ago, we hired the wrong people, so we have to show up and reclaim that power - our power - our rights.

Refuse to be denied.

Sep 30, 2026

Know The Issues

The official Muckraker's Ballot Guide

Corporate giveaways, climate denialism, naked bigotry, and other bad ideas. By volume, those are the suggestions which will constitute the bulk of Colorado’s November ballot. As I’ve spent the last several weeks writing about, this year marks only the second time in state history that voters have had to contend with as many as 14 initiatives on a single ballot, and most of them are more a product of astroturf than grassroots.

Eight of those 14 were put there by conservative group Advance Colorado — unlike actual citizen-initiated ballot measures, the group is willing to pay a few million dollars a pop for paid canvassers to beg, borrow, and steal their ideas onto the ballot — and another three were put there by anti-trans organization Protect Kids Colorado (which is currently facing a campaign finance complaint for failing to disclose the extent to which it paid canvassers to put its ideas on the ballot). That leaves three.

Initially, my intention was to dedicate this week’s column to those final three, two of which are roundly deserving of a yes vote and the third of which appears to be a toss-up, in that nobody I have spoken to has a particularly strong opinion for or against it. That original intention, however, has come up against two factors which have caused me to reconsider dedicating an entire column to the final three. The first factor? I really don’t think my regular readers are the kind of Coloradans who need to be convinced to support a graduated income tax or school funding. The second factor, though, is a bit more pressing: ballots will begin arriving in the mail within a week. With time short, I have decided to include my recommendations for those remaining three initiatives not as a standalone piece, but as part of this, my final, comprehensive ballot guide.

Without further ado: the 2026 Muckraker Ballot Guide.

Amendment 81 – Law Enforcement Cooperation with ICE

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: League of Women Voters of Colorado, Rocky Mountain Equality, Indivisible Colorado

Links:

Amendment 82 – Right to Natural Gas

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: Conservation Colorado, Colorado Fund for Children & Public Education, Western Resource Advocates, AFSCME, Cobalt Foundation, and Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition

Links:

Amendment 83 – Constitutional Right to Hunt & Fish

Supported by: Advance Colorado; International Order of T. Roosevelt

Opposed by: Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund, Colorado Hunters & Anglers for Sensible Wildlife Conservation, ColoradoWild, Sierra Club Colorado, Western Watersheds Project, Wildlife for All, and more

Links:

Amendment 84 – Mail Ballot Voter ID

Supported by: Advance Colorado, Coalition for American Prosperity & Growth

Opposed by: League of Women Voters of Colorado, Colorado Common Cause, Defend Our Ballots

Links:

Amendment 85 – 8th Grade Reading Level Ballot Questions

Note: There is an ongoing effort specifically to convince Democratic voters that this initiative should be passed. In addition to the arguments which have already been marshaled against it, I’ll encourage you to ask yourself one, single question: if Amendment 85 were in keeping with progressive interests, why would Advance Colorado spend millions of dollars to support it? If you answered, “they wouldn’t,” you are correct. Anyone suggesting otherwise is selling something.

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: League of Women Voters of Colorado, Democratic Party of Colorado, Boulder Progressives

Links:

Amendment 86 – Congressional Redistricting

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: No formal opposition

Links:

Amendment 87 – Graduated Income Tax

Supported by: Conservation Colorado, New Era, Great Education Colorado, Colorado Center on Law and Policy, Colorado Statewide Parent Coalition, COLOR, Colorado Consumer Health Initiative, Colorado Cross Disability Coalition, Bell Policy Center, Colorado Fiscal Institute, Colorado PTA, COWINS, and more

Opposed by: Advance Colorado, Americans for Prosperity Colorado

Links:

Proposition NN – K-12 Public School Funding

Supported by: Colorado Education Association, Colorado Fund for Children & Public Education

Opposed by: Advance Colorado

Links:

Proposition 132 – Penalties for Fentanyl Crimes

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: League of Women Voters of Colorado, Colorado Criminal Justice Reform Coalition, Signal Behavioral Health Network, Indivisible Colorado

Links:

Proposition 133 – Penalties for Human Trafficking of a Minor

Supported by: Protect Kids Colorado

Opposed by: Families Not Politics, Vote Common Sense, Indivisible Colorado

Links:

