Larry Sabato

Home town hero (as long as he agrees with me of course) Larry Sabato runs a little joint called The Center For Politics at UVa, and he's gotten pretty good at what he does.

Here's a little snapshot of where Professor Sabato thinks we stand right now:

What about the overall picture? As our regular readers know, we’ve been the Rock of Gibraltar when it comes to a Clinton victory. Our first electoral map, issued at the end of March, showed Clinton at 347 EVs to 191 EVs for Trump, and all subsequent maps have maintained those totals — until now. After looking carefully at Nebraska’s 2nd District — Nebraska being, along with Maine, a state that awards one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district — we’ve decided that NE-2 is leaning toward Clinton. It isn’t much of a lean, and it’s possible that if Trump can tighten up the contest, this one will wobble back to the Republicans. But for the moment, adding NE-2 to the Democrats makes Clinton’s total 348 EVs and Trump’s total 190 EVs. As you’ll recall, Obama carried this district in 2008 but lost it in 2012, so it’s on the margins — yet it also ranks 49th out of 435 congressional districts for percentage of non-Hispanic whites with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Moreover, not only is Clinton investing ad money in Omaha, which also bleeds into the western parts of swing state Iowa, she is also spending actual campaign time in the city, a sign that her campaign believes it can win this extra electoral vote. And did we mention Warren Buffett, a huge Hillary fan, dominates the economic landscape there?

But wait just a durn minute - Tim Kaine made visits to both Idaho and Wyoming, while Trump popped up in a coupla places in Virginia.

Kinda weird, but this is politics, man.  And this time around, it ain't nuthin' like nuthin' that's gone before - even more than usual.

And so, more than ever - don't get happy, Democrats - get busy.  

Some people believe hard that Trump is in the process of using his "campaign" to build a new media empire that he intends to aim at taking over for DumFux News - that's number one.  And number two is that there's not likely gonna be anything close to resembling any kind of movement on a Progressive Agenda unless lotsa Democrats go to DC along with Hillary Clinton.

Yeah yeah, I've said all that before. Tired of it?  Tough shit - I'll be saying it plenty more from here on in. Get used to it.

And this too: