May 31, 2024

Now What?



Will Trump go to jail? Can he be president? What’s next after guilty verdict?

Donald Trump was convicted Thursday on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his New York state hush money case.


Donald Trump was convicted Thursday on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his New York state hush money case, becoming the first former U.S. president to be tried and found guilty of a crime.

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The 12-person jury unanimously agreed on the verdict after deliberating for two days, finding that Trump falsified records to cover up a $130,000 payment before the 2016 election to an adult-film actress to keep her quiet about an alleged sexual encounter with him years earlier.

Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee in this year’s presidential race.

New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan scheduled Trump’s sentencing for July 11. Trump is required to report to the New York City Department of Probation for an interview about his background, his mental health and the circumstances of his case that will be used to help compile a presentencing report.

Will Trump go to jail?

The charges against Trump are nonviolent Class E felonies, the lowest level in New York, and they are punishable by 16 months to four years in state prison.
Legal experts said it is unlikely that Trump, 77, would be incarcerated, given that he had not previously been convicted of a crime.

Other options for Merchan include sentencing Trump to probation, which would mean he would need approval from a parole officer to travel outside the state. Trump also could be fined or granted a conditional discharge pegged to the requirement that he stay out of further legal trouble, legal experts said.

Can Trump still become president after being convicted?

Trump remains eligible to campaign for the presidency and serve if elected. The U.S. Constitution requires that presidential candidates be at least 35 years old, a natural-born U.S. citizen and a resident in the country for at least 14 years. The 14th Amendment, passed by Congress after the Civil War, bars anyone who participated in an insurrection from running for the presidency, but Trump has not been charged with insurrection in the three other criminal prosecutions that remain active against him.

If I may, and IMHO: the 14th amendment doesn't require the guy to be charged with, tried for, or convicted of insurrection. A Colorado court has judged him to have engaged in insurrection, and both the Colorado Supreme Court and SCOTUS have let that judgement stand.
Trump is an insurrectionist,
so he can't serve as POTUS.

And also too:
A convicted felon can't get
security clearance.

We have some serious shit we have to work out.

Can Trump appeal?

Trump’s legal team will have 30 days from the New York verdict to file notice of appeal and six months to file the full appeal. Any appeals process would probably extend beyond the Nov. 5 presidential election. Legal experts said it is plausible that an appeals court would agree to stay Trump’s sentence until after the appeal is adjudicated.

How does this verdict impact his candidacy?

Polls before the guilty verdict Thursday had shown an often small but potentially decisive drop in Trump’s support if he were to be convicted of a crime. As of late 2023, polls showed that a conviction would shift the margins by between five and 14 points in President Biden’s favor. A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll last month showed just a two-point shift toward Biden if Trump is convicted, with a larger six-point shift if Trump is incarcerated as a result.


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