If Only

I've been wondering why I haven't heard much about how Trump's fuckup in Iran could be making for some very good reasons to push harder for wind and solar.

I asked Google's AI where we'd be if we'd stuck with renewables when we had the chance.

AI Overview

If the U.S. had kept its 1970s push for wind and solar, the nation could have "solved" its carbon footprint decades ago. America would have gained immense geopolitical power by ending reliance on foreign oil, and electricity would likely be a cheap, stable utility today.

In the 1970s, the U.S. faced severe oil shortages and gas lines. President Jimmy Carter treated this crisis like a war. He created renewable tax breaks, expanded early green energy research, and installed White House solar panels.

If the US had stayed on that path:

1. A different political and economic reality

In the 1980s, oil prices dropped. The U.S. shifted back to fossil fuels, and President Ronald Reagan removed the White House solar panels. If the US had stayed with wind and solar, it would have spent the last 50 years mastering clean tech instead of fighting endless wars to protect global oil routes. Everyday citizens would have been insulated from global gas price spikes.

2. Global leadership in green technology

During the 1970s, the U.S. led the world in developing early solar technology and modern wind power. When the U.S. cut funding in the 1980s, countries like Germany and Japan took American research and ran with it. If the U.S. had stayed the course, American companies would likely control the multi-trillion-dollar global green energy market today.

3. The climate crisis avoided

Today, about $1.4 trillion is spent globally each year on fossil fuel subsidies. If the U.S. had converted to wind and solar in the 1970s, greenhouse gas emissions would have plummeted decades ago. We would not face today's intense climate anxiety, and the aging US electric grid would have been modernized long ago.

The Fires

Data reveals that wildfires in Colorado have become more frequent, larger, and more variable over the previous 30 years.

The average number of fires per year has increased sharply, rising from 13 in the 1990s, to nearly 50 in the 2000s, and surpassing 70 annual fires by the 2020s.

The increase in population is a factor, but it seems obvious to me that the real driver is Climate Change.

It's drier and hotter than ever.

The snowpack was as low as 30% of normal, and while the flow is still pretty good now, we got to the end of the snowmelt pretty early,  and the flow at the headwaters of the Colorado River may not be able to support the downstream demand in Arizona, Nevada, and California.

Lake Powell is at 23% full, and Lake Mead is at 28% full.

And the kicker: the soil is drying out now too.

But Wait There's More

Americans Are About to Pay Even More at the Grocery Store

As Americans confront a surge in prices at the pump, another inflation wave is headed for the grocery store.

A combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace. In April, they rose by the most in nearly four years, and economists say the impact of the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures into 2027.

The hit to US household finances from higher grocery bills is set to intensify just ahead of the November midterm elections, amplifying affordability as a defining issue. And to a greater extent than the surge in gas prices, the slower-moving food shock will be difficult to reverse quickly because the size of autumn harvests is determined by planting decisions made in the spring.

“It’s going to be a challenging year,” said Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. “Food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it.”

The latest USDA food price outlook, published Friday, projected a 3.2% advance in grocery prices this year, while Volpe said he expects inflation more on the order of 4% to 4.5%.

James Giese of Madison, Wisconsin said he lives on his own but is making adjustments with rising grocery prices like cutting back on prepared foods and meat. Giese, 62, is even trying to grow potatoes in his backyard to supplement his food budget.

“I’m very concerned,” he said. “I’m probably considered middle-income, but it’s starting to pinch.”

Outsize price increases so far in 2026 have reflected a mix of bad luck, trade policy and slower-moving pressures linked to climate change. The weather in particular has not been kind to American farmers, who have endured outbursts of record-breaking heat, historic cold, ping-pong size hail and wildfires.

The US saw its warmest-ever start to the year, with temperatures running about 6F (3C) above average through the end of April, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The early heat prompted some domestic crops to begin blossoming weeks ahead of schedule instead of remaining dormant throughout the winter, leaving them exposed to subsequent frosts, according to Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.

Beef prices, among the most politically sensitive in the US, rose to a record in April thanks to the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, squeezed by drought and high production costs.

Tomato prices, meanwhile, surged 33% over the last two months after two winter storms brought widespread damage during the peak of the growing season in Florida — while shipments from Mexico were declining following the Trump administration’s imposition of duties on imports.

Heat and drought in the western and central US spell more pressures to come. California accounts for almost half of annual US vegetable and three-quarters of fruit and nut cash receipts, and diminished snowpack in the Sierra Nevada this year — to just 23% of typical levels as of mid-April — has raised concerns about irrigation supplies.

Drought has also spread across the nation’s breadbasket, where staple wheat crops that are typically used to make all-purpose flour or pasta have withered for lack of rain. As of May 19, 70% of US winter wheat production was in areas of drought, along with 25% of corn production, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

And forecasters now say an El Niño weather pattern is likely to emerge by August, with rising odds of an unusually powerful event that will persist into 2027 and push global average temperatures higher. El Niño can often steer extra rain to California, but it’s also been known to fuel drought outside the US in major growing areas for rice, coffee, cocoa and more.

Then there’s the war, which has brought a massive shock to global fertilizer markets due to the Middle East’s role as a major supplier of inputs.

Prices of fertilizer are up 20% since the war began, according to a Green Markets index for North America. That will likely mean higher prices come harvest time, and if farmers decide to scale back applications, that would also leave crops less able to withstand heat, drought or flooding.

The higher cost of fuel itself will also find its way into prices on store shelves as farmers and carriers pay up for diesel to power tractors and trucks, and petroleum-based plastic packaging becomes more expensive.

Major grocery chains have been trying to hold the line on pricing. Kroger Co.’s chief executive officer said it’s planning a price-cutting push to compete more fiercely with Walmart Inc., which has expanded its efforts to keep prices low over the last year.

