Ain't it funny how we never see the headline, "GOP In Disarray!"
The Senate stays Majority Democrat, and while the House is likely to go Republican, that's not a sure thing.
Now then - here's a money quote from WaPo's The Early, this morning:
Sen Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee this cycle, said on Fox on Sunday that “there’s no plan” and leaders want to “rush through an election because they don’t want to do any assessment of what we’ve done wrong.”
But Scott was charged with retaking the majority as NRSC chair — so it’s unclear who he wants answers from. It’s a bit like the chef asking who cooked such a terrible meal.
(pay wall)
The House and the Senate are back in Washington for the first time in six weeks, with the Republican Party in tumult and Democrats in ecstasy over the results of the midterm elections.
Republicans in both chambers are scheduled to elect their leaders for the next Congress this week (the House on Tuesday, the Senate on Wednesday) in what promises to be a tense few days as rank-and-file members ask what went wrong, who’s to blame and what’s going to be done about it.
The midterm elections didn’t go how most expected. Democrats maintained control of the Senate, and control of the House is still unknown, which means what will happen during the lame-duck session is TBD — and the agenda for the next Congress is completely up in the air.
The House could have the slimmest majority since the 72nd Congress in 1931, when 218 Republicans, 216 Democrats and one Farmer-Labor Party representative made up the chamber.
Let’s break it down
Every competitive House Republican leadership race has been thrown for a loop.
The conference will gather today to hear from the candidates in what is expected to be a lively and interesting closed-door conversation.
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is desperate to be speaker, is feeling the most heat.
If Republicans do take the House, it will be by the narrowest of margins, empowering members of both the far-right and moderate wings to seek concessions from leaders.
To secure support for his potential speakership, McCarthy is talking to many members, including the chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), according to two Republican aides who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. Perry and members of the Freedom Caucus want more representation on committees and changes to the rules that empower rank-and-file members. McCarthy needs their votes.
The race to be Republican whip has also been thrown for a loop. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who ran the House Republicans’ campaign arm, is struggling to maintain his support after the midterms, especially since he told The Early on Friday that Republicans “should be extremely happy” that they won the House majority (which, let us repeat, hasn’t been called yet).
Meanwhile, critics are highlighting that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) failed to endorse former president Donald Trump’s still-unannounced 2024 presidential run when Banks appeared on Fox News on Sunday. But Banks is planning to endorse Trump after his expected announcement Tuesday night, a person familiar with Banks’s intentions said.
Trump has become a litmus test (again), but in perhaps a different way than before. He is weakened after many blame him for the GOP’s bad midterms outcome, but he also remains the de facto leader of the party — for now. Whether to pledge allegiance to him has become more complicated for ambitious Republicans.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) — who is running for reelection as conference chair, which would make her the No. 4 Republican in the House if the GOP is in the majority — last week endorsed Trump for president, but some members are frustrated she did so before he announced and while the fallout from the midterms remains murky.
Senate Republicans
Several GOP senators are calling for a postponement of GOP leadership elections. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee this cycle, said on Fox on Sunday that “there’s no plan” and leaders want to “rush through an election because they don’t want to do any assessment of what we’ve done wrong.”
But Scott was charged with retaking the majority as NRSC chair — so it’s unclear who he wants answers from. It’s a bit like the chef asking who cooked such a terrible meal.
Several senators who have backed postponing leadership elections, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), have long had grudges with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and have sidled up to Trump and the Trump wing of the party. But Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a sort of weather vane for which way the political winds are blowing and a loyalist to the former president, called for a delay as well Sunday night.
Senate leadership aides said there is no intention to postpone the election and that no one has stepped up to challenge McConnell, but when Senators meet on Tuesday at their weekly lunch, they, too, are expected to have a tense discussion.
Even if he is elected leader again, McConnell will face questions about how much influence he’ll have. Trump attacks him regularly, many candidates trashed him on the trail and some of his old allies have retired. He may get the title, but what he can do with it remains an open question.
House Democrats
House Democrats are in limbo, waiting to see if they defy the odds and maintain control of the House. There will be no movement on leadership elections before the majority is called.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was expected to step down after this term, declined to say Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” whether she’s going to leave leadership.
“My decision will then be rooted in what — the wishes of my family and the wishes of my caucus,” she said. Pelosi said she would announce her decision ahead of the House Democrats’ leadership elections on Nov. 30.
Senate Democrats
It’s possible that every Democratic senator up for reelection will return to Washington next year — depending on whether Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.) prevails in a runoff election next month — and the conference is thrilled with the election results. The Senate Democratic caucus is the most drama-free group on the Hill right now.
Democratic senators will meet Tuesday for their regular lunch, which is likely to be a celebration, and they’ll start to plot out their lame-duck priorities through the end of the year.
They won’t hold their leadership elections until December. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to be unopposed.
Today's Wonderment:
What happens if/when a few members (MTG, Scott Perry, Josh Hawley, et al) are indicted for their roles in Jan6?
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