Hawk

Those slush fund checks aren't coming either - no matter what kind of fuckery Blanche pulls. Token payments for a small number of super thugs maybe - but the rest goes in Trump's pocket.

And the timing of the cuts that Republicans built into The Big Bamboozle Bill will dump the shit on red states after the midterms, and guess what - the Democrats are going to get blamed.

We are the stoopid country.

Hey, MAGA

... when do you think you might start getting tired of being played for suckers all the fuckin' time?

U.S. employers added 911,000 fewer jobs than first reported, new BLS data shows

The change from April 2024 to March 2025 was the biggest revision on record. President Donald Trump fired the BLS commissioner last month over an earlier updated report.

The U.S. labor market was far weaker during much of 2024 and early 2025 than data initially showed, a new government report indicated Tuesday — injecting more uncertainty into the economy and fueling a raging debate over the figures that analysts use to understand it.

Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend.
In the largest preliminary revision to jobs data on record, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers had created 911,000 fewer positions from April 2024 to March 2025 than previously reported. That’s less than half as many as the agency had initially indicated. The data will be revised again and finalized early next year. Economists say that report could be less negative.

But the revision adds more evidence that the economy was already slowing even before President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs and immigration policies squeezed costs for many businesses.

And it landed just a month after Trump fired the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, over weak jobs data, accusing her without evidence of overseeing government figures that were “rigged” for political purposes, including to help Democrats in the presidential election that Trump won.

The White House said the new report showed that the BLS is “broken” and that the economy was suffering under President Joe Biden.

“This makes it very clear that President Trump inherited a much worse economy by the Biden administration than ever reported,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday. “And it also proves that the Federal Reserve is holding our monetary policy far too restrictive. Interest rates are too high. The Fed needs to cut the rates because of the mess that we inherited from the Biden administration.”

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said in a separate statement that the American people had “even more reason to doubt the integrity of [BLS] data” and condemned the agency’s leaders, who she said had “failed to improve their practices during the Biden administration.”

Many economists and policymakers across the political spectrum stress that there is no reason to question the quality of the data.

Forecasters said they had expected a large revision this year due in part to slowing business growth, shifting immigration levels, declining response rates to government surveys and an apparent downward shift in the broader economy.

“These revisions don’t really change my perspective about the labor market, which was already reasonably pessimistic,” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute. “We knew the labor market was cooling over this period. A lot of other indicators came down. And in the process of that happening, we added less jobs.”

The three major stock indexes sank Tuesday morning on news of the massive downward revisions. But they rallied by midday, and all closed up slightly, as investors look ahead to rate cuts widely expected at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The new annual revisions provide a more accurate snapshot of the labor market before new economic forces began to take hold — including higher tariffs and stronger immigration enforcement from the Trump administration.

Those forces have lately weighed on the labor market, which could be heading for a downturn. Monthly jobs data published last week revealed a rising unemployment rate and weaker-than-expected job creation of just 22,000 new positions in August. Even more concerning: The data showed the labor market shed jobs in June, the first such losses since the coronavirus pandemic.

The Trump administration shrugged off last week’s report as temporary, saying it expects a resurgence of new jobs and advanced manufacturing as a result of the president’s trade and immigration policies.

Most of the revisions announced Tuesday reflect the labor market under Biden. The report does not change estimates of job gains since March.

The closely watched monthly jobs reports are based on surveys of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies — a small share of the millions of U.S. employers. So the figures become more accurate when they are later calibrated with data from state unemployment offices. When the economy is rapidly growing or shrinking — as it did during the pandemic, or as it can at the start of a recession — large changes can result, because it is harder for surveys to capture how many businesses are opening or shutting down.

The preliminary revisions announced this week bring the average monthly pace of job gains during the year ending in March to just over 70,000, down from 147,000. Tuesday’s report does not indicate when the revisions took place over the 12-month period; that information will be released when the data is finalized early next year.

The annual revisions removed about 0.6 percent of all U.S. employment, the largest percentage fix since 2009.