Consumers are already worn out because prices have continued to climb even though the rate of food inflation has come down, said Andrew Harig, a vice president with the trade group FMI, the Food Industry Association.

At the same time, household debt is rising, the personal saving rate is falling, and real average hourly earnings fell in the 12 months through April for the first time in three years. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published data Wednesday indicating a “meaningful” increase in measures of food insecurity between October 2025 and February 2026.

“Lots of people, I think, still look at their pre-Covid grocery bill in 2019, early 2020 and say, ‘Wow, I’m paying significantly more,’” Harig said. “And so they’re feeling that stretch.”

Bad And Getting Worse

More than 60 percent of U.S. is covered by drought as impacts worsen

See where one of the worst droughts so far this century is hitting hardest and continues to deepen.

Large swaths of the United States are in desperate need of soaking rainfall as drought continues to deepen.

Stretching from Oregon to Florida and northward to the nation’s capital, nearly 63 percent of the country is facing drought conditions of varying intensity, just 2 percentage points shy of the most widespread drought this century, which occurred in 2012.

The driest state compared with its average has been Utah, where there has been a 59 percent reduction in precipitation since October. Not far behind are Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, seeing a 46, 43 and 39 percent reduction, respectively.

“The West’s hydrology and climate are very much out of sync with the historical rhythm,” said assistant Utah state climatologist Jon Meyer.

In Utah, there is some trepidation on what the next few months will look like for water consumption, Meyer said. Record low winter snowfall and record high March temperatures resulted in extremely premature snowpack melt and dismal water runoff volumes. That is also the case in Colorado, where “the mountain snowpack is in historically bad shape,” Colorado state climatologist Russ Schumacher wrote earlier this month.

Where drought is hitting hardest

This drought is stretching far and wide.

A total of nine states — Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Jersey, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia as well as D.C. — are completely covered by drought. Drought is also affecting more than 99 percent of the land area in Florida and Arkansas.

Six other states are experiencing drought coverage greater than 90 percent: Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maryland.

The Sunshine State has been living up to its name, but some soaking rain would be welcome in Florida. This has been the worst drought in the state so far this century, with exceptional drought — the highest severity level — affecting 23 percent of the state, linked to a La Niña climate pattern that formed last fall and recently ended.

Florida State Climatologist David Zierden described wide-ranging impacts from drought, which included near-record-low river and streamflows in the northern part of the state, water restrictions and elevated wildfire potential. Impacts also include a hard-hit cattle industry because of a lack of pasture growth, and dry soils that were making it difficult to plant row crops such as corn, peanuts, cotton and soybeans.

“Hurricane debris and downed trees from Hurricane Helene in 2024 are adding more flammable fuel,” Zierden said.

He also said a lack of moisture from hurricanes last season added to the dryness, because 20 to 30 percent of late-summer and fall rainfall is from tropical systems in Florida.

“If the rainy season is late or less robust, impacts can really intensify,” he said. The rainy season begins May 15.

In Georgia, 27 percent of the land area experiencing an exceptional drought. The climate office there recently wrote that dozens of counties were placed under burn bans because of ongoing wildfires — including one that destroyed at least 120 homes — and extremely dry fuels. Dusty soil as well as hard, cracked ground, poor pasture conditions and low pond levels have been reported by farmers and ranchers statewide.

Drought impacts were becoming more apparent in North Carolina, said the state climate office. In Raleigh, the first stage of water restrictions has been implemented, limiting residents to once-weekly outdoor watering. However, the drinking water supply remains strong. A statewide burn ban is also in place.

Only two states — Michigan and North Dakota — are completely drought-free.

Is any relief coming?

Drought conditions are expected to continue into summer across the Intermountain West and Plains, according to the latest drought outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that goes through July. The agency also highlighted a likely expansion of drought across the Northwest.

“Poor snow conditions across the Sierras will also be a concern for California, which relies on recharge from snowmelt to maintain reservoir levels and adequate streamflow during the summer dry season,” they wrote.

An extensive marine heat wave in the Pacific could contribute more moisture that brings a robust monsoon season to parts of the West, but any such relief is still months away.

Meyer added that summer rainfall doesn’t affect Utah’s water resources significantly, but that higher humidity can lessen evaporation, which is “preserving our pool of optimism in the Utah weather/climate community.”

Farther east, drought is also forecast to continue, but its intensity may diminish in parts of the South, including Florida — if the rainy season proves robust. Into May, there will be more storms tracking across the region because of a stronger jet stream, which is linked to a forming El Niño.

Across the Mid-Atlantic, drought is also expected to continue, though coming cooler weather and some potential rain into May could slow its intensification.

We Told Ya

The planet has entered a ‘new reality’ as it hits its first climate tipping point, landmark report finds

The planet is grappling with a “new reality” as it reaches the first in a series of catastrophic and potentially irreversible climate tipping points: the widespread death of coral reefs, according to a landmark report produced by 160 scientists across the world.

As humans burn fossil fuels and ratchet up temperatures, it’s already driving more severe heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. But there are even bigger impacts on the horizon. Climate change may also be pushing Earth’s crucial systems — from the Amazon rainforest to polar ice sheets — so far out of balance they collapse, sending catastrophic ripples across the planet.

“We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature,” said Tim Lenton, a professor at the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and an author of the report published Sunday.

Warm water corals are the first, according to the report.

Since 2023, the world’s reefs have been enduring the worst mass bleaching event on record as oceans reach record high temperatures, with more than 80% affected. What was an underwater riot of color and life is being replaced with a bleached, seaweed-dominated landscape.

“We have now pushed (coral reefs) beyond what they can cope with,” said Mike Barrett, chief scientific advisor at the World Wildlife Fund UK and co-author of the report. Unless global warming is reversed “extensive reefs as we know them will be lost,” the authors wrote.

