Keep in mind that people who know about such things have been saying since the beginning that almost every government is under-reporting the numbers - sometimes in good faith, because it's really hard to count things in large numbers for a variety of reasons, and sometimes in very bad faith because politicians can give themselves a political disadvantage if they reports those numbers accurately.
WaPo: (pay Wall)
As Russia and the West face off over Ukraine, Russia battles omicron at home
As Russia and the West face off over Ukraine, Moscow is grappling with another crisis at home: a record-breaking coronavirus surge that has strained the country’s health-care system and sickened government officials, including inside the Kremlin.
The number of new coronavirus cases in Russia has soared since mid-January, setting daily infection records for two weeks straight. Authorities blame the highly transmissible omicron variant, which they now say is dominant in Russia.
According to official figures, the number of daily new cases on Friday reached more than 168,000 nationwide, compared to about 15,000 in early January. Almost 18,000 people are hospitalized with covid-19.
These figures, however, are probably a vast undercount.
“It is obvious that this number is higher and possibly much higher,” because “many people don’t get tested” or have symptoms, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week as new daily cases reached 100,000.
He also admitted that a number of people in the administration of President Vladimir Putin had been infected with the virus.
“The vast majority continue to work from home after having isolated themselves,” Peskov said, according to the Associated Press.
But even as some officials warned of the growing pressure on the health-care system, Putin on Thursday ruled out a lockdown.
At a meeting with Russian business executives that aired on state television, he said that the government is considering easing restrictions on people who come into contact with infected individuals, Agence France-Presse reported. Under the current rules, people must self-isolate for seven days after exposure.
“Life goes on” despite the “difficult” coronavirus situation, the AP quoted Putin as saying on Wednesday.
His prime minister, however, struck a different tone when speaking to a government coordination council this week. Mikhail Mishustin called for more widespread coronavirus testing and said that the government would allocate additional funding for virus sequencing and test components.
For much of the pandemic, Russia has eschewed public health measures, while mask mandates go largely unenforced. It also has an especially low coronavirus vaccination rate, compared with other European nations, leaving much of the population vulnerable to the rapidly spreading pathogen.
Skyrocketing cases are “increasing the burden on the entire health-care system, especially primary care,” Mishustin said Wednesday, according to a news release. “Overloaded doctors have to work practically around the clock in outpatient clinics and help patients who are receiving treatment at home.”
Some hospitals in Russia have postponed scheduled operations as resources are diverted to treating covid-19 patients, said Semyon Galperin, the head of the Doctors Defense League rights group. The Moscow Times reported this week that 15 regions had suspended routine medical care.
“People are just tired,” Galperin said. “Patients are tired. Doctors are tired. Everybody is tired.”
According to Viktor Zakharov, head of the Intelligent Logistics Center at St. Petersburg University, the number of new daily coronavirus cases may exceed 200,000 by late February.
At a news conference Thursday, Zakharov, who authored a mathematical model to track the spread of the virus, said that as many as 4 million people may be simultaneously ill when the omicron wave peaks around Feb. 22.
Alexei Kouprianov, an independent analyst who has tracked covid-19 data in St. Petersburg, recorded a near doubling of cases in Russia’s second-largest city over the past seven days, compared with the week before. Hospitalizations also rose but at a slower rate.
In the city, Kouprianov said, lines at clinics treating covid-19 patients stretch around the buildings and contacts at local hospitals say that many doctors are out sick.
“In Russia, [coronavirus] is like wildfire in the forest: Nobody cares,” Kouprianov said.
At a meeting with Russian business executives that aired on state television, he said that the government is considering easing restrictions on people who come into contact with infected individuals, Agence France-Presse reported. Under the current rules, people must self-isolate for seven days after exposure.
“Life goes on” despite the “difficult” coronavirus situation, the AP quoted Putin as saying on Wednesday.
His prime minister, however, struck a different tone when speaking to a government coordination council this week. Mikhail Mishustin called for more widespread coronavirus testing and said that the government would allocate additional funding for virus sequencing and test components.
For much of the pandemic, Russia has eschewed public health measures, while mask mandates go largely unenforced. It also has an especially low coronavirus vaccination rate, compared with other European nations, leaving much of the population vulnerable to the rapidly spreading pathogen.
Skyrocketing cases are “increasing the burden on the entire health-care system, especially primary care,” Mishustin said Wednesday, according to a news release. “Overloaded doctors have to work practically around the clock in outpatient clinics and help patients who are receiving treatment at home.”
Some hospitals in Russia have postponed scheduled operations as resources are diverted to treating covid-19 patients, said Semyon Galperin, the head of the Doctors Defense League rights group. The Moscow Times reported this week that 15 regions had suspended routine medical care.
“People are just tired,” Galperin said. “Patients are tired. Doctors are tired. Everybody is tired.”
According to Viktor Zakharov, head of the Intelligent Logistics Center at St. Petersburg University, the number of new daily coronavirus cases may exceed 200,000 by late February.
At a news conference Thursday, Zakharov, who authored a mathematical model to track the spread of the virus, said that as many as 4 million people may be simultaneously ill when the omicron wave peaks around Feb. 22.
Alexei Kouprianov, an independent analyst who has tracked covid-19 data in St. Petersburg, recorded a near doubling of cases in Russia’s second-largest city over the past seven days, compared with the week before. Hospitalizations also rose but at a slower rate.
In the city, Kouprianov said, lines at clinics treating covid-19 patients stretch around the buildings and contacts at local hospitals say that many doctors are out sick.
“In Russia, [coronavirus] is like wildfire in the forest: Nobody cares,” Kouprianov said.
The swell of new cases and strain on the system has highlighted Russia’s vaccine hesitancy problem. It was one of the first nations to roll out coronavirus vaccines, with an abundant supply of its homegrown Sputnik V shot. But it has vaccinated only about half of its population so far.
General ambivalence, as well as mistrust, have prevented many adults from getting vaccinated.
About 70 percent of people infected with the omicron variant in Russia are unvaccinated, Anna Popova, the head of Russia’s consumer health watchdog, said last week, according to the Moscow Times.
But even as hospitals fill up, there appears to be little public appetite for far-reaching restrictions. Russia’s parliament last month indefinitely postponed the introduction of a system that would have limited the activities of unvaccinated people.
Still, some regions are implementing new measures. At least five have switched children to remote learning and four banned mass gatherings. The Tula region south of Moscow announced a 10-day regionwide holiday, the Moscow Times reported.
Russia’s labor ministry recommended this week that employers switch to remote work. Mishustin, the prime minister, told cabinet members on Jan. 21 to hold meetings online “where possible.”
Nationwide, deaths have fallen over the past month, according to official counts. But deaths typically lag infections, and Russian experts have accused authorities of dramatically undercounting deaths over the course of the pandemic.
Russia’s state coronavirus task force has reported 333,357 deaths from covid-19 — the highest toll in Europe. State statistics agency Rosstat has put the toll significantly higher, at 681,100 deaths between April 2020 and December 2021, according to the AP.
Examining excess mortality reveals an even starker discrepancy: A Moscow Times analysis found nearly a million excess deaths by the end of 2021. But experts who challenge the government’s pandemic data have faced retribution from authorities.
For now, deaths in St. Petersburg have held steady at around 60 per day, Kouprianov said.
“What I’m afraid of is that deaths will follow the curve of hospitalizations, but with a delay,” he said.
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