Ukraine Is The Key

Help Ukraine beat Putin

Which weakens Iran

Which weakens Hamas and the Houthis

Which removes a fair part of Netanyahu's rationale for holding power

Which eases tensions across the board in the middle east

All of which tells Xi he'd better watch his ass.

Ukraine

Ukraine will win this war.

And the United States will continue to stand beside them every step of the way. pic.twitter.com/Sb3c08eC6s

— President Biden (@POTUS) September 29, 2024

This is potentially a big time shift. Biden's language before has always been "We'll help Ukraine defend itself...".

Now he's talking about winning.

Joe Biden's Parting Gift to Ukraine

President Joe Biden announced $8 billion in military assistance to Ukraine last Thursday, in what may well be the last package he greenlights before he leaves office and this year's presidential election in November.

This is the 66th equipment package Biden's administration has provided to Ukraine and is part of the outgoing president's push to continue to send weapons to Kyiv amid debate in U.S. politics about how much money the country should continue to spend on helping its ally in its ongoing war against Russia.

It came before the end of the U.S. fiscal year on Monday, September 30, when $5.9 billion in funding for Ukraine was set to expire.

Biden said he had authorized $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the president to transfer defense money from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to foreign countries without the need for congressional approval for each transfer.

A further $2.4 billion has been allocated through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with more air defense, unmanned aerial systems, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine's defense industry.

The president, who will leave office in January after stepping down from the presidential race in late July, said on Thursday: "Through these actions, my message is clear: The United States will provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war."

Feryal Cherif, the director of the International Relations Program at California's Loyola Marymount University, told Newsweek that "in general, Biden's legacy will be a function of our presidential election and the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian war."

It comes amid uncertainty over how, and to what capacity, America's support for Kyiv will continue after the election, as former President Donald Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, has been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who last week was in the U.S. to present his "victory plan" in winning the war.

After Trump met with Zelensky last Friday, he told reporters: "We have a very good relationship. I also have a very good relationship with [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin and you know, I think if we win, we're going to get it resolved very quickly."

During the meeting at Trump Tower in Manhattan, Zelensky responded to a comment made about the former president's relationship with Putin, saying: "I hope we have more good relations with us."

"It takes two to tango and we will," the former president replied.

Just a few days before this, on Wednesday, Trump told a campaign rally in North Carolina: "We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky."

He added: "Ukraine is gone. It's not Ukraine anymore. Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now."

The Ukrainian president and Trump's running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have recently exchanged words after Zelensky criticized Vance's ideas on how to end the war, calling him "too radical."

During an interview on the Shawn Ryan Show podcast on September 11, Vance said, "Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine—it doesn't join NATO, it doesn't join some of these allied institutions. That is what the deal is ultimately going to look something like."

After Zelensky's criticism, Vance responded by saying he "does not appreciate" the Ukrainian president "telling the American taxpayer what they oughta do," adding: "He [Zelensky] oughta say thank you to the American taxpayer."

Cherif, also an associate professor of political science at Loyola Marymount University, told Newsweek that if Trump "wins the election, there is a good chance that President Zelensky will be pressured to negotiate a peace deal with Russia that involves the loss of territory."

If this happens, folks may think it could have been achieved earlier in the war, saving the U.S. billions of dollars and leaving Biden with a "foreign policy failure," Cherif added.

Newsweek has contacted Biden's team, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment. Newsweek has also contacted Trump's team for comment.

In total, as of September 26, the U.S. has committed more than $59.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration.

Before Biden stepped down as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, he debated Trump in a CNN-hosted debate in June. When it came to the Russia-Ukraine war, Biden justified America's support for Ukraine by saying that Putin wants to "restore his Soviet Empire."

If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins the election she will "likely continue to support Ukraine," Cherif said.

She added: "Harris' presidency is likely to find itself in a position where many Americans feel that, one, the country is hemorrhaging money to a foreign war it cannot win or it finds too costly to win, and two, with the territorial stalemate, we could have arrived at this same outcome, with much less money spent, years ago. Unless the trajectory of the war radically changes, Ukraine is likely to be seen as a foreign policy failure for Biden and Harris."

Newsweek has contacted Harris' team, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment.

Cherif said she believes Harris can "seek to mainstream a new narrative about the war" by "encouraging Ukraine to accept the losses, and with this aid package, frame its continued commitment to containing Russia."

She added: "If they can advance a narrative that we stood up to aggression but now is the time to build strong borders, it could mediate some of the blowback on Biden's legacy and a would-be Harris presidency."

Cherif went on to stress the idea that "defending Ukraine is, not so much the right thing to do but, a vital, long-term American national security issue."

Last week, Harris slammed suggestions that Ukraine should concede territory to Moscow for the sake of peace and said: "They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender. The United States supports Ukraine not out of charity, but because it's in our strategic interest."

During Zelensky's trip to the U.S. last week, Harris told him that her support for Kyiv's defense is "unwavering."

The vice president said: "I have been proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine, and I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war, to be safe, secure and prosperous. The United States must continue to fulfill our long-standing role of global leadership."

A July poll carried out by the Pew Research Center found that 63 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning people believe the U.S. has a responsibility to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, while only 36 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning folks say the same. This was based on answers from 9,424 adults who were surveyed between July 1 and 7. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

Ukraine

Russian Personnel Losses Break 600,000 Mark, Says Ukraine

Moscow’s 2022 invasion started with a 100,000-strong invasion force, and it is currently losing more than a thousand troops on the front daily amidst hostilities on multiple fronts.

