We're Blowin' it

Droughts will get worse, and there's a good probability we'll see a double/triple/fourple whammy of drought-then-flood-then-drought cycling in fairly quick succession.

We've fouled the nest, we may not be able to stop the worst of the consequences for having fouled the nest, which means that taking it all together, we're on track for the human species to go extinct sooner than we'd hoped.

Global soil moisture in ‘permanent’ decline due to climate change

A new study warns that global declines in soil moisture in the 21st century could mark a “permanent” shift in the world’s water cycle.

Combining data from satellites, sea level measurements and observations of “polar motion”, the research shows how soil moisture levels have decreased since the year 2000.

The findings, published in Science, suggest the decline is primarily driven by an increasingly thirsty atmosphere as global temperatures rise, as well as shifts in rainfall patterns.

Consequently, the researchers warn the observed changes are likely to be “permanent” if current warming trends continue.

An accompanying perspective article says the study provides “robust evidence” of an “irreversible shift” in terrestrial water sources under climate change.

The drying out of soil “increases the severity and frequency” of major droughts, with consequences for humans, ecosystems and agriculture, explains Dr Benjamin Cook, an interdisciplinary Earth system scientist working at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, who was not involved in the research.

He tells Carbon Brief:

“Droughts are one of the most impactful, expensive natural hazards out there, because they are typically persistent and long lasting. Everything needs water – ecosystems need water, agriculture needs water. People need water. If you don’t have enough water – you’re in trouble.”

Drying soil

Every year, around 6tn tonnes of water cycles through Earth’s land surface. When rain falls on land it gets held up in soil, wetlands, groundwater, lakes and reservoirs on its journey back to the oceans.

Soil moisture forms a critical part of the Earth’s system, helping to irrigate soil, cycle nutrients and regulate the climate.

The amount of water contained in the soil is sensitive to a range of factors, including changes in rainfall, evaporation, vegetation and climate – as well as human activity, such as intensive agriculture.

The research points to a “gradual decline” in soil moisture levels in the 21st century, kickstarted by a period of “sharp depletion” in the three years over 2000-02.

Specifically, the researchers find the depletion of soil moisture resulted in a total loss of 1,614bn tonnes (gigatonnes, or Gt) of water over 2000-02 and then 1,009Gt between 2002 and 2016.

(For context, ice loss in Greenland resulted in 900Gt of water loss over 2002-06.)

Soil moisture has not recovered as of 2021, according to the research, and is unlikely to pick up under present climate conditions.

Joint-lead author Prof Dongryeol Ryu, professor of hydrology and remote sensing at the University of Melbourne, explains to Carbon Brief:

“We observed a stepwise decline [in soil moisture] twice in the past two decades, interspersed within a continuously declining trend in soil moisture. We haven’t seen this trend earlier, so that is why this is very concerning.”

Ryu explains the decision to analyse changes to soil moisture on a global scale meant the researchers could confirm trends difficult to see in smaller geographic datasets:

“The unique thing we found through analysing these larger-scale measures is that – even if we have seen widely fluctuating ups and downs in precipitation and increasing temperature – the total water contained in the soil, as soil moisture and groundwater, has been declining gradually from around the beginning of this century.“

The maps below illustrate soil moisture changes in 2003-07 and 2008-12 against a 1995-99 baseline, as estimated by the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. The areas marked on the map in brown saw a drop in soil moisture and the areas marked in blue an increase in soil moisture.

The top map shows soil moisture depletion across large regions in eastern and central Asia, central Africa and North and South America over 2003-07. The lower map shows that “replenishment” in the years that followed occurred in relatively small parts of South America, India, Australia and North America.

Climate change

Ryu says the researchers “suspect that increasing temperature played an important role” in the decline in terrestrial water storage and soil moisture in the 21st century.

The study points to two factors driving gradual depletion of soil moisture over the last quarter century: fluctuations to rainfall patterns and increasing “evaporative demand”.

Evaporative demand refers to the atmosphere’s “thirst” for water, or how much moisture it can take from the land, vegetation and surface water.

Studies have highlighted how global evaporative demand has been increasing over the last two decades globally, impacting water availability, hurting crops and causing drought.

The new study notes that “increasing evaporative demand driven by a warming climate” suggests a “more consistent and widespread trend toward drying as temperatures rise”.

Ryu says the “very unusual” drop in water moisture observed over 2000-02 could be attributed to low levels of rainfall globally, which coincided with the “period when evaporative demand started increasing”.

Another – less pronounced – period of rapid soil moisture decline seen over 2015-16 can be attributed to droughts triggered by the 2014-16 El Niño event, Ryu notes.

Ryu says the study findings indicate that soil moisture can no longer bounce back from a dry year, as it has in the past:

“It used to be that when precipitation goes up again, we recover water in the soil. But because of this increasing evaporative demand, once we have strong El Niño years – which lead to much less rainfall for a year or two – it seems that we are not recovering the water fully because of increasing evaporative demand. Because of that – even if we have a wet year following dry years – the water in the soil doesn’t seem to recover.”

Cross-validation

Measuring changes in global soil moisture has historically presented a challenge to scientists, given the lack of comprehensive and direct observations of water in soil.

The researchers attempt to reduce this uncertainty by corroborating the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with three geophysical measurement datasets.

ERA5’s land surface modelling system uses meteorological and other input data to estimate water within the upper few metres of the soil.

These figures were compared with data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission – a joint satellite mission between NASA and the German Aerospace Center.

Running since 2002, the GRACE mission tracks changes to the Earth’s gravity by collecting data on groundwater depletion, ice sheet loss and sea level rise. These observations have revealed a persistent loss of water from land to the ocean.

The scientists also cross-reference the ERA5 reanalysis data with a century-old dataset that measures fluctuations in the rotation of the Earth as the distribution of mass on the planet changes.

(The redistribution of ice and water, such as melting ice sheets and depleting groundwater, causes the planet to wobble as it spins and its axis to shift slightly. This is known as “polar motion”.)

The third set of measurements the scientists use is global mean sea level height, which is collected by satellites.

