Slouching Towards Oblivion

Saturday, November 27, 2021

COVID-19 Update

In yesterday's update, there was a quote from a guy in Europe bitching about how hard it is to run his business, and this sat on my brain:
“It seems the government is always running behind the facts,” Dossche said. “They shouldn’t be changing the rules every two weeks.”

I hate that shit. Governments aren't changing the rules just for grins-n-giggles, dummy. Governments have to change their response to circumstances dictated by the virus, and people's behavior.

Maybe you'd like it better if we go back to leeches and incantations - that way, you never have to be burdened with learning anything new, and you can just die after infecting your whole neighborhood.


I'll make a radical assumption here, and say you may be ignorant but that doesn't make you uneducable.

So here's the short version - it's not my job to change your fuckin' diaper. Time to grow up a little.

WaPo: (freebie)

What to know about the omicron variant of the coronavirus

A new variant of the coronavirus that causes covid-19 is raising concern around the globe.

South Africa on Thursday confirmed that scientists there had detected a variant with a high number of mutations that could make it more easily transmissible. On Friday, the World Health Organization labeled it a “variant of concern,” a classification it has given to only four other variants so far. The global health agency also gave it a Greek letter designation: omicron.

Several countries, including the United States, moved to curb flights on Friday Saturday from southern Africa, while pharmaceutical makers vowed to keep close watch on how well their vaccines hold up against the new variant.

Thus far, there is too little research to draw conclusions, with experts urging caution but not panic.

“This is the most concerning variant we’ve seen since delta,” Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said in an interview Friday. “It’s going to take a really high bar for something to take over for delta, and we don’t know whether this is going to do it.”

Here’s what you need to know:

Where has omicron been confirmed?

Although it is unknown where the variant came from, it was first detected in the southern region of Africa. On Tuesday, scientists in South Africa made data of the variant public. Noticing the distinct sequence, a virologist at Imperial College London, Tom Peacock, raised alarms about the “really awful Spike mutation profile.”

In South Africa, where just 35 percent of people are fully vaccinated, the variant has begun to spread rapidly. A number of factors could be contributing to the rising caseload, including the nation’s low vaccination rate. Researchers are also working to determine if the mutations make the variant more easily transmissible or if it has a mechanism that allows the variant to escape a natural or vaccine-acquired immune response.

At a news conference Friday, Ian Sanne, an infectious-disease specialist who is a member of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Council on covid-19, said that “Overall, we do think it’s more transmissible.”

Thus far, some cases have also been identified in Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel. But officials from a number of countries warn that the variant, also known as B.1.1.529, may already be spreading undetected.

The United Kingdom on Friday reported that while no cases have been detected there, the variant’s large number of mutations “are likely to be biologically significant.”

Scientists have cautioned that while more cases are expected to crop up, it’s unclear if the variant will match the reach of the delta variant, by far the world’s most dominant, according to the WHO.

“It’s concerning, but it’s still iffy,” Topol said.

What do we know about the variant?

While there’s much to still learn, scientists have confirmed some important details.

For one, its genetic profile is unique from other circulating variants, meaning it represents a new lineage of the virus.

The new variant is distinct from other variants in another critical way: There’s a greater number of mutations. Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said there are more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that binds to human cells, allowing it to gain entry.

Scientists are worried that could mean omicron is more transmissible and better at evading the body’s immune defenses, making vaccines less effective.

“The one good news, if there’s any good news, is that this variant, the B.1.1.529, can be detected by one particular PCR assay,” de Oliveira said at a news conference, meaning diagnostic labs can quickly identify the new variant rather than having to rely on whole genome sequencing.

Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has conducted mutational scanning experiments for the B.1.1.529 variant, noted that three mutations of the variant could make the virus a more elusive target for antibodies produced through vaccines or prior infection but cautioned that there is still much to learn.

“What that’s going to mean for how likely people are to get infected, even if they’ve been vaccinated, it’s too early to say,” Bloom said, noting that more traditional experiments should provide more data. “But having a drop in the antibody neutralization is never a good thing.”

What’s being done about it?

Within days of the discovery of the variant, several countries began imposing restrictions on flights to and from South Africa and its neighbors.

Britain, Australia, Japan, Thailand and others introduced travel bans or quarantine rules for air passengers arriving from the southern African region. The European Union and the United States have also announced restrictions.

The U.S. restrictions will apply to travelers from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi. They do not apply to American citizens and lawful permanent residents. President Biden, in a statement, said the move is “a precautionary measure,” and urged Americans to get vaccinated and get booster shots.

“If you have not gotten vaccinated, or have not taken your children to get vaccinated, now is the time,” he said.

Officials in South Africa expressed concern about the travel bans, while some experts cast doubt on the efficacy of the restrictions and whether they could “give a false sense of security.” The nation’s health minister, Joe Phaahla, characterized them as a “draconian reaction.”

“It really doesn’t look scientific in any way,” he said. “That kind of reaction is quite a knee-jerk and panicked and almost wants to put a blame on other countries rather than work together.”

Do we know if vaccines are effective?

Even if the variant limits the effectiveness of vaccines, it’s unlikely to completely subvert the protections that vaccines provide, experts say.

“My expectation would be that the mutations in this variant are not going to ablate or completely escape that type of antibody neutralization” from vaccines or prior infection, Bloom said.

“Regardless of whether or not this new variant ends up spreading, I would suggest that people do what they can to minimize their chances of getting infected with SARS-CoV-2,” Bloom added, referring to the virus by its technical name. “There are certain obvious things you can do: Get vaccinated, get a booster vaccination, wear a mask.”

Though the sample size is still small, Sanne said physicians have seen a higher rate of breakthrough infections among those previously vaccinated in South Africa. But he added that initial data indicates the vaccines are still proving effective, with the majority of hospitalizations being among those who hadn’t gotten the shot.

“We have every indication that the vaccines are still effective in preventing severe disease and/or complications,” he said. “The data, however, is small and early.”

Meanwhile, vaccine-makers, which have done preliminary research using vaccines with formulas tailored for other variants, are working to understand how well their vaccines can counter omicron.

“In the event that vaccine-escape variant emerges, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days, subject to regulatory approval,” a Pfizer spokesperson said in a statement.

Given the spread of B.1.1.529 in South Africa, several experts have pointed to the critical need to vaccinate underserved countries to bolster the world’s protection from future, more-evasive variants.




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