Russia’s personnel losses during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian estimations, have broken the 600,000 mark.

According to an update on Monday by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Russia lost 600,470 military personnel between Feb. 24, 2022, and Aug. 19, 2024, and 1,120 alone over the past day.

Ukraine also estimated that Russian forces lost 8,513 tanks and 16,495 armored personnel carriers (APCs) as of Monday.

On Saturday, Aug. 17, the AFU reported that Russia lost 1,170 troops in a single day.

Russian personnel losses exceeded 500,000 in May, and the month also witnessed the highest reported daily troop losses at 1,200 on average, according to an update by the British Ministry of Defence on May 31.

A NATO official previously said that Russia has been recruiting around 30,000 troops monthly to sustain the losses.

Initially, Moscow had amassed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border weeks before the 2022 invasion.

On Aug. 6, Ukraine launched a new offensive into Russia’s less-fortified Kursk region, which took Moscow by surprise, with Russian conscripts being thrust into the fight in its attempt to contain the offensive.

On Aug. 14, Ukraine captured over 100 Russian prisoners of war (POWs) in its Kursk incursion, marking the largest single capture of Russian troops since Moscow’s invasion started In February 2022.

Y'Know What We Oughta Do, Boss?

We oughta go north and just fuck with the Russians for a while. And I mean really fuck with 'em.

Let's take a bit of their land - maybe up around Kursk, where we kicked Hitler's ass when he invaded us - and then tell 'em we're standing up a local government, complete with postal services. And then maybe we'll announce a referendum on which they prefer - Kyiv or Moscow.

C'mon, it'll be fun to poke that jerk Putin in the eye.

I sure hope these crazy Ukrainians know what they're doin'.

Fun Fact:

CNN has reporters embedded with Ukrainian forces, and they're filing stories from Russian territory around Sudzha.

Ukraine forms military administration in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi says

Ukraine established a first military administration in the Ukrainian-held parts of Russia's Kursk Oblast, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Aug. 15.

In a report to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Syrskyi said the administration will be led by General Eduard Moskaliov, a former commander of the Joint Forces.

Zelensky said earlier that the creation of special administrative bodies in Kursk Oblast could not be ruled out as the cross-border incursion stretches into its second week.

"Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast advanced 35 kilometers deep and control 1,150 square kilometers of Russian territory," Syrskyi said, adding that 82 Russian settlements are now under Ukraine's control.

Over the past day, Ukraine's troops advanced between 500 meters and 1.5 kilometers in the Russian region, the commander-in-chief reported.

"Except for Sudzha, (Russian forces) have been cleared out from three more settlements of Kursk Oblast," Syrskyi noted. The general reported already on Aug. 14 that Sudzha, a town some 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Ukraine's border, had been cleared of Moscow's troops.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters on Aug. 13 that "unlike Russia, Ukraine does not seek to seize territory" but wants to "protect the lives of our people."

Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast aims to prevent Moscow from sending additional reinforcements to the front in Donbas and stop Russian cross-border strikes, Tykhyi said.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that Ukraine's military is creating a "security zone" on Russian territory to protect Ukrainian border areas.

Vereshchuk said that Ukraine would be conducting humanitarian operations in the area, including creating safe corridors for civilians to evacuate — both toward Ukraine and to other parts of Russia.

International humanitarian organizations will also be allowed to enter the area to support the civilian population and monitor the situation, she added.

Ukraine’s National Postal Service Is Ready to Open in Sudzha

Ukrposhta is ready to open a branch in Sudzha to deliver parcels to Ukraine’s Armed Forces as soon as permits, funding, and safety measures come through.

Ukraine’s national postal service Ukrposhta stated that it’s ready to open a branch in Sudzha, captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during the offensive on Russian territory, which began on Aug. 6, 2024.

Ukrposhta CEO Ihor Smilyansky may see it as a necessary step to deliver parcels to Ukraine’s military officers currently located in Sudzha. Instead of premises, the CEO intends to install a “mobile branch.”

Ukraine’s postal services, Ukrposhta and Nova Poshta, use mobile branches to deliver parcels and provide services in territories under heavy Russian shelling and air strikes, or small towns and villages with limited infrastructure. They usually take the form of trucks or vans designed with the company’s colors and logo.

Ukrposhta employees demonstrating the Ukrposhta van for mobile branches. Source: RAU.
There are three conditions for a successful expansion: instructions and the decision from Ukraine’s government, safety guarantees, and funding, Ukrposhta CEO Ihor Smilyansky told Interfax-Ukraine.

Ukrposhta can open a branch in Sudzha if there are appropriate safety conditions for the workers. “It’s not about guaranteeing 100 percent safety, as even in Ukraine, this is not possible today, but rather an acceptable level of risk,” Smilyansky said.

Instead of a regular van, Smilyansky offered to use an armored vehicle similar to the Ukrainian Kozak armored personnel carrier.

Next, the government should enforce a decision to open a branch and allocate the resources for the expansion.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had captured the entire town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region, which is located 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Ukrainian border, citing reports from Oleksandr Syrsky, commander-in-chief of the AFU.

