Climate

The risk of damage from hurricane winds will shift in coming decades.

See the impact by Zip code.

1 in 3 Americans may face risk by mid-century as winds are projected to reach further inland, northward

Hurricane winds fueled by climate change will reach further inland and put tens of millions more Americans’ lives and homes at risk in the next three decades, according to a detailed new analysis released Monday.

The data from the nonprofit First Street Foundation comes as hundreds of people remain displaced across southwest Florida, five months after Hurricane Ian barreled across the state and killed nearly 150 people.

A Washington Post analysis of the group’s data found that nearly 30 million Americans in about 235 counties across 18 states in the contiguous United States, from Texas to New England, will face new threats from hurricane-force winds. A third of Americans could experience damaging gales by 2053, in places as far inland as Tennessee and Arkansas.

People continue to move to possibly problematic areas. The Post analysis found people have been moving to counties categorized as high risk for hurricane-force winds at six times the rate of other counties.

In some places where people are flocking, few residents have lived through storms that produce destructive winds, said Kerry Emanuel, an MIT climate scientist and longtime hurricane researcher whose data helped inform the First Street analysis. “Even if the risks are well known, it doesn’t mean, unfortunately, that we are going to be well prepared,” Emanuel said.

The threat also appears to disproportionately affect communities of color. In 2023, more than 40 percent of the country’s Black population lives in zones deemed at risk for hurricane wind damage. In 30 years, that vulnerability could put about 55 percent of the Black population at risk. The exposure for Asian and White populations will increase from a quarter to a third, and 41 percent of the Hispanic population will be at risk in 30 years, compared with 32 percent now.

The analysis by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group that has done similar studies on the mounting risks of floods, wildfires and extreme heat, allows homeowners and public officials to search the wind-related risks for specific properties.

The projections take into account more than 50,000 possible hurricane tracks, based both on historical data and what scientists know about changes in ocean temperatures, sea-level rise and other environmental factors. To estimate specific structures’ future risks, the analysis factors in the direction and strength of winds, the design and positioning of buildings and possible obstacles, such as trees or mangroves.

Significant winds are likely to push far inland
Most Americans likely think of hurricane-force winds as largely limited to the nation’s coastlines. While it’s true that a storm’s most fierce winds typically dissipate soon after landfall, some storms of the past have carried damaging gusts well inland.

That could become more widespread in the future.

Even if inland areas experience lower wind speeds than coastal regions, the analysis found that parts of states such as Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee could see a significant increase in gust speeds relative to levels common now. Those living there are less likely to be prepared for escalating winds, which could lead to more damage.

More powerful storms are on the way

Research shows that of the storms that have formed in the North Atlantic, the proportion of major hurricanes — Category 3, 4 or 5 — has increased substantially since the 1980s. Back then, such hurricanes accounted for about 10 percent of storms. These days, the figure is closer to 40 percent.

“The physics just allow for the formation of more intense storms,” said Matthew Eby, First Street’s founder and chief executive. “There’s a big jump in who might be facing the most extreme end of the spectrum.”

In a warmer atmosphere, the air can hold more water vapor, fueling torrential rains that often accompany powerful storms. Warmer water temperatures also provide hurricanes more energy, raising the potential for more crushing winds and pounding waves as storms move onshore.

In coming decades, more fierce hurricanes will likely bring stronger winds to more places — along with more substantial rain and flooding. According to the First Street analysis, there are about 3.5 million properties within the contiguous United States with any chance of experiencing Category 5 hurricane winds. In 30 years, that number will increase to more than 5.6 million.

For now, there are about 10.3 million properties facing any chance of experiencing Category 4 hurricane winds this year. By 2053, that figure will rise to nearly 15 million.

Hurricanes are tracking farther northward

More hurricanes are likely to track northward over coming years, due to a range of factors, including moisture levels in the atmosphere and changing large-scale wind patterns. As the tropical regions that help to fuel hurricanes expand toward the poles in a warming planet, so do the range of the storms themselves.

“The storms are just living in their world, and their world is growing,” said James Kossin, a retired National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration atmospheric scientist, who has studied hurricanes but did not work on Monday’s analysis.

That doesn’t mean that the biggest historical bull’s eye, Florida, will see fewer overall impacts by mid-century. But researchers do expect some areas, such as Miami-Dade County, to face slightly lower future wind risk, while spots such as Brevard County, near Orlando, will probably see higher average annual losses.

In the Northeast there is a concentration of properties that will “be newly exposed” to such dangers by then, and haven’t been built to withstand the winds they might face.

“Places that are not well adapted to it are going to face particular difficulty,” Kossin said.

Which places are most vulnerable

Florida is and will remain the U.S. state most exposed to hurricane risk, accounting for about $7 out of every $10 in damage, now and in the future, according to First Street. The top 20 cities in danger of encountering a major hurricane in the next decades are all in Florida.

The Gulf Coast will continue to experience the strongest winds, with maximum gusts of about 248 miles per hour. South Carolina is expected to see the largest increase in maximum wind speeds over the next 30 years, with top winds 37 mph higher than now.

New York tops the lists of cities that could see the most significant leap in average annual losses, followed by Newport News and several other cities in coastal Virginia, as well as locations such as Bluffton, S.C., and Savannah, Ga.

Ed Kearns, chief data officer for First Street, said a key part of preparing for these changes is arming people with information about what is coming.

“The risk is shifting. That’s what we are trying to impart,” he said. “Risk is most dangerous when you don’t know you have it.”