Jun 11, 2020

COVID-19 Update

Steady Growth Rates between 1.01 - 1.02




WaPo:

As coronavirus cases rise nationwide, public health experts urge caution

When Gov. Doug Ducey allowed Arizona’s stay-at-home order to expire on May 15, 340 patients were in intensive care units statewide due to the novel coronavirus — the largest number since the beginning of the pandemic. Public health experts at the University of Arizona spent the week before publicly pleading with Ducey to postpone reopening, suggesting cases in the state were still projected to grow.

About two weeks later, the maximum amount of time it takes the virus to incubate, Arizona began seeing a precipitous rise in cases and a flood of new hospitalizations, straining medical resources and forcing the state’s top medical official to reissue a March order urging all hospitals to activate emergency plans.

What Arizona is experiencing could be an ominous sign. More than a dozen states are showing new highs in the number of positive coronavirus cases or hospitalizations, according to Washington Post data, a few weeks after lifting restrictions on most businesses and large gatherings.

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“Worse times are ahead,” said Joe Gerald, an associate professor and public health researcher at the University of Arizona who has been part of an academic team providing projections to the state health department. “The preponderance of evidence indicates community transmission is increasing.”
Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Utah all set new highs in seven-day rolling case averages Wednesday, according to Post data.

Montana, Arkansas, Utah, Arizona and Texas have all seen coronavirus hospitalizations rise by at least 35 percent in the weeks since Memorial Day.

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