The town also houses the Sudzha gas metering station, which is the only transit route for Russian gas to Europe – through Ukraine. However, the significance of its capture remains unclear, since Ukraine could theoretically stop the flow of gas anywhere along the hundreds of kilometers of pipeline that run through Ukrainian territory.

Слава Україні

Свобода знаходить шлях

Wanna Negotiate?

Слава Україні

Свобода знаходить шлях

OK, Vlad, let's sit down and talk about a trade. You give us back Crimea and The Donbas, and we'll give you back Kursk and Belgorod.

FAFO, dick head - now get your ass outa my yard.

Ukraine appears to expand incursion into Russia, in a morale boost for Kyiv

Kyiv’s forces claimed to have reached a village inside of Russia’s Belgorod, as the Kremlin announced a “counterterrorism operation” in the area.

KYIV — Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia seemed to stretch to a second border region, with Kyiv’s forces claiming to have reached a village inside of Belgorod as the Kremlin announced a “counterterrorism operation” in the area — a sign of Moscow’s growing insecurity five days after Ukrainian troops launched the cross-border offensive.

Ukrainian forces have continued to push deeper into Russia, further signaling this operation wasn’t a short raid but rather a potential occupation. The move that has turned the tables of this war on Moscow, which invaded Ukraine more than two years ago.

Though Ukrainian officials have repeatedly declined to comment on the assault, their soldiers fighting in Russia have started posting more videos and photos to social media that purport to show them in Kursk and Belgorod. Several mechanized and assault units appear to be part of the offensive, meaning Kyiv has probably pulled thousands of soldiers off the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces had been gaining ground.

Whatever the ultimate purpose of Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, it has succeeded as a narrative-shifting morale boost for Kyiv. Instead of lamenting Russia’s advances on the eastern front every day, Ukrainians are eagerly monitoring — and snickering — at the news of their troops pushing deeper and deeper into Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine’s Sumy.

Analysts have said Ukraine’s military could be trying to divert Russian forces from other parts of the front line in eastern Ukraine. But Ukraine then also risks pulling more of its soldiers away from the tense defense there, and the quantity of reserves Russia uses to counter the assault on its territory may not outweigh the Ukrainian force committed. And if Ukraine indeed intends to hold and occupy this Russian territory for an extended period, that will also require a significant number of troops to stay put.

Though Kyiv’s ramped-up mobilization campaign has conscripted tens of thousands of men per month this summer, not all of those reinforcements have reached the battlefield, as they still have to complete training.

Ukrainian officials have said bringing the war to Russia and making its civilians experience the same displacement and bombardment that Ukrainians have for the past two years will place pressure on President Vladimir Putin and better Kyiv’s position in future negotiations to end the war.

In the latest show of Ukraine’s confidence, soldiers from Ukraine’s 252nd Territorial Defense Battalion recorded a video, shared on Saturday, standing outside of a building identified as the village club in Poroz — a settlement in Russia’s Belgorod region less than two miles from the border. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the video’s authenticity or when it was taken.

That would stretch Ukraine’s forces into a second Russian region after the initial offensive had been contained to just Kursk. Some Russian military analysts and pro-war bloggers claimed the video could be an orchestrated diversionary tactic to confuse Russian forces.

As Russian officials have claimed that the Ukrainian advance has been halted, Moscow also announced a “counterterrorism operation” on Saturday for three regions along Ukraine’s border. That entails heightened security, such as the ability to forcibly resettle civilians, document and vehicle checks and call monitoring. Authorities can also restrict internet access and limit communications in areas.

Ukraine - Russia - Africa

Don't think for a minute that Putin wouldn't engineer a famine in Africa and then use use it as leverage against the west in order to push for a settlement that's favorable to him in Ukraine.

Geopolitics is an unbelievably shitty game.

Starting at about 6:42

Famine has been a favorite tool of Russian authoritarian assholes for a mighty long time.

Drones

Here's one scary-as-fuck video from Simon Whistler.

And don't get too comfortable, thinking we're OK because we're such good buddies with those Ukrainian fellers - people are already marrying drones with AI, and tech does not stay in one place for long, so we can expect plenty of trouble from the assholes who will surely be jumping all over that shit for nefarious purposes.

Today's Beau

Today's Reddit

BTW, I'm really glad to have been (like most everybody else) totally wrong about Ukraine's chances.

And I remember a couple of instances that made me believe Ukraine wouldn't just survive - they could win the fuckin' thing.

Less than 2 weeks into it, the story broke about somebody's Baba taking down a Russian drone with a jar of pickled tomatoes.

You don't fuck with Baba.

And you don't fuck with Baba's kin.

🇺🇦 soldier returning to ‘normal’ / civilian life bursts into tears after being at yhr front
byu/ibloodylovecider inukraine

Now hold on there - wait just a gosh darn minute.

You're tellin' me Ukraine is a place where people get together and - like - try to take care of each other? Huh - I wonder if we could get that to catch on here in USAmerica Inc. Sounds kinda nice.

Слава Україні

Героям слава

Свобода знаходить шлях

🇺🇸🌎🌏🌍❤️🇺🇦

Say What Now?

What the actual fuck, Russia?

Invading Ukraine was, in itself, a war crime, and you assholes are committing thousands of other war crimes wrapped up in that one big war crime - and now you want us to believe we should do what, shudder at the thought of losing you as a partner in diplomacy?

