Mar 8, 2020

COVID-19 Update


A webinar hosted by The American Hospital Association (the biggest player in the accreditation business) leaked.

Business Insider:

Hospitals are bracing for millions of Americans to be hospitalized as part of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.

The presentation, titled "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19" happened February 26, with representatives from the National Ebola Training and Education Center.

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

Lawler's estimates include:
  • 4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
  • 96 million cases overall in the US
  • 480,000 deaths
  • Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.
These numbers are actually a little better than the ones I put up a few days ago - except for the Deaths. That one's pretty fuckin' scary.

One thing that could be in the works to make the problem a lot worse than it has to be:

People are being advised to self-quarantine for 10-15 days.

I'd like to know what genius thinks a guy barely scraping by on 10 or 12 bucks an hour is going to bite the bullet - for the greater good of course - and miss 2 weeks of work when his "benefits" don't include sick days.

Now factor in the chance that that guy has the insurance necessary to pay for a visit to his doctor - and for the cost of the test itself - which the doc may not even have because we haven't been able to scale up the manufacture or the distribution of the fucking test kits in the first fucking place.

Veep Mike Pence was asked the other day if people would be tested even if they couldn't pay for the tests, and Pence wouldn't answer the question.

And we're hearing stories of people knowing they've been exposed, but going about their daily routines like they're happy to be the designated Typhoid Mary.
The probability of containing this thing, and minimizing the destruction, is dependent directly on the people least likely to be of any help at all.

Good News: this is not an existential threat to humankind, or to civilization. Living out your fantasies about surviving in the aftermath of the apocalypse will just have to wait.

Bad News: it's looking like 6 million people could die because of it.

Worse News: don't believe for one fucking minute there's no one looking to make bank and lots of political hay from it. Rent-Seeking Authoritarians love a good threatening situation that makes us think in terms of "running to Daddy's arms for that warm fuzzy feeling of comfort and security."


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