To extract soil moisture changes from this set of data, the researchers subtracted other components of sea level rise from the overall total – including Greenland ice melt, Antarctica ice melt, the impact of increasing sea surface temperature (which expands water volume) and the contribution of groundwater.

This process of elimination left researchers with an estimate of the contribution of soil moisture to global sea level rise.

The study notes that both the sea surface height and polar motion observations “support the conclusion that the abrupt change in soil moisture is genuine”.

Ryu says using global average sea level rise and “Earth wobble” to track water redistribution on land is the “main innovation” applied in the paper.

He adds the value of “reverse engineering” the ERA5 dataset is to understand how to enhance land surface modelling in the future:

“By explaining all the contributing factors to this measurement, you can understand the process. And if you understand the process, you can actually predict what’s going to happen in the future if any of these factors change in a certain manner.”

NASA’s Dr Cook says the “corroborating evidence” supplied by the paper offers a “really strong case that there has been a large-scale decline in soil moisture in recent decades”.

However, he says the relatively short reference period of the study means that identifying the cause of the decline is less clear cut:

“Whether [the decline] is permanent or not is much more uncertain…On these timescales, internal natural variability can be really, really strong. Attributing this decline to something specific – either climate change or internal variability – is much much more difficult.”

Sea level rise

A notable finding in the study’s sea level rise analysis is that terrestrial water storage may have been the dominant driver of sea level rise in the early 21st century.

Specifically, the paper notes that the decline in terrestrial water storage over 2000-02 – when soil moisture plummeted – led to global average sea level rise of almost 2mm annually.

The researchers note this rate of sea level rise is “unprecedented” and “significantly higher” than the rate of sea level rise attributed to Greenland ice mass loss, which they note is approximately 0.8mm a year.

Prof Reed Maxwell, a professor at the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University, who was also not involved in the study, says the researchers’ efforts to compare soil moisture with other global water stores was “novel” and “opens the door to future study of a more holistic global water balance”.

‘Creeping disaster’

The paper notes that land surface and hydrological models require “substantial improvement” to accurately simulate changes in soil moisture in changing climate.

Current models do not factor the impacts of agricultural intensification, nor the ongoing “greening” of semi-arid regions – both of which “may contribute” to a further decline in soil moisture, it states.

Writing in a perspectives article published in Science, Prof Luis Samaniego from the department of computational hydrosystems at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research says that it is “essential” that next-generation models incorporate human-caused influences such as farming, large dams and irrigation systems.

The study posits that the “innovative methods” for estimating changes in global soil moisture presented in the study provide opportunities to “improve the present state of modelling at global and continental scales”.

More broadly, advances in scientific understanding of changes to soil moisture can help improve the world’s preparedness for drought.

Drought is often described as a “creeping disaster” – because by the time it is identified, it is usually already well under way,

Paper author Ryu explains:

“Unlike a flood and heatwaves, drought comes very very slowly – and has prolonged and delayed consequences. We better be prepared earlier than later, because once drought comes you can expect a long period of consequences.”

Dr Shou Wang, associate professor at the Hydroclimate Extremes Lab and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, who was not involved in the study, says the research findings are “crucial” for advancing understanding of the “potential drivers and dynamics” of “unprecedented hydrological extremes in a warming climate”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“This is breakthrough work that uncovers the drivers of hydrological regime changes, which are leading to unprecedented hydrological extremes such as compound and consecutive drought-flood events.”

Today's Belle

Trump got a billion dollars - or is in the process of getting a billion dollars - from the Dirty Fuels Cartel, and he's doing everything necessary to turn the US into New Russia.

Sea Level

Sea level rise is accelerating.

In the last 30 years, we've seen sea levels rise about 4 inches.

In the next 30 years, it's likely to go up another 12 inches.

A Little Science

Hurricanes are fueled by warm water. Warmer ocean water means more powerful storms, that don't dissipate as much or as quickly once they make landfall, plus they move slower, plus they can pick up even more water from a warmer atmosphere - so they dump more rain, and wash your ass away.

Hey, MAGA - stop voting for people who're purposefully ignoring the main cause of the storms that are getting you killed, and then cutting off the aid you need to recover.

Here We Go Again

Hey, MAGA - instead of swallowing a buncha stupid bullshit about "bad gubmint stealin' muh money to pay for illegal immigrants" (or whatever fucked up lies you're buying into today), maybe you could try looking to the coin-operated politicians you've been voting for.

a) They don't give a fuck about you, and...

b) They're the ones stealing from you in order to keep you ignorant, poor, and feeling grateful they don't fuck you over even more than they already have by lying to you about Climate Change

What's happening now is exactly what the science guys have been telling us would happen, you stupid fucking rubes.

And now, here comes another'n.

And I've already seen at least one fantasy tweet about how something must be up with that whole "weather weapons" thing cuz no hurricane has ever just appeared outa nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico like that, and blah blah blah.

A hurricane-type storm forms in the Gulf about once every 16 years

Sweet screamin' Jesus - you have to try to get your heads out of your asses. Please.

Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 strength on approach to Florida

The storm is expected to produce a devasting surge along Florida’s west coast, which could include the Tampa Bay area. Some decrease in strength is forecast ahead of landfall.

Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.

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Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached extreme levels — its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.

The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The explosive development has occurred over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to human-caused climate change.

Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate.

Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm — despite some weakening — is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.

Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet — including in Tampa Bay.

Depending on Milton’s exact track, Tampa could find itself in the most dangerous part of the hurricane. The vulnerable coastal city could suffer billions of dollars in damage in a worst-case-scenario track, which is a possible outcome. Some neighborhoods would be entirely inundated and inaccessible. Ongoing evacuations are expected to be the most expansive in Florida since Hurricane Irma struck in 2017.

It’s important to note that subtle shifts of only 5 to 10 miles in track will have an enormous bearing on surge outcomes. While it’s impossible to outline exactly who will see the worst surge at this point, a devastating surge is virtually a certainty somewhere along Florida’s west coast.