The impacts will have far-reaching consequences. Coral reefs are an essential habitat for marine species, vital for food security, contribute trillions to the global economy and buffer coastal areas from storms.

There’s even worse to come if temperatures continue to rise. The planet is on the brink of several more tipping points as it’s all but certain to breach the globally agreed goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the report.

One of the most alarming of these is the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a crucial network of ocean currents known as the AMOC. This would have catastrophic global consequences, pushing parts of the world into a deep freeze, heating up others, disrupting monsoon seasons and raising sea levels.

“There is now a risk that collapse could occur within the lifetime of people born and living on the planet today,” Barrett said.

The world is not prepared for the impacts of crossing these tipping points, said Manjana Milkoreit, a researcher at the University of Oslo’s Department of Sociology and Human Geography and a report author.

Current policies and international agreements are “designed for gradual changes, not for these kinds of abrupt, irreversible and interconnected shifts,” she said. How governments respond now “could shape the Earth system for very long time,” she added.

Actions the report calls for include rapidly reducing planet-heating pollution and scaling up carbon removal from the atmosphere.

The world will overshoot 1.5 degrees, Lenton said, but the key will be minimizing further warming above this level and bringing the temperature back down as rapidly as possible.

Amid its alarming findings, the report also pulled out some positive news, including the “radical global acceleration” of solar power and electric vehicles, as well as batteries and heat pumps. Once replaced, polluting technologies are unlikely to come back as cleaner options are cheaper and better, it found.

The report comes just a month before governments gather in Brazil for COP30, the annual United Nations climate conference. This year is particularly important as countries are supposed to set out their goals for bringing down emissions over the next decade.

“This grim situation must be a wake-up call that unless we act decisively now, we will also lose the Amazon rainforest, the ice sheets and vital ocean currents,” Barrett said. “In that scenario, we would be looking at a truly catastrophic outcome for all humanity.”

Alaska

The National Weather Service issues Alaska’s first ever heat advisory

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — For the first time ever, parts of Alaska will be under a heat advisory — but you can put an asterisk at the end of that term.

It’s not the first instance of unusually high temperatures in what many consider the nation’s coldest state, but the National Weather Service only recently allowed for heat advisories to be issued there. Information on similarly warm weather conditions previously came in the form of “special weather statements.”

Using the heat advisory label could help people better understand the weather’s severity and potential danger, something a nondescript “special weather statement” didn’t convey.

The first advisory is for Sunday in Fairbanks, where temperatures are expected to top 85 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius). Fairbanks has been warmer in the past, but this is unusual for June, officials said.

Here’s what to know about Alaska’s inaugural heat advisory:

Why it’s the first

The National Weather Service’s switch from special weather statements to advisories was meant to change how the public views the information.

“This is an important statement, and the public needs to know that there will be increasing temperatures, and they could be dangerous because Alaska is not used to high temperatures like these,” said Alekya Srinivasan, a Fairbanks-based meteorologist.

“We want to make sure that we have the correct wording and the correct communication when we’re telling people that it will be really hot this weekend,” she said.

Not unprecedented and not climate change

The change doesn’t reflect unprecedented temperatures, with Fairbanks having reached 90 degrees twice in 2024, Srinivasan said. It’s purely an administrative change by the weather service.

So this particular warning isn't about climate change - and can't possibly have any connection to climate change because Alaska hit 90ºF twice in 2024 - for the first time since a freak system parked over the place in 1915?

“It’s not that the heat in the interior that prompted Fairbanks to issue this is record heat or anything like that. It’s just now there’s a product to issue,” said Rich Thoman, a climate specialist at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.

Thoman also clarified that the term swap doesn’t have anything to do with climate change.

“I think some of it is related to the recognition that hot weather does have an impact on Alaska, and in the interior especially,” Thoman said.

Little air conditioning

While the temperatures in the forecast wouldn’t be considered extreme in other U.S. states, Thoman noted that most Alaska buildings don’t have air conditioning.

“And just the opposite, most buildings in Alaska are designed to retain heat for most of the year,” he said.

People can open their windows to allow cooler air in during early morning hours — if wildfires aren’t burning in blaze-prone state. But if it’s smoky and the windows have to remain shut, buildings can heat up very rapidly.

“Last year was the third year in a row in Fairbanks with more than a hundred hours of visibility-reducing smoke, the first time we’ve ever had three consecutive years over a hundred hours,” he said.

There’s only been two summers in Fairbanks in the 21st century with no hours of smoke that reduced visibility, a situation he said was commonplace from the 1950s to the 1970s.

What about Anchorage?

The Juneau and Fairbanks weather service offices have been allowed to issue heat advisories beginning this summer, but not the office in the state’s largest city of Anchorage — at least not yet. And, regardless, temperatures in the area haven’t reached the threshold this year at which a heat advisory would be issued.

Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist with the weather service, said by email that the Anchorage office is working on a plan to issue such advisories in the future.

It's Coming

‘Ticking time bomb’: Ocean acidity crosses vital threshold, study finds

The deep oceans have crossed a crucial boundary that threatens their ability to provide the surface with food and oxygen, a new study finds.

Nearly two-thirds of the ocean below 200 meters, or 656 feet, as well as nearly half of that above, have breached “safe” levels of acidity, according to findings published on Monday in Global Change Biology.

The fall in ocean pH is “a ticking time bomb for marine ecosystems and coastal economies,” Steve Widdicombe, director of science at the United Kingdom’s Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), said in a statement.

The study was funded in part by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a federal agency that has been targeted for steep cuts by the Trump White House, in large part because of its role in investigating climate change.

Some of the biggest changes in deep water are happening off the coast of western North America, home to extensive crab and salmon fisheries, the study found.

The core problem is one scientists have warned about for a long time: the continued global burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide — an acid when dissolved in water — is making the seas and oceans more acidic.

