DAILY DEATH TOLL DECLINING GLOBALLY
This week at IHME in our update on COVID, we do not have a new model release. That will be coming next week, but we continue to monitor the pandemic. We are really reaching, at the global level, an extraordinarily low level of the impact of COVID. In fact, the death toll at the daily level has now reached the level we last saw around March 20, 2020. We continue to see this very favorable trend down.
LOW OR DECLINING CASES IN CHINA, SOUTH AFRICA, EUROPE, AND THE US
At the location level, the strict lockdown policy, zero-COVID strategy in China continues to work, although it has great economic effects. The reported cases, as far as we can tell in China, are now down to a very low level. We do expect in our modeling, and continue to expect, that it will be hard to sustain that, given the considerable number of susceptible individuals that are still in China.
Elsewhere, where there were surges related to either BA.4 or BA.5 in South Africa, that's peaked and continues to decline. The BA.2 surges in Europe seem to have all peaked and are pretty much declining.
Here in the US, as we expected, at the national level it appears that case reporting has peaked and is starting to come down, but of course that varies by location. The decline is more in the northeast. Other states are still on the upswing, but nationally we should start to see the numbers come down.
We do continue to expect, in the absence of the emergence of a variant with considerable immune escape on Omicron, that we will see quite low numbers through the next few months.
WE MUST CONTINUE MONITORING FOR NEW VARIANTS
Of course, we've learned through the pandemic that the emergence of a new variant can completely change the story in a very quick manner. But for now, it does appear like those countries that are largely returning to pre-COVID levels of interaction and very low levels of mask use will continue to see low or even declining transmission, and certainly low or declining impacts in terms of death, given the slow but steady scale-up of the use of antivirals. So, there are very favorable conditions for the moment.
We do believe it's important to keep up surveillance and to be ready on a country-by-country basis to respond with booster shots, with access to antivirals, and if a dangerous, high-severity new variant with immune escape emerged, to be able to reconsider other actions as well.
COVID Q&A
As COVID cases have declined, so have the number of coronavirus questions submitted to MLive by its readers.
But in the last two weeks, MLive’s public health team has received questions about repeat COVID infections, the rate of breakthrough cases in the vaccinated population, and the timeline for future vaccine eligibility.
Below are some of the latest questions, along with answers collected from local and federal health officials, studies and guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Remember, to get your questions answered, submit them by email to covidquestions@mlive.com.
Q: How many times can you catch COVID?
Repeat coronavirus infections are a reality, in part because the immunity from vaccines and previous infections wanes over time, and because the latest variants are better at evading neutralizing antibodies than prior strains.
Mutations between variants allow the virus to evade the body’s defenses, opening the door for re-infection. Thus, there is no set number of times you can get COVID.
Dr. Matthew Sims, an infectious disease specialist for Beaumont Health, said he has heard from patients who got sick with COVID late last year and now they are sick again, about six months later.
In shorter timeframes, he has also seen individuals who happen to test positive again after a few weeks, though in those cases he said it is likely the same infection that has not fully cleared.
“If you were infected with BA.1 (the original Omicron variant) back in January, you don’t seem to have a lot of protection against this strain now (BA.12.1),” Sims said. “It’s probably about 4 to 6 months that you’re protected; that’s why they’re doing roughly six-month boosters.”
Q: What percentage of people who have been fully vaccinated get COVID?
Michigan’s breakthrough case data is not as good as it was throughout much of the pandemic, because universal case investigation is no longer being performed.
The state’s latest count, which surveyed from Jan. 15, 2021 through April 8, 2022, found that less than 30% of reported cases were among fully vaccinated people. Fully vaccinated people also made up 18% of hospitalizations and 22% of COVID deaths during that time.
While the data alone is not perfect, health officials have said it offers support for the notion that people are better off vaccinated compared to their non-vaccinated counterparts, who are at higher risk for more severe illness if infected.
Anecdotally, there appear to be more breakthrough cases in recent history compared to the first months after vaccines became widely available. Doctors say that is because the vaccines in use were created based off the initial strains of the coronavirus from 2020.
Since then, we have pivoted from the original strain, through Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and now multiple strains of Omicron. Along the way, the virus has mutated to better protect itself against immunity.
“It’s pretty clear that the vaccines that we’re using right now, with the current circulating variants, do not prevent infection,” Sims said.
“People are getting infected despite being vaccinated, and previous infection is not necessarily preventing them from getting re-infected. But what is happening is vaccines are very clearly standing up and doing a good job at keeping people out of the hospital. That’s waned a little bit but vaccines are still showing excellent protection against hospitalization, severe illness and death, despite the fact that there is an increased risk for getting an infection with the new circulating sub-variants.”
Numerous vaccine developers, including Pfizer and Moderna, are working on omicron-specific boosters, which health officials say would be a key step in catching up with the virus’s mutations. An updated booster could be ready by the fall.
Q: When will children younger than 5 be able to get vaccinated?
Advisors for the FDA are scheduled to consider recommending vaccines for children 6 months to 4 years old on Tuesday and Wednesday, June 14 and 15. The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee will hold the public meetings virtually, and live stream their discussions.