You're like that a drunk jerk with a swastika neck tattoo who shows up at the wedding reception, dry humps the mother of the bride, ass-plants in the cake, punches the DJ because he won't play Deutschland Über Alles, and then claims that if he leaves, it'll spoil the party?

I realize this is something that has to be considered, and handled with some care because you never really know what a guy like Putin is up to. And we have to wonder if there's a signal here that we need to pick up - like maybe he understands what a tight spot he's in - or maybe somebody else on the inside is trying to signal that Putin's all but done in - I don't claim to know, but 

seriously - what the fuck are you guys even talking about?

Russia mulling downgrading ties with West, Kremlin says

• Kremlin says West is hostile
• No decision yet taken on downgrading ties

MOSCOW, June 27 (Reuters) - Russia is considering a possible downgrading of relations with the West due to the deeper involvement of the United States and its allies in the Ukraine war, but no decision had yet been taken, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

A downgrading of relations - or even breaking them off - would illustrate the gravity of the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine after an escalation in tensions over the war in recent months.

Even during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Cold War is thought to have come closest to nuclear war, Russia did not sever relations with the United States, though Moscow did break off ties with Israel over the 1967 Middle East war.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Izvestia newspaper that ambassadors fulfilled a difficult but important job that allowed a channel of communication to operate in troubled times.

But Ryabkov also said that a possible downgrading of ties with the West was being studied.
When asked about the possibility of such a move, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that given the West's current approach to Russia it was one of several options that was being considered, though no decision had yet been made.

"The issue of lowering the level of diplomatic relations is a standard practice for states that face unfriendly or hostile manifestations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

"Due to the growing involvement of the West in the conflict over Ukraine, the Russian Federation cannot but consider various options for responding to such hostile Western intervention in the Ukrainian crisis."

President Vladimir Putin, who ordered thousands of troops into Ukraine in 2022, presents the war as part of a wider struggle with the U.S., which he says ignored Moscow's interests after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and then plotted to split Russia apart and seize its natural resources.

The West and Ukraine have cast the war as an imperial-style land-grab. Western leaders, who deny they want to destroy Russia, say that if Putin wins the war then autocracies across the world will be emboldened.

With Russia gaining the upper hand in the biggest land war in Europe since World War Two, the Ukraine crisis has escalated in recent months.

After the United States allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with some U.S. weapons, the Kremlin sent signals that it viewed this as a serious escalation.

Putin has ordered drills to practise deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, suggested Russia could station conventional missiles within striking distance of the United States and its allies, and sealed a mutual defence pact with North Korea.

The United States and its European allies still have embassies in Russia, and Russia has embassies in Washington and European capitals, though diplomats from both sides say they are experiencing the most hostile conditions in decades.

"Moscow has given up on repairing relations with the West," said Geoffrey Roberts, a historian of Josef Stalin and Soviet international relations at University College Cork.

"It would signal that Putin thinks he can usher in a Brave New Multipolar World, whilst at the same time keeping the West at arm's length," he said. "But maybe its a just a gesture, a protest, a sign of frustration with the West and/or a sop to Russian hardliners who want to escalate the war in Ukraine."

NSFW

This is some truly nasty shit.

Aside from the obvious - and the fact that the poor slob looks like they grabbed him fresh out of Accounts Receivable at the vodka distributorship in Omsk a few days ago - what kinda shitty fucked up army has their guys running around the battlefield wearing tennies?

Russian wounded by FPV is killed by his fellow fleeing soldier
byu/zelenoid inCombatFootage

Ukraine

This is called an incitement to commit genocide. It's a war crime.

These guys will be dragged to The Hague, or they'll be cowering in sponsored exile as guests of sympathizing asshole regimes, or they'll be dead (likely by their own hand).

If the Kremlin’s intentions weren’t already clear enough, here is former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev saying today that the concept of an independent Ukrainian identity must "disappear for good" pic.twitter.com/hqnPvXq4oA

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) March 4, 2024

Genocide:

A crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part.

Genocidal Intent:

The mens rea (mental element) for the crime of genocide. "Intent to destroy" is one of the elements of the crime of genocide according to the 1948 Genocide Convention. 

Today's Beau

This seems vaguely important.

Today I Learned

• Russia's murder rate is up 900% in the last year
• The ruling clique is shrinking as Putin's helpers are valued for loyalty instead of competence
• Any succession plan that begins to gain inertia is disrupted or snuffed out
• Russia's ambitions have never been in line with its capabilities
• One fairly likely outcome is that Russia becomes a vassal state to China

Today's Press Poodle Award

It's a piece about the fucked up House GOP, but I guess the reporter and the editors just can't find it in themselves to make it clear how an aid package actually works.

It's lazy and sloppy - and further damaging to Americans' understanding of how governments are supposed to function.

‘We’re not going to let her take out the speaker’: Moskowitz rips Greene again

He said Democrats are not inclined to allow her to have such control over the House.

Democrats might not be sold on the idea of saving Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson from an attempted ouster. But at least one isn’t too keen on the idea of helping Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) remove him.