The changes affected many sectors but especially leisure and hospitality. The report downgraded job gains in that industry, which includes hotels and restaurants, by 176,000 positions. Retail and wholesale trade also took a hit. And the information sector, which includes media, tech and telecoms, lost the largest share of jobs, about 67,000 positions, or 2.3 percent of its total employment.

Some economists argue that the labor market is still solid. The unemployment rate remains relatively low, at 4.3 percent, as do layoffs. Lower levels of immigration could mean that fewer new jobs are needed to support the population, compared with recent years, to keep the unemployment rate stable.

Last year, the preliminary revisions to jobs data drew an uproar. BLS reported that the economy created 818,000 fewer jobs in the year ending in March 2024, which at the time was the biggest fix to federal jobs data in 15 years. Trump jumped on the revisions to accuse Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Biden of “fraudulently manipulating job statistics” for political purposes. The final revisions published early this year ended up showing a smaller change, a downgrade of roughly 598,000 fewer jobs.

Economist Michael Strain of the right-of-center American Enterprise Institute said that he believes this week’s news will “unfortunately contribute to the narrative that there’s something fishy going on at BLS. It’s possible that we’ll see an even more aggressive response from the president.”

He added: “I think there is not a shred of evidence to believe that there’s any political bias in the data and there’s not a shred of evidence to believe the data are being manipulated in any way for any reason. In addition, I think there’s lots of scope to improve the data, and that’s something that I think would require money.”

Since firing McEntarfer in early August, Trump has nominated BLS critic and Heritage Foundation chief economist E.J. Antoni to lead the agency. Antoni is facing scrutiny from policymakers and economists for his pro-MAGA partisanship, relative lack of experience and what critics have called a misunderstanding of economic data, which could threaten his confirmation hearing in the coming weeks. Antoni has said he is interested in improving the accuracy of BLS data, and the White House has said that Trump tapped Antoni to solve those problems.

Erica Groshen, who led the BLS under President Barack Obama, said the large revisions announced this week also reflected lower participation in government surveys. Only about 35 percent of employers agreed to participate in voluntary jobs surveys, according to data from April, down from 74 percent a decade ago.

Berger, of the Burning Glass Institute, said he has been giving less credence to monthly job creation data in recent years, which has been highly distorted by recent shifts in labor supply, including the surge and subsequent crackdown in immigration.

Instead, Berger and many analysts and policymakers have been paying closer attention to the unemployment rate, hiring and layoff levels, and employment ratios, which have revealed periods of weakness over the past year. For example, the unemployment rate climbed last summer, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates in September 2024.

“If your perspective has been ‘Wow, these job numbers are good, so the labor market is strong,’ you probably should have changed your mind on that a long time ago,” Berger said.

Oy

I admit that I was feeling almost hopeful earlier today, but then this fuckin' idiot started talking again, and I'm right back to, "Holy fuck - we might not make it after all."

On BlueSky

Who did this?

[image or embed]

— Adam Kinzinger (@adamkinzinger.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 7:14 AM

Overheard

The Left:

We want to see if we can make sure everybody's basic rights are respected, and everybody's basic needs are met.

The Right:

We want to eliminate people who can't - or won't - fend for themselves, and you have no rights that aren't listed in the first ten amendments.

The Middle:

It's so hard to tell the difference - they both sound the same to me.

The Mother Of All FAFOs

It sucks. And I get it - I really do.

But here's the thing: You just flat out refused to see what was going on, and you refused to listen. So all you did was spit in your own face. You're having the day you deserve, but your fuck up means the rest of us get to suffer right along with you.

Today's Driftglass

Ode The The Low Information Voter

Because I know you are so very very busy

That you have no time to know anything at all

I will keep this brief.