Proposition 134 – Male and Female Participation in School Sports

Supported by: Protect Kids Colorado, Focus on the Family

Opposed by: Families Not Politics, Inside Out Youth Services, Interfaith Alliance, One Colorado, Planned Parenthood of the Rocky Mountains, Rocky Mountain Equality, Indivisible Colorado, and more

Links:

Proposition 135 – Prohibit Certain Surgeries on Minors

Supported by: Protect Kids Colorado, Focus on the Family

Links:

Proposition 136 – Income Tax Rate Cap

Supported by: Advance Colorado

Opposed by: Vote Common Sense

Links:

Proposition 137 – Designate Sporting Goods Sales Tax Revenue for Conservation

Note: From what I can tell, Proposition 137 sounds like a decent measure. However, there are a great number of fantastically smart people whose opinions I seek on these matters, and none of them have a particularly strong opinion on Proposition 137. Amid a slate of initiatives designed to deface the state, Proposition 137 seems unobjectionable, but also raises questions about placing limitations on our duly-elected legislators’ ability to budget.

Supported by: Conservation Colorado, The Nature Conservancy, Trust for Public Land, Environmental Defense Fund, The Wilderness Society, NRDC Action Fund, Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership, Denver Water and the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce, and more

Opposed by: Clean Energy Action, ColoradoWild, Eco-Integrity Alliance, League of Women Voters of Colorado, and more

Links:

Sep 23, 2026

Bluing The Senate

Win 4 out of the 10, and the Dems own the Senate.

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

The upper chamber is clearly in play. Here’s my assessment of the races.

With the midterm outlook darkening for Republicans, the central question has shifted from the House to the Senate. Can the GOP, which currently has a three-seat majority, hold on to the upper chamber? Here’s my ranking of the seats that are most likely to change hands.

1. North Carolina

North Carolina unsurprisingly tops my rankings. The Tar Heel State leans Republican in federal elections and has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Kay Hagan in 2008. But most statewide races there are close, and the Democrats nominated popular two-term former governor Roy Cooper, who has led in polling all year. Some of that lead — he’s ahead of GOP nominee Michael Whatley by eight points in the RealClearPolitics average — is certainly because Whatley is still largely unknown to about a third of voters. But RCP has Cooper at 49.3 percent, and as long as he remains around the magic 50 percent mark, it will be hard for Whatley to win.

2. Ohio

Democrat Sherrod Brown appears on track to reenter the Senate two years after he was defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno. Throughout his career, Brown has run ahead of the Democratic trend, and polling has consistently put him ahead in this race by three to eight percentage points. Like many states with large agricultural sectors, Ohio seems to be swinging against Republicans this year. Husted is losing badly among independents and not getting the 90-percent-plus support he needs from Republicans to offset that. Brown seems to be in the driver’s seat given his historic strength and a good — maybe great — year for Democrats.

3. Maine

Republican Sen. Susan Collins remains popular with the state’s independents, which explains why she only trails by two points in the RCP average. Her problem is demographic: Collins has survived in this blue state only because she attracts many Democratic voters. She certainly can win again, but Trump’s low popularity will be a barrier to the levels of ticket splitting she needs, and this week brought a bombshell ProPublica report that until 2025 she had been a subject of an FBI bribery investigation (her office strongly denied any impropriety by the senator). The polls here were epically wrong in 2020, when she was projected to lose by a wide margin but won by over eight points. One to watch, but Democrat Troy Jackson is the favorite.

4. Michigan

Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s well-known weaknesses give Republican Mike Rogers a shot to pull off a blue-to-red upset. Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994, but Rogers came close in 2024. The big unknown: Will Michiganders who vote Democratic in other races abandon El-Sayed knowing his defeat could cost the party control of the Senate? It’s a good sign for El-Sayed that his support has been steadily rising since he won his primary on Aug. 4, but the race is far from over.