Or, technically, it’s making them less basic, which is to say: Less hospitable to species such as corals and clams that form the foundation of the ocean’s ecosystem.

“Most ocean life doesn’t just live at the surface — the waters below are home to many more different types of plants and animals,” lead author Helen Findlay of PML. “Since these deeper waters are changing so much, the impacts of ocean acidification could be far worse than we thought.”

As of five years ago, Findlay’s study noted, the oceans may have crossed a critical threshold in which oceanic levels of calcium carbonate — the main ingredient in limestones, and also the shells of those animals — fell to more than 20 percent below pre-industrial levels.

If true, that shift would mean the Earth has passed seven out of nine of the critical “planetary boundaries” needed to maintain its ecosystem, as the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found last year.

The nine critical planetary boundaries are thresholds that scientists have identified within which humanity can safely operate to maintain a stable and healthy Earth system. These boundaries relate to different aspects of the planet's functioning, and exceeding them can lead to abrupt or irreversible environmental changes with significant consequences. 

The nine planetary boundaries are:

1. ✔︎ Climate Change: Increased greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols in the atmosphere, leading to warming and other climate impacts
2. ✔︎ Change in Biosphere Integrity: Loss of biodiversity and species extinction, impacting ecosystem services and resilience
3. ➞ Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: Thinning of the ozone layer, increasing harmful UV radiation at the Earth's surface
4. ✔︎ Ocean Acidification: Increased acidity of ocean water due to the absorption of atmospheric CO2, impacting marine life and ecosystems
5. ✔︎ Modification of Biogeochemical Flows: Altering the natural cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus, which can lead to pollution and other environmental issues
6. ✔︎ Land System Change: Deforestation, desertification, and other changes in land use that can disrupt ecosystems and the carbon cycle
7. ✔︎ Freshwater Use: Over-extraction and pollution of freshwater resources, impacting ecosystems and human populations
8. ➞ Atmospheric Aerosol Loading: Changes in the amount of airborne particles in the atmosphere, affecting climate and air quality
9. ✔︎ Novel Entities: Introduction of synthetic chemicals and other new substances into the environment, potentially causing unforeseen impacts

That shift, Widdicombe of the Marine Lab said, means “we’re witnessing the loss of critical habitats that countless marine species depend on.”

“From the coral reefs that support tourism to the shellfish industries that sustain coastal communities,” he added, “we’re gambling with both biodiversity and billions in economic value every day that action is delayed.”

The further implications are even more serious. The reasons for the ocean’s rise in acid, or fall in base, is that its waters have absorbed about one-third of all the carbon dioxide released by surface burning of coal, oil and gas.

But the more carbon dioxide it absorbs, the lower its ability to absorb more — meaning faster warming on the surface.

Making that dynamic even more dramatic, seas and oceans have also absorbed 90 percent of the global heating that the Earth’s surface would have otherwise experienced, according to NASA.

In addition to absorbing heat and carbon dioxide, the ocean also provides 50 percent of the Earth’s oxygen — which comes from the very marine ecosystems that warming and acidification are threatening.

Ecosystem loss and fossil fuel burning mean that levels of oxygen below the surface are decreasing, as, more slowly, is oxygen above the surface.

That'll Suck

Earth may already be too hot for the survival of polar ice sheets, study says

If Earth stays at its current levels of warming -- below policymakers’ goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius -- polar ice sheets may melt, causing seas to rise and displacing coastal communities, a study finds.

Ten years ago, policymakers and nation states set the world’s most important climate goal: limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). If the Earth could stay below that threshold, a climate catastrophe and major rise in sea levels might be staved off.

But a group of scientists has demonstrated that if the world stays on course to warm up to 1.5 degrees — or even stays at its current level of 1.2 degrees above preindustrial levels — polar ice sheets will probably continue to quickly melt, causing seas to rise and displacing coastal communities, according to a study published Tuesday in Communications Earth and Environment.

“There was a kind of misunderstanding that 1.5 was going to solve all our problems,” said Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England who focuses on glaciers and ice sheets, and an author of the study. Now, the team surmised that limit is closer to around 1 degree Celsius, though more research is needed to come to an official conclusion.

The team focused on Greenland and Antarctica, behemoth ice sheets that together could raise global sea levels by more than 210 feet if they melted. They are losing around 370 billion metric tons of ice each year at a rate that has quadrupled since the 1990s.

To come to their analyses, scientists pored over more than 150 research papers and focused on three aspects of sea-level rise: recent observations of rapidly melting ice sheets, modeling that uses equations to predict how temperatures could affect the rates of ice melting, and past sea-level change tens of thousands of years ago.

To help gauge how high sea levels could rise over the coming centuries, scientists have looked back at what happened the last time the Earth was as warm as it is now: roughly 125,000 years ago, during a period known to scientists as the Last Interglacial.

Back then, research shows, a wobble in Earth’s orbit had changed how much sunlight hit the northern hemisphere, raising global temperatures. The warmer conditions allowed Neanderthals to venture into northern Europe. Mammoths and giant ground sloths migrated poleward. And the ice caps covering the Arctic and Antarctica began to melt, raising sea levels around the world.

A vast array of ancient evidence — including ice cores, fossils, deep sea sediments and even octopus DNA — allowed the researchers to reconstruct how this sea-level rise unfolded. For example, ancient coral reefs found 25 feet above the current sea surface mark where the water once reached. Bits of bedrock uncovered in the middle of the ocean reveal how icebergs calved off disintegrating glaciers and then drifted across the sea.

This research into Earth’s ancient climate has revealed that ice sheet collapse depends on complex processes and can happen at surprising speed. Pulses of sudden sea-level rise, when the ocean surface may have risen multiple feet in less than a century, indicated that the ice sheets could have crossed temperature thresholds that caused them to shed mass all at once.

