Severe cold will make for icy NFL games in Kansas City and Buffalo and frigid Iowa caucuses. It will also test the Texas power grid.
Stunning cold is crashing southward from the Arctic into the Lower 48 states. It could break hundreds of records this weekend into early next week. The bitter cold will arrive in the wake of another blockbuster storm sweeping the nation.
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The Arctic blast will produce the planet’s biggest negative temperature anomalies over parts of the western and central United States, in some places up to 60 degrees below normal. It will make for icy NFL playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo this weekend and frigid Iowa caucuses Monday, and could test the Texas power grid.
On Friday morning, the cold had already begun to invade large parts of the western and central United States. The most extreme cold was in northern Montana, where wind chills plunged as low as minus-60 with actual air temperatures as low as minus-30. Air temperatures plummeted into single digits as far south as southern Kansas and as far east as Minneapolis.
It is poised to turn even more frigid over the weekend.
Wind chills below minus-40 degrees are forecast for much of the northern Plains and northern Rockies. "This will pose an increased risk of frostbite on exposed skin and hypothermia,” the National Weather Service warned. “Have a cold survival kit if you must travel.”
More than 28 million people are under wind chill alerts from eastern Washington state to Missouri.
Many major population centers will endure at least two to three days of severe cold, with temperatures at least 30 degrees below normal and dangerously low wind chills, between the weekend and early next week, including Denver, Des Moines, Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
“We call it ‘life-threatening’ for a reason,” wrote the Weather Service office serving St. Louis on X, formerly Twitter. “Temperatures of this magnitude will cause harm if caught outdoors unprepared. Take it seriously. This kind of cold does not happen very often.”
This cold air outbreak is coming off a very mild start to winter, so it will come as a shock. Much of the northern contiguous United States has observed temperatures about five to 10 degrees above average since Dec. 1.
If current forecasts hold, areas home to more than 55 million Americans are expected to drop below zero through next Tuesday. Almost the entire Lower 48 faces temperatures at or below freezing at some point by the middle of next week.
Central U.S. faces brunt of polar plunge
This winter’s coldest air so far had already plunged into the southern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday morning.
Monday's high temperature forecast compared to normal. (weatherbell.com)
By Saturday, most of the northern and central Plains should experience highs below zero and widespread lows of minus-15 or colder.
Havre, a city in north central Montana, is forecast to reach minus-40 Saturday, shattering the record of minus-35 set in 1997. Several other cities in Montana are likely to set records including Helena, which is expected to dip to minus-38, surpassing the calendar day record from 1888. Wind chills could approach minus-60 or minus-70 both, with minus-40 to minus-60 spilling into the northern Plains.
Subzero record lows are a risk as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Oklahoma City is forecast to fall to minus-2 on Tuesday morning. From there, the zero-degree line probably extends across northern Arkansas and then toward Indianapolis. Houston may struggle to rise above freezing while much of the South hovers in the 20s on Tuesday.
Locations as far east as the spine of the Appalachians could also flirt with zero Tuesday morning.
McAllen, at the far southern tip of Texas, is forecast to set a record with a low of 28 Wednesday. Gulfport, on the coast of Mississippi could challenge its calendar day record with a low of 17.
In all, hundreds of daily cold records, for lows and highs, are possible from the shores of the Pacific Northwest to the Gulf Coast between Saturday and Wednesday. Cities where record lows are a good bet include Spokane, Wash.; Billings, Mont.; Kansas City, Mo.; Tulsa; and Lake Charles, La.
Texas grid faces a test
With the Arctic air mass sinking into the southern Plains, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) issued a weather watch for Jan. 15 to 17 (Monday through Wednesday) because of the anticipated high heating demand.
Texas’s statewide low temperature is forecast to average around 15 degrees Monday and Tuesday.
The grid is expected to hold, thanks to both increased capacity and the fact that the cold will not be as severe or prolonged as the extreme event in February 2021 when it collapsed.
Frigid for playoff football
Wind chill forecast for Saturday evening during the game in Kansas City. In and around the city, wind chills are forecast to be in the minus-20s to near minus-30. (weatherbell.com)
A wild card weekend kick-starts the playoffs with a throwback to frozen football games of old.
The Weather Service is predicting a high in the single digits in Kansas City on Saturday when the Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins.
The kickoff temperatures will probably be near or below zero before dropping to several degrees below zero in the fourth quarter. Factoring in frigid winds, it will feel like minus-20 or lower. There could be a snow flurry in the air, too.
When the Buffalo Bills face the Pittsburgh Steelers at home Sunday afternoon, fresh snow should be on the ground, and it may still be falling heavily at times from bands off Lake Erie.