5. Alaska

It may surprise some readers to see Alaska this high on the list. But here’s another case of a good Democratic candidate combining with a good environment. Former congresswoman Mary Peltola beat a flawed Republican nominee and showed her crossover appeal by running five points ahead of Kamala Harris even when she lost in 2024. The race has not been heavily polled, and the two most recent ones send conflicting signals. Republicans are worried enough, however, to have committed nearly $15 million, a huge sum for a state with such a small population. They wouldn’t be doing that if they thought Sen. Dan Sullivan had reelection in the bag.

6. Texas

Democrat James Talarico has been ahead in the last nine polls, but his lead still averages under three points. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-scarred GOP nominee, is flawed in the extreme. Will Republicans and GOP-leaning independents vote party over person? This is the flip side of the question animating the Michigan race. The fact that Texas is much more Republican than Michigan is Democratic is why I rank it here.

7. Iowa

According to the polling, the race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is a dead heat. Hinson does not seem to be suffering as much GOP voter defection as other nominees, and she trails among independents by a smaller margin than her more endangered colleagues. It’s still a toss-up, but I join most raters in thinking Hinson is likelier to prevail.

8. New Hampshire

Republicans have reason to be excited about New Hampshire, where polls consistently show former senator John E. Sununu running ahead of expectations in this light-blue state. Three respected race raters have moved this one into their toss-up category. The fact remains, however, that New Hampshire is a highly educated, moderate state that has only elected one Republican to the Senate (Kelly Ayotte in the GOP wave of 2010) since President George W. Bush’s first term. It would be extremely strange if Sununu, who lost his reelection bid in 2008 to outgoing senator Jeanne Shaheen, can buck that trend in such a Democratic year.

9. Minnesota

Recent polling shows Minnesota close. The Democratic candidate, Peggy Flanagan, is very progressive, and as the sitting lieutenant governor she can be tied to the benefits-fraud scandal that destroyed Gov. Tim Walz’s career. Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, is a talented campaigner, and one cannot entirely rule out an upset. But it’s very rare for a candidate from a party likely to do poorly in a midterm to capture a seat in the opposing party’s column.

10. Georgia

Georgia rounds out my top 10. After a narrow runoff win in 2021, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has turned himself into a fundraising powerhouse and dark-horse presidential contender. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Mike Collins has had trouble raising money and has been stalked by a series of controversies involving problematic staffers. Georgia is Republican enough that the GOP is spending to try to elevate Collins, but don’t be surprised if he gets cut off — triaged, in political parlance — in October.

Sep 20, 2026

The Midterms Problem

The consensus is that too much Trump is the problem, so obviously, the solution is more Trump.

I guess the point remains:

They're evil AF - thank god they're incompetent too.

Behind Trump’s public confidence, his private view of midterms is sobering

In private, the president has been hearing blunt news from advisers about the GOP’s poor chances in the midterms and has accepted that some of the problem is of his making.

In interviews and speeches, President Donald Trump has maintained that midterm politics don’t affect his decisions on Iran, that the war has been worth the cost, and that he would do it all over again despite Republicans bracing for defeat in November.

But in some private conversation with advisers, Trump has signaled that he understands his decisions on the war have contributed to the especially poor political environment his party faces — making the president more intent on helping Republicans mitigate the expected losses.

Trump in recent weeks has become sober about the gravity of the political situation, listening intently as he is presented with often discouraging polling, according to four people with knowledge of his recent comments, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. That shift has prompted him to take more action on the midterms — pledging to stump for candidates and opening his war chest in competitive races, for example — although it remains to be seen how effectively Republicans can gain ground over the next six weeks.

Trump has long dismissed unfavorable polls, fastening his attention on surveys that present him in an artificially positive light. He often says that negative surveys are fake and not to be believed. Increasingly, however, he has accepted his team’s polling that shows his and his party’s poor standing with voters, his advisers say.

Several of Trump’s advisers said they had become “increasingly blunt” with him, as one put it, and that in recent weeks he was listening to them about the electoral reality the GOP faces. It didn’t always translate to a good mood for Trump.

The president, who faces his lowest approval rating of his second term, has focused much of his attention this year on a war with Iran that has sharply raised oil prices and on construction projects in Washington to cement his legacy. That came even as he failed to meaningfully lower prices, which he pledged to do while he campaigned in 2024.

“He definitely feels like some of his decisions have led to the dynamics where he’s unpopular and things aren’t looking great for the midterms,” one of the people said.