The scientists then fed their findings into computer models of the Earth system, allowing them to confirm that the models’ outputs matched what actually occurred. This gave them confidence in the models’ forecasts for the future, and the results were sobering.

“Every fraction of a degree matters,” said Andrea Dutton, a research professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, who was a co-author of the study. “We can’t just adapt to this type of sea-level rise. We can’t just engineer our way out of this.”

Around 230 million people live within about three feet of sea level, the researchers noted. Over the coming centuries, if the Earth stays at the same temperature, the sea could rise several meters, displacing entire cities and even states.

Because of gravitational effects, said Stokes, places closer to the equator, including Pacific islands like Micronesia and some Caribbean islands, will experience more sea-level rise.

“It’s an existential threat,” he said. “Some of these entire states are going to be underwater in a few centuries.”

We're Blowin' it

Droughts will get worse, and there's a good probability we'll see a double/triple/fourple whammy of drought-then-flood-then-drought cycling in fairly quick succession.

We've fouled the nest, we may not be able to stop the worst of the consequences for having fouled the nest, which means that taking it all together, we're on track for the human species to go extinct sooner than we'd hoped.

Global soil moisture in ‘permanent’ decline due to climate change

A new study warns that global declines in soil moisture in the 21st century could mark a “permanent” shift in the world’s water cycle.

Combining data from satellites, sea level measurements and observations of “polar motion”, the research shows how soil moisture levels have decreased since the year 2000.

The findings, published in Science, suggest the decline is primarily driven by an increasingly thirsty atmosphere as global temperatures rise, as well as shifts in rainfall patterns.

Consequently, the researchers warn the observed changes are likely to be “permanent” if current warming trends continue.

An accompanying perspective article says the study provides “robust evidence” of an “irreversible shift” in terrestrial water sources under climate change.

The drying out of soil “increases the severity and frequency” of major droughts, with consequences for humans, ecosystems and agriculture, explains Dr Benjamin Cook, an interdisciplinary Earth system scientist working at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, who was not involved in the research.

He tells Carbon Brief:

“Droughts are one of the most impactful, expensive natural hazards out there, because they are typically persistent and long lasting. Everything needs water – ecosystems need water, agriculture needs water. People need water. If you don’t have enough water – you’re in trouble.”

Drying soil

Every year, around 6tn tonnes of water cycles through Earth’s land surface. When rain falls on land it gets held up in soil, wetlands, groundwater, lakes and reservoirs on its journey back to the oceans.

Soil moisture forms a critical part of the Earth’s system, helping to irrigate soil, cycle nutrients and regulate the climate.

The amount of water contained in the soil is sensitive to a range of factors, including changes in rainfall, evaporation, vegetation and climate – as well as human activity, such as intensive agriculture.

The research points to a “gradual decline” in soil moisture levels in the 21st century, kickstarted by a period of “sharp depletion” in the three years over 2000-02.

Specifically, the researchers find the depletion of soil moisture resulted in a total loss of 1,614bn tonnes (gigatonnes, or Gt) of water over 2000-02 and then 1,009Gt between 2002 and 2016.

(For context, ice loss in Greenland resulted in 900Gt of water loss over 2002-06.)

Soil moisture has not recovered as of 2021, according to the research, and is unlikely to pick up under present climate conditions.

Joint-lead author Prof Dongryeol Ryu, professor of hydrology and remote sensing at the University of Melbourne, explains to Carbon Brief:

“We observed a stepwise decline [in soil moisture] twice in the past two decades, interspersed within a continuously declining trend in soil moisture. We haven’t seen this trend earlier, so that is why this is very concerning.”

Ryu explains the decision to analyse changes to soil moisture on a global scale meant the researchers could confirm trends difficult to see in smaller geographic datasets:

“The unique thing we found through analysing these larger-scale measures is that – even if we have seen widely fluctuating ups and downs in precipitation and increasing temperature – the total water contained in the soil, as soil moisture and groundwater, has been declining gradually from around the beginning of this century.“

The maps below illustrate soil moisture changes in 2003-07 and 2008-12 against a 1995-99 baseline, as estimated by the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. The areas marked on the map in brown saw a drop in soil moisture and the areas marked in blue an increase in soil moisture.

The top map shows soil moisture depletion across large regions in eastern and central Asia, central Africa and North and South America over 2003-07. The lower map shows that “replenishment” in the years that followed occurred in relatively small parts of South America, India, Australia and North America.

Climate change

Ryu says the researchers “suspect that increasing temperature played an important role” in the decline in terrestrial water storage and soil moisture in the 21st century.

The study points to two factors driving gradual depletion of soil moisture over the last quarter century: fluctuations to rainfall patterns and increasing “evaporative demand”.

Evaporative demand refers to the atmosphere’s “thirst” for water, or how much moisture it can take from the land, vegetation and surface water.

Studies have highlighted how global evaporative demand has been increasing over the last two decades globally, impacting water availability, hurting crops and causing drought.

The new study notes that “increasing evaporative demand driven by a warming climate” suggests a “more consistent and widespread trend toward drying as temperatures rise”.

Ryu says the “very unusual” drop in water moisture observed over 2000-02 could be attributed to low levels of rainfall globally, which coincided with the “period when evaporative demand started increasing”.

Another – less pronounced – period of rapid soil moisture decline seen over 2015-16 can be attributed to droughts triggered by the 2014-16 El Niño event, Ryu notes.

Ryu says the study findings indicate that soil moisture can no longer bounce back from a dry year, as it has in the past:

“It used to be that when precipitation goes up again, we recover water in the soil. But because of this increasing evaporative demand, once we have strong El Niño years – which lead to much less rainfall for a year or two – it seems that we are not recovering the water fully because of increasing evaporative demand. Because of that – even if we have a wet year following dry years – the water in the soil doesn’t seem to recover.”

