A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) out on Tuesday found that Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is currently leading his two potential GOP general election opponents for U.S. Senate in Texas.
Talarico holds a 44% to 41% lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and a 46% to 41% lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton – who is locked with Cornyn in a bruising primary run-off.
The poll was conducted among 1,018 likely general election voters and carries a margin of error of 3.3% – which is greater than Talarico’s lead over Cornyn, but not Paxton.
TPOR is a non-partisan public opinion research group and conducted the survey from April 17 to the 20th.
Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, despite several cycles where big-name candidates, like Beto O’Rourke, were touted as potential winners only to fall short on Election Day.
Cornyn and Paxton’s ongoing primary battle likely contributed to the low numbers for both candidates in the poll. The two have traded sharp jabs during the campaign, with Cornyn slamming Paxton over his past corruption scandals and alleged marital infidelity, while Paxton has accused Cornyn of being out of step with the MAGA base.
Cornyn and Paxton have long jabbed each other online and clearly have no love lost between them. In February 2024, as Cornyn was eyeing a run to lead the Republican caucus in the Senate, Paxton tweeted, “It will be difficult for @JohnCornyn to be an effective leader since he is anti-Trump, anti-gun, and will be focused on his highly competitive primary campaign in 2026. Republicans deserve better in their next leader and Texans deserve another conservative Senator.”
Cornyn shot back, writing, “Hard to run from prison, Ken.”
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