A storm surge watch is in effect from the southern tip of the Everglades to the mouth of the Suwanee River in the Big Bend. That includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor — the latter a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in late September 2022.

In addition, Milton will bring destructive winds — perhaps gusting over 100 mph at the coastline — as well as flooding rains and the risk of a few tornadoes. Hurricane watches span the southern part of Florida’s Big Bend, ravaged by Helene less than two weeks ago, to just south of Marco Island.

Tropical alerts for Hurricane Milton.

Widespread power outages are probable in Florida’s interior and even as far away as the state’s east coast and could affect cities such as Orlando and Daytona Beach — in addition to Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota.

Late Monday morning, the storm was centered about 130 miles west-northwest of the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and 720 miles southwest of Tampa, headed to the east-southeast at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn to the northeast Tuesday.

On satellite, the storm also exhibited an ominous “enveloped eyewall lightning” signature. Hurricanes only produce lightning when they’re strengthening, usually quickly. The entire eyewall, or innermost ring of ferocious winds, has been sparking hundreds of lightning strikes — a portent of a top-tier storm. The Hurricane Hunters even encountered hail when entering the eyewall from the northwest.

Milton is expected to affect some of the same areas that experienced a destructive surge from Helene, representing a major setback for recovery efforts. Parts of Florida’s west coast already saw a 5- to 7-foot storm surge and are in the process of removing debris and sand left over from Helene.

What are the areas most threatened by this storm?

The Tampa Bay to Fort Myers corridor is at greatest risk from the storm. Milton will be arriving from the west, a highly unusual trajectory for hurricanes. Since 1850, there are no records of any Category 2 or greater hurricanes originating from the west and passing within 60 miles of Tampa. Milton’s trajectory will prime it to be a major surge producer.

Surge will be a hazard near and south of the center, but could be an issue along much of Florida’s west coast. Where the southern eyewall makes landfall, a surge of 8 to 12 feet is possible.

Within the eyewall, winds gusting over 100 mph at the coastline are possible. Within a county or two along the coast, gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely. Even far inland, places such as Lakeland and Orlando might see gusts of 75 mph — maybe more. That will result in widespread power outages. Based on current modeling, winds of 70 mph might reach all the way south to Lake Okeechobee.

Heavy rains are ongoing across South Florida now due to the moisture preceding Milton’s arrival. That moisture is pooling along a stalled front. Milton itself will bring a widespread 6 to 8 inches of rain, with localized 12-inch totals, across central and north central Florida. Some inland flooding is possible.

When and where will landfall probably occur?

When will conditions deteriorate and become dangerous?

The most likely landfall location is between New Port Richey, about 40 miles north of Tampa Bay, and North Port or Cape Coral, Fla., just to the north of Fort Myers, but shifts in the track are possible. It’s important to remember that hurricane impacts reach far beyond the center. The most dangerous conditions from wind and surge will be found near and just south of where the center crosses the coast.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday. Heavy rains will become more widespread, but the worst of the winds will probably hold off until Wednesday. Especially by midday Wednesday, an abrupt uptick in destructive winds is probable near where the storm comes ashore. The worst winds will come only two or three hours before Milton’s landfall and will arrive abruptly.

How large and intense will the storm be at landfall?

Milton is a small storm. Hurricane-force winds only reach outward some 30 miles from the center. Small, compact storms are more sensitive to fluctuations in strength, which is why Milton has been able to strengthen so fast.

The storm will be expanding as it interacts with nontropical weather systems and begins to feel the effects of the mid-latitude jet stream. Even though maximum winds will come down Tuesday night and Wednesday, the area affected by hurricane-force winds may triple. That will increase the area susceptible to downed trees, wires and power outages.

Uncertainty is unusually high with regard to Milton’s landfall strength. Even if the storm weakens to a Category 3, as predicted by the Hurricane Center, it will be coming down from a Category 5. And if weakening is more gradual than expected, a storm stronger than a Category 3 can’t be ruled out.

Dry air near the coast of Florida could also weaken the storm more than models suggest, but that is a low likelihood.

Could areas affected by Helene be hit again?

Computer models forecast Milton to generally to follow a course farther south than Helene, which should spare the Southern Appalachians from serious impacts. Little or no rain or wind from the storm should reach the western Carolinas.

However, Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Helene, including parts of the Big Bend and much of the west coast.

The potential storm surge generated by Milton in the Tampa Bay Area could be twice as large as Helene’s. However, this worst-case surge scenario could be avoided if the storm veers to the south or north.

If Milton makes landfall north of Tampa Bay, it could mean another blow for the Big Bend area while also producing some heavy rain and strong winds in southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, which were affected by Helene. However, Milton’s effects on Georgia will probably be less severe than Helene’s.

Today's Belle

The Biden plan for things like Rural Broadband, and Green Energy in 23 states is nearly as ambitious as FDR's REA back in the 30s.

So we've got it started, and it's a pretty good start, but it's just a start. Getting us fully transitioned away from dirty fuels, as soon as we can possibly do it, is the only thing that keeps us from the worst of the effects of Climate Change.

Based on the annual report from NOAA’s Global Monitoring Lab, global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 419.3 parts per million (“ppm” for short) in 2023, setting a new record high. The increase between 2022 and 2023 was 2.8 ppm—the 12th year in a row where the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by more than 2 ppm. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the modern carbon dioxide record began in 1958, the annual average carbon dioxide in 2023 was 421.08.

The Weather

Welcome to the coolest summer you will ever experience for the rest of your life.

U.S. faces prolonged, coast-to-coast heat wave. Here’s a forecast for 12 cities.

The heat will extend through the first week of August, with records possible in both the East and the West.

A new, long-lasting round of punishing heat is in the forecast for much of the Lower 48 states that will extend through the first week of August. Some of the highest temperatures are forecast in the central states, where a heat dome is expanding and intensifying.
More than 45 million people in parts of 18 states are under heat advisories Tuesday. An additional 16 million or so in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley are under an excessive-heat warning for even higher temperatures. In these areas, heat indexes — a measure of how hot it feels, factoring in humidity — are forecast to surpass 110 degrees through midweek.

