Sea level rise is accelerating.
In the next 30 years, it's likely to go up another 12 inches.
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Oct 11, 2024
Oct 9, 2024
A Little Science
Hurricanes are fueled by warm water. Warmer ocean water means more powerful storms, that don't dissipate as much or as quickly once they make landfall, plus they move slower, plus they can pick up even more water from a warmer atmosphere - so they dump more rain, and wash your ass away.
Hey, MAGA - stop voting for people who're purposefully ignoring the main cause of the storms that are getting you killed, and then cutting off the aid you need to recover.
Oct 7, 2024
Here We Go Again
Hey, MAGA - instead of swallowing a buncha stupid bullshit about "bad gubmint stealin' muh money to pay for illegal immigrants" (or whatever fucked up lies you're buying into today), maybe you could try looking to the coin-operated politicians you've been voting for.
Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 strength on approach to Florida
The storm is expected to produce a devasting surge along Florida’s west coast, which could include the Tampa Bay area. Some decrease in strength is forecast ahead of landfall.
Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.
Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday.
Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached extreme levels — its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.
The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The explosive development has occurred over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to human-caused climate change.
Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate.
Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm — despite some weakening — is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.
Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet — including in Tampa Bay.
Depending on Milton’s exact track, Tampa could find itself in the most dangerous part of the hurricane. The vulnerable coastal city could suffer billions of dollars in damage in a worst-case-scenario track, which is a possible outcome. Some neighborhoods would be entirely inundated and inaccessible. Ongoing evacuations are expected to be the most expansive in Florida since Hurricane Irma struck in 2017.
It’s important to note that subtle shifts of only 5 to 10 miles in track will have an enormous bearing on surge outcomes. While it’s impossible to outline exactly who will see the worst surge at this point, a devastating surge is virtually a certainty somewhere along Florida’s west coast.
A storm surge watch is in effect from the southern tip of the Everglades to the mouth of the Suwanee River in the Big Bend. That includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor — the latter a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in late September 2022.
In addition, Milton will bring destructive winds — perhaps gusting over 100 mph at the coastline — as well as flooding rains and the risk of a few tornadoes. Hurricane watches span the southern part of Florida’s Big Bend, ravaged by Helene less than two weeks ago, to just south of Marco Island.
Tropical alerts for Hurricane Milton.
Widespread power outages are probable in Florida’s interior and even as far away as the state’s east coast and could affect cities such as Orlando and Daytona Beach — in addition to Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota.
Late Monday morning, the storm was centered about 130 miles west-northwest of the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and 720 miles southwest of Tampa, headed to the east-southeast at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn to the northeast Tuesday.
On satellite, the storm also exhibited an ominous “enveloped eyewall lightning” signature. Hurricanes only produce lightning when they’re strengthening, usually quickly. The entire eyewall, or innermost ring of ferocious winds, has been sparking hundreds of lightning strikes — a portent of a top-tier storm. The Hurricane Hunters even encountered hail when entering the eyewall from the northwest.
Milton is expected to affect some of the same areas that experienced a destructive surge from Helene, representing a major setback for recovery efforts. Parts of Florida’s west coast already saw a 5- to 7-foot storm surge and are in the process of removing debris and sand left over from Helene.
What are the areas most threatened by this storm?
The Tampa Bay to Fort Myers corridor is at greatest risk from the storm. Milton will be arriving from the west, a highly unusual trajectory for hurricanes. Since 1850, there are no records of any Category 2 or greater hurricanes originating from the west and passing within 60 miles of Tampa. Milton’s trajectory will prime it to be a major surge producer.
Surge will be a hazard near and south of the center, but could be an issue along much of Florida’s west coast. Where the southern eyewall makes landfall, a surge of 8 to 12 feet is possible.
Within the eyewall, winds gusting over 100 mph at the coastline are possible. Within a county or two along the coast, gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely. Even far inland, places such as Lakeland and Orlando might see gusts of 75 mph — maybe more. That will result in widespread power outages. Based on current modeling, winds of 70 mph might reach all the way south to Lake Okeechobee.
Heavy rains are ongoing across South Florida now due to the moisture preceding Milton’s arrival. That moisture is pooling along a stalled front. Milton itself will bring a widespread 6 to 8 inches of rain, with localized 12-inch totals, across central and north central Florida. Some inland flooding is possible.
When and where will landfall probably occur?
The most likely landfall location is between New Port Richey, about 40 miles north of Tampa Bay, and North Port or Cape Coral, Fla., just to the north of Fort Myers, but shifts in the track are possible. It’s important to remember that hurricane impacts reach far beyond the center. The most dangerous conditions from wind and surge will be found near and just south of where the center crosses the coast.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday. Heavy rains will become more widespread, but the worst of the winds will probably hold off until Wednesday. Especially by midday Wednesday, an abrupt uptick in destructive winds is probable near where the storm comes ashore. The worst winds will come only two or three hours before Milton’s landfall and will arrive abruptly.
How large and intense will the storm be at landfall?
Milton is a small storm. Hurricane-force winds only reach outward some 30 miles from the center. Small, compact storms are more sensitive to fluctuations in strength, which is why Milton has been able to strengthen so fast.
The storm will be expanding as it interacts with nontropical weather systems and begins to feel the effects of the mid-latitude jet stream. Even though maximum winds will come down Tuesday night and Wednesday, the area affected by hurricane-force winds may triple. That will increase the area susceptible to downed trees, wires and power outages.
Uncertainty is unusually high with regard to Milton’s landfall strength. Even if the storm weakens to a Category 3, as predicted by the Hurricane Center, it will be coming down from a Category 5. And if weakening is more gradual than expected, a storm stronger than a Category 3 can’t be ruled out.
Dry air near the coast of Florida could also weaken the storm more than models suggest, but that is a low likelihood.
Could areas affected by Helene be hit again?
Computer models forecast Milton to generally to follow a course farther south than Helene, which should spare the Southern Appalachians from serious impacts. Little or no rain or wind from the storm should reach the western Carolinas.
However, Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Helene, including parts of the Big Bend and much of the west coast.
