It should be obvious that US politics is a sewer, better suited to the worst possible comments section on the worst possible website. It's fucking awful in way to many ways.
I don't think that's happened by accident, and I don't think the Dark Money Gang is even trying to hide their cards anymore.
We are being divided on purpose, and at the same time, we're being told that being divided is the real problem, and the solution is to go with a Third Party.
Bullshit. Standard Daddy State Divide-n-Conquer bullshit.
We can spend the time and effort it takes to sort through some of the shit and come to some basic conclusions about our approximate position on the old Left/Right spectrum, but an awful lot of people don't feel motivated for whatever reason, or they don't have the intellectual interest (or the mental horsepower) to do the work.
For my own bad self, I've been chided for being part of the problem - "our deeply divided nation" - because I try to pay some attention to what's going on, and I come down (mostly) on the progressive side of things. So plenty of people see me as way too partisan. And I'm betting that a majority of those people haven't stopped to think about the difference between ideology and partisanship, because then they'd have to make some kind of decision, which puts them right back into a position where they have to figure out what the issue is and where they stand on it, when what they really want is a sensible-sounding excuse not to engage at all.
Opinion
So - dilemma.
- If you do the responsible citizen-of-a-democracy thing and take a side, you risk being wrong, voting for the wrong guy, and made to look a fool - possibly in public
- If you shun the process by hiding behind Both-Sides-ism, then you can self-congratulate because you're "too smart to fall for any of that politics stuff", but you've handed your right to self-determination to someone else
It may not feel right to be choosing the lesser of two evils, but why would you stand aside and let someone else choose the greater of those evils for you?
Keep choosing the lesser of the two evils, and over time, the "lesser of the two evils" starts to look more like what it is: The greater good.
A No Labels candidate would likely throw the election to Trump
For most of our careers, the two of us have been on opposite sides of the political aisle. We regularly express our disagreements in a weekly point-counterpoint commentary on a digital platform in Maryland.
But we love our country more than we love our parties, and as we look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, we are in complete agreement: To save the American republic, former president Donald Trump must be defeated. And that’s why the centrist political organization No Labels must cease and desist from its effort to nominate a third-party candidate.
We agree on three points: (1) In a head-to-head general-election contest, Trump faces the same challenges to winning the popular vote as he has in the past, perhaps worse; (2) a moderate independent third-party candidate on the ballot gives Trump the best possible chance of winning reelection; and (3) with Trump saying he will seek reelection even if he is convicted of crimes, we can’t just hope that this threat will go away.
The coup that Trump and his cronies attempted after he lost the 2020 election represented the greatest threat to our democracy since the Civil War. That threat is ongoing. Trump is the Republican front-runner, and, at least so far, his indictments appear to have only intensified his support.
That might change as his legal troubles mount, but if he wins the GOP nomination for president, all Americans who believe in democracy must unite behind a single candidate to assure that Trump, in the words of then-Rep. Liz Cheney, “never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office.”
Even a wounded Trump will be formidable in 2024. Four out of 5 of his voters in 2020 told exit pollers they voted mostly “for [their] candidate” rather than “against his opponent.” Because he has so many hardcore loyalists, his vote is unlikely to fall significantly below its 2016 and 2020 level, about 46 percent.
Dedicated Trump loyalists don’t represent a majority of the electorate. That’s why he has lost the popular vote in both his presidential runs and did not top 47 percent in either. As long as the anti-Trump vote is unified behind a single candidate, Trump is very unlikely to win, as Joe Biden demonstrated in 2020. And this would most likely be the case in a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024.
But a third-party candidate dramatically changes the equation. If he or she takes even a small part of the anti-Trump vote away from Biden, Trump is likely to be returned to the White House. That’s why the No Labels effort poses such a danger to our democracy.
In the five states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — most likely to decide the 2024 election in the electoral college, the numbers tell the story. Together, they have 73 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump narrowly won all of them. In 2020, Biden did.
In all five of these swing states, Biden’s razor-thin margins came from a massive anti-Trump vote. In all of them, at least 1 in 3 Biden voters said they voted mainly against Trump; in Wisconsin, that number was 38 percent; in Arizona (where No Labels has already secured a spot on the 2024 ballot) a whopping 45 percent.
Even a small drop-off from his 2020 anti-Trump vote would put President Biden in a precarious position in 2024. He has no margin for error. Just 44,000 votes out of more than 10 million cast in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — less than half of 1 percent — were the difference between the Biden presidency and a tie in the electoral college that would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives.
Our calculations show that if a No Labels candidate had won just 3 percent of the popular vote in 2020, Trump would probably be sitting in the White House.
Given Biden’s current low approval rating, it’s not unreasonable to assume a No Labels candidate in 2024 could peel off at least 15 percent of the anti-Trump vote from the president. If that happened, and Trump’s base stayed with him, Trump would win all five swing states comfortably and return to the Oval Office.