By late in the workweek, parts of both the eastern and western United States could experience record-warm afternoon highs and overnight lows.

The National Weather Service forecasts at least moderate to major HeatRisk levels for most of the country over the next week. But patchy areas in two dozen states — mainly in the central and southeastern United States — could see the HeatRisk reach the top-tier “extreme” level.
“The multiday duration of this heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the general public,” the Weather Service warned. Only the high mountains and perhaps portions of the Upper Midwest will escape it.

Washington and Baltimore
After Tuesday, it’s day after day of temperatures deep into the 90s. By Thursday and Friday, the combination of heat and humidity make it feel like 105.
Tuesday — 89 high
Wednesday — 75 low / 96 high
Thursday — 77 low / 97 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — 90s for highs

Atlanta
“Hotlanta” will be feeling the part. A pop-up thunderstorm may offer brief relief amid days of mid-90s or higher. Heat indexes rise to around 105 at times.
Tuesday — 92 high
Wednesday — 73 low / 95 high
Thursday — 75 low / 96 high
Friday — 76 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low 90s for highs

Orlando
Orlando simmers through the week with temperatures several degrees above the norm. Heat indexes rise to near 105 as afternoon temperatures regularly reach the mid-90s.
Tuesday — 94 high
Wednesday — 77 low / 94 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 77 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs

Nashville — Heat advisory
Heat indexes are set to approach 110 on Tuesday and could be a bit higher after that. Any rainfall will be scant, with high pressure in control.
Tuesday — 97 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 97 high
Thursday — 79 low / 98 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs

Baton Rouge — Heat advisory
Factoring in humidity, it will feel as hot as 110-plus Tuesday throughout southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The following days should be similar.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 95 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 78 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs

Tulsa — Excessive-heat warning
Near the heart of the hottest air, highs in the 100s, along with high humidity, will make it feel as hot as 115 for multiple days. Little relief is anticipated at night.
Tuesday — 100 high
Wednesday — 82 low / 101 high
Thursday — 80 low / 103 high
Friday — 79 low / 101 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs

Dallas — Heat advisory
Underneath the heat dome, it’s hot and sunny for the near future throughout north Texas. This area is primed to pile up the 100-degree days ahead.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 79 low / 100 high
Thursday — 79 low / 101 high
Friday — 78 low / 102 high
Weekend — Low 100s for highs

Denver — Heat advisory
Hot and hazy conditions rule the week. Compared to cities farther east, overnight lows are relatively comfortable, but Denver has seen three days at or above 100 this year, with more possible.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 63 low / 96 high
Thursday — 61 low / 97 high
Friday — 65 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs

Salt Lake City
Wildfire smoke wafts overheard as high pressure builds through the week. Temperatures are forecast to run upward of 10 degrees above normal for several days.
Tuesday — 93 high
Wednesday — 65 low / 92 high
Thursday — 67 low / 97 high
Friday — 71 low / 99 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs

Phoenix
Monday made it 64 days in a row of 100 or higher in Phoenix. The city seems destined to challenge the record-long run of 76 days in 1993. A chance of late-day storms creeps in late in the week, but powerful high pressure anchored nearby keeps activity isolated.
Tuesday — 110 high
Wednesday — 90 low / 111 high
Thursday — 89 low / 108 high
Friday — 90 low / 111 high
Weekend — 110 to 115 for highs

Boise, Idaho — Excessive heat watch
The Snake River Plain is in for more scorching. Boise has already hit at least 100 on 16 days, which is the most on record to date. More 100s lie ahead.
Tuesday — 86 high
Wednesday — 62 low / 94 high
Thursday — 66 low / 101 high
Friday — 70 low / 106 high
Weekend — 100 to 105 for highs

Fresno
Another epicenter of persistent high heat this summer, the Central Valley of California is about to face its next round, with no real end in sight. This will help fuel fires burning in the region.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 67 low / 98 high
Thursday — 70 low / 102 high
Friday — 74 low / 99 high
Weekend — Around 105 for highs

Today's Quote

Assuming there's someone around to write that history...

Kurt Vonnegut, Jr

We'll go down in history

as the first society

that wouldn't save itself

because it wasn't

cost-effective.

Senator Podcast

Beryl leaves hot misery in its wake as the still-dangerous storm churns over the US interior

Power has started to come back for some of the millions of homes and businesses left in the dark when Hurricane Beryl slammed into the Houston area.

HOUSTON (AP) — Many of the millions left without power when Hurricane Beryl crashed into Texas, killing several people and unleashing flooding, now face days without air conditioning as dangerous heat threatens the region Tuesday.

A heat advisory was in effect through Wednesday in the Houston area and beyond, with temperatures expected to soar into the 90s (above 32.2 Celsius) and humidity that could make it feel as hot as 105 degrees (40.5 Celsius). The widespread loss of power, and therefore air conditioning, could make for dangerous conditions, the National Weather Service said.

More than 2.3 million homes and businesses around Houston lacked electricity Tuesday morning, down from a peak of over 2.7 million on Monday, according to PowerOutage.us.

“Houstonians need to know we’re working around the clock so you will be safe,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said Monday, urging residents to also know the dangers of high water, to stay hydrated and to check on their neighbors.

Beryl has been blamed for at least seven deaths — one in Louisiana and six in Texas, officials said.

The storm weakened after making landfall, and late Tuesday morning it was a post-tropical cyclone centered over northeastern Arkansas, moving northeast with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph (48 kph), the weather service said. Its strength wasn’t expected to change much in the next two days.

CLIMATE GLIMPSE: Heat and a hurricane descend on the U.S., other wild weather around the world

The storm is forecast to bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding from the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes into Wednesday, the weather service said.

A flood watch was in effect for parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. A few tornadoes were possible in Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, forecasters said.

Beryl came ashore in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane, far less powerful than the behemoth that tore a deadly path through parts of Mexico and the Caribbean. But its winds and rains still knocked down hundreds of trees that had already been teetering in saturated earth and stranded dozens of cars on flooded roads.