The potential storm surge generated by Milton in the Tampa Bay Area could be twice as large as Helene’s. However, this worst-case surge scenario could be avoided if the storm veers to the south or north.
If Milton makes landfall north of Tampa Bay, it could mean another blow for the Big Bend area while also producing some heavy rain and strong winds in southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, which were affected by Helene. However, Milton’s effects on Georgia will probably be less severe than Helene’s.
a) They don't give a fuck about you, and...
b) They're the ones stealing from you in order to keep you ignorant, poor, and feeling grateful they don't fuck you over even more than they already have by lying to you about Climate Change
What's happening now is exactly what the science guys have been telling us would happen, you stupid fucking rubes.
And now, here comes another'n.
And I've already seen at least one fantasy tweet about how something must be up with that whole "weather weapons" thing cuz no hurricane has ever just appeared outa nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico like that, and blah blah blah.
Sweet screamin' Jesus - you have to try to get your heads out of your asses. Please.
The storm is expected to produce a devasting surge along Florida’s west coast, which could include the Tampa Bay area. Some decrease in strength is forecast ahead of landfall.
Milton, a top-tier Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying at breakneck speed as it churns toward the west coast of Florida. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday or early Thursday as a “large and powerful hurricane,” according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to produce a potentially devastating ocean surge over 10 feet in some areas, including perhaps in flood-prone Tampa Bay.
Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday.
Since Sunday night, the storm’s rate of strengthening has reached extreme levels — its intensity leaping from a Category 1 to 5. The storm’s peak winds Monday midday were up to 160 mph, a 70 mph increase in 12 hours.
The Hurricane Center described the storm’s rate of intensification as “remarkable.” The explosive development has occurred over record-warm waters in the Gulf, with the extreme warmth linked to human-caused climate change.
Milton is the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Michael in 2018 and is poised to become even stronger until a very gradual weakening trend commences Tuesday. It is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the year since at least 1966. Milton is one of only seven hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate.
Only 48 to 60 hours remain before Milton is set to arrive in Florida. Landfall now looks to be Wednesday afternoon or evening, and the storm — despite some weakening — is anticipated to remain a major hurricane with winds around 120 mph when it strikes the state’s west coast.
Moreover, Milton’s wind field will expand, meaning the storm will more efficiently be able to pile water against the coastline. The National Hurricane Center is warning of a surge of 5 to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida’s peninsula, with locally up to 8 to 12 feet — including in Tampa Bay.
Depending on Milton’s exact track, Tampa could find itself in the most dangerous part of the hurricane. The vulnerable coastal city could suffer billions of dollars in damage in a worst-case-scenario track, which is a possible outcome. Some neighborhoods would be entirely inundated and inaccessible. Ongoing evacuations are expected to be the most expansive in Florida since Hurricane Irma struck in 2017.
It’s important to note that subtle shifts of only 5 to 10 miles in track will have an enormous bearing on surge outcomes. While it’s impossible to outline exactly who will see the worst surge at this point, a devastating surge is virtually a certainty somewhere along Florida’s west coast.
A storm surge watch is in effect from the southern tip of the Everglades to the mouth of the Suwanee River in the Big Bend. That includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor — the latter a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Ian in late September 2022.
In addition, Milton will bring destructive winds — perhaps gusting over 100 mph at the coastline — as well as flooding rains and the risk of a few tornadoes. Hurricane watches span the southern part of Florida’s Big Bend, ravaged by Helene less than two weeks ago, to just south of Marco Island.
Tropical alerts for Hurricane Milton.
Widespread power outages are probable in Florida’s interior and even as far away as the state’s east coast and could affect cities such as Orlando and Daytona Beach — in addition to Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota.
Late Monday morning, the storm was centered about 130 miles west-northwest of the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and 720 miles southwest of Tampa, headed to the east-southeast at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a turn to the northeast Tuesday.
On satellite, the storm also exhibited an ominous “enveloped eyewall lightning” signature. Hurricanes only produce lightning when they’re strengthening, usually quickly. The entire eyewall, or innermost ring of ferocious winds, has been sparking hundreds of lightning strikes — a portent of a top-tier storm. The Hurricane Hunters even encountered hail when entering the eyewall from the northwest.
Milton is expected to affect some of the same areas that experienced a destructive surge from Helene, representing a major setback for recovery efforts. Parts of Florida’s west coast already saw a 5- to 7-foot storm surge and are in the process of removing debris and sand left over from Helene.
What are the areas most threatened by this storm?
The Tampa Bay to Fort Myers corridor is at greatest risk from the storm. Milton will be arriving from the west, a highly unusual trajectory for hurricanes. Since 1850, there are no records of any Category 2 or greater hurricanes originating from the west and passing within 60 miles of Tampa. Milton’s trajectory will prime it to be a major surge producer.
Surge will be a hazard near and south of the center, but could be an issue along much of Florida’s west coast. Where the southern eyewall makes landfall, a surge of 8 to 12 feet is possible.
Within the eyewall, winds gusting over 100 mph at the coastline are possible. Within a county or two along the coast, gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely. Even far inland, places such as Lakeland and Orlando might see gusts of 75 mph — maybe more. That will result in widespread power outages. Based on current modeling, winds of 70 mph might reach all the way south to Lake Okeechobee.
Heavy rains are ongoing across South Florida now due to the moisture preceding Milton’s arrival. That moisture is pooling along a stalled front. Milton itself will bring a widespread 6 to 8 inches of rain, with localized 12-inch totals, across central and north central Florida. Some inland flooding is possible.
When and where will landfall probably occur?
When will conditions deteriorate and become dangerous?
The most likely landfall location is between New Port Richey, about 40 miles north of Tampa Bay, and North Port or Cape Coral, Fla., just to the north of Fort Myers, but shifts in the track are possible. It’s important to remember that hurricane impacts reach far beyond the center. The most dangerous conditions from wind and surge will be found near and just south of where the center crosses the coast.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday. Heavy rains will become more widespread, but the worst of the winds will probably hold off until Wednesday. Especially by midday Wednesday, an abrupt uptick in destructive winds is probable near where the storm comes ashore. The worst winds will come only two or three hours before Milton’s landfall and will arrive abruptly.
How large and intense will the storm be at landfall?
