Slouching Towards Oblivion

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Ukraine


I'm going on some very loose numbers because it's all so fucking big now, nobody really knows what the numbers actually are, but it seems we're getting a lot of bang for our buck sending aid to Ukraine.

Looking at it from the Geopolitics standpoint, it's an excellent investment.

We should keep in mind that geopolitics is a global poker game where everybody's cheating, everybody knows everybody's cheating, and nobody's playing with their own money. Seeing everything through that filter tends to give us the kind of skewed perspective that's led us to make some unbelievably stoopid decisions.

So far, I think what we're doing in Ukraine is beyond the simple calculus of "what's in it for me", and goes to a place where we're actually thinking in broader terms, and considering a lot more than just waiting for it to play out and then making a deal with the conqueror.

We still have to look at the "business" aspects, though.

We've spent about $50B, which is about 5% of the total US defense budget. And that's a shitload of money that I'd rather spend on practically anything other than war, but this is what we've got so this is what we have to deal with.

The good news is that we get to draw down some excess stocks of equipment, weapons and ammo. Most of that stock is nearing its expiration date, and will be replaced with newer and better stuff. Plus, we get to train the Ukrainians in NATO tactics and test the whole shebang to see if it works the way we've been thinking it'd work. (so far so good)

"The Bottom Line" = each American family is spending about one dollar a day on Ukraine out of a total of 20 dollars we all spend every day on things that blow shit up.

That ain't cheap, but considering the total aid package is less than 0.25% of US GDP, we're getting a pretty good deal.

Of course, let's always be mindful, and never get too casual in our use of words like "good" when we're talking about the bloody truth of war.

"Pile the bodies high at Austerlitz and Waterloo.
Shovel them under and let me work—
I am the grass; I cover all."

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