A second person who confirmed Trump has subtly acknowledged some degree of responsibility for the situation noted that he has made similar remarks in public.

Another person in frequent communication with Trump about the midterms, however, pushed back on the notion that he has accepted any blame, saying he feels strongly that his not being on the ballot this year is the biggest problem the GOP faces.

For months, Trump publicly expressed a lack of concern about political conditions, commenting about how the party in power typically loses the midterms regardless of other factors, and insisting that voters’ economic frustration wouldn’t affect his decision-making on the war.

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing,” Trump said in May, when asked whether voters’ pocketbook concerns would push him to a deal with Iran. “We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, that’s all. That’s the only thing that motivates me.”

Publicly, Trump continues to insist that there’s no reason for voters to be disillusioned with him. On Wednesday at a rally in North Carolina, he conceded that Americans were paying higher gas prices because of the war in Iran, but argued the cost was justified. “It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” he said.

Trump, to be sure, has not ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the conflict with Iran. But he has become more interested in staving off the worst-case scenarios for Republicans this fall, hoping he can mobilize his base to offset increased Democratic enthusiasm.

The blunt talk from his team coincided with Trump’s approval of spending plans from his aligned super PACs, disbursements that now total roughly $140 million. Republican candidates and operatives had grown concerned in recent months that Trump was sitting on his large reserve of campaign cash.

“President Trump has always been committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. “President Trump will continue to draw a sharp contrast with his commonsense agenda and the radical Democrats in Congress.”

Trump has taken a particular interest in the White House’s midterm messaging. As he prepared to depart the White House for the convention in Dallas last week, the president screened a series of ads from the Oval Office — videos that would play during the convention, as well as television ads slated to be aired by his aligned super PACs, one of the people said. Trump ticked off his feedback on video after video for adjustments to be made.

“What do you think?” Trump asked those in the room about some of the videos. “Isn’t it great?”

And after months of his advisers saying that Trump was on the verge of incorporating weekly domestic travel into his 2026 schedule, Trump has now pledged to make personal appearances to campaign in 35 competitive races in key swing states. Trump and his team have said midterm campaign travel will pick up in frequency in October, though his advisers have acknowledged that they aren’t sure how many trips he actually will make, despite having drafted a travel schedule for him.

Trump has insisted to his aides that he wants to “fight like hell until Election Day,” one of the people with knowledge of his thinking said.

On his Wednesday visit to North Carolina, he campaigned for GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman who continues to lag in his race in a state Trump won three times.

He is unlikely to make a campaign stop next week, as he is scheduled to travel to New York on Monday and Tuesday for the United Nations General Assembly and then host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington for a state visit on Wednesday and Thursday.

Sep 16, 2026

Ossoff In Athens

Jon Ossoff seems like the real thing. There's humanity in him that comes through, even though he's usually pretty straight-faced and a bit earnest. He speaks in real terms about real issues, and I think it's pretty damned great.

Sep 15, 2026

Daniella

Americans are not to be ruled by force.

Sep 13, 2026

Aaron Parnas

Sep 12, 2026

Talarico v Paxton

There are too many pedophile protectors in Congress already.

Aug 7, 2026

Another One Bites The Dust

And still, Trump-backed Republicans have fared pretty well so far.

GOP Rep. Andy Ogles ousted in Tennessee primary

His loss makes him the second Donald Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a primary this week.

Tennessee GOP Rep. Andy Ogles was ousted by a Republican challenger on Thursday, a blow to President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson who tried to boost his campaign in the final days.

Former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher won the GOP primary for the 5th District after outraising Ogles, receiving a late endorsement from GOP Gov. Bill Lee and seeing a flood of outside money on his behalf from a renewable energy super PAC.

What the hell's up with a Republican getting help from Green Energy?

Ultimately, that spending, coupled with a newly redrawn district that forced Ogles to reach new voters, helped end his reelection bid. Ogles has also faced a number of controversies since he was first elected in 2022.

He deleted a homophobic social media post that was denounced by members of his own party in June, and he drew severe backlash for another post in which he said “Muslims don’t belong in American society.” In 2024, the FBI searched Ogles’ phone during an investigation into campaign finance records, which came after a watchdog group filed an ethics complaint into his use of campaign funds. And in 2023, he faced scrutiny for false claims about his resume.