Milton is a small storm. Hurricane-force winds only reach outward some 30 miles from the center. Small, compact storms are more sensitive to fluctuations in strength, which is why Milton has been able to strengthen so fast.
The storm will be expanding as it interacts with nontropical weather systems and begins to feel the effects of the mid-latitude jet stream. Even though maximum winds will come down Tuesday night and Wednesday, the area affected by hurricane-force winds may triple. That will increase the area susceptible to downed trees, wires and power outages.
Uncertainty is unusually high with regard to Milton’s landfall strength. Even if the storm weakens to a Category 3, as predicted by the Hurricane Center, it will be coming down from a Category 5. And if weakening is more gradual than expected, a storm stronger than a Category 3 can’t be ruled out.
Dry air near the coast of Florida could also weaken the storm more than models suggest, but that is a low likelihood.
Could areas affected by Helene be hit again?
Computer models forecast Milton to generally to follow a course farther south than Helene, which should spare the Southern Appalachians from serious impacts. Little or no rain or wind from the storm should reach the western Carolinas.
However, Milton could seriously affect some parts of Florida that are still recovering from Helene, including parts of the Big Bend and much of the west coast.
The potential storm surge generated by Milton in the Tampa Bay Area could be twice as large as Helene’s. However, this worst-case surge scenario could be avoided if the storm veers to the south or north.
If Milton makes landfall north of Tampa Bay, it could mean another blow for the Big Bend area while also producing some heavy rain and strong winds in southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas, which were affected by Helene. However, Milton’s effects on Georgia will probably be less severe than Helene’s.
Sep 8, 2024
Today's Belle
The Biden plan for things like Rural Broadband, and Green Energy in 23 states is nearly as ambitious as FDR's REA back in the 30s.
So we've got it started, and it's a pretty good start, but it's just a start. Getting us fully transitioned away from dirty fuels, as soon as we can possibly do it, is the only thing that keeps us from the worst of the effects of Climate Change.
Based on the annual report from NOAA’s Global Monitoring Lab, global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 419.3 parts per million (“ppm” for short) in 2023, setting a new record high. The increase between 2022 and 2023 was 2.8 ppm—the 12th year in a row where the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by more than 2 ppm. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the modern carbon dioxide record began in 1958, the annual average carbon dioxide in 2023 was 421.08.
Jul 31, 2024
The Weather
Welcome to the coolest summer you will ever experience for the rest of your life.
U.S. faces prolonged, coast-to-coast heat wave. Here’s a forecast for 12 cities.
The heat will extend through the first week of August, with records possible in both the East and the West.
A new, long-lasting round of punishing heat is in the forecast for much of the Lower 48 states that will extend through the first week of August. Some of the highest temperatures are forecast in the central states, where a heat dome is expanding and intensifying.
More than 45 million people in parts of 18 states are under heat advisories Tuesday. An additional 16 million or so in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley are under an excessive-heat warning for even higher temperatures. In these areas, heat indexes — a measure of how hot it feels, factoring in humidity — are forecast to surpass 110 degrees through midweek.
By late in the workweek, parts of both the eastern and western United States could experience record-warm afternoon highs and overnight lows.
The National Weather Service forecasts at least moderate to major HeatRisk levels for most of the country over the next week. But patchy areas in two dozen states — mainly in the central and southeastern United States — could see the HeatRisk reach the top-tier “extreme” level.
“The multiday duration of this heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the general public,” the Weather Service warned. Only the high mountains and perhaps portions of the Upper Midwest will escape it.
Washington and Baltimore
After Tuesday, it’s day after day of temperatures deep into the 90s. By Thursday and Friday, the combination of heat and humidity make it feel like 105.
Tuesday — 89 high
Wednesday — 75 low / 96 high
Thursday — 77 low / 97 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — 90s for highs
Atlanta
“Hotlanta” will be feeling the part. A pop-up thunderstorm may offer brief relief amid days of mid-90s or higher. Heat indexes rise to around 105 at times.
Tuesday — 92 high
Wednesday — 73 low / 95 high
Thursday — 75 low / 96 high
Friday — 76 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low 90s for highs
Orlando
Orlando simmers through the week with temperatures several degrees above the norm. Heat indexes rise to near 105 as afternoon temperatures regularly reach the mid-90s.
Tuesday — 94 high
Wednesday — 77 low / 94 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 77 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs
Nashville — Heat advisory
Heat indexes are set to approach 110 on Tuesday and could be a bit higher after that. Any rainfall will be scant, with high pressure in control.
Tuesday — 97 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 97 high
Thursday — 79 low / 98 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs
Baton Rouge — Heat advisory
Factoring in humidity, it will feel as hot as 110-plus Tuesday throughout southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The following days should be similar.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 95 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 78 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs
Tulsa — Excessive-heat warning
Near the heart of the hottest air, highs in the 100s, along with high humidity, will make it feel as hot as 115 for multiple days. Little relief is anticipated at night.
Tuesday — 100 high
Wednesday — 82 low / 101 high
Thursday — 80 low / 103 high
Friday — 79 low / 101 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs
Dallas — Heat advisory
Underneath the heat dome, it’s hot and sunny for the near future throughout north Texas. This area is primed to pile up the 100-degree days ahead.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 79 low / 100 high
Thursday — 79 low / 101 high
Friday — 78 low / 102 high
Weekend — Low 100s for highs
Denver — Heat advisory
Hot and hazy conditions rule the week. Compared to cities farther east, overnight lows are relatively comfortable, but Denver has seen three days at or above 100 this year, with more possible.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 63 low / 96 high
Thursday — 61 low / 97 high
Friday — 65 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs
Salt Lake City
Wildfire smoke wafts overheard as high pressure builds through the week. Temperatures are forecast to run upward of 10 degrees above normal for several days.
Tuesday — 93 high
Wednesday — 65 low / 92 high
Thursday — 67 low / 97 high
Friday — 71 low / 99 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs
Phoenix
Monday made it 64 days in a row of 100 or higher in Phoenix. The city seems destined to challenge the record-long run of 76 days in 1993. A chance of late-day storms creeps in late in the week, but powerful high pressure anchored nearby keeps activity isolated.
