COVID-19 Update

1st, John Oliver

And then, Adam Wren at Medium (kinda long):

Read through the bits about what to do to avoid exposure etc, and then -

The worrying parts:

The virus is highly infectious, potentially nearly twice as infectious as the flu. It might be far higher, there isn’t anywhere near enough data yet.

The "R0" (the number of people who're likely to be infected by any given infected person) is thought to be between R1.4 and R3.8

Infected people could spread the disease for up to two weeks before showing symptoms.

Some people don’t show any symptoms at all and could infect an enormous number of people.In The Atlantic, Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist at Harvard reported that “that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19”. This was last week and while ridiculed at the time, his assumptions are now the generally accepted position among epidemiologists.

And try not to obsess on this kinda shit. Understand the scope of the ramifications, just don't get too hung up on the Hair-On-Fire triggers.

Assuming pretty much all of "best case scenario" data so far, here in USAmerica, Inc, it could look like this:

If 40% of the population contracts the disease = 132,000,000 people

If 20% of those require hospitalization = 26,400,000 patients (in about 800,000 available beds)

If 25% of those require ICU admission = 6,600,000 (in about 95,000 available beds)

If 2% of those with severe illness die = 132,000 dead Americans (which could be a lot closer to half a million or more)

Just the troubles we could have getting people into a bed to care for them can make the thing worse, so we have to remember that one of the big problems that can grow out of a big health problem is that the problem can often make itself worse.

So in addition to difficulties getting a handle on a problem where everybody kinda follows the rules and there's a strong organization with solid leadership: 

• We have a fair-sized demographic that won't seek treatment - because they can't afford it, or they don't have access to facilities, or because of personal denial - and that will mean a wider-spread contagion
• Some of the healthcare workers will succumb to the disease, and that number will be increased if (when) the system becomes overwhelmed
• Consumable Resources (masks, oxygen, syringes, etc) will run short because the disease will remove some of the people from the supply train

And as always, look sharp, feel sharp, be sharp