It could take days to fully return power in Texas after Beryl toppled 10 transmission lines. Top priorities for power restoration include nursing homes and assisted living centers, said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who is acting as governor while Gov. Greg Abbott is out of the country.

Powerful storms in the area in May killed eight people, left nearly 1 million without power and flooded streets. Residents now without power after Beryl were doing their best.

“We haven’t really slept,” said Eva Costancio as she gazed at a large tree that had fallen across electric lines in the Houston suburb of Rosenberg. Costancio said she had already been without power for several hours and worried that food in her refrigerator would be spoiled.

“We are struggling to have food, and losing that food would be difficult,” she said.

The state was opening cooling centers, as well as food and water distribution centers, said Nim Kidd, chief of state emergency operations.

Beryl’s rains pounded Houston and other areas of the coast Monday, closing streets that had already been washed out by previous storms. Houston officials reported at least 25 water rescues by Monday afternoon, mostly for people with vehicles stuck in floodwaters.

Many streets and neighborhoods throughout Houston were littered with fallen branches and other debris. The buzz of chainsaws filled the air Monday afternoon as residents chopped up knocked-down trees and branches that had blocked streets and sidewalks. Several companies with refineries or industrial plants reported the power disruptions required the flaring of gases.

The earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, Beryl caused at least 11 deaths as it passed through the Caribbean on its way to Texas. In Jamaica, officials said Monday that island residents will have to contend with food shortages after Beryl destroyed over $6.4 million in crops and supporting infrastructure.

Just Gettin' Warmed Up

Dengue fever is surging worldwide. A hotter planet will make it worse.

Climate change helped fuel an explosion of dengue cases in the Americas, including Puerto Rico, as mosquitoes multiply in warmer, wetter weather.

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — The curly-haired girl came to the emergency room with fever, aches and signs of dehydration, common indications of many childhood illnesses. But the 9-year-old — pale and listless beneath her Pokémon blanket — looked sicker than most children and exhibited no respiratory symptoms. She could only whimper as a pediatrician stroked her hair and softly questioned her in Spanish.

The sharp-eyed doctor suspected dengue, a disease that is often missed but is now exploding around the world.

The girl, Genesis Polanco Marte, is among a record 10 million people who have fallen ill with dengue so far this year — an unprecedented surge that scientists say is fueled in part by climate change. Soaring global temperatures have accelerated the life cycles and expanded the ranges of the mosquitoes that carry dengue, helping spread the virus to roughly one in every 800 people on the planet in the past six months alone. An influx of patients has overwhelmed hospitals from Brazil to Bangladesh, recalling the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic. Puerto Rico declared a public health emergency this spring, with more dengue cases reported in the first five months of 2024 than all of last year. Public health officials are bracing for the virus to crop up in more temperate regions, including the southernmost portions of the United States.

“The storm’s comin’, folks,” Grayson Brown, executive director of the nonprofit Puerto Rico Vector Control Unit, advised a group of California officials in a recent webinar. “It’s here in Puerto Rico, but you guys are going to feel it pretty soon.”

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of an increased risk of dengue infections in the United States, urging clinicians to stay on alert for the disease when treating feverish patients who have traveled to places with dengue transmission.

But even as human-made warming spurs cases to historic highs, dengue remains one of the world’s most neglected tropical diseases, according to the World Health Organization. Three out of four cases are mild or asymptomatic, making the illness difficult to track. And because the virus comes in four varieties, or serotypes, natural immunity after one illness does not protect against future infections with other types. What makes dengue unusual is that the risk of severe complications may actually increase with sequential infections of a different type.

There is no cure for the virus, which in severe cases can lead to plasma leaking from veins, internal bleeding, organ failure and, in rare instances, death. Unlike other illnesses, vaccination is complicated. Few options are available, and few people know about them. The only vaccine available in the United States is for children 9 to 16 years old who have already been infected with dengue — those most vulnerable to hospitalization. But it won’t be available after 2026.

The crisis in Puerto Rico is a warning sign for the rest of the United States. It shows how quickly an outbreak can metastasize in communities with fragile infrastructure, underfunded health systems and temperatures that get hotter with each passing year.

Without drastic action to control the virus and slow climate change, research suggests some 2 billion additional people across the globe could be at risk for dengue in the next 50 years.

Rising temperatures spur global dengue spread

Relatives mourn 10-year-old Fer Maria Ancajima, who died of dengue, during the wake at her house in Catacaos district, Peru in June 2023. (Ernesto Benavides/AFP/Getty Images)
It has been more than a decade since Puerto Rico saw its last dengue outbreak. Though the virus is endemic in the territory and typically recurs every five to seven years, that cycle was interrupted by the emergence of Zika — a closely related virus that tore through the island in 2016 and gave some cross protection against dengue — and the isolation measures necessitated by the coronavirus.

But the return of global travel — especially Caribbean cruises — brought thousands of tourists who had been exposed to dengue elsewhere, introducing strains that hadn’t been dominant in Puerto Rico. The virus spread swiftly through the population of susceptible people, reaching Genesis in late May.

The girl had been feverish for several days before she arrived at the hospital. Her doctor, Zurisadai Rivera Acosta, pressed on the girl’s fingertip and saw it took longer than normal for the color beneath to return to pink — a sign of dehydration. More concerning, the doctor noted, she had begun vomiting and her count of blood platelets was low. Rivera admitted the girl to the hospital amid signs her condition was deteriorating. Genesis was one of 91 dengue cases reported in Puerto Rico that week, health department data show.

Puerto Rico public health officials are bracing for case counts to soar as the island heads into the hot and rainy season. By mid-June, the territory had reported more than 1,500 cases. At least two people have died.

Sweltering and stormy is the preferred weather for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that is the main vector for dengue in the Americas. It lays its eggs wherever there is standing water: in vent pipes of septic tanks, water meters, discarded tires and broken flower pots. A single bottle cap filled with rainwater can hold more than 100 eggs, said Sadie Ryan, a medical geographer at the University of Florida who specializes in insect-borne diseases.

“They’re tenacious, they’re pernicious,” Ryan said. “Really, they’re just good at being everywhere.”