Tuesday — 110 high
Wednesday — 90 low / 111 high
Thursday — 89 low / 108 high
Friday — 90 low / 111 high
Weekend — 110 to 115 for highs
Boise, Idaho — Excessive heat watch
The Snake River Plain is in for more scorching. Boise has already hit at least 100 on 16 days, which is the most on record to date. More 100s lie ahead.
Tuesday — 86 high
Wednesday — 62 low / 94 high
Thursday — 66 low / 101 high
Friday — 70 low / 106 high
Weekend — 100 to 105 for highs
Fresno
Another epicenter of persistent high heat this summer, the Central Valley of California is about to face its next round, with no real end in sight. This will help fuel fires burning in the region.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 67 low / 98 high
Thursday — 70 low / 102 high
Friday — 74 low / 99 high
Weekend — Around 105 for highs
The heat will extend through the first week of August, with records possible in both the East and the West.
A new, long-lasting round of punishing heat is in the forecast for much of the Lower 48 states that will extend through the first week of August. Some of the highest temperatures are forecast in the central states, where a heat dome is expanding and intensifying.
More than 45 million people in parts of 18 states are under heat advisories Tuesday. An additional 16 million or so in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley are under an excessive-heat warning for even higher temperatures. In these areas, heat indexes — a measure of how hot it feels, factoring in humidity — are forecast to surpass 110 degrees through midweek.
By late in the workweek, parts of both the eastern and western United States could experience record-warm afternoon highs and overnight lows.
The National Weather Service forecasts at least moderate to major HeatRisk levels for most of the country over the next week. But patchy areas in two dozen states — mainly in the central and southeastern United States — could see the HeatRisk reach the top-tier “extreme” level.
“The multiday duration of this heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the general public,” the Weather Service warned. Only the high mountains and perhaps portions of the Upper Midwest will escape it.
After Tuesday, it’s day after day of temperatures deep into the 90s. By Thursday and Friday, the combination of heat and humidity make it feel like 105.
Tuesday — 89 high
Wednesday — 75 low / 96 high
Thursday — 77 low / 97 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — 90s for highs
Atlanta
“Hotlanta” will be feeling the part. A pop-up thunderstorm may offer brief relief amid days of mid-90s or higher. Heat indexes rise to around 105 at times.
Tuesday — 92 high
Wednesday — 73 low / 95 high
Thursday — 75 low / 96 high
Friday — 76 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low 90s for highs
Orlando
Orlando simmers through the week with temperatures several degrees above the norm. Heat indexes rise to near 105 as afternoon temperatures regularly reach the mid-90s.
Tuesday — 94 high
Wednesday — 77 low / 94 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 77 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs
Nashville — Heat advisory
Heat indexes are set to approach 110 on Tuesday and could be a bit higher after that. Any rainfall will be scant, with high pressure in control.
Tuesday — 97 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 97 high
Thursday — 79 low / 98 high
Friday — 78 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs
Baton Rouge — Heat advisory
Factoring in humidity, it will feel as hot as 110-plus Tuesday throughout southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The following days should be similar.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 78 low / 95 high
Thursday — 77 low / 95 high
Friday — 78 low / 95 high
Weekend — Mid-90s for highs
Tulsa — Excessive-heat warning
Near the heart of the hottest air, highs in the 100s, along with high humidity, will make it feel as hot as 115 for multiple days. Little relief is anticipated at night.
Tuesday — 100 high
Wednesday — 82 low / 101 high
Thursday — 80 low / 103 high
Friday — 79 low / 101 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs
Dallas — Heat advisory
Underneath the heat dome, it’s hot and sunny for the near future throughout north Texas. This area is primed to pile up the 100-degree days ahead.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 79 low / 100 high
Thursday — 79 low / 101 high
Friday — 78 low / 102 high
Weekend — Low 100s for highs
Denver — Heat advisory
Hot and hazy conditions rule the week. Compared to cities farther east, overnight lows are relatively comfortable, but Denver has seen three days at or above 100 this year, with more possible.
Tuesday — 99 high
Wednesday — 63 low / 96 high
Thursday — 61 low / 97 high
Friday — 65 low / 96 high
Weekend — Low to mid-90s for highs
Salt Lake City
Wildfire smoke wafts overheard as high pressure builds through the week. Temperatures are forecast to run upward of 10 degrees above normal for several days.
Tuesday — 93 high
Wednesday — 65 low / 92 high
Thursday — 67 low / 97 high
Friday — 71 low / 99 high
Weekend — Near 100 for highs
Phoenix
Monday made it 64 days in a row of 100 or higher in Phoenix. The city seems destined to challenge the record-long run of 76 days in 1993. A chance of late-day storms creeps in late in the week, but powerful high pressure anchored nearby keeps activity isolated.
Tuesday — 110 high
Wednesday — 90 low / 111 high
Thursday — 89 low / 108 high
Friday — 90 low / 111 high
Weekend — 110 to 115 for highs
Boise, Idaho — Excessive heat watch
The Snake River Plain is in for more scorching. Boise has already hit at least 100 on 16 days, which is the most on record to date. More 100s lie ahead.
Tuesday — 86 high
Wednesday — 62 low / 94 high
Thursday — 66 low / 101 high
Friday — 70 low / 106 high
Weekend — 100 to 105 for highs
Fresno
Another epicenter of persistent high heat this summer, the Central Valley of California is about to face its next round, with no real end in sight. This will help fuel fires burning in the region.
Tuesday — 95 high
Wednesday — 67 low / 98 high
Thursday — 70 low / 102 high
Friday — 74 low / 99 high
Weekend — Around 105 for highs
Jul 13, 2024
Today's Quote
Assuming there's someone around to write that history...
 |
| Kurt Vonnegut, Jr |
We'll go down in history
as the first society
that wouldn't save itself
because it wasn't
cost-effective.
Jul 9, 2024
Senator Podcast
Power has started to come back for some of the millions of homes and businesses left in the dark when Hurricane Beryl slammed into the Houston area.
HOUSTON (AP) — Many of the millions left without power when Hurricane Beryl crashed into Texas, killing several people and unleashing flooding, now face days without air conditioning as dangerous heat threatens the region Tuesday.
