Belle

Paying more and getting less.

Americans feel worse about their economic outlook than they have since 1952.

Belle

It's amazing - over a million Americans have been caught red-handed committing fraud, but I guess the supremely sympathetic Trump DOJ just couldn't bring themselves to indict anybody for it?

Won't wonders never cease.

Belle

She references Whirlpool CEO Mark Bitzer using the phrase "other recessionary periods" like the economy is already in recession.

Mark Zandi warns America is ‘close to the edge’ with 40% recession risk — and says US stocks are detached from reality

With stocks soaring to fresh highs, recession may be the last thing on investors’ minds. But according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, America is uncomfortably close to one.

In a recent interview with TheStreet, Zandi said the odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are now sitting at 40%.

“Just for context, in a typical economy, what economists would call the unconditional probability of recession is closer to 15%,” he said. “So, 40% is very elevated, very uncomfortable — it gives you a sense of how close I think things are to the edge here.”

Zandi’s warning came even after a better-than-expected jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% (2).

But the headline number didn’t change his view.

“The labor market is still a vulnerability in the economy, still very soft,” he said, adding that recession risks remain “very high.”

Zandi said businesses remain reluctant to hire, with hiring rates “still very low across most industries.” Hours worked also remain depressed, which Zandi said is “kind of consistent with what you’d see in a recession.”

He also pointed to falling labor-force participation — meaning fewer people are actively working or looking for work — as a warning sign. If participation had stayed steady over the past year, Zandi said, the unemployment rate would be closer to 5%.

At the same time, inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Zandi said price pressures are picking up because of the Iran war, higher energy prices, tariffs and other factors — and that is eating into household purchasing power.

“Real disposable income — that’s after tax, after accounting for inflation — is no higher today than it was a year ago,” he said. “So, there’s been no growth in purchasing power, and that’s going to get worse and start declining.”

That pressure is already showing up in the choices consumers are making.

Zandi noted that wealthy households are drawing down savings to supplement their purchasing power and maintain spending. But lower- and middle-income households don’t have the same cushion.

“They’re living more paycheck to paycheck,” he said.

If Americans have to put more of their paychecks into the gas tank, he warned, they have less left over for everything else — from gym memberships to food choices.

“You’re gonna have to trade down. You can’t have beef — you gotta have chicken,” he said.

Stocks are not the economy

Meanwhile, Wall Street has been telling a very different story. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have recently climbed to fresh highs.

To Zandi, that disconnect is part of the problem.

“The stock market’s not the economy,” he said. “In my 36 years as a professional economist, the stock market’s never been more disjointed from the economy.”

He attributed much of the market’s strength to artificial intelligence, especially large tech companies.

“What’s driving the stock market train is these big hyperscalers and chip companies,” he said, adding that the AI trade “runs on its own dynamic” and “has nothing to do with the economy.”

Zandi also said investors appear to be betting that President Donald Trump will pivot if the economy or markets start to wobble.

“Stock investors are looking at the president, the president’s looking at the stock market,” he said. “That doesn’t feel like a stable… equilibrium — it’s kind of like a hall of mirrors.”

⬆︎ That's a big red flag - if you're expected Trump to behave like a normal rational human being, you're in for a rude surprise.

Zandi also warned that valuations are stretched.

“Valuations are awfully high,” he said, noting that price-to-earnings multiples are near historic highs, “except for perhaps during the internet bubble, which didn’t end so well.”

Zandi isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has said that the market “feels exactly like 1999.”

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now holds $397.4 billion in cash — a record amount that many investors interpret as a signal of caution in an expensive market (3).

To be sure, markets are inherently volatile, and no forecast is guaranteed. But with valuations stretched and recession risk elevated, now may be a good time to consider how to diversify beyond traditional stocks.

Belle

Belle

Why does Trump not want the records of his actions and activities preserved according to the law?

Belle On Iran

6 dead. 20 wounded. No prep. No fortification. Sittin' ducks.

Five minutes. Just gimme five minutes in a locked room with that prick.

Belle

The "Thucydides Trap" is a political theory popularized by Graham Allison describing the high risk of war when a rising power (eg: China) threatens to displace an established ruling power (eg: US).

Named after the ancient Greek historian who observed that the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta made the Peloponnesian War inevitable, this dynamic suggests that structural tension - rather than sheer accident - makes conflict likely, as the established power takes defensive actions and the rising power demands recognition.

Belle

Again - everybody say it with me:

It's the economy, stupid

Belle

Personal Consumption Expenditure: +3.89%

            Consumer Price Index: +3.93%

            Annualized Inflation: +5.00%

• Everything Trump touches turns to shit
• Trump has said publicly that he doesn't think about the effect on you, or me, or anybody, or anything else when he makes "decisions" about his stupid little war with Iran.

Today's Belle

Means lift them up

Memes keep you down

Today's Belle

HR 1761

Donald J Trump $250 Bill Act

HR 3432

TDS Research Act

HR 1395

Trump's Birthday and Flag Day Holiday Establishment Act

Hr 691

Renaming Washington Dulles Airport to The Donald J Trump Airport

HR 5766

The President Donald J Trump Peace Prize Act

HR 792

Adding the figure of President Donald Trump to Mount Rushmore 

Today's Belle

Politicians are telling us not to trust politicians because politicians took our money and lost it, so let's just take a politician's word for it that the politicians want to do what's best for us.