Its eating habits further bolster the bug’s ability to wreak havoc. Unlike the mosquitoes that transmit malaria, which require only a single blood meal before laying their eggs, female Aedes aegypti are “sippers,” Ryan said. They behave like tiny vampires at a human buffet, flitting from person to person, potentially spreading disease with each bite.

In Puerto Rico’s crowded urban areas, most families cannot afford air conditioning so they keep cool by opening windows and doors, which lack screens to keep mosquitoes out.

Meanwhile, human-caused warming is spawning an explosion of mosquitoes here.

Greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels, have raised average temperatures in the commonwealth by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950, according to the National Centers for Climate Information.

The change has been a boon to Aedes aegypti, which is able to transmit diseases at higher temperatures than other mosquito species. In laboratory experiments, researchers have found that warmer conditions can make the insect grow faster, bite more people and lay more eggs. Heat also makes the dengue virus more infectious and allows it to replicate faster inside its hosts.

Models and real-world data show that these mosquitoes can transmit dengue at temperatures ranging from 64 to 94.1 degrees Fahrenheit — conditions that are found in Puerto Rico every month of the year.

Though this species is found in several states, including Texas, Florida and even California, the mosquito’s predilection for heat has historically limited dengue’s reach. Even when the virus hitches a ride via travelers from tropical regions, low nighttime and winter temperatures prevent it from spreading very far.

But officials are increasingly concerned that rising temperatures could set the stage for more outbreaks in the United States. Florida has already reported eight cases from local spread this year, health department data show — and the state’s warmest months are yet to come.

“Even one case in an area that doesn’t usually see dengue can consume a large number of resources, as well as create considerable public concern,” said Gabriela Paz-Bailey, chief of the CDC’s dengue branch in Puerto Rico. “It means the mosquito has acquired the virus, and you have the potential for additional transmission happening.”

In tropical regions across Latin America, Africa and Asia, where dengue once circulated primarily during summer months, a lengthening warm season is turning the disease into a year-round phenomenon. Meanwhile, the shifting climate is allowing dengue to infiltrate temperate regions and high-altitude communities where it has never been found before.

Nepal, which hadn’t seen a dengue case before 2004, recorded more than 50,000 cases in each of the last two years. Mauritius and Chad have experienced their first-ever significant outbreaks in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Italy, France and Spain documented dozens of instances of local transmission of the virus in 2023 — suggesting the disease may be gaining a foothold in spots where winter cold once kept it at bay.

But it’s not just rising temperatures that contribute to disease spread, researchers say. Climate-induced droughts can prompt people to stockpile water, creating more mosquito habitat. Escalating hurricanes and floods also produce standing water while simultaneously forcing people from their homes and increasing their exposure to mosquitoes, said Mallory Harris, a disease ecologist at Stanford University.

By combining climate models with simulations of disease spread, Harris is developing techniques that can help link cases to climate disasters — and project how future storms and droughts could trigger new outbreaks. In an analysis of Cyclone Yaku, which ravaged Peru’s northern coast in March 2023, she found that the storm was responsible for 33,000 dengue cases. Nearly 400 people died of the virus.

Only U.S. dengue vaccine runs out in 2026

The fact that the dengue virus comes in multiple serotypes and has an unusual mechanism for causing severe illness in people makes it especially tricky to fight. An infection with one type generates disease-fighting antibodies that protect a person from future infection with that variety. But those same antibodies can bind to viruses of a different serotype, facilitating their entry and causing more severe illness. (WTF? 🤨)

Dengvaxia, developed by the French-based manufacturer Sanofi, is the only vaccine approved for use in the United States. It protects against all four dengue types and is approved for children 9 to 16 years old living in high-risk areas such as Puerto Rico. The shots are covered by most health insurance plans. But the three-dose regimen — administered six months apart over the course of a year to be fully protected — requires patients to have a laboratory-confirmed previous dengue infection. It’s the only vaccine with such a requirement, complicating rollout efforts in vulnerable communities.

In May, WHO expanded the use of a second vaccine, Qdenga, which is already approved in several hard-hit countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia and throughout Europe. The vaccine, developed by the Japanese company Takeda and is recommended by WHO for children ages 6 to 16, requires only two shots and can be used regardless of prior infection. But the company withdrew its application from the Food and Drug Administration in July 2023 because of data collection issues.

A third vaccine being developed by the National Institutes of Health is still in clinical trials and won’t be available in the United States for at least a few years.

Meanwhile, health-care workers in Puerto Rico lament that few residents know about Dengvaxia.

At HealthProMed, Hector Villanueva, the community clinic’s senior adviser for dengue, urged Mayra Rivera to vaccinate her teenage nephews, who Rivera took in this year after their parents died. The boys had been hospitalized with fever, vomiting and diarrhea from the virus in January. Villanueva warned they could become even more severely ill if they were to be infected again.

Rivera eagerly signed them up for shots. The 13-year-old, whose diabetes can make dengue more lethal, received his first dose in April. His older brother is scheduled to receive his shot in July.

But uptake among other children in Puerto Rico has been slow. Many parents aren’t aware of dengue’s dangers and after the pandemic, are tired of hearing about getting more vaccines, Villanueva said.

“Most of the cases, they didn’t know they have dengue or they may have mild to moderate symptoms, so there is low perception of risk,” Villanueva said. “Parents are saying, ‘What are you talking about? Dengue, does that still exist?’”

Only 145 children in Puerto Rico have started the vaccine series since it became available in 2022, according to CDC — a tiny fraction of the roughly 140,000 eligible.

And now access to the vaccine is closing. A few months before Puerto Rico declared its public health emergency in March, Sanofi informed U.S. officials that it has stopped producing Dengvaxia because of low demand. The last doses will expire in August 2026.

Adam Gluck, who leads Sanofi’s U.S. corporate affairs, said the company tried making the vaccine easy to access but the complexity of screening for a prior infection before administering the required three doses kept demand low. The decision to discontinue the vaccine “is not driven by quality, safety or efficacy concerns,” he said in a statement.