“Well, I mean, look, obviously we’ll wait for our Leader Jeffries to figure out that solution,” Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said Sunday during an interview on MSNBC’s “The Weekend,” referencing Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“But I’ve said this before, and I think there are other members who feel the same way, the idea of allowing Marjorie Taylor Greene, someone who literally, you know, would let the world burn, you know, with her isolationist foreign policy who has talked about states seceding from the union, right?” Moskowitz, not one to miss a chance to make a dig at his Republican nemesis, continued.

Hours after the House passed a $95 billion foreign aid package delivering billions to Ukraine, as well as Israel and Taiwan, Greene doubled down on the threats she made leading up to the vote to work to remove Johnson if he worked with Democrats to pass another Ukraine aid bill.

Nobody's delivering dollars to Ukraine - this is pimping the GOP bullshit about shipping pallets of cash to Kyiv.

“Mike Johnson’s speakership is over. He needs to do the right thing and resign,” the Georgia Republican said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo” last week. “If he doesn’t do so, he will be vacated.”

But Moskowitz, who has made it a habit of gleefully trolling the Republican hardliner, said Democrats likely won’t let it happen.

“The idea of letting [Greene] sit in the people’s House and the well of Congress, giving a speech, removing any speaker and having that powerful moment, there is just no way Democrats are going to let her do that. I’m not going to let her do that. We won’t even let her name a post office. We’re not going to let her take out the speaker,” Moskowitz said.

A spokesperson for Greene didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Gotcha, Vlad

In the middle of "No aid is going to Ukraine until the Republicans get their heads outa their asses", Biden sneaked a few ATACMS to Kyiv, and Zelensky used them to knock the shit out of a Russian airbase in Crimea.

And then the White House lets it slip that, "Yeah, we did that - we told you guys not to fuck with our friends."

• We just got another $61B to buy stuff that's even better than the ATACMS (and all the other stuff) we're sending to Ukraine
• Ukraine continues to gut the Russian military for us
• Putin's position in the Kremlin is weakened - which in turn makes Erdogan and Orban play nice
• Xi has to slow his roll on Taiwan - cuz he has to see we're not fuckin' around, and besides, now he can look at taking pieces of eastern Russia (eg)
• Iran, you idiots watching?
• NATO gets stronger and more secure - and more likely to go along with practically anything Biden wants

Biden's message with all this: "We can be really nice guys, and we can be really great friends. But don't try to push us around. We will fuck you up."

The US quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - The United States in recent weeks secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for use in its battle to fight off Russian invaders, and Ukraine has now used them twice, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

The missiles were contained in a $300 million military aid package for Ukraine that U.S. President Joe Biden approved on March 12, said the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official would not say how many of the missiles were sent.

The missiles were used for the first time in the early hours of April 17, launched against a Russian airfield in Crimea that was about 165 km (103 miles) from the Ukrainian front lines, the official said.

The official said Ukraine used the weapon a second time overnight against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine.

Whether to send the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with a range up to 300 km was a subject of debate within the Biden administration for months. Mid-range ATACMS were supplied last September.

The Pentagon initially opposed the long-range missile deployment, fearing the loss of the missiles from the American stockpile would hurt U.S. military readiness. There were also concerns that Ukraine would use them to attack targets deep inside Russia.

Russia's use of North Korean-supplied long-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine in December and January, despite U.S. public and private warnings not to do so, led to a change in heart, the U.S. official said.

Also a factor in U.S. decision-making was Russia's targeting of Ukraine's critical infrastructure, the official said.

"We warned Russia about those things," the official said. "They renewed their targeting."

In late January the U.S. military found a way to satisfy their concerns about military readiness, which enabled the administration to move forward. They began acquiring new missiles coming off the Lockheed-Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab production line.

Biden met with his national security team in mid-February and agreed to accept the unanimous recommendation of his advisers to send the missiles to Ukraine. Involved in the discussion were national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C.Q. Brown.

The challenge at that point was to figure out how to pay for the missiles. The United States had exhausted all of its funding options and congressional gridlock stymied further aid.

An opportunity arose in March, when several Pentagon contracts came in under bid. Biden was able to use the difference to send $300 million in assistance to Ukraine.

Biden told his team to include the long-range ATACMS in this funding package, but to do so secretly in order to maintain operational security and the element of surprise for Ukraine, the official said.

All of Crimea, BTW, is now untenable. The Russians could be leaving abruptly and rapidly. And they need to do that before Zelensky takes down what's left of the Kerch bridge.

Слава Україні

Freedom finds a way.

Senate passes Ukraine, Israel aid bill after months-long debate

The $95 billion foreign aid bill now heads to the president’s desk

The Senate overwhelmingly passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill on Tuesday, delivering billions of dollars in weapons and support to key U.S. allies Ukraine and Israel despite some opposition from both parties’ bases. The legislation, which passed by a 79-18 vote, had seemed all but dead for several months due to opposition in the GOP-led House.

President Biden said in a statement he would sign the bill into law as soon as it crosses his desk on Wednesday, and send aid to Ukraine this week. The funds help him deliver on his promise to the nation’s NATO allies to continue to aid Ukraine as it enters its third year fending off Russia’s invasion.

Passage of the legislation marks the first significant new tranche of aid passed by the U.S. Congress to the beleaguered nation in more than a year, as some Republicans aligned more with former president Trump’s “America First” foreign policy waged a fierce battle against it. They ultimately lost out when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) decided to put the $61 billion in Ukraine aid on the floor last Saturday, citing his belief that Russia posed a serious threat.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world,” Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the floor on Tuesday. "America will always defend democracy in its hour of need.”