Cross-validation

Measuring changes in global soil moisture has historically presented a challenge to scientists, given the lack of comprehensive and direct observations of water in soil.

The researchers attempt to reduce this uncertainty by corroborating the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with three geophysical measurement datasets.

ERA5’s land surface modelling system uses meteorological and other input data to estimate water within the upper few metres of the soil.

These figures were compared with data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission – a joint satellite mission between NASA and the German Aerospace Center.

Running since 2002, the GRACE mission tracks changes to the Earth’s gravity by collecting data on groundwater depletion, ice sheet loss and sea level rise. These observations have revealed a persistent loss of water from land to the ocean.

The scientists also cross-reference the ERA5 reanalysis data with a century-old dataset that measures fluctuations in the rotation of the Earth as the distribution of mass on the planet changes.

(The redistribution of ice and water, such as melting ice sheets and depleting groundwater, causes the planet to wobble as it spins and its axis to shift slightly. This is known as “polar motion”.)

The third set of measurements the scientists use is global mean sea level height, which is collected by satellites.

To extract soil moisture changes from this set of data, the researchers subtracted other components of sea level rise from the overall total – including Greenland ice melt, Antarctica ice melt, the impact of increasing sea surface temperature (which expands water volume) and the contribution of groundwater.

This process of elimination left researchers with an estimate of the contribution of soil moisture to global sea level rise.

The study notes that both the sea surface height and polar motion observations “support the conclusion that the abrupt change in soil moisture is genuine”.

Ryu says using global average sea level rise and “Earth wobble” to track water redistribution on land is the “main innovation” applied in the paper.

He adds the value of “reverse engineering” the ERA5 dataset is to understand how to enhance land surface modelling in the future:

“By explaining all the contributing factors to this measurement, you can understand the process. And if you understand the process, you can actually predict what’s going to happen in the future if any of these factors change in a certain manner.”

NASA’s Dr Cook says the “corroborating evidence” supplied by the paper offers a “really strong case that there has been a large-scale decline in soil moisture in recent decades”.

However, he says the relatively short reference period of the study means that identifying the cause of the decline is less clear cut:

“Whether [the decline] is permanent or not is much more uncertain…On these timescales, internal natural variability can be really, really strong. Attributing this decline to something specific – either climate change or internal variability – is much much more difficult.”

Sea level rise

A notable finding in the study’s sea level rise analysis is that terrestrial water storage may have been the dominant driver of sea level rise in the early 21st century.

Specifically, the paper notes that the decline in terrestrial water storage over 2000-02 – when soil moisture plummeted – led to global average sea level rise of almost 2mm annually.

The researchers note this rate of sea level rise is “unprecedented” and “significantly higher” than the rate of sea level rise attributed to Greenland ice mass loss, which they note is approximately 0.8mm a year.

Prof Reed Maxwell, a professor at the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University, who was also not involved in the study, says the researchers’ efforts to compare soil moisture with other global water stores was “novel” and “opens the door to future study of a more holistic global water balance”.

‘Creeping disaster’

The paper notes that land surface and hydrological models require “substantial improvement” to accurately simulate changes in soil moisture in changing climate.

Current models do not factor the impacts of agricultural intensification, nor the ongoing “greening” of semi-arid regions – both of which “may contribute” to a further decline in soil moisture, it states.

Writing in a perspectives article published in Science, Prof Luis Samaniego from the department of computational hydrosystems at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research says that it is “essential” that next-generation models incorporate human-caused influences such as farming, large dams and irrigation systems.

The study posits that the “innovative methods” for estimating changes in global soil moisture presented in the study provide opportunities to “improve the present state of modelling at global and continental scales”.

More broadly, advances in scientific understanding of changes to soil moisture can help improve the world’s preparedness for drought.

Drought is often described as a “creeping disaster” – because by the time it is identified, it is usually already well under way,

Paper author Ryu explains:

“Unlike a flood and heatwaves, drought comes very very slowly – and has prolonged and delayed consequences. We better be prepared earlier than later, because once drought comes you can expect a long period of consequences.”

Dr Shou Wang, associate professor at the Hydroclimate Extremes Lab and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, who was not involved in the study, says the research findings are “crucial” for advancing understanding of the “potential drivers and dynamics” of “unprecedented hydrological extremes in a warming climate”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“This is breakthrough work that uncovers the drivers of hydrological regime changes, which are leading to unprecedented hydrological extremes such as compound and consecutive drought-flood events.”

Today's Belle

Trump got a billion dollars - or is in the process of getting a billion dollars - from the Dirty Fuels Cartel, and he's doing everything necessary to turn the US into New Russia.

Sea Level

Sea level rise is accelerating.

In the last 30 years, we've seen sea levels rise about 4 inches.

In the next 30 years, it's likely to go up another 12 inches.

A Little Science

Hurricanes are fueled by warm water. Warmer ocean water means more powerful storms, that don't dissipate as much or as quickly once they make landfall, plus they move slower, plus they can pick up even more water from a warmer atmosphere - so they dump more rain, and wash your ass away.

Hey, MAGA - stop voting for people who're purposefully ignoring the main cause of the storms that are getting you killed, and then cutting off the aid you need to recover.

Here We Go Again

Hey, MAGA - instead of swallowing a buncha stupid bullshit about "bad gubmint stealin' muh money to pay for illegal immigrants" (or whatever fucked up lies you're buying into today), maybe you could try looking to the coin-operated politicians you've been voting for.

a) They don't give a fuck about you, and...

b) They're the ones stealing from you in order to keep you ignorant, poor, and feeling grateful they don't fuck you over even more than they already have by lying to you about Climate Change

What's happening now is exactly what the science guys have been telling us would happen, you stupid fucking rubes.