A heat advisory was in effect through Wednesday in the Houston area and beyond, with temperatures expected to soar into the 90s (above 32.2 Celsius) and humidity that could make it feel as hot as 105 degrees (40.5 Celsius). The widespread loss of power, and therefore air conditioning, could make for dangerous conditions, the National Weather Service said.
More than 2.3 million homes and businesses around Houston lacked electricity Tuesday morning, down from a peak of over 2.7 million on Monday, according to PowerOutage.us.
“Houstonians need to know we’re working around the clock so you will be safe,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said Monday, urging residents to also know the dangers of high water, to stay hydrated and to check on their neighbors.
Beryl has been blamed for at least seven deaths — one in Louisiana and six in Texas, officials said.
The storm weakened after making landfall, and late Tuesday morning it was a post-tropical cyclone centered over northeastern Arkansas, moving northeast with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph (48 kph), the weather service said. Its strength wasn’t expected to change much in the next two days.
The storm is forecast to bring heavy rains and possible flash flooding from the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes into Wednesday, the weather service said.
A flood watch was in effect for parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. A few tornadoes were possible in Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, forecasters said.
Beryl came ashore in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane, far less powerful than the behemoth that tore a deadly path through parts of Mexico and the Caribbean. But its winds and rains still knocked down hundreds of trees that had already been teetering in saturated earth and stranded dozens of cars on flooded roads.
It could take days to fully return power in Texas after Beryl toppled 10 transmission lines. Top priorities for power restoration include nursing homes and assisted living centers, said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who is acting as governor while Gov. Greg Abbott is out of the country.
Powerful storms in the area in May killed eight people, left nearly 1 million without power and flooded streets. Residents now without power after Beryl were doing their best.
“We haven’t really slept,” said Eva Costancio as she gazed at a large tree that had fallen across electric lines in the Houston suburb of Rosenberg. Costancio said she had already been without power for several hours and worried that food in her refrigerator would be spoiled.
“We are struggling to have food, and losing that food would be difficult,” she said.
The state was opening cooling centers, as well as food and water distribution centers, said Nim Kidd, chief of state emergency operations.
Beryl’s rains pounded Houston and other areas of the coast Monday, closing streets that had already been washed out by previous storms. Houston officials reported at least 25 water rescues by Monday afternoon, mostly for people with vehicles stuck in floodwaters.
Many streets and neighborhoods throughout Houston were littered with fallen branches and other debris. The buzz of chainsaws filled the air Monday afternoon as residents chopped up knocked-down trees and branches that had blocked streets and sidewalks. Several companies with refineries or industrial plants reported the power disruptions required the flaring of gases.
The earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, Beryl caused at least 11 deaths as it passed through the Caribbean on its way to Texas. In Jamaica, officials said Monday that island residents will have to contend with food shortages after Beryl destroyed over $6.4 million in crops and supporting infrastructure.
Jun 30, 2024
Just Gettin' Warmed Up
Climate change helped fuel an explosion of dengue cases in the Americas, including Puerto Rico, as mosquitoes multiply in warmer, wetter weather.
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — The curly-haired girl came to the emergency room with fever, aches and signs of dehydration, common indications of many childhood illnesses. But the 9-year-old — pale and listless beneath her Pokémon blanket — looked sicker than most children and exhibited no respiratory symptoms. She could only whimper as a pediatrician stroked her hair and softly questioned her in Spanish.
The sharp-eyed doctor suspected dengue, a disease that is often missed but is now exploding around the world.
The girl, Genesis Polanco Marte, is among a record 10 million people who have fallen ill with dengue so far this year — an unprecedented surge that scientists say is fueled in part by climate change. Soaring global temperatures have accelerated the life cycles and expanded the ranges of the mosquitoes that carry dengue, helping spread the virus to roughly one in every 800 people on the planet in the past six months alone. An influx of patients has overwhelmed hospitals from Brazil to Bangladesh, recalling the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic. Puerto Rico declared a public health emergency this spring, with more dengue cases reported in the first five months of 2024 than all of last year. Public health officials are bracing for the virus to crop up in more temperate regions, including the southernmost portions of the United States.
“The storm’s comin’, folks,” Grayson Brown, executive director of the nonprofit Puerto Rico Vector Control Unit, advised a group of California officials in a recent webinar. “It’s here in Puerto Rico, but you guys are going to feel it pretty soon.”
Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of an increased risk of dengue infections in the United States, urging clinicians to stay on alert for the disease when treating feverish patients who have traveled to places with dengue transmission.
But even as human-made warming spurs cases to historic highs, dengue remains one of the world’s most neglected tropical diseases, according to the World Health Organization. Three out of four cases are mild or asymptomatic, making the illness difficult to track. And because the virus comes in four varieties, or serotypes, natural immunity after one illness does not protect against future infections with other types. What makes dengue unusual is that the risk of severe complications may actually increase with sequential infections of a different type.
There is no cure for the virus, which in severe cases can lead to plasma leaking from veins, internal bleeding, organ failure and, in rare instances, death. Unlike other illnesses, vaccination is complicated. Few options are available, and few people know about them. The only vaccine available in the United States is for children 9 to 16 years old who have already been infected with dengue — those most vulnerable to hospitalization. But it won’t be available after 2026.
The crisis in Puerto Rico is a warning sign for the rest of the United States. It shows how quickly an outbreak can metastasize in communities with fragile infrastructure, underfunded health systems and temperatures that get hotter with each passing year.
Without drastic action to control the virus and slow climate change, research suggests some 2 billion additional people across the globe could be at risk for dengue in the next 50 years.
Rising temperatures spur global dengue spread
Relatives mourn 10-year-old Fer Maria Ancajima, who died of dengue, during the wake at her house in Catacaos district, Peru in June 2023. (Ernesto Benavides/AFP/Getty Images)
It has been more than a decade since Puerto Rico saw its last dengue outbreak. Though the virus is endemic in the territory and typically recurs every five to seven years, that cycle was interrupted by the emergence of Zika — a closely related virus that tore through the island in 2016 and gave some cross protection against dengue — and the isolation measures necessitated by the coronavirus.