Nine Republican senators flipped their votes to support the legislation on Tuesday after voting against an earlier version of the aid in February.

The legislation also sends $26 billion in funds for Israel and humanitarian aid for Gaza and other places, at a time when some congressional Democrats are calling for further aid to Israel to come with conditions.

Just three senators who caucus with Democrats opposed the aid package as progressives continue to decry the mounting civilian casualties in Gaza. University protests are growing and becoming more volatile, and the State Department released a report saying the human rights situation has significantly deteriorated in the region because of the conflict.

“Israel does not have the right to go to war against the entire Palestinian people, which is exactly what it is doing,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt). said on the Senate floor ahead of the vote.

Sanders and other Democrats, including Schumer, have criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza that’s left more than 34,000 Palestinians dead and much of the region’s housing and civilian infrastructure destroyed. Famine is spreading, humanitarian aid officials and USAID administrator Samantha Power said this month.

The Senate measure also would force TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company to sell off the social media site or face a ban, as well as allocating $8 billion for Taiwan, other IndoPacific allies and countering China. A portion of the $61 billion in Ukraine funds are given via a loan to Ukraine that the U.S. president may forgive beginning in 2026.

The Ukraine funds come at a key juncture for the country in its war with Russia, as Ukrainian forces, running low on ammunition, have begun to cede frontline towns to Russia. The Pentagon has warned for months that a U.S. failure to arm Ukraine would prove catastrophic, and potentially spur Russian military advancement into other neighboring countries.

“So much of the hesitation and shortsightedness that has delayed this moment is premised on sheer fiction,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Tuesday. “Make no mistake: delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression.”

The months of congressional inaction may also have dealt long-lasting damage to America’s reputation and alliances, officials and analysts say.

“The perception of the reliability of the United States is severely damaged,” said Kurt Volker, who served as a liaison to Ukraine under the Trump administration. “That has ripple effects.” NATO member states may be more doubtful that the U.S. would uphold its commitment to mutual defense as a member of the alliance, he said.

The Senate passed a version of the aid bill in February, following months-long negotiations to come up with a GOP-demanded bipartisan border deal linked to the aid that fell apart after Trump announced his opposition. The effort divided Senate Republicans at the time, and only 22 of them voted for it. But on Tuesday, 31 Republicans voted to advance the measure, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) a longtime hawk who flipped his vote from February.

At a celebratory news conference after a key procedural vote succeeded, McConnell said he believed the vote showed Republicans rejected an isolationist worldview that he said was promoted by ex-Fox News personality Tucker Carlson, whom he mocked for recently interviewing Russian Leader Vladimir Putin.

“I think we’ve turned a corner on the isolationist movement,” McConnell said.

In February, Trump said at a rally that he’d encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that is not spending a sufficient amount of money on its own defense.

“I think it’s an insult to the American people the idea that, again, we’re going to send another 60 billion to secure the borders of another country,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), who voted against the bill.

The aid package has been long awaited by the White House, which requested the current version of the funds in October, shortly after Israel came under attack by Hamas in the Oct. 7 assault that left about 1,200 Israelis dead.

Schumer and McConnell were largely united in pushing for Ukraine aid, despite fierce House GOP opposition that hung over Johnson as he weighed his decision. The speaker may yet lose his job over the Ukraine aid vote due to lingering anger on his right flank, but Trump has so far praised him and cautioned against ejecting Johnson.

“McConnell and I locked arms on this, we were shoulder to shoulder the whole way through,” Schumer said of the Senate’s efforts in an interview. The two men strategized on how to convince Johnson to let the House vote on their measure, and made a pact not to separate Israel aid from Ukraine funds, he said.

The bill prohibits any U.S. aid funds from going to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) — the organization that distributes most of the food, medicine and basic services to Palestinians in Gaza and across the Middle East — operating in Gaza and the West Bank following Israeli allegations that a dozen of its employees were involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. An independent review of the latter claim commissioned by the United Nations found no evidence to support it.

The bill prohibits any of the bill’s humanitarian funds from going to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the organization that distributes most of the food, medicine and basic services to Palestinians in Gaza and across the Middle East. That ban follows allegations that a dozen of UNRWA’s employees were involved in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and that the agency has been widely infiltrated by Hamas. An independent review of the latter claim commissioned by the United Nations found no evidence to support it.

Polling suggests Democrats are deeply divided about Israel’s approach to the war, but Democratic senators largely stuck together in approving the aid package on Tuesday. Some Democrats cited Iran’s recent strike on Israel as a development they believed would make clear to voters the need for the aid.

“The notion that we ought to help Israel defend itself I think also is a little more obvious to people than it might have been in February,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). The senator added that he believes Israel has allowed more humanitarian aid into the strip in recent weeks, following a deadly Israeli strike on World Central Kitchen aid workers.

Others cited the impracticality of trying to put conditions on the aid, saying such action is more effective coming from the president.

“The more I have looked into the mechanics of what would it actually mean to try to condition aid in response to a specific event at a specific time — it was always going to require cooperation and partnership from the executive,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). “Because aid that we approve or vote for now will not arrive for months or years.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who traveled to the Capitol in December to ask for more support, thanked Congress for their actions ahead of the Senate vote. “We are glad that the United States remains with Ukraine, that it remains our main powerful ally,” Zelensky wrote on social media.