I know you are far too busy driving Chinese toys and 

Cigarettes and

Pressboard furniture across the continent 

To pay attention to anything

Except double-clutching and yellow lines, and

The radio,

Which is playing Hannity and Rogan and Savage and Levin and Beck and 

Shapiro and

Kirk and 

Savage and

Prager and 

Larson, and, of course,

The game, and

Maybe you have just enough time to stop off in that Ohio diner and 

Tell to the New York Times foreign correspondents 

Permanently stationed there

About the caravans of illegals and

The price of eggs and 

Shoplifting in San Diego and yet

You are also a single mother

Raising nine kids and

Working nine jobs who

Has no time to think about anything except

Making correct change and getting the order right, and

Who is up and who is out on the Masked Singer, and

Can you believe the bullshit judging on Dancing the the Stars, and

Dropping in on focus groups to explain about how tariffs work, and

The illegals making houses so expensive, and

Why Kamala Harris cannot be trusted,

(Did you know that she slept her way to the top, and

Her father is a communist!) and

You remember hearing something about January sixth or

Maybe it was the seventh, whatever, 

You're not exactly sure what, but

Strangely you are also 24 and a dude and have no girlfriend,

Which is fine, really, fine, because you are just crazy busy all the time

With...stuff like Call of Duty and GTO and Diablo 4, and

Your shitty job where customers ask the stupidest questions, and

Bitch about everything like you're Mr. CVS, and

How come fucking Joe Biden will pay off those rich college fuckers bills, but

Won't make weed legal in your state, and

Someday you're going to be making real money with MMA

Because you practice your moves in your garage, but

It's hard to relax when everything is so fucked up, like, uh, like,

Y'know the price of stuff and crime and shit, and 

What we need is a badass MMA guy to kick some ass because,

Respect, gotta have respect,

Chicks go for that like magnets, and

You remember hearing on Twitter something about 

COVID being a scam, and somehow 

You're also a retired couple, living well, but 

You hear all these things,

On the news, and

It's all so bad,

So, so bad,

Never been so bad,

Sure you're doing ok, but out there, just over the horizon,

The country is in ruins, and

Unemployment has never been higher, and 

DEI caused the California wildfires, and 

What's going on on college campuses which is just shameful, and

Inflation is out of control, and 

Crime gangs run the Blue cities, and,

The government is giving all our money to moochers and foreign wars, and

Everyone knows Biden was being controlled by you-know-who, and

Do your own research because everything is out of control, and 

It's never been this bad before

Ever.

Today's FAFO

On November 6th, four of the top Google searches were

1. Can I change my vote?
2. Do tariffs cause inflation?
3. What should I buy before the tariffs kick in?
4. What is Project 2025?

On the day after the fucking election.

Peak Dunning Kruger

"Strategic Voting".

When you think you're being clever and savvy, but the effect is that you're being a total fucking idiot.

 

"The problem is knowing enough to believe you're right,

but not enough to know you're wrong."

Today it's Danielle Moodie

Some of the smartest commentary I've heard in a while.

If you define your best interests - even subconsciously - as WhiteCentric, then your interests align pretty closely with MAGA.

And you've got all the cover you need - again - as the media generously hands you the convenient rationalization of "Inflation Fears" (this year's version of "Economic Anxiety").

A Rant

I don't know this guy - he's new to me. Good rant tho.

Off_JaWaggon

Q & A

Q:

Want some help buying a house? $25,000 for a down payment. Or maybe we could build a few million places that are more affordable.

A:

Nah

Q:

Could you use $50,000 to start a business?

A:

Nah

Q:

How 'bout we pay for some childcare?

A:

Nope

Q:

Tax breaks for middle- and low-income wage earners?

A:Pffft

Q:

Union support and a minimum wage hike? 

A: Big whoop

Q:

Well, maybe we could go after corporate collusion and price fixing and market manipulation?

A: Yawn

Q:

OK - so, what are your issues?

A:

We need eggs at 2 bucks a dozen, and gas at 2-fifty a gallon.

And, oh yeah - shoot a few border-crossers for us - and put that on pay-per-view.

