Friday, November 6, 2015

The Elders Will Decide

There are plenty of reasons to be cautious of national polls that show Trump and Carson leading. They may fail to screen out casual voters, for instance, and leaders at this point in past years have eventually tanked. But perhaps the biggest reason to ditch stock in these polls is that they’re simulating a national vote that will never take place.
In reality, the GOP nominating contest will be decided by an intricate, state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates at stake between February and June. And thanks to the Republican National Committee’s allocation rules, the votes of “Blue Zone” Republicans — the more moderate GOP primary voters who live in Democratic-leaning states and congressional districts — could weigh more than those of more conservative voters who live in deeply red zones. Put another way: The Republican voters who will have little to no sway in the general election could have some of the most sway in the primary.
As The New York Times’ Nate Cohn astutely observed in January, Republicans in blue states hold surprising power in the GOP presidential primary process even though they are “all but extinct in Washington, since their candidates lose general elections to Democrats.” This explains why Republicans have selected relatively moderate presidential nominees while the party’s members in Congress have continued to veer right.
So, it sounds like: "Go ahead and have your little fling with Donald and Ben or whoever (it's not like we've been trying to discourage you from sowing a few wild oats), but in the end, Mommie and Daddy will call you in for supper and you'll sit politely at our table and you'll eat whatever the fuck we put in front of you."

So maybe, the reports of the GOP's demise may have been exaggerated(?) - I include myself in those doing that reporting btw.

But if that's how it plays out, how pissed are those rubes likely to be then?  Yikes.

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