Both Pfizer and Moderna have submitted clinical data indicating their shots are safe and effective at preventing severe COVID-19 when administered to younger kids. Moderna recommends two doses of its shot, while Pfizer suggests three doses for the best results.
Once the advisory committee of independent vaccine experts votes on their recommendation, the FDA will determine whether to expand each company’s emergency use authorization. Then it will be up to the CDC to give the final green light.
As for a potential timeline, the White House has said vaccinations for this age group could begin as early as Tuesday, June 21. If things move smoothly, local health systems anticipate being able to provide vaccines for children under 5 in their primary care offices in early July.
Of course, we've learned through the pandemic that the emergence of a new variant can completely change the story in a very quick manner. But for now, it does appear like those countries that are largely returning to pre-COVID levels of interaction and very low levels of mask use will continue to see low or even declining transmission, and certainly low or declining impacts in terms of death, given the slow but steady scale-up of the use of antivirals. So, there are very favorable conditions for the moment.
We do believe it's important to keep up surveillance and to be ready on a country-by-country basis to respond with booster shots, with access to antivirals, and if a dangerous, high-severity new variant with immune escape emerged, to be able to reconsider other actions as well.
COVID Q&A
As COVID cases have declined, so have the number of coronavirus questions submitted to MLive by its readers.
But in the last two weeks, MLive’s public health team has received questions about repeat COVID infections, the rate of breakthrough cases in the vaccinated population, and the timeline for future vaccine eligibility.
Below are some of the latest questions, along with answers collected from local and federal health officials, studies and guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Remember, to get your questions answered, submit them by email to covidquestions@mlive.com.
Q: How many times can you catch COVID?
Repeat coronavirus infections are a reality, in part because the immunity from vaccines and previous infections wanes over time, and because the latest variants are better at evading neutralizing antibodies than prior strains.
Mutations between variants allow the virus to evade the body’s defenses, opening the door for re-infection. Thus, there is no set number of times you can get COVID.
Dr. Matthew Sims, an infectious disease specialist for Beaumont Health, said he has heard from patients who got sick with COVID late last year and now they are sick again, about six months later.
In shorter timeframes, he has also seen individuals who happen to test positive again after a few weeks, though in those cases he said it is likely the same infection that has not fully cleared.
“If you were infected with BA.1 (the original Omicron variant) back in January, you don’t seem to have a lot of protection against this strain now (BA.12.1),” Sims said. “It’s probably about 4 to 6 months that you’re protected; that’s why they’re doing roughly six-month boosters.”
Q: What percentage of people who have been fully vaccinated get COVID?
Michigan’s breakthrough case data is not as good as it was throughout much of the pandemic, because universal case investigation is no longer being performed.
The state’s latest count, which surveyed from Jan. 15, 2021 through April 8, 2022, found that less than 30% of reported cases were among fully vaccinated people. Fully vaccinated people also made up 18% of hospitalizations and 22% of COVID deaths during that time.
While the data alone is not perfect, health officials have said it offers support for the notion that people are better off vaccinated compared to their non-vaccinated counterparts, who are at higher risk for more severe illness if infected.
Anecdotally, there appear to be more breakthrough cases in recent history compared to the first months after vaccines became widely available. Doctors say that is because the vaccines in use were created based off the initial strains of the coronavirus from 2020.
Since then, we have pivoted from the original strain, through Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and now multiple strains of Omicron. Along the way, the virus has mutated to better protect itself against immunity.
“It’s pretty clear that the vaccines that we’re using right now, with the current circulating variants, do not prevent infection,” Sims said.
“People are getting infected despite being vaccinated, and previous infection is not necessarily preventing them from getting re-infected. But what is happening is vaccines are very clearly standing up and doing a good job at keeping people out of the hospital. That’s waned a little bit but vaccines are still showing excellent protection against hospitalization, severe illness and death, despite the fact that there is an increased risk for getting an infection with the new circulating sub-variants.”
Numerous vaccine developers, including Pfizer and Moderna, are working on omicron-specific boosters, which health officials say would be a key step in catching up with the virus’s mutations. An updated booster could be ready by the fall.
Q: When will children younger than 5 be able to get vaccinated?
Advisors for the FDA are scheduled to consider recommending vaccines for children 6 months to 4 years old on Tuesday and Wednesday, June 14 and 15. The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee will hold the public meetings virtually, and live stream their discussions.
Both Pfizer and Moderna have submitted clinical data indicating their shots are safe and effective at preventing severe COVID-19 when administered to younger kids. Moderna recommends two doses of its shot, while Pfizer suggests three doses for the best results.
Once the advisory committee of independent vaccine experts votes on their recommendation, the FDA will determine whether to expand each company’s emergency use authorization. Then it will be up to the CDC to give the final green light.
As for a potential timeline, the White House has said vaccinations for this age group could begin as early as Tuesday, June 21. If things move smoothly, local health systems anticipate being able to provide vaccines for children under 5 in their primary care offices in early July.
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