Rivera said she is grateful her nephews qualify to receive the shots but is dismayed other children will no longer have the chance to protect themselves against dengue. “If they stop making these vaccines,” she said, “a lot of people will die.”

Combating dengue in Puerto Rico

On a recent steamy morning, a mosquito-control technician from Puerto Rico’s Vector Control Unit peered into a trap outside a home, a plastic bucket filled with water and hay whose odor was designed to attract egg-laying females. Sure enough, when he opened the trap, a mosquito with white markings was stuck on the special adhesive paper.

With schools out for the summer, another group of technicians went from classroom to classroom at a nearby elementary school, trapping mosquitoes to identify locations that could have been super spreaders. Workers thrust vacuum-like machines along walls, in corners, under piles of papers to flush out the insects, then caught their quarry in butterfly nets.

Unlike many mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti tend to bite during the day and are resistant to the most commonly used insecticide. So officials must focus on identifying and destroying mosquito habitats in high-transmission areas to reduce spread.

Teams rely on low-tech traps placed outside homes to collect mosquitoes, then test them to determine what percentage carry the virus. In areas with high rates of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, field teams apply larvicide and go door-to-door urging residents to use repellent and get rid of breeding grounds, authorities said.

The ongoing explosion of cases presages a future in which dengue becomes one of the dominant mosquito-borne threats to humanity, experts said, in some countries even eclipsing malaria. As temperatures in tropical regions get too hot for other mosquito species, Aedes aegypti is poised to take over.

Singapore, Brazil and Colombia have programs to infect mosquitoes with a bacteria called Wolbachia, which blocks offspring released into the wild from transmitting the dengue virus. But that expensive and labor-intensive strategy has not been approved in the United States.

In Puerto Rico, one big challenge remains awareness among clinicians, who seldom treat the disease. The CDC and Puerto Rico health department are training doctors to monitor for warning signs of severe dengue, including abdominal pain, persistent vomiting and bleeding from the gums or nose. Unlike other diseases, where fever reduction is often a sign someone is getting better, the reverse is true for dengue.

Rivera, the emergency room pediatrician who recently treated 9-year-old Genesis, said she recognized the dengue symptoms in the young patient only because her own aunt and cousin had contracted dengue during the coronavirus pandemic. When Rivera rushed them to a hospital, doctors insisted the two had covid, not dengue. Her aunt almost died, Rivera said.

“There’s no rapid test for dengue,” Rivera said. “We have to diagnose it clinically.”

Genesis received intravenous fluids in the hospital, and her platelet count gradually trended up. Three days later, she was allowed to go home. Despite her recovery, the girl remains vulnerable to a second infection.

The mosquitoes are out here, waiting to bite.

Too Fuckin' Bad, Bubba

Worst rainfall that triggered floods in Florida is over as affected residents clean up

A tropical disturbance brings a rare flash flood emergency to Miami and much of southern Florida

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Although more rain could trigger additional isolated Florida flooding on Friday, forecasters say the strong, persistent storms that dumped up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) in southern parts of the state appear to have passed.

Some neighborhood streets in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas still have standing water, although it is rapidly receding, officials said.

This aerial view taken from video shows multiple cars stranded on a road in Northeast Miami-Dade County, Fla., on Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Daniel Kozin)

“The worst flooding risk was the last three days,” said Sammy Hadi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. “The heaviest rainfall has concluded.”

The no-name storm system pushed across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico at roughly the same time as the early June start of hurricane season, which this year is forecast to be among the most active in recent memory amid concerns that climate change is increasing storm intensity.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held a media briefing in Hollywood, south of Fort Lauderdale, and said while more rain was coming, it’s likely to be more typical of South Florida afternoon showers this time of year.

“We are going to get some more rain today, maybe throughout the balance of the weekend. Hopefully it’s not approaching the levels that it was, but we have a lot of resources staged here and we’ll be able to offer the state’s assistance,” he said.

The Change Is Real

When the plutocrats clutch their pearls, and blanch at the prospect of having to take a hit in order to move away from an economy that they've totally geared for dirty fuels, they always scream about the enormous cost that all you little people will have to bear, so don't fuck with us and maybe we'll throw you a tiny bone sometime and blah blah blah.

Guess what.

Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product, researchers have found

The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

A 3C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently”, it adds.

“There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.

“I think everyone could imagine what they would do with an income that is twice as large as it is now. It would change people’s lives.”

Bilal said that purchasing power, which is how much people are able to buy with their money, would already be 37% higher than it is now without global heating seen over the past 50 years. This lost wealth will spiral if the climate crisis deepens, comparable to the sort of economic drain often seen during wartime.

“Let’s be clear that the comparison to war is only in terms of consumption and GDP – all the suffering and death of war is the important thing and isn’t included in this analysis,” Bilal said. “The comparison may seem shocking, but in terms of pure GDP there is an analogy there. It’s a worrying thought.”

The paper places a much higher estimate on economic losses than previous research, calculating a social cost of carbon, which is the cost in dollars of damage done per each additional ton of carbon emissions, to be $1,056 per ton. This compares to a range set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that estimates the cost to be around $190 per ton.

Bilal said the new research takes a more “holistic” look at the economic cost of climate change by analyzing it on a global scale, rather than on an individual country basis. This approach, he said, captured the interconnected nature of the impact of heatwaves, storms, floods and other worsening climate impacts that damage crop yields, reduce worker productivity and reduce capital investment.

“They have taken a step back and linking local impacts with global temperatures,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University who wasn’t involved in the work and said it was significant. “If the results hold up, and I have no reason to believe they wouldn’t, they will make a massive difference in the overall climate damage estimates.”

The paper found that the economic impact of the climate crisis will be surprisingly uniform around the world, albeit with lower-income countries starting at a lower point in wealth. This should spur wealthy countries such as the US, the paper points out, to take action on reducing planet-heating emissions in its own economic interest.

Even with steep emissions cuts, however, climate change will bear a heavy economic cost, the paper finds. Even if global heating was restrained to little more than 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century, a globally agreed-upon goal that now appears to have slipped from reach, the GDP losses are still around 15%.