But the return of global travel — especially Caribbean cruises — brought thousands of tourists who had been exposed to dengue elsewhere, introducing strains that hadn’t been dominant in Puerto Rico. The virus spread swiftly through the population of susceptible people, reaching Genesis in late May.
The girl had been feverish for several days before she arrived at the hospital. Her doctor, Zurisadai Rivera Acosta, pressed on the girl’s fingertip and saw it took longer than normal for the color beneath to return to pink — a sign of dehydration. More concerning, the doctor noted, she had begun vomiting and her count of blood platelets was low. Rivera admitted the girl to the hospital amid signs her condition was deteriorating. Genesis was one of 91 dengue cases reported in Puerto Rico that week, health department data show.
Puerto Rico public health officials are bracing for case counts to soar as the island heads into the hot and rainy season. By mid-June, the territory had reported more than 1,500 cases. At least two people have died.
Sweltering and stormy is the preferred weather for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that is the main vector for dengue in the Americas. It lays its eggs wherever there is standing water: in vent pipes of septic tanks, water meters, discarded tires and broken flower pots. A single bottle cap filled with rainwater can hold more than 100 eggs, said Sadie Ryan, a medical geographer at the University of Florida who specializes in insect-borne diseases.
“They’re tenacious, they’re pernicious,” Ryan said. “Really, they’re just good at being everywhere.”
Its eating habits further bolster the bug’s ability to wreak havoc. Unlike the mosquitoes that transmit malaria, which require only a single blood meal before laying their eggs, female Aedes aegypti are “sippers,” Ryan said. They behave like tiny vampires at a human buffet, flitting from person to person, potentially spreading disease with each bite.
In Puerto Rico’s crowded urban areas, most families cannot afford air conditioning so they keep cool by opening windows and doors, which lack screens to keep mosquitoes out.
Meanwhile, human-caused warming is spawning an explosion of mosquitoes here.
Greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels, have raised average temperatures in the commonwealth by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950, according to the National Centers for Climate Information.
The change has been a boon to Aedes aegypti, which is able to transmit diseases at higher temperatures than other mosquito species. In laboratory experiments, researchers have found that warmer conditions can make the insect grow faster, bite more people and lay more eggs. Heat also makes the dengue virus more infectious and allows it to replicate faster inside its hosts.
Models and real-world data show that these mosquitoes can transmit dengue at temperatures ranging from 64 to 94.1 degrees Fahrenheit — conditions that are found in Puerto Rico every month of the year.
Though this species is found in several states, including Texas, Florida and even California, the mosquito’s predilection for heat has historically limited dengue’s reach. Even when the virus hitches a ride via travelers from tropical regions, low nighttime and winter temperatures prevent it from spreading very far.
But officials are increasingly concerned that rising temperatures could set the stage for more outbreaks in the United States. Florida has already reported eight cases from local spread this year, health department data show — and the state’s warmest months are yet to come.
“Even one case in an area that doesn’t usually see dengue can consume a large number of resources, as well as create considerable public concern,” said Gabriela Paz-Bailey, chief of the CDC’s dengue branch in Puerto Rico. “It means the mosquito has acquired the virus, and you have the potential for additional transmission happening.”
In tropical regions across Latin America, Africa and Asia, where dengue once circulated primarily during summer months, a lengthening warm season is turning the disease into a year-round phenomenon. Meanwhile, the shifting climate is allowing dengue to infiltrate temperate regions and high-altitude communities where it has never been found before.
Nepal, which hadn’t seen a dengue case before 2004, recorded more than 50,000 cases in each of the last two years. Mauritius and Chad have experienced their first-ever significant outbreaks in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Italy, France and Spain documented dozens of instances of local transmission of the virus in 2023 — suggesting the disease may be gaining a foothold in spots where winter cold once kept it at bay.
But it’s not just rising temperatures that contribute to disease spread, researchers say. Climate-induced droughts can prompt people to stockpile water, creating more mosquito habitat. Escalating hurricanes and floods also produce standing water while simultaneously forcing people from their homes and increasing their exposure to mosquitoes, said Mallory Harris, a disease ecologist at Stanford University.
By combining climate models with simulations of disease spread, Harris is developing techniques that can help link cases to climate disasters — and project how future storms and droughts could trigger new outbreaks. In an analysis of Cyclone Yaku, which ravaged Peru’s northern coast in March 2023, she found that the storm was responsible for 33,000 dengue cases. Nearly 400 people died of the virus.
Only U.S. dengue vaccine runs out in 2026
The fact that the dengue virus comes in multiple serotypes and has an unusual mechanism for causing severe illness in people makes it especially tricky to fight. An infection with one type generates disease-fighting antibodies that protect a person from future infection with that variety. But those same antibodies can bind to viruses of a different serotype, facilitating their entry and causing more severe illness. (WTF? 🤨)
Dengvaxia, developed by the French-based manufacturer Sanofi, is the only vaccine approved for use in the United States. It protects against all four dengue types and is approved for children 9 to 16 years old living in high-risk areas such as Puerto Rico. The shots are covered by most health insurance plans. But the three-dose regimen — administered six months apart over the course of a year to be fully protected — requires patients to have a laboratory-confirmed previous dengue infection. It’s the only vaccine with such a requirement, complicating rollout efforts in vulnerable communities.
In May, WHO expanded the use of a second vaccine, Qdenga, which is already approved in several hard-hit countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia and throughout Europe. The vaccine, developed by the Japanese company Takeda and is recommended by WHO for children ages 6 to 16, requires only two shots and can be used regardless of prior infection. But the company withdrew its application from the Food and Drug Administration in July 2023 because of data collection issues.
A third vaccine being developed by the National Institutes of Health is still in clinical trials and won’t be available in the United States for at least a few years.
Meanwhile, health-care workers in Puerto Rico lament that few residents know about Dengvaxia.
At HealthProMed, Hector Villanueva, the community clinic’s senior adviser for dengue, urged Mayra Rivera to vaccinate her teenage nephews, who Rivera took in this year after their parents died. The boys had been hospitalized with fever, vomiting and diarrhea from the virus in January. Villanueva warned they could become even more severely ill if they were to be infected again.