As the Senate considered the aid package Tuesday, Ukrainian lawmakers hoisted the American flag in Ukraine’s parliament.

“This critical legislation will make our nation and world more secure as we support our friends who are defending themselves against terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin,” Biden said in a statement.

And now we can ponder what this might portend for the Putin's Boot-Licker Caucus.

Enemies

Sending beans, bullets, and bandaids to Ukraine now means we won't be sending body bags to Poland later.

Ukraine

Opinion
Does Trump have a point about Ukraine?

As House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and former president Donald Trump blockade further U.S. aid to Ukraine, you might wonder why the United States should send billions to a faraway country when Americans need help here at home.

Notice above, WaPo's willingness to play into the bullshit rhetorical construct that pits Americans against Ukrainians, as if we're enemies.

What do the facts suggest? Some of the questions below might seem easy. But they weren’t for many of the people we asked. (We partnered with Gapminder, a Swedish nonprofit, to survey 600 people ages 18 to 65 about Ukraine spending. The sample was balanced to reflect U.S. demography.)

Some 20 other nations have spent more supporting Ukraine, as a share of their economies, than the United States has. Even so, the entire U.S. economy is so big it’s hard to grasp. How about comparing U.S. aid for Ukraine with spending on critical domestic programs?

In fairness, the U.S. government spends a lot on Social Security every year. The program is the federal government’s second-biggest budget item. Let’s find a more modest comparison.

"In fairness"? Are you really trying to be "fair", WaPo? Or are you backhanding retired people because you think we cost you more than we're worth? Sounds like you're doing that standard bullshit again - pitting older Americans against newer Americans.

Now let’s explore how Ukraine military aid compares with U.S. defense programs.

Millions, billions, trillions — the numbers can seem the same: impossibly large. Perhaps that is why this essential reality is not more commonly understood: Investing in Ukraine’s defense doesn’t cost the United States all that much in the grand scheme of U.S. priorities, particularly if it deters Russia from threatening NATO allies that the United States is treaty-bound to defend — or China from committing acts of aggression, perhaps against Taiwan. Not to mention that, as Marc A. Thiessen explained in a recent Post column, much of the spending goes to U.S. firms manufacturing weapons for Ukrainian use.

The investment isn’t costless or without risk. It’s possible that Ukraine might never develop into the full-fledged, Western-oriented democracy it has the potential to become. But the opportunity to cultivate one of Europe’s largest countries, rich in resources, as a U.S. partner holds the promise of direct benefits to the United States and its allies. Even if you aren’t persuaded by the moral case for helping a vulnerable democracy fight for its freedom, the spending is still worth it.

Ukraine

War is a laboratory. I'm not saying there's a positive side to war. There isn't.

And no, not even if you win it. Nobody wins a war. The "winner" is just the side that either loses the least, and gives it up last.

The point here is that the ridiculous shit going on in Ukraine is teaching us a lot about the ridiculous shit we can look forward to when the next ridiculous shit gets going.

If The Drones Wars aren't here already, we don't have long to wait.

2 years on, Ukraine's drone makers look to deliver 'a peaceful sky, a quiet life, a victory'

In the two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine's home-grown defence tech - especially drones - has kept the country going.

"Instead of using human capital, let's use autonomous vehicles because it will save our lives," said Ivan Kaunov, co-founder of start-up Finmap turned officer in Ukraine’s army.

"That's the main change that I see on the battlefield since the very beginning," he told Euronews Next ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.

Speaking from an undisclosed location in a car, Kaunov, who serves in the army and develops drone technologies, says defence technology has become essential to the fight.

The start-up co-founder graduated from the military department at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in 2012 and at the beginning of the war, he was an officer in the ground forces.

"I was the second person in command of 110 people and went to line zero (the farthest edge of the front lines) and had some personal close combat experience," Kaunov said.

"But then in the summer of 2022, I had a serious concussion," he added, an injury which forced him to spend a few months in rehabilitation. He was then moved to another department of the army that he cannot disclose.

"Since that time, I learned how to work with more than 25 different ISR (​​intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) long-range drones from various countries".

The drone war

Drones are "absolutely crucial" in the war, according to Kaunov. While there are the kamikaze and explosive drones that attack the enemy, intelligence drones that can provide information in real-time from enemy territory are important too.

Without the latter, he said, you cannot actually strike the enemy’s headquarters or ammunition warehouses with long-range artillery systems as you are "blind".

Another reason drones are so important in the war is they are relatively cheap to make and can make an impact when destroying the opponent’s expensive military weapons.

"If we can destroy something which cost millions [with] something that cost hundreds of dollars, that's how we're going to win this war," Kaunov said.

With his battlefield experience and knowledge of drones, he co-founded his latest company Buntar Aerospace, which digitalises first-hand experience from the battlefield into both hardware and software solutions for long-range ISR drones.

It helps to plan missions and manages real-time video broadcasting in areas that are jammed due to electronic warfare.

"We have to accept the reality that we have a huge enemy here on our border. And this enemy doesn’t just want us to leave, he wants to vanish us as a nation," Kaunov said.

"So we have to defend ourselves. That means we have to rebuild lots of different things to manage it all. And I believe it will be done".

But drones do have their drawbacks. For them to complete a task, they must have a stable connection between the control panel and the drone itself.