Ogles’ loss makes him the second Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a primary this week, after a Michigan House candidate who had the president’s backing fell to a challenger who had already dropped out.

Hatcher will face the Democratic mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, Chaz Molder, in November. Molder has posted strong fundraising hauls, while Hatcher will basically be starting from scratch.

But Republicans redrew the seat to favor Trump by 23 points after the Supreme Court severely limited the Voting Rights Act earlier this year, leaving Hatcher as the front-runner.

All the Trump-Backed Candidates Who Have Lost Races in 2026

President Donald Trump's endorsement has remained one of the Republican Party's most sought-after political prizes during the 2026 election cycle, helping the vast majority of his preferred candidates secure victories in GOP primaries.

However, his winning streak suffered a setback on Thursday when Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee lost the Republican primary for the state's newly redrawn 5th Congressional District.

During Trump's first term, from 2017 to 2021, Ballotpedia tracked 305 endorsements. In 2026 alone, the president has made 312 primary endorsements, with 97 percent of his endorsed candidates winning their primaries through early July, according to the elections tracker.

Ogles lost to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher despite receiving Trump's endorsement, becoming one of only a small number of candidates backed by the president to lose at the ballot box this year.

Trump-Backed Losses in 2026

Andy Ogles
Ogles entered the race with Trump's support after establishing himself as one of the president's closest allies in Congress. Trump has described the Tennessee congressman as "a Conservative Warrior."

Hatcher, who was backed by Tennessee Governor Bill Lee, ultimately prevailed in the closely watched contest following the state's congressional redistricting.

Amir Hassan
Two days before Ogles' defeat, Trump-backed congressional candidate Amir Hassan lost the Republican primary in Michigan's 8th District to Thomas J. Smith.

The result surprised many observers because Smith had suspended his campaign weeks before Election Day but remained on the ballot, ultimately winning with 50.4 percent of the vote. Hassan, who had received Trump's endorsement in July, finished well behind Smith with 33.2 percent.

The upset represented one of the most unexpected defeats for a Trump-endorsed House candidate this cycle.

Phil Berger
North Carolina Senate leader Phil Berger suffered one of the earliest high-profile defeats of the 2026 primary season when he lost the Republican nomination for the state's 26th Senate District to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

Berger has been one of the state's most influential Republican lawmakers for more than a decade.

Burt Jones
Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones lost the Republican gubernatorial runoff in June, a significant setback for the president in a contest viewed as a test of his influence in the battleground state.

Brenda Wilson
Brenda Wilson, a Vigo County Council member, ran for election to the Indiana Senate to represent District 38 but lost in the Republican primary on May 5.

Bruce Borders
Fellow Indiana Republican Bruce Borders, who has held his seat in the state's House of Representative since 2014, also failed to win renomination.

The longtime state representative, who previously served in the Indiana House from 2004 to 2012, was another early casualty among Trump's endorsed candidates.

Sid Miller
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller's primary loss was notable because relatively few statewide incumbents backed by Trump have failed to secure another nomination. Miller has served in the role since 2015.

Representative Randy Feenstra of Iowa lost the state's GOP gubernatorial primary in a contest that drew attention as a test of competing Republican factions.

Pamela Evette
While South Carolina Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette narrowly finished first in the state's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 9, she lost the runoff two weeks later—securing 31.4 percent of the vote to state Attorney General Alan Wilson's 68.6 percent.

Trump had initially endorsed Evette ahead of the primary, but he later issued a dual endorsement for Wilson days before the runoff.

Jon Maples
Earlier this year, Jon Maples ran in a special election to represent District 87—home to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate—in the Florida House of Representatives. Though he won the primary with more than 80 percent of the vote, he ultimately lost the general election by 2.4 percentage points to Democrat Emily Gregory.

Maples is now running in the regular election for District 87, with the Republican primary scheduled for August 18. If he wins, he and Gregory would again face off in November's general election.

Trump's Endorsement Record Remains Strong
Trump has endorsed hundreds of candidates running for congressional, statewide and legislative offices this cycle, and the losses remain the exception rather than the rule.