Rivera eagerly signed them up for shots. The 13-year-old, whose diabetes can make dengue more lethal, received his first dose in April. His older brother is scheduled to receive his shot in July.
But uptake among other children in Puerto Rico has been slow. Many parents aren’t aware of dengue’s dangers and after the pandemic, are tired of hearing about getting more vaccines, Villanueva said.
“Most of the cases, they didn’t know they have dengue or they may have mild to moderate symptoms, so there is low perception of risk,” Villanueva said. “Parents are saying, ‘What are you talking about? Dengue, does that still exist?’”
Only 145 children in Puerto Rico have started the vaccine series since it became available in 2022, according to CDC — a tiny fraction of the roughly 140,000 eligible.
And now access to the vaccine is closing. A few months before Puerto Rico declared its public health emergency in March, Sanofi informed U.S. officials that it has stopped producing Dengvaxia because of low demand. The last doses will expire in August 2026.
Adam Gluck, who leads Sanofi’s U.S. corporate affairs, said the company tried making the vaccine easy to access but the complexity of screening for a prior infection before administering the required three doses kept demand low. The decision to discontinue the vaccine “is not driven by quality, safety or efficacy concerns,” he said in a statement.
Rivera said she is grateful her nephews qualify to receive the shots but is dismayed other children will no longer have the chance to protect themselves against dengue. “If they stop making these vaccines,” she said, “a lot of people will die.”
Combating dengue in Puerto Rico
On a recent steamy morning, a mosquito-control technician from Puerto Rico’s Vector Control Unit peered into a trap outside a home, a plastic bucket filled with water and hay whose odor was designed to attract egg-laying females. Sure enough, when he opened the trap, a mosquito with white markings was stuck on the special adhesive paper.
With schools out for the summer, another group of technicians went from classroom to classroom at a nearby elementary school, trapping mosquitoes to identify locations that could have been super spreaders. Workers thrust vacuum-like machines along walls, in corners, under piles of papers to flush out the insects, then caught their quarry in butterfly nets.
Unlike many mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti tend to bite during the day and are resistant to the most commonly used insecticide. So officials must focus on identifying and destroying mosquito habitats in high-transmission areas to reduce spread.
Teams rely on low-tech traps placed outside homes to collect mosquitoes, then test them to determine what percentage carry the virus. In areas with high rates of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, field teams apply larvicide and go door-to-door urging residents to use repellent and get rid of breeding grounds, authorities said.
The ongoing explosion of cases presages a future in which dengue becomes one of the dominant mosquito-borne threats to humanity, experts said, in some countries even eclipsing malaria. As temperatures in tropical regions get too hot for other mosquito species, Aedes aegypti is poised to take over.
Singapore, Brazil and Colombia have programs to infect mosquitoes with a bacteria called Wolbachia, which blocks offspring released into the wild from transmitting the dengue virus. But that expensive and labor-intensive strategy has not been approved in the United States.
In Puerto Rico, one big challenge remains awareness among clinicians, who seldom treat the disease. The CDC and Puerto Rico health department are training doctors to monitor for warning signs of severe dengue, including abdominal pain, persistent vomiting and bleeding from the gums or nose. Unlike other diseases, where fever reduction is often a sign someone is getting better, the reverse is true for dengue.
Rivera, the emergency room pediatrician who recently treated 9-year-old Genesis, said she recognized the dengue symptoms in the young patient only because her own aunt and cousin had contracted dengue during the coronavirus pandemic. When Rivera rushed them to a hospital, doctors insisted the two had covid, not dengue. Her aunt almost died, Rivera said.
“There’s no rapid test for dengue,” Rivera said. “We have to diagnose it clinically.”
Genesis received intravenous fluids in the hospital, and her platelet count gradually trended up. Three days later, she was allowed to go home. Despite her recovery, the girl remains vulnerable to a second infection.
The mosquitoes are out here, waiting to bite.
The change has been a boon to Aedes aegypti, which is able to transmit diseases at higher temperatures than other mosquito species. In laboratory experiments, researchers have found that warmer conditions can make the insect grow faster, bite more people and lay more eggs. Heat also makes the dengue virus more infectious and allows it to replicate faster inside its hosts.
Models and real-world data show that these mosquitoes can transmit dengue at temperatures ranging from 64 to 94.1 degrees Fahrenheit — conditions that are found in Puerto Rico every month of the year.
Though this species is found in several states, including Texas, Florida and even California, the mosquito’s predilection for heat has historically limited dengue’s reach. Even when the virus hitches a ride via travelers from tropical regions, low nighttime and winter temperatures prevent it from spreading very far.
But officials are increasingly concerned that rising temperatures could set the stage for more outbreaks in the United States. Florida has already reported eight cases from local spread this year, health department data show — and the state’s warmest months are yet to come.
“Even one case in an area that doesn’t usually see dengue can consume a large number of resources, as well as create considerable public concern,” said Gabriela Paz-Bailey, chief of the CDC’s dengue branch in Puerto Rico. “It means the mosquito has acquired the virus, and you have the potential for additional transmission happening.”
In tropical regions across Latin America, Africa and Asia, where dengue once circulated primarily during summer months, a lengthening warm season is turning the disease into a year-round phenomenon. Meanwhile, the shifting climate is allowing dengue to infiltrate temperate regions and high-altitude communities where it has never been found before.
Nepal, which hadn’t seen a dengue case before 2004, recorded more than 50,000 cases in each of the last two years. Mauritius and Chad have experienced their first-ever significant outbreaks in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Italy, France and Spain documented dozens of instances of local transmission of the virus in 2023 — suggesting the disease may be gaining a foothold in spots where winter cold once kept it at bay.
But it’s not just rising temperatures that contribute to disease spread, researchers say. Climate-induced droughts can prompt people to stockpile water, creating more mosquito habitat. Escalating hurricanes and floods also produce standing water while simultaneously forcing people from their homes and increasing their exposure to mosquitoes, said Mallory Harris, a disease ecologist at Stanford University.
