He knows that even a total dictator can't hang on without some support from the citizenry - a Caesar has basically three ways to stay in power.
- He can manipulate media so as to brainwash and gaslight
- He can buy off the masses with bread and circuses
- He can claim a military victory and throw himself a nice parade in Red Square
Putin is losing the propaganda war because he can't shut down the whole internet - that would look like he's losing the propaganda war. 馃お
The money he needs to buy off the people has been reduced by at least half because of the sanctions - which get wider and deeper and more stringent practically every day.
And he's got nothing but dead soldiers and scrap metal scattered all over Ukraine.
So what's he up to?
As always, I'm trying to stay out the Predictions Business.
But (you know the word "but" after that opening declaration means "here's a coupla predictions I just said I wasn't gonna to make") two real possibilities pop into my mind.
- Putin intends to follow his own precedent and settle in for a long siege - remember, he blasted Chechnya for 10 years. This could also be what MOD tells him will be necessary to hold the Donbas.
- He's drafting 135,000 guys to ensure "law-n-order" because of something he fears could easily be a Russian Spring kinda thing - the guys he's drafting into service under the guise of supporting the Special Military Operation could be deployed to Russian cities to fuck up protesters.
There are dozens of alternatives, combinations and permutations of what Putin is thinking. We can only hope NATO and Biden's Tiger Team are on their game, and not just ready to react, but planning a few preemptive surprises too.
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