And now, here comes another'n.

And I've already seen at least one fantasy tweet about how something must be up with that whole "weather weapons" thing cuz no hurricane has ever just appeared outa nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico like that, and blah blah blah.

A hurricane-type storm forms in the Gulf about once every 16 years

Sweet screamin' Jesus - you have to try to get your heads out of your asses. Please.

Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 strength on approach to Florida

The storm is expected to produce a devasting surge along Florida’s west coast, which could include the Tampa Bay area. Some decrease in strength is forecast ahead of landfall.

Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.

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Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached extreme levels — its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.

The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The explosive development has occurred over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to human-caused climate change.

Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate.

Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm — despite some weakening — is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.

Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet — including in Tampa Bay.

Depending on Milton’s exact track, Tampa could find itself in the most dangerous part of the hurricane. The vulnerable coastal city could suffer billions of dollars in damage in a worst-case-scenario track, which is a possible outcome. Some neighborhoods would be entirely inundated and inaccessible. Ongoing evacuations are expected to be the most expansive in Florida since Hurricane Irma struck in 2017.

It’s important to note that subtle shifts of only 5 to 10 miles in track will have an enormous bearing on surge outcomes. While it’s impossible to outline exactly who will see the worst surge at this point, a devastating surge is virtually a certainty somewhere along Florida’s west coast.

A storm surge watch is in effect from the southern tip of the Everglades to the mouth of the Suwanee River in the Big Bend. That includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor — the latter a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in late September 2022.

In addition, Milton will bring destructive winds — perhaps gusting over 100 mph at the coastline — as well as flooding rains and the risk of a few tornadoes. Hurricane watches span the southern part of Florida’s Big Bend, ravaged by Helene less than two weeks ago, to just south of Marco Island.

Tropical alerts for Hurricane Milton.

Widespread power outages are probable in Florida’s interior and even as far away as the state’s east coast and could affect cities such as Orlando and Daytona Beach — in addition to Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota.

Late Monday morning, the storm was centered about 130 miles west-northwest of the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and 720 miles southwest of Tampa, headed to the east-southeast at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn to the northeast Tuesday.

On satellite, the storm also exhibited an ominous “enveloped eyewall lightning” signature. Hurricanes only produce lightning when they’re strengthening, usually quickly. The entire eyewall, or innermost ring of ferocious winds, has been sparking hundreds of lightning strikes — a portent of a top-tier storm. The Hurricane Hunters even encountered hail when entering the eyewall from the northwest.

Milton is expected to affect some of the same areas that experienced a destructive surge from Helene, representing a major setback for recovery efforts. Parts of Florida’s west coast already saw a 5- to 7-foot storm surge and are in the process of removing debris and sand left over from Helene.

What are the areas most threatened by this storm?

The Tampa Bay to Fort Myers corridor is at greatest risk from the storm. Milton will be arriving from the west, a highly unusual trajectory for hurricanes. Since 1850, there are no records of any Category 2 or greater hurricanes originating from the west and passing within 60 miles of Tampa. Milton’s trajectory will prime it to be a major surge producer.

Surge will be a hazard near and south of the center, but could be an issue along much of Florida’s west coast. Where the southern eyewall makes landfall, a surge of 8 to 12 feet is possible.

Within the eyewall, winds gusting over 100 mph at the coastline are possible. Within a county or two along the coast, gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely. Even far inland, places such as Lakeland and Orlando might see gusts of 75 mph — maybe more. That will result in widespread power outages. Based on current modeling, winds of 70 mph might reach all the way south to Lake Okeechobee.

Heavy rains are ongoing across South Florida now due to the moisture preceding Milton’s arrival. That moisture is pooling along a stalled front. Milton itself will bring a widespread 6 to 8 inches of rain, with localized 12-inch totals, across central and north central Florida. Some inland flooding is possible.

When and where will landfall probably occur?

When will conditions deteriorate and become dangerous?

The most likely landfall location is between New Port Richey, about 40 miles north of Tampa Bay, and North Port or Cape Coral, Fla., just to the north of Fort Myers, but shifts in the track are possible. It’s important to remember that hurricane impacts reach far beyond the center. The most dangerous conditions from wind and surge will be found near and just south of where the center crosses the coast.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday. Heavy rains will become more widespread, but the worst of the winds will probably hold off until Wednesday. Especially by midday Wednesday, an abrupt uptick in destructive winds is probable near where the storm comes ashore. The worst winds will come only two or three hours before Milton’s landfall and will arrive abruptly.

How large and intense will the storm be at landfall?

Milton is a small storm. Hurricane-force winds only reach outward some 30 miles from the center. Small, compact storms are more sensitive to fluctuations in strength, which is why Milton has been able to strengthen so fast.

The storm will be expanding as it interacts with nontropical weather systems and begins to feel the effects of the mid-latitude jet stream. Even though maximum winds will come down Tuesday night and Wednesday, the area affected by hurricane-force winds may triple. That will increase the area susceptible to downed trees, wires and power outages.

Uncertainty is unusually high with regard to Milton’s landfall strength. Even if the storm weakens to a Category 3, as predicted by the Hurricane Center, it will be coming down from a Category 5. And if weakening is more gradual than expected, a storm stronger than a Category 3 can’t be ruled out.

Dry air near the coast of Florida could also weaken the storm more than models suggest, but that is a low likelihood.

Could areas affected by Helene be hit again?

Computer models forecast Milton to generally to follow a course farther south than Helene, which should spare the Southern Appalachians from serious impacts. Little or no rain or wind from the storm should reach the western Carolinas.

However, Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Helene, including parts of the Big Bend and much of the west coast.

The potential storm surge generated by Milton in the Tampa Bay Area could be twice as large as Helene’s. However, this worst-case surge scenario could be avoided if the storm veers to the south or north.