A winter storm watch is in effect Saturday afternoon through Monday morning as a foot or more could fall in the most persistent bands. Several inches could accumulate during the game, with temperatures in the low or mid-20s. But it will feel closer to the single digits to near zero as winds gust to 40-plus mph.
Iowa caucuses face intense chill
High temperatures on Monday in Iowa are expected to remain below zero. (weatherbell.com)
The long-awaited opening salvo of the 2024 presidential election begins Monday with the caucuses in Iowa. And it will be nearly as cold as it gets.
Highs on Monday shouldn’t get above zero across the state, while deep snow remains on the ground from recent storms. Temperatures will hover just above record lows for the date in most areas. But Sioux City’s predicted high temperature of minus-3 would be the coldest on record.
By Monday evening, temperatures are forecast to approach ten below zero before dropping overnight to minus-15 or minus-20. Winds gusting around 30 mph could deliver wind chills of minus-20 to minus-30 during the evening, dipping as far as minus-40 overnight.
How cold will your city be?
Much of the central United States takes this Arctic attack head-on, and it is quite powerful considering our warming climate. Here’s how cold it is forecast to get in a number of cities, several of which could set calendar day record lows:
- Great Falls, Mont. — Minus-36 for Saturday’s low
- Sioux City, Iowa — Minus-20 for Sunday’s low
- Burlington, Ill. — Minus-14 for Monday’s low
- Fargo, N.D. — Minus-10 for Sunday’s low
- Kansas City — Minus-10 for Monday’s low
- Minneapolis — Minus 11 for Monday’s low
- Chicago — Minus-6 for Monday’s low
- Denver — Minus-8 for Monday’s low
- St. Louis — 0 for Sunday’s low
- Dallas — 11 for Tuesday’s low
- Houston — 21 for Tuesday’s low
Denver is among the cities that will experience a rather long stretch of abnormally cold temperatures. “Expect sub-zero wind chills all of Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and maybe Tuesday also,” wrote Chris Bianchi, a broadcast meteorologist based in Denver, on X, formerly Twitter. “Temps will probably be stuck in the single-digits in Denver all of Saturday-Monday. This isn’t common.”
In Chicago, highs probably won’t rise above the single digits Sunday through Tuesday. Even as far south as Little Rock, highs may be stuck in the 20s Sunday through Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, subzero cold is expected to stretch as far as southern Kansas and Missouri.
Although the Arctic blast will moderate farther east, the coldest air of the season will also arrive along the East Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Lows may dip to the mid- and upper teens along the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Boston on Wednesday, with interior areas in the single digits or colder. Freezing highs are probable from Washington northward.
Freezing overnight conditions may also dip to northern Florida by Wednesday, with the rest of the Gulf Coast probably sinking into the 20s.
When will the cold relent?
A model simulation for late next week continues to look favorable for cold in the eastern half of the nation with the flow pattern directing Arctic air from Canada southward. (Tropical Tidbits)
This first round of cold will ease late next week, though much of the country will remain chillier than normal. That’s before another faceoff with Arctic air that’s possible by the weekend of Jan. 20 and 21.
Any signals for a more substantial thaw are still about two weeks away. Forecasts made by longer-range models, while low-confidence, indicate milder than normal weather for the central state in early February but chilly weather holding on in the East, when El Niño events are known to sometimes fuel winter storms.
In Chicago, highs probably won’t rise above the single digits Sunday through Tuesday. Even as far south as Little Rock, highs may be stuck in the 20s Sunday through Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, subzero cold is expected to stretch as far as southern Kansas and Missouri.
Although the Arctic blast will moderate farther east, the coldest air of the season will also arrive along the East Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Lows may dip to the mid- and upper teens along the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Boston on Wednesday, with interior areas in the single digits or colder. Freezing highs are probable from Washington northward.
Freezing overnight conditions may also dip to northern Florida by Wednesday, with the rest of the Gulf Coast probably sinking into the 20s.
When will the cold relent?
A model simulation for late next week continues to look favorable for cold in the eastern half of the nation with the flow pattern directing Arctic air from Canada southward. (Tropical Tidbits)
This first round of cold will ease late next week, though much of the country will remain chillier than normal. That’s before another faceoff with Arctic air that’s possible by the weekend of Jan. 20 and 21.
Any signals for a more substantial thaw are still about two weeks away. Forecasts made by longer-range models, while low-confidence, indicate milder than normal weather for the central state in early February but chilly weather holding on in the East, when El Niño events are known to sometimes fuel winter storms.
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