“That is still substantial,” said Bilal. “The economy may keep growing but less than it would because of climate change. It will be a slow-moving phenomenon, although the impacts will be felt acutely when they hit.”

The paper follows separate research released last month that found average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years compared to what they would’ve been without the climate crisis. Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research.

Both papers make clear that the cost of transitioning away from fossil fuels and curbing the impacts of climate change, while not trivial, pale in comparison to the cost of climate change itself. “Unmitigated climate change is a lot more costly than doing something about it, that is clear,” said Wagner.

Comin' Up Fast

This piece says straight out that it'll take 40 years to stop the increase in CO2, even if we could slow our emissions dramatically starting right now.

And if we got those emissions down close to zero by the end of this century, it'll take another 200 years for CO2 to drop below 400ppm again.

Seems like it's getting harder not to shrug and say, "We're fucked anyway - why bother."

But here's the thing: It's not unreasonable for me to do something good now, so as to make things better for people two centuries after I'm dead.

I'll never sit in the shade of an oak tree I plant today, and I don't need my magnificent foresight acknowledged by someone who will.

A lab on a Hawaii volcano is capturing ominous signals about the planet’s health

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever.

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa’s Observatory just captured an ominous sign about the pace of global warming.

Atmospheric levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide aren’t just on their way to yet another record high this year — they’re rising faster than ever, according to the latest in a 66-year-long series of observations.

Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever measured at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration laboratory atop a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island. And from January through April, CO2 concentrations increased faster than they have in the first four months of any other year. Data from Mauna Loa is used to create the Keeling Curve, a chart that daily plots global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, tracked by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego.

For decades, CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa in the month of May have broken previous records. But the recent acceleration in atmospheric CO2, surpassing a record-setting increase observed in 2016, is perhaps a more ominous signal of failing efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the damage they cause to Earth’s climate.

“Not only is CO2 still rising in the atmosphere — it’s increasing faster and faster,” said Arlyn Andrews, a climate scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

A historically strong El Niño climate pattern that developed last year is a big reason for the spike. But the weather pattern only punctuated an existing trend in which global carbon emissions are rising even as U.S. emissions have declined and the growth in global emissions has slowed.

The spike is “not surprising,” said Ralph Keeling, director of the CO2 Program at Scripps Institution, “because we’re also burning more fossil fuel than ever.”

Why carbon dioxide levels keep rising

Carbon dioxide levels naturally ebb and flow throughout each year. At Mauna Loa, they peak in April and May and then decline until August and September. This follows the growth cycle of northern hemisphere plants: growing — and sequestering away carbon — during the summer months and releasing it during fall and winter as they die and decompose.

Once CO2 makes it into the atmosphere, it stays there for hundreds of years, acting as a blanket trapping heat. That blanket has been steadily thickening ever since humans turned materials that were once dense stores of carbon — oil and coal, primarily — into fuel to burn.

That means the Keeling Curve reaches new heights each May, forming a new peak in a sawtooth-like pattern.

The Keeling Curve, a diagram of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations,
shows a spike each May as northern hemisphere plants grow -
yet the trend overall is upward.
(Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

The chart originated when Charles David Keeling, Ralph Keeling’s father, started recording atmospheric concentrations of CO2 atop the Mauna Loa volcano in the late 1950s. It was the first effort to measure the planet-warming gas on a continuing basis and helped alert scientists to the reality of the intensified greenhouse effect, global warming and its impact on the planet.

Each annual maximum has raised new alarm about the curve’s unceasing upward trend — nearing 427 parts per million in the most recent readings, which is more than 50 percent above preindustrial levels and the highest in at least 4.3 million years, according to NOAA. Atmospheric CO2 levels first surpassed 400 parts per million in 2014. Scientists said in 2016 that levels were unlikely to drop below that threshold again during the lifetime of even the youngest generations.

Since that year, carbon dioxide emissions tied to fossil fuel consumption have increased 5 percent globally, according to Scripps.

Why annual increases vary

The increase in carbon dioxide from year to year is not precisely consistent. One factor that tends to cause levels to rise especially quickly: the El Niño climate pattern.

El Niño is linked to warmer-than-average surface waters along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. That warmth affects weather patterns around the world, triggering extreme heat, floods and droughts.

The droughts in particular contribute to higher-than-normal spikes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, Keeling said.

Tropical forests serve as reliable stores of carbon because they don’t go through the same seasonal decay as plant life at higher latitudes. But El Niño-linked droughts in tropical areas including Indonesia and northern South America mean less carbon storage within plants, Keeling said. Land-based ecosystems around the world tend to give off more carbon dioxide during El Niño because of the changes in precipitation and temperature the weather pattern brings, Andrews added.

That can allow CO2 concentrations to rise especially quickly on the tail end of El Niño events — such as the current one, which NOAA scientists said Thursday is likely to end this month.

The increase observed at Mauna Loa over the past year is some five times larger than the average annual increases seen in the 1960s, and about twice as large as in the 2010s, according to NOAA data.

A record surge in early 2016 was also at the end of a historically strong El Niño.

Why carbon matters

It will take some four decades to stop the annual growth in CO2 concentrations, even if all emissions began declining now, Andrews said. Because Earth’s carbon cycle is so far out of its natural equilibrium, plants, soils and oceans would give off stores of extra CO2 in response to any reduction in humans’ emissions, she said.

And for CO2 concentrations to fall back below 400 parts per million, it would take more than two centuries even if emissions dropped close to zero by the end of this century, she added.

In the natural carbon cycle, the element passes through air, soil and water, and plants and animals, eventually making its way into deep ocean sediments and fossils deep underground. Carbon’s movement throughout Earth systems helps regulate our planet’s temperatures — unlike on Venus, for instance, where CO2 accounts for most of the atmosphere, making that planet’s surface hellishly hot.

But human emissions of CO2 throw that system out of balance. It’s like adding more and more trash to a dump, Andrews said. Even if each load of trash gets smaller, “it’s still piling up.”