Ukraine

Putin's propaganda machine has to be working overtime trying to make sure the Russian citizenry is complacent and quiet.

And while it's holding for now, there are signs that things are not exactly peachy.

As sanctions and conscription become more of a drag on lifestyle, we should see a continued shift in public sentiment.

But even though a dictatorship still has to have support from the mob, this is Putin's Russia, where the combination of gaslighting and the threat of violent retribution are likely to keep people in line at least for a while.

It's still not going to end well for Putin, and while that end could come startlingly soon, it's more likely that it'll play out for quite a while yet.

Carnegie Endowment - Andrei Kolesnikov and Denis Volkov