They can also be easily detected as they emit frequencies into the air.

"Around the world, the main manufacturers of components for drones make modules for them developed on the same components," said Serhii Titkov, an inventor and developer of Kseonics Technology.

He created the DDSR1 drone detector, which detects enemy drones in Ukraine.

"They have a limited number of communication channels, and if the video connection is analogue, they do not have any encryption, and the video signal is available to anyone who has standard and commercially available video receivers," he told Euronews Next.

This means the drones can become jammed and tracked by enemies.

The only way to overcome this, he said, is by producing control and video transmitters using expensive imported components, or by equipping the drone with a machine vision system, where the operator fixes his target before radio interference occurs, and the drone flies to it on autopilot.

The funding issue

This is expensive to do, and Ukrainian defence tech start-ups say they need more funding.

"I hope that manufacturers of electronic chips designed for telemetry will join in supporting Ukraine and develop chips that can significantly help Ukrainians in confronting the aggressor [to] gain a technological advantage," said Titkov.

He said the company has lots of ideas for new developments that they plan to mass-produce, which requires not only funding but also good specialists.

He hopes Ukraine will this year see "a peaceful sky, a quiet life, a victory, and for new technologies to be used only for medicine, fighting hunger, and building alternative energy sources and the environment".

Despite Ukraine’s government initiatives, such as Brave1, a defence tech coordination platform that this year has a budget of more than $39 million (€36 million) to award to tech companies, funding is the biggest headache.

This is in part because investment lifecycles in defence tech are much longer than those of regular start-ups.

"Investors are sometimes afraid because they have pre-agreed [funding] life cycles. So, like three years of investments and in defence tech, it is not so fast," said Daria Yaniieva, head of our start-ups division at Ukrainian IT company Sigma Software.

But she said defence tech should be treated like any other start-up or company when it comes to investing, and she is confident there are returns on these investments.

"What we see in Ukrainian defence tech, is that the solutions that are born [on] the battlefield, they are actually tailored for the new era," she told Euronews Next.

"And this is where Ukraine can take the stage… So in terms of the investments, this is a sweet spot for everyone".

Investing in Ukraine’s tech ecosystem is also helping to keep the country’s economy afloat.

Last year, the tech sector contributed 4.9 per cent or €6.5 billion to Ukraine’s GDP, according to Lviv IT Cluster.

The number of Ukrainians working in the tech sector has also increased by over 7 per cent.

'Not just about weapons'

Investors are also cautious about defence tech as they believe it is just about killing machines, which is a common misassumption.

"Let's be clear that defence tech is not only about weapons. It's about smart solutions for logistics, media propaganda, software solutions, and drones. Weapons are just a small part of it," Yaniieva said.

But funding is even difficult for Ukranian start-ups that are trying to save lives.

Anima is a Kyiv-based start-up that tries to understand mental health by tracking eye movement via a computer camera. It does this by looking at attention behaviour, which can determine what is happening with the psyche in terms of mental health.

The company claims it can predict whether a person is going to develop any kind of disorder, a person’s current mental state and whether they need help.

Anima was started in response to the COVID-19 pandemic but is being used by Ukraine’s military and hospitals in unofficial clinical tests.

Roman Havrysh, CEO and Co-Founder of Anima, told Euronews Next that about 22,000 people in Ukraine are using the service to improve their mental health.

"The war is probably the worst condition a human can find themselves [in] and so that was the idea to give people the tool, to understand themselves better and to better navigate through challenging times," he said.

But then when it was used by military psychologists and hospitals, it was seen as useful as the psychologist questionnaires usually given to soldiers can easily be manipulated by the soldiers to get the results they want.

"They started using our company to assess military personnel’s conditions between missions and whether people are capable of doing the mission or not. Because the psychological condition is probably the biggest influencer on the battlefield," Havrysh said.

The company is also planning to use the technology to better understand the impacts of concussions on the brain, which is a common problem for soldiers.

Despite the promising tech, Havrysh said it is bad timing for funding due to the "war and investment climate in Ukraine".

"Even before the war, Ukraine was not the best country to invest in," he said, adding he is having to reinvest from his other companies into Anima.

The foreign funding problem

On top of Ukrainian investors being wary of investing in Anima as they are careful with the new technology, foreign investment is also difficult.

"Unfortunately, our investors are not protected by law because they are in the United States or somewhere else. So we are struggling heavily with this," he said.

"Despite President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy saying that we are very welcoming of investment, unfortunately, that's not the case right now. They are kind of trying to get there, but it's still a long journey ahead".

Havrysh said this creates a brain drain, with many Ukrainian companies relocating to countries such as Canada.

"Investor relations on the global governmental level should be updated to help us. We will probably at some point need to also relocate, otherwise we will probably fail".

Army SOS, which does not use weapons but defence strategies such as defence mapping software for logistics and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, has also seen funding dry up.

"People were more invested in the start of the war because they were expecting it to be a quick victory in a couple of months," said Mykhailo Yatsyshyn, head of the UK office of Army SOS.

"We are defending not just our country, we are defending the war and if you invest, you are investing in saving people’s lives and that’s the most important," he told Euronews Next.

"We have only one target and that is Russia. So we need to just destroy this regime and bring Ukraine to victory and back to normal life. That's my hope for 2024," he added.