Early polling shows Biden and Trump running neck and neck, and every indication is that Biden will again need a big anti-Trump vote. In an April Wall Street Journal poll, 11.5 percent of voters said they disapproved of the way both Biden and Trump handled the presidency. Biden led among those voters by 54 percent to 15 percent. That advantage translates to about 4.5 percent of the total vote, giving Biden that much of a head start in the race. He’s likely to need every bit of that to overcome the intensity of the pro-Trump vote.
If the No Labels organization concludes it wants to put a third-party candidate in the race, that candidate would almost certainly throw the 2024 election to Trump. We need voices from all sides saying, “Not now, No Labels. For the good of the country, cease this third-party effort now.”
Al From, founder of the Democratic Leadership Council and author of “The New Democrats and the Return to Power,” is an adjunct professor of graduate studies in government at Johns Hopkins University.
Craig Fuller is a longtime Republican strategist and served as assistant to President Ronald Reagan for Cabinet affairs and chief of staff to Vice President George H.W. Bush.
For most of our careers, the two of us have been on opposite sides of the political aisle. We regularly express our disagreements in a weekly point-counterpoint commentary on a digital platform in Maryland.
But we love our country more than we love our parties, and as we look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, we are in complete agreement: To save the American republic, former president Donald Trump must be defeated. And that’s why the centrist political organization No Labels must cease and desist from its effort to nominate a third-party candidate.
We agree on three points: (1) In a head-to-head general-election contest, Trump faces the same challenges to winning the popular vote as he has in the past, perhaps worse; (2) a moderate independent third-party candidate on the ballot gives Trump the best possible chance of winning reelection; and (3) with Trump saying he will seek reelection even if he is convicted of crimes, we can’t just hope that this threat will go away.
The coup that Trump and his cronies attempted after he lost the 2020 election represented the greatest threat to our democracy since the Civil War. That threat is ongoing. Trump is the Republican front-runner, and, at least so far, his indictments appear to have only intensified his support.
That might change as his legal troubles mount, but if he wins the GOP nomination for president, all Americans who believe in democracy must unite behind a single candidate to assure that Trump, in the words of then-Rep. Liz Cheney, “never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office.”
Even a wounded Trump will be formidable in 2024. Four out of 5 of his voters in 2020 told exit pollers they voted mostly “for [their] candidate” rather than “against his opponent.” Because he has so many hardcore loyalists, his vote is unlikely to fall significantly below its 2016 and 2020 level, about 46 percent.
Dedicated Trump loyalists don’t represent a majority of the electorate. That’s why he has lost the popular vote in both his presidential runs and did not top 47 percent in either. As long as the anti-Trump vote is unified behind a single candidate, Trump is very unlikely to win, as Joe Biden demonstrated in 2020. And this would most likely be the case in a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024.
But a third-party candidate dramatically changes the equation. If he or she takes even a small part of the anti-Trump vote away from Biden, Trump is likely to be returned to the White House. That’s why the No Labels effort poses such a danger to our democracy.
In the five states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — most likely to decide the 2024 election in the electoral college, the numbers tell the story. Together, they have 73 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump narrowly won all of them. In 2020, Biden did.
In all five of these swing states, Biden’s razor-thin margins came from a massive anti-Trump vote. In all of them, at least 1 in 3 Biden voters said they voted mainly against Trump; in Wisconsin, that number was 38 percent; in Arizona (where No Labels has already secured a spot on the 2024 ballot) a whopping 45 percent.
Even a small drop-off from his 2020 anti-Trump vote would put President Biden in a precarious position in 2024. He has no margin for error. Just 44,000 votes out of more than 10 million cast in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — less than half of 1 percent — were the difference between the Biden presidency and a tie in the electoral college that would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives.
Our calculations show that if a No Labels candidate had won just 3 percent of the popular vote in 2020, Trump would probably be sitting in the White House.
Given Biden’s current low approval rating, it’s not unreasonable to assume a No Labels candidate in 2024 could peel off at least 15 percent of the anti-Trump vote from the president. If that happened, and Trump’s base stayed with him, Trump would win all five swing states comfortably and return to the Oval Office.
Early polling shows Biden and Trump running neck and neck, and every indication is that Biden will again need a big anti-Trump vote. In an April Wall Street Journal poll, 11.5 percent of voters said they disapproved of the way both Biden and Trump handled the presidency. Biden led among those voters by 54 percent to 15 percent. That advantage translates to about 4.5 percent of the total vote, giving Biden that much of a head start in the race. He’s likely to need every bit of that to overcome the intensity of the pro-Trump vote.
If the No Labels organization concludes it wants to put a third-party candidate in the race, that candidate would almost certainly throw the 2024 election to Trump. We need voices from all sides saying, “Not now, No Labels. For the good of the country, cease this third-party effort now.”
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