Removing the Social Security Tax Cap

closes future deficits by more than 70%.

Making it progressive

funds the system

FOREVER

Today's Belle

We're seeing the Balkanization of the entire world.

Welcome to the new old world order, and the dawning of the age of the Plutocratic Fiefdom, where the Global Poker Game is dominated by rank amateurs and Dunning-Kruger dilettantes.

Today's Belle

"Not any time soon."

Today's Belle

You fight a war in order to change the landscape - to make things more conducive to furthering your policy objectives.

Trump has handed Iran the perfect means to raise their stature on the world stage, prove their potential to exert influence, and show us all that as long as we're dependent on the largesse of the Dirty Fuels Cartel, we will never be free from the grip of whoever chooses to be the biggest asshole.

We've been watching Iran beat Trump like a rug at spring cleaning, and his biggest failure may be that he's got a fair bunch of people in the world thinking that Iran has somehow become the good guys.

NO MATTER WHAT,

NOTHING'S GOING TO

MAKE ME FORGET

ABOUT THE EPSTEIN FILES.

Today's Belle

China sees an opportunity to fill the void being created by Trump's latest grandiose fuck up.

Today's Belle

When Republicans are in charge, you have to know government isn't going to work - at least it's not going to work for the 95% of us who have to worry about paying the mortgage and financing silly little incidentals like food and gas and the orthodontist.

These guys could fuck up a 1-car parade, and that's what their whole project is about - they're doing it on purpose.

But then, along comes Donald - the ultimate Mr Fuckup - who's going to fuck up the fuck up.

Somebody must have put a bug in his ear about 2nd-term presidents turning to foreign policy, so that fuckin' idiot decided to go out and conquer the middle east - probably at the behest of Putin and the other players in the Dirty Fuels Cartel.

And what do you and I get? 4-dollar gas, more upward pressure on food prices, and a growing probability that we're going to tip into a really nasty recession this winter.

So much winning.

And right now, it all stems from the Douchebag-In-Chief needing to burn the joint down in order to satisfy his ego, and hide his crimes.

Here's Belle with a rundown on the "war plans".

BTW - seems like now would be a good time to pivot away from oil, and start a concerted effort to spin up wind and solar and other alternatives. But, oops - it seems Republicans have shit-canned all the incentives and subsidies for green energy.

Ya don't think there might be a connection there, do ya?

Today's Belle

Low GDP Growth, plus High Unemployment, plus Rising Prices is the formula for Stagflation.

Targets:

• GDP Growth    2%
• Unemployment  4%
• Inflation     2% 

Currently:

• GDP Growth    0.7%
• Unemployment  4.4% 
• Inflation     2.5%

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projects inflation to hit 4.2% for the year.

Consumer Confidence is dropping.

Consumer Expectation is dropping.

Today's Belle

A full course meal of TACO, chicken and waffles, and crow.

More Uh-Oh

UBS downgrades the U.S. stock market. Here’s what has the investment bank worried

• UBS downgraded U.S. equities, saying factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.
• The dollar risk is a central concern as the firm sees “asymmetric structural downside risks” to the greenback.
• Another pillar of U.S. stock strength — corporate buybacks — is also losing its edge, the bank said.

UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.

Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

The dollar risk is a central concern, Garthwaite wrote. UBS forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by the end of the first quarter and sees “asymmetric structural downside risks” to the greenback. Historically, when the dollar’s trade-weighted index falls 10%, U.S. equities underperform by roughly 4% in unhedged terms, according to the bank.

Foreign markets are trouncing the U.S. this year as a weaker dollar and cheaper valuations draw capital overseas. The MSCI World ex-US index has gained about 8% in 2026, compared with the little changed performance for the S&P 500. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has rallied 17% year to date, while the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 7%, underscoring a sharp rotation away from American equities. U.S. stocks struggled again Friday as investors fretted over the potential downsides of the artificial intelligence build-out and persistent inflation at home.

Another pillar of U.S. stock strength — corporate buybacks — is also losing its edge, the bank said. The buyback yield in the U.S. is now only roughly on par with global peers, eroding what had been a key support for earnings per share growth and investor flows, UBS said. The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks in the U.S. is now about half that of Europe, the bank said.

“The buybacks yield is no longer exceptional and this had been an important driver of funds flow, EPS and valuation,” Garthwaite wrote.

Valuations add to the unease. UBS calculates that the sector-adjusted price-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is 35% above international peers, versus an average premium of about 4% since 2010. Roughly 60% of sectors trade not only at higher multiples than their global counterparts but also above their own historical premium, the strategist wrote.

Policy volatility under President Donald Trump is another headwind. This year has brought shifts in tariff policy, proposals to cap credit card interest rates, potential limits on private equity investment in housing, renewed scrutiny of drug pricing, and suggestions to curb dividends and buybacks for defense companies, UBS said.

Still, the noted strategist stopped short of turning outright bearish. Garthwaite said the U.S. economy and equities tend to benefit more than peers when markets are in the early phases of a potential bubble. The bank also expects artificial intelligence adoption to outpace most other major regions, with the possible exception of China, helping sustain earnings growth across key industries.

UBS strategist Sean Simonds set a year-end target of 7,500 for the S&P 500, compared with an average forecast of 7,629 among 14 top strategists, according to CNBC Pro’s strategist survey.

everything Trump touches

turns to shit