Still, Ogles' defeat adds another name to the short list of candidates who were unable to convert the president's backing into a nomination victory, providing a reminder that even the Republican Party's most influential endorsement is not a guarantee of success.

Aug 5, 2026

About Last Night

When even Van Jones sees it, you have to know something is afoot. Of course, when was the last time that guy got anything right?

But hey - the times they are a-changin'.

2026 election results

The midterm elections in November will determine control of both chambers of Congress and will also see the election of dozens of governors and other state and local offices. Before then, voters must choose nominees for each of these offices, making their picks in primary elections throughout the spring and summer in all 50 states.

Follow our coverage of every election.

Jul 27, 2026

Rich

Please let us do this thing we don't know how to do - and even if we did, we don't have time to get it done - please.

Overheard

Let's be clear on this. If Trump decides to run in 2028 - even if he runs unopposed as either a Republican or an Independent - he loses by default.

Every vote cast for Trump can be disregarded, because votes for an ineligible candidate don't count. And there's a high probability that enough states will keep him off the ballot to preclude him from getting the Electoral Votes he'd need to win anyway.

So say it - proud and out loud.

Donald Trump will leave office at noon on January 20, 2029.

Jul 24, 2026

The GOP Clown Car

Knives are out for Vance in the GOP. His allies say it’s a coordinated ‘op.’

The vice president has faced a barrage of attacks recently that are unusual for their intensity and how early in the political calendar they are taking place.

As JD Vance prepares to make a decision about his 2028 plans, the vice president is facing a barrage of online attacks from within his party, criticism his allies say appears to be part of a coordinated attempt to poison the well for him politically.

His detractors have adopted the “Never Vance” slogan and flooded social media, especially over the past week, with attacks including claims that Vance is “unfit” to be vice president due to his efforts to negotiate a peace deal with Iran. They have asserted, without evidence, that Vance is making policy decisions not supported by President Donald Trump. They have likened him to former president Barack Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).

The sustained public hostility from Vance’s own side of the aisle is unlike that faced by other vice presidents in decades, both in intensity and in the early timing — two years before the party will choose its next presidential nominee. The unusual nature is a product of the central role that social media plays in today’s political discourse, as well as the high stakes as Republicans prepare to select a new standard-bearer after Trump, Vance allies and critics say.

Vance’s political team remains dismissive of the social media onslaught and its impact on Republican voters, believing that many of the attacks are not organic, a close ally of the vice president told The Washington Post — a sentiment echoed by two other people with knowledge of Vance’s strategy. The ally and other advisers spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Vance’s allies are keenly aware of and monitoring the online attacks, but his team says the criticism sends a signal to the conservative base that establishment Republicans and opponents they label as neoconservatives hate Vance. That, they say, could ultimately strengthen his standing in a GOP primary.

“Loud Washington establishment voices form an online cacophony,” said Steve Cortes, a conservative commentator supportive of Vance, “but they do not remotely represent the consensus views of Republican voters.”

Vance, whose brand of politics is populist and skeptical of foreign wars, has remained the front-runner in 2028 Republican primary polling. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the favorite of many more traditional, business-minded Republicans, has gained ground in recent months, however, although Rubio has insisted he will support Vance if he runs.

The knives have long been out for Vance within the GOP, since before Trump selected him as his running mate. At the time, hawkish donors and conservative media personalities lobbied for Trump to reject Vance in favor of Rubio or Doug Burgum, now secretary of the interior.

Polling of Republican voters shows Vance’s favorability within the party as roughly on par with Trump’s.

Intense criticism from some Republicans, largely over Vance’s foreign policy views, has ebbed and flowed since the start of the second Trump term. The criticism reached a first peak in the fall as neoconservatives and pro-Israel activists portrayed Vance as antisemitic for sympathizing with figures who expressed skepticism over the U.S. relationship with Israel. More recently, attacks ticked up again after Vance sat for a nearly three-hour interview July 15 on Joe Rogan’s widely watched podcast.

During the show, Vance described himself as a “reasonable moderate” in the debate over the U.S.-Israel relationship. He also cited a recent Time report about an online pro-Israel influence operation run by a former Trump campaign official, through which Vance said he was being attacked “in dishonest ways” by paid influencers.

