Ukraine

Putin put out the kind of standard order that dumbass REMFs who fancy themselves as brilliant and inspirational field commanders always put out, which is that he won't allow retreat, so there's a fair probability that he's going to lose an entire division (about 15,000 guys) in the Kherson area west of the Dnipro.

And I've been wondering why the Russians were probing the Ukrainian line in certain areas - from just south of Bahmut down to Tokmak. And it's occurred to me, that's the area where mostly mercenaries are deployed, and they get paid according to the real estate they've captured, so they're pushing at points of the front where there's not much of anything except dirt to conquer, and where the going should be a little easier. But the Ukrainians have pretty well shut that down too.

Something that's not getting much media attention is the 5th column/underground-type resistance going on in lots of urban centers - Mariupol, Berdiansk, Tokmak, Melitopol, Nova Kakhovka, and Kherson - plus various places scattered all over the joint.

Winter is coming, and the Russians are not prepared for it.