If Milton makes landfall north of Tampa Bay, it could mean another blow for the Big Bend area while also producing some heavy rain and strong winds in southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, which were affected by Helene. However, Milton’s effects on Georgia will probably be less severe than Helene’s.

Today's Belle

The Biden plan for things like Rural Broadband, and Green Energy in 23 states is nearly as ambitious as FDR's REA back in the 30s.

So we've got it started, and it's a pretty good start, but it's just a start. Getting us fully transitioned away from dirty fuels, as soon as we can possibly do it, is the only thing that keeps us from the worst of the effects of Climate Change.

Based on the annual report from NOAA’s Global Monitoring Lab, global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 419.3 parts per million (“ppm” for short) in 2023, setting a new record high. The increase between 2022 and 2023 was 2.8 ppm—the 12th year in a row where the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by more than 2 ppm. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the modern carbon dioxide record began in 1958, the annual average carbon dioxide in 2023 was 421.08.

The Weather

Welcome to the coolest summer you will ever experience for the rest of your life.

U.S. faces prolonged, coast-to-coast heat wave. Here’s a forecast for 12 cities.

The heat will extend through the first week of August, with records possible in both the East and the West.

A new, long-lasting round of punishing heat is in the forecast for much of the Lower 48 states that will extend through the first week of August. Some of the highest temperatures are forecast in the central states, where a heat dome is expanding and intensifying.
More than 45 million people in parts of 18 states are under heat advisories Tuesday. An additional 16 million or so in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley are under an excessive-heat warning for even higher temperatures. In these areas, heat indexes — a measure of how hot it feels, factoring in humidity — are forecast to surpass 110 degrees through midweek.

By late in the workweek, parts of both the eastern and western United States could experience record-warm afternoon highs and overnight lows.

The National Weather Service forecasts at least moderate to major HeatRisk levels for most of the country over the next week. But patchy areas in two dozen states — mainly in the central and southeastern United States — could see the HeatRisk reach the top-tier “extreme” level.
“The multiday duration of this heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the general public,” the Weather Service warned. Only the high mountains and perhaps portions of the Upper Midwest will escape it.

Washington and Baltimore
After Tuesday, it’s day after day of temperatures deep into the 90s. By Thursday and Friday, the combination of heat and humidity make it feel like 105.
Tuesday — 89 high
Wednesday — 75 low / 96 high
Thursday — 77 low / 97 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — 90s for highs

Atlanta
“Hotlanta” will be feeling the part. A pop-up thunderstorm may offer brief relief amid days of mid-90s or higher. Heat indexes rise to around 105 at times.
Tuesday — 92 high
Wednesday — 73 low / 95 high
Thursday — 75 low / 96 high
Friday — 76 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low 90s for highs

Orlando
Orlando simmers through the week with temperatures several degrees above the norm. Heat indexes rise to near 105 as afternoon temperatures regularly reach the mid-90s.
Tuesday — 94 high
Wednesday — 77 low / 94 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 77 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs

Nashville — Heat advisory
Heat indexes are set to approach 110 on Tuesday and could be a bit higher after that. Any rainfall will be scant, with high pressure in control.
Tuesday — 97 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 97 high
Thursday — 79 low / 98 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs

Baton Rouge — Heat advisory
Factoring in humidity, it will feel as hot as 110-plus Tuesday throughout southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The following days should be similar.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 95 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 78 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs

Tulsa — Excessive-heat warning
Near the heart of the hottest air, highs in the 100s, along with high humidity, will make it feel as hot as 115 for multiple days. Little relief is anticipated at night.
Tuesday — 100 high
Wednesday — 82 low / 101 high
Thursday — 80 low / 103 high
Friday — 79 low / 101 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs

Dallas — Heat advisory
Underneath the heat dome, it’s hot and sunny for the near future throughout north Texas. This area is primed to pile up the 100-degree days ahead.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 79 low / 100 high
Thursday — 79 low / 101 high
Friday — 78 low / 102 high
Weekend — Low 100s for highs

Denver — Heat advisory
Hot and hazy conditions rule the week. Compared to cities farther east, overnight lows are relatively comfortable, but Denver has seen three days at or above 100 this year, with more possible.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 63 low / 96 high
Thursday — 61 low / 97 high
Friday — 65 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs

Salt Lake City
Wildfire smoke wafts overheard as high pressure builds through the week. Temperatures are forecast to run upward of 10 degrees above normal for several days.
Tuesday — 93 high
Wednesday — 65 low / 92 high
Thursday — 67 low / 97 high
Friday — 71 low / 99 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs

Phoenix
Monday made it 64 days in a row of 100 or higher in Phoenix. The city seems destined to challenge the record-long run of 76 days in 1993. A chance of late-day storms creeps in late in the week, but powerful high pressure anchored nearby keeps activity isolated.
Tuesday — 110 high
Wednesday — 90 low / 111 high
Thursday — 89 low / 108 high
Friday — 90 low / 111 high
Weekend — 110 to 115 for highs

Boise, Idaho — Excessive heat watch
The Snake River Plain is in for more scorching. Boise has already hit at least 100 on 16 days, which is the most on record to date. More 100s lie ahead.
Tuesday — 86 high
Wednesday — 62 low / 94 high
Thursday — 66 low / 101 high
Friday — 70 low / 106 high
Weekend — 100 to 105 for highs

Fresno
Another epicenter of persistent high heat this summer, the Central Valley of California is about to face its next round, with no real end in sight. This will help fuel fires burning in the region.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 67 low / 98 high
Thursday — 70 low / 102 high
Friday — 74 low / 99 high
Weekend — Around 105 for highs

Today's Quote

Assuming there's someone around to write that history...

Kurt Vonnegut, Jr

We'll go down in history

as the first society

that wouldn't save itself

because it wasn't

cost-effective.