“You know, my response to that is, ‘Well, go to hell,’” Vance told Rogan. “I’m going to do what I have to do for the American people. I represent Americans first, and that’s the way that I’ve tried to do this job.”

Pro-Israel conservatives erupted. A Washington Post analysis of conservative influencers’ posts on X found that criticism of Vance spiked immediately after his appearance on Rogan’s podcast.

Critical posts poured in from prominent commentators including Ben Shapiro, Marc Thiessen and Batya Ungar-Sargon, as well as online right-wing influencers and little-known X users whose anti-Vance posts quickly gained traction. Some of the users who pledged to oppose Vance and support Rubio in 2028 had profiles that strongly suggested they aren’t American voters and are based in other countries.

It was “obvious to anyone with an IQ above 70″ that the barrage of attacks has been “totally inauthentic and probably coordinated to a certain extent,” the close Vance ally said.

The upsurge in online criticism “hasn’t been reflected in any data correlating with Vance’s image among GOP voters, which currently tracks President Trump’s image to a T,” the person said. “If it were organic, authentic or effective,” Vance’s favorability rating with Republican voters would have cratered over the past nine months, since the intense online criticism first peaked, the person said. “And that just hasn’t happened.”

A spokesperson for the vice president said Vance’s only focus is “fighting for the president’s agenda and delivering wins for the American people,” and that he is not concerned with social media.

Vance allies have pushed back publicly against some of the attacks, at times calling attention to common language used among those posting insults.

Jon Schweppe, a Vance supporter and senior adviser at the American Principles Project, who worked for Trump’s Federal Trade Commission until earlier this year, posted a chart on X last week that showed the vice president’s favorability among Republicans had remained steady despite an “anti-Vance op.” His post quickly received dozens of replies from accounts that didn’t follow him — all attacking Vance. Schweppe described the response as curious, since his post had not been shared by any high-follower accounts.

“Primary season — I guess it’s beginning before the midterms this year,” Schweppe said, adding that Vance’s detractors are “trying to create a divide and separate him from the president.”

“There’s going to be folks within the party structure, within the influencer structure, who are going to try to knock him down a few pegs in hope that a challenger can emerge to beat him, and that’s just what we’re seeing,” Schweppe said. “But it’s absolutely organized.”

The intense focus on the vice president is unusual. Trump’s first vice president, Mike Pence, didn’t face intense backlash from Republicans until the final weeks of his term, as the president and his supporters blamed Pence for failing to act to overturn the 2020 election results. Before that, Pence had been widely liked by Republicans, with few prominent conservatives raising their heads to harshly criticize him.

For a significant stretch of her vice presidency, Kamala Harris faced a version of the succession anxiety now surrounding Vance. Democratic donors, strategists and commentators questioned whether her low favorability ratings, uneven political performance and widely reported management problems left her prepared to become president — an especially consequential concern given President Joe Biden’s age.

But there are significant differences: Vance is confronting a public, ideological revolt from prominent figures within the conservative coalition. The criticism of Harris, by contrast, generally was framed around competence and electability with jabs at what critics considered misstatements and gaffes. Few major Democratic figures publicly demanded that Biden remove her.

Marc Short, who served as chief of staff to Pence in the White House, acknowledged that the attacks against Vance are far more intense than what Pence endured for nearly four years in office — at least until Trump turned against him at the end of his term.

Pence, however, was adamant throughout that term not to show any distance between himself and Trump, even to staff or other Cabinet officials, Short said. Vance has at times signaled a different perspective regarding the war with Iran, he noted.

Trump has confirmed that Vance is “philosophically a little bit different” than him on Iran, and “maybe less enthusiastic about going” to war, although Vance has publicly expressed support for Trump’s decisions.

“I think that there’s been a difference in the way that the current team has made clear their policy differences,” Short said. “So I think that does create more scrutiny when you do that.”

The Republican primary in 2028 may not be as large and unwieldy as the Democratic field, but political observers on both sides of the aisle say that doesn’t mean it won’t be as compelling.

For months, speculation has been building over who will inherit the Republican mantle after President Trump leaves office. The conversation has only intensified as Trump has quietly asked allies at dinners and closed-door meetings whom they prefer.