The Undecided

Overheard

Here are your choices for breakfast:

On one plate, there's a bowl of lumpy, runny, oily hangover squirts.

On the other plate is a short stack, two strips of crispy bacon, and an egg - sunny side up.

That's it. Those are the options - but you're telling me you can't decide until you know a little more about the fucking pancakes?

Stoopid GOP Voters

I know we're not supposed to call the other side a bunch fuckin' idiots, and I promise to stop calling them a buncha fuckin' idiots when they stop acting like a buncha fuckin' idiots.

Classic - make the proposed action look like it's going to do one thing, when it's actually intended to do something pretty much exactly the opposite of what you've been telling your constituents you intend to do. By the time they start to catch on, it's too late - ain't nothin' they can do - and if your Messaging Team has their shit together, the rubes will be glad to pretend it's what they wanted all along.

The Daddy State

Fake it 'til you break it.

Don't Get Stoopid

It's Come Down To This?

Wondering if we'll still be OK after these midterms?

Got news for ya: we're not OK now.

Here we are at this end of at least 4½ billion years of evolution, and the boomers are transfixed by gadgets designed to take their money (in a place where the casino bosses have bought enough politicians to make it illegal not to take their money), using their big ol' monkey brains to poke a button - basically playing Musical Slots - staring at a screen, expecting glory to arrive any second in the form of a 100,000-dollar jackpot, financed by the half-a-million dollars these idiots are pumping into those stupid machines.

WE ARE NOT OK

Today's Brian

Brain Tyler Cohen - Liz Cheney and a criminal referral

I'd consider giving up one of my nuts if the Press Poodles would stop framing their questions in GOP talking points.

And if they're "just asking the question so the interviewee can answer", then they can issue the damned caveat - "Republicans are coming at you with this, how do you respond - assuming you think it's worthy of a response?"

- or -

"Y'know, Liz - there's a buncha really stupid people in this country who can't tell the difference between a legit legal thing and the kinda political crap many in the GOP peddle all day every day. What can you say to countervail that stupidity?"

The Nail-Biter

Shelly Simonds won her election to the Virginia House of Delegates.

But no she didn't. Not if The Republican Guard has anything to say about it.

There are at least 3 real possibilities on what this voter intended - and 2 of them tilt the race to Simonds.

• First, the voter intended what the Repubs are claiming - straight GOP.
• Second, the voter went with all GOP, but maybe they know Simonds and they were making an exception. Whatever the reason, people split their ballots all the time.
• Third, the strike-thru on the Simonds bubble means the same as the strike-thru on the Gillespie bubble.

This thing was tossed out on the first accounting, and again on the recount, but suddenly, it's magically resurrected when Yancey needs just one more vote.

It's a classic Under-Vote.

Simonds is challenging the decision in court, and I guess we don't find out what happens next for several more days.

Careerism On Steroids and Triple Shot Espresso

We're not talking about if there will be an implosion, but when.

New York Magazine:

The president is a 70-year-old child whose TV time must be closely monitored — because any news story that upsets his ego will trigger a temper tantrum followed by irrational demands that his indulgent, overwhelmed guardians will be helpless to refuse.

Or so Donald Trump’s aides keep confiding to the nearest available reporter.

On Sunday, one of the president’s confidantes told Politico that his staffers have to “control information that may infuriate him,” a task made difficult by the fact that the leader of the free world “gets bored and likes to watch TV.”

-and-

Nearly a dozen of Trump’s closest confidantes helped plant an embarrassing news story about how their boss can’t handle embarrassing news stories. Which is to say: A president who prizes loyalty in his subordinates has already been betrayed by a huge swath of his inner circle.

 

hat tip = Bob and Chez Podcast

Telling

GOP voters are begging the people they voted into office not to fuck 'em over by repealing ACA, and those representatives are high-fiving each other for moving to repeal it anyway.

What does that tell us about the GOP?

What does it tell us about ourselves?

What does it say about how fucked up it has to get before we figure out that it's fucked up?