COVID-19 Update

There's a real probability that "the pandemic" is never over. There's always one that's "ending", while another one is happening now, while still another one is coming soon to a fucked up public health system near you.

A buggy virus is part of the whole life thing that "started" on this planet about 3½ billion years ago - and it may have actually started somewhere else long before that because the building blocks that Mama Nature uses to put things like life together have existed since the beginning, which in itself may be a misperception because it's also possible there simply is no beginning, which implies there's no end, and now I've gone off-track and I'm making my own head hurt with this shit.

Sorry.

WaPo: (pay wall)

Opinion
Is the pandemic really over? Yes and no.

Anthony S. Fauci, the president’s medical adviser and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was asked directly by Judy Woodruff of the PBS NewsHour this week, “How close are we to the end of this pandemic?” The question is on everyone’s mind. “We are certainly right now in this country out of the pandemic phase,” he answered, hopefully. Dr. Fauci hedged the next day, saying, “I probably should have said the acute component of the pandemic phase.” He told The Post the nation is “out of the full-blown explosive pandemic phase.” The public seems to agree: According to the latest Marist College poll, 73 percent of Americans are optimistic that the United States is nearing the end of the pandemic, while President Biden’s approval rating on handling it is 53 percent.

So, is it over?

Barely three months ago, at the peak of the omicron outbreak, the nation was suffering more than 800,000 new cases a day; now it is down to about 53,000, not optimal but certainly lower. Average daily U.S. deaths are about 300, one-tenth of what they were in January 2021, before the vaccine rollout. Hospital admissions are down 91 percent from the peak three months ago. All of these indicators show slight upticks lately, but nothing like the surge of omicron last fall.

Why? After a chaotic and difficult pandemic response, the U.S. population might be more immune than ever before. A study of seroprevalence, or antibodies found in blood samples during the omicron wave, published April 26 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that nearly 60 percent of the U.S. population had been infected. This leaves behind a significant amount of natural immunity, although how lasting it will be is not known. Added to that, 70 percent of the eligible U.S. population is fully vaccinated (two shots) and more than 47 percent have at least one booster. Taken together, this could be the foundation of an “immunity wall” to protect against the virus, which will not disappear but may cease to cause massive sickness, overburdened hospitals and runaway deaths.

For a pandemic-weary public, there are cautions to be heeded. No one knows when or whether another variant of the virus will emerge, either more transmissible or more severe. It could still happen. Those who remain unvaccinated or unboosted at this point must not be sanguine — they are vulnerable. Also, to keep up the pace of vaccine and therapeutic development and manufacturing, as well as diagnostic testing, Congress still needs to pass the pending pandemic relief bill, or the nation could be caught short in the autumn. Another piece of unfinished business is emergency use authorization for pediatric coronavirus vaccines. Hot spots of virus continue to emerge, and the public should wear face masks in crowded, enclosed conditions. Also: Pay attention to improved ventilation and air filtration.

Elsewhere in the world, the pandemic is hardly over. China is battling a major outbreak; many poor countries are yet to be vaccinated. The “acute” phase might be easing in the United States, but the virus has not vanished.