While it’s still early, here are our rankings for the Republican nomination.

JD Vance

The vice president, for now at least, is the heir apparent to Trump.

Most recently, he took the lead role in negotiations on a long-term peace deal with Iran that would curb that country’s nuclear ambitions. It was a war Vance was hesitant to have, allies have said, and the negotiations in recent days have been overcome by new fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

Last month, Vance released a new book, “Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith,” and subsequently appeared in a string of interviews further boosting his profile.

Vance remains the front-runner in all of the early polls, with one survey from Echelon Insights showing him leading Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 27 points. That, at least temporarily, put to rest any speculation that Rubio is the favorite among Republicans.

But it remains to be seen how the on-again, off-again war in Iran and inflation will translate in the 2028 election and how Vance will be tethered to them.

“There are a lot of factors,” one Republican strategist said. “How the war plays out, what the economy looks like in a couple of years, what the end of the Trump administration looks like, but also who Trump wants to carry his legacy.”

Marco Rubio

As secretary of State, Rubio has become one of the administration’s prominent voices on foreign policy, including the war in Iran and the U.S. military operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

But his stature in the administration and within the party has grown exponentially, and some say that would work in his favor if he chooses to launch a 2028 presidential bid.

While polling indicates Vance is on top of the field, there are some Republicans who say the secretary of State will emerge as the front-runner in due course, particularly for those who say the party will move away from the MAGA movement when the Trump administration ends.

“Certainly it feels like Marco is situated to have the best chance of victory come 2028, but here’s the question I ask: What’s the nomination worth?” one Trump ally said. “If the Democrats nominate a noncrazy, if they nominate a centrist, it may be tough for us after four years of Trump.”

Republican strategist Susan Del Percio agreed with that assessment.

“Rubio becomes the strongest candidate because people remember him before he was secretary of State, and while he has to be loyal to Trump, he has a record that precedes that,” she said.

Ted Cruz

The Texas senator has been eyeing the presidency since the 2016 race, and some say he could be a good alternative for Republicans who want something different from Vance and Rubio.

Since his first White House run, Cruz has built an impressive governing resume including serving as chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, where he has helped shape Republican policy on artificial intelligence and transportation issues.

He has also built a broader audience through his popular podcast, “Verdict,” providing him with a direct pipeline to his listeners across the country.

Still, Del Percio and other Republicans say while Cruz could at the very least launch an exploratory committee, it’s unlikely he’ll gain much traction.

“I don’t see it happening now, but it doesn’t mean it can’t,” Del Percio said.

Ron DeSantis

After losing the 2024 presidential campaign, the Florida governor lost some political capital. But he has been quietly building a story he could tell on the campaign trail if he does make another bid for the White House.

“Who took a state that had more Democrats than Republicans by 300,000 when he got elected and now has 1.5 million more Republicans? Who had a state that had a trillion-dollar economy and now has $1.8 trillion?” DeSantis said at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.

Asked at the conference if he would run in 2028, the governor replied, “You never know.”

But Republicans say the term-limited governor, who leaves office in January, won’t have a platform to command attention, so “he’s going to have to get creative,” one strategist said.

Donald Trump Jr.

While most Republicans say 2028 is really a race about two men — Vance and Rubio — early polls consistently show Trump’s eldest son in the top five of Republican contenders. And Republicans acknowledge that it makes sense.

“It’s still very much Trump’s party and voters want someone who is most like Trump, and so why not his own blood?” one strategist said. “You can’t dismiss him.”

Donald Trump Jr. has repeatedly said he has no plans to run in 2028, but he does remain among the most influential voices in the MAGA movement through both endorsements and his loud megaphone on social media.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

The Arkansas governor and former White House press secretary has been seen for some time as a presidential hopeful — particularly by those who would like to see a woman at the top of the ticket.

Republicans say she can point to her education overhaul in Arkansas that increased pay for teachers, as well as her income tax cuts in her state.

But Sanders has been hesitant to say she’s interested in wading into 2028 waters, saying she is focused on her state.

Asked by Politico about the 2028 race, she said, “It would be a mistake to focus on ’28 until we get finished with the ’26 midterms.”