Slouching Towards Oblivion

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

COVID-19 Update

Out of every 1,974 Americans who were alive in February this year, 1 of them is dead now because of COVID-19.

An American has died of COVID-19 every 99 seconds for the last 6 months, 11 days.

Yesterday, an American died of COVID-19 every 57 seconds.

Out of every 10 Americans who are dead now because of COVID-19, 6 of them are dead because 45* panicked and went limp at the moment of truth. Or worse - he made a conscious decision not to act, motivated by something so monstrously perverse that most of us won't want to be told about it even if someone figures it out.

And, again, the number of Cases could be as much as 10 times higher than is being reported, and the number of Deaths could be 2 or 3 times higher.

MedPage Today, from about 3 weeks ago:

... in 7 of these 10 sites, researchers estimated there were more than 10 times as many infections as reported cases, the authors wrote in JAMA Internal Medicine. The CDC has also created an interactive, public dashboard with data from the 10 sites, which the agency said would be regularly updated.

An accompanying editorial in JAMA by Tyler Brown, MD, and Rochelle Walensky, MD, both of Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, characterized this study as "a substantial step forward" and an "important reference point" for serosurveys to come. Previous serologic studies have been "narrow in scope, focused on specific geographic catchment areas or local cohorts captured via unrestricted, 'walk-up' enrollment," they said.

In contrast, the new CDC analysis drew on blood samples collected for routine healthcare purposes such as cholesterol screenings and inpatient monitoring.

Brown and Walensky noted relevant points this data brings up in light of discussions around public health, starting with debunking the idea of "herd immunity" for COVID-19 as of now. The editorialists noted the herd immunity threshold is generally considered to be 60% to 70%, and as of mid-May, 7 of 10 locations were experiencing "substantial, as-yet uncontrolled increases" in new cases.




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