+ Inflation
= Stagflation
There's a strong probability we're already in the kind of recession that played hell with an awful lot of Americans in the 70s.
It was a time of transition. We were trying to go from the glory days of post-WW2 expansion of the empire to actual globalization. It was also when we really began to find out that we had taught the world how to beat us at our own game, but we got all pissed off when they started to show they could do it.
Japan and Germany were building better cars and electronics, and making better and cheaper steel. France and Spain were turning out American-branded TVs and home appliances that were as good as any built here, and selling at a lower price.
Throw in a couple of nasty oil shocks, and we ended the decade in double-digit inflation, which gave the money-grubbers all the incentive, opportunity, and justification they needed to buy more congress critters and begin dismantling the middle class.
History doesn't repeat - but it sure as fuck rhymes. So here we go again.
Long-term unemployment at post-pandemic high, straining workers and economy
More Americans are experiencing joblessness for six months or more, a sign of labor market’s weakness ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated meeting this week.
More Americans are facing stretches of unemployment of six months or more, a worrisome sign for the U.S. economy.
More than 1 in 4 workers without jobs have been unemployed for at least half a year, new data shows. That number is a post-pandemic high and a level typically only seen during periods of economic turmoil.
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In all, more than 1.9 million Americans had been unemployed “long term” in August, meaning they have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, a critical cliff when it comes to finding a job. That’s nearly double the 1 million people who were in a similar position in early 2023.
“We have a low-hire, low-fire environment — and that stagnancy means there aren’t a lot of new positions for people to move into,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at the jobs site Indeed. “The probability of becoming unemployed has not gone up that much, but if you become unemployed, it’s much harder to find a job.”
Six months of unemployment often signals a turning point in a person’s job search, according to economists. They’ve likely run out of unemployment insurance benefits and severance payments by then, leaving them on shakier financial ground. People who have been unemployed for more than six months are also more likely to become discouraged and stop looking for work altogether.
The data shows how broadly the job market has cooled ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly-anticipated meeting this week, when policymakers are expected to lower interest rates for the first time this year. Two months of weaker-than-expected jobs numbers, including widespread revisions, have led policymakers to voice concerns that the labor market could continue deteriorating.
Since 1950, the long-term unemployment rate has exceeded 25 percent in only a few other instances and always after a recession: for one month, June 1983, after an inflation-fueled recession; for an eight-year stretch following the Great Recession in 2009; and for about a year and half during the coronavirus pandemic.
The pickup in months-long unemployment coincides with broader cooling in the labor market. Although the overall unemployment rate, 4.3 percent, is near longtime lows, many employers have frozen hiring as they wait to see how new tariffs and other economic policies will affect business. Layoffs are rising, too, with weekly claims for unemployment insurance reaching the highest level since October 2021.
For the unemployed, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find new work — now an average six months, a month longer than before the pandemic, according to Labor Department data. And for the first time in four years, there are more unemployed people in the United States than there are job openings.
“I have 15-plus years in IT, I thought I should be able to step into any job,” said Steve Beal, 47, who has been unemployed since March 2024, when he was laid off from a six-figure job at Best Buy’s corporate office in Minnesota. “But so far I’ve applied to at least 300 jobs and it’s all rejections. Even with referrals, networking, résumé services, I haven’t gotten anywhere.”
Separate data this week showed that Americans’ confidence in their ability to find a new job is at a record low. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that people say there’s less than a 45 percent chance they could find a job in the next three months if they were to suddenly become unemployed, which is the lowest reading since the survey began in 2013.
Felicia Enriquez, a paralegal in Los Angeles, lost her job in July 2024. In the 14 months since, she’s applied to hundreds of openings without success. Local government jobs have dried up, and even temp agencies are coming up empty, she said.
Her unemployment benefits — $400 a week — ran out in February, and she’s six months behind on rent. So far Enriquez’s landlord has been understanding, but she said she worries about what will happen to her and her 16-year-old daughter when that good will runs out. Already, she’s relying on food stamps to buy groceries.
“It gets harder the longer it gets. That’s the vicious part,” the 47-year-old said. “At the beginning, when you lose your job you have money saved up, you get unemployment, things are okay. But when that runs out, then you really have to worry.”
Studies have found that workers who are unemployed long-term are less likely to find jobs than others. They’re also more likely to drop out of the workforce entirely. A 2014 study by economists at Princeton University found that nearly half of those unemployed for seven months or longer, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, ended up leaving the labor force.
“The longer people linger in unemployment, the more likely they are to lose their contacts and connections, and after an extended period of time, their skills can depreciate,” said Francine Blau, a labor economist and professor emeritus at Cornell University. “And there is the possibility that employers see [long-term unemployment] as a sign of a less desirable worker.”
Finding work has been especially tough for younger workers and recent college graduates, who are entering a job market with few entry-level openings. The share of unemployed workers who are new to the labor force remains elevated after hitting a 37-year high earlier this summer.
Nelson E. Caballero graduated in December with a degree in communications from Marymount University in Arlington, Virginia. He said he’s emailed his résumé and cover letter to every public relations firm in the Washington, D.C., area with entry-level openings but has gotten just three responses in nine months: All telling him they’re not hiring at the moment.
The 27-year-old is living with his parents and fretting about what comes next.
“I feel stuck,” Caballero said. “Moving out, buying a car, getting married — it all feels like a pipe dream right now. I don’t mind living with mom and dad, but they can’t keep supporting me forever.”
In Grantsville, Utah, Jessica Howard lost her job seven months ago at a health care technology company, after 17 years there. Since then, she’s spruced up her résumé several times and applied to nearly 400 jobs. But finding a new position feels impossible, she said, especially since she’s competing with many others laid off this year.
For now, Howard has temporarily put her mortgage on hold and is using savings to pay for food, gas and other necessities. But it’s been tough to keep sending out applications and preparing for interviews After months of trying.
“They say not to take it personally, but after a while the rejections really get to you,” she said. “It kills your confidence and you start to wonder: Do I really have these skills? Have I ever had these skills? It starts to break you down emotionally.”
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