A Break Down

... on the possible demise of Putin's imperial ambitions.

(paraphrasing) The west gets so hung up on not underestimating Russia, we fall into the mental trap of ascribing way more power and agency to them than they deserve - which leads to our making a whole different set of mistakes, which basically work out about the same, and here we are:

meet the new clusterfuck

same as the old clusterfuck

From Good Times Bad Times:

I have to be doubtful that the Russian Federation itself will break up. It think there must be a strong enough memory of national unity - a national identity - that will hold "the old Russia" together.

Remember though - I've been wrong before. Real wrong.