By combining climate models with simulations of disease spread, Harris is developing techniques that can help link cases to climate disasters — and project how future storms and droughts could trigger new outbreaks. In an analysis of Cyclone Yaku, which ravaged Peru’s northern coast in March 2023, she found that the storm was responsible for 33,000 dengue cases. Nearly 400 people died of the virus.
Only U.S. dengue vaccine runs out in 2026
The fact that the dengue virus comes in multiple serotypes and has an unusual mechanism for causing severe illness in people makes it especially tricky to fight. An infection with one type generates disease-fighting antibodies that protect a person from future infection with that variety. But those same antibodies can bind to viruses of a different serotype, facilitating their entry and causing more severe illness. (WTF? 🤨)
Dengvaxia, developed by the French-based manufacturer Sanofi, is the only vaccine approved for use in the United States. It protects against all four dengue types and is approved for children 9 to 16 years old living in high-risk areas such as Puerto Rico. The shots are covered by most health insurance plans. But the three-dose regimen — administered six months apart over the course of a year to be fully protected — requires patients to have a laboratory-confirmed previous dengue infection. It’s the only vaccine with such a requirement, complicating rollout efforts in vulnerable communities.
In May, WHO expanded the use of a second vaccine, Qdenga, which is already approved in several hard-hit countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia and throughout Europe. The vaccine, developed by the Japanese company Takeda and is recommended by WHO for children ages 6 to 16, requires only two shots and can be used regardless of prior infection. But the company withdrew its application from the Food and Drug Administration in July 2023 because of data collection issues.
A third vaccine being developed by the National Institutes of Health is still in clinical trials and won’t be available in the United States for at least a few years.
Meanwhile, health-care workers in Puerto Rico lament that few residents know about Dengvaxia.
At HealthProMed, Hector Villanueva, the community clinic’s senior adviser for dengue, urged Mayra Rivera to vaccinate her teenage nephews, who Rivera took in this year after their parents died. The boys had been hospitalized with fever, vomiting and diarrhea from the virus in January. Villanueva warned they could become even more severely ill if they were to be infected again.
Rivera eagerly signed them up for shots. The 13-year-old, whose diabetes can make dengue more lethal, received his first dose in April. His older brother is scheduled to receive his shot in July.
But uptake among other children in Puerto Rico has been slow. Many parents aren’t aware of dengue’s dangers and after the pandemic, are tired of hearing about getting more vaccines, Villanueva said.
“Most of the cases, they didn’t know they have dengue or they may have mild to moderate symptoms, so there is low perception of risk,” Villanueva said. “Parents are saying, ‘What are you talking about? Dengue, does that still exist?’”
Only 145 children in Puerto Rico have started the vaccine series since it became available in 2022, according to CDC — a tiny fraction of the roughly 140,000 eligible.
And now access to the vaccine is closing. A few months before Puerto Rico declared its public health emergency in March, Sanofi informed U.S. officials that it has stopped producing Dengvaxia because of low demand. The last doses will expire in August 2026.
Adam Gluck, who leads Sanofi’s U.S. corporate affairs, said the company tried making the vaccine easy to access but the complexity of screening for a prior infection before administering the required three doses kept demand low. The decision to discontinue the vaccine “is not driven by quality, safety or efficacy concerns,” he said in a statement.
Rivera said she is grateful her nephews qualify to receive the shots but is dismayed other children will no longer have the chance to protect themselves against dengue. “If they stop making these vaccines,” she said, “a lot of people will die.”
Combating dengue in Puerto Rico
On a recent steamy morning, a mosquito-control technician from Puerto Rico’s Vector Control Unit peered into a trap outside a home, a plastic bucket filled with water and hay whose odor was designed to attract egg-laying females. Sure enough, when he opened the trap, a mosquito with white markings was stuck on the special adhesive paper.
With schools out for the summer, another group of technicians went from classroom to classroom at a nearby elementary school, trapping mosquitoes to identify locations that could have been super spreaders. Workers thrust vacuum-like machines along walls, in corners, under piles of papers to flush out the insects, then caught their quarry in butterfly nets.
Unlike many mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti tend to bite during the day and are resistant to the most commonly used insecticide. So officials must focus on identifying and destroying mosquito habitats in high-transmission areas to reduce spread.
Teams rely on low-tech traps placed outside homes to collect mosquitoes, then test them to determine what percentage carry the virus. In areas with high rates of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, field teams apply larvicide and go door-to-door urging residents to use repellent and get rid of breeding grounds, authorities said.
The ongoing explosion of cases presages a future in which dengue becomes one of the dominant mosquito-borne threats to humanity, experts said, in some countries even eclipsing malaria. As temperatures in tropical regions get too hot for other mosquito species, Aedes aegypti is poised to take over.
Singapore, Brazil and Colombia have programs to infect mosquitoes with a bacteria called Wolbachia, which blocks offspring released into the wild from transmitting the dengue virus. But that expensive and labor-intensive strategy has not been approved in the United States.
In Puerto Rico, one big challenge remains awareness among clinicians, who seldom treat the disease. The CDC and Puerto Rico health department are training doctors to monitor for warning signs of severe dengue, including abdominal pain, persistent vomiting and bleeding from the gums or nose. Unlike other diseases, where fever reduction is often a sign someone is getting better, the reverse is true for dengue.
Rivera, the emergency room pediatrician who recently treated 9-year-old Genesis, said she recognized the dengue symptoms in the young patient only because her own aunt and cousin had contracted dengue during the coronavirus pandemic. When Rivera rushed them to a hospital, doctors insisted the two had covid, not dengue. Her aunt almost died, Rivera said.
“There’s no rapid test for dengue,” Rivera said. “We have to diagnose it clinically.”
Genesis received intravenous fluids in the hospital, and her platelet count gradually trended up. Three days later, she was allowed to go home. Despite her recovery, the girl remains vulnerable to a second infection.
The mosquitoes are out here, waiting to bite.
Jun 14, 2024
Too Fuckin' Bad, Bubba
A tropical disturbance brings a rare flash flood emergency to Miami and much of southern Florida
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Although more rain could trigger additional isolated Florida flooding on Friday, forecasters say the strong, persistent storms that dumped up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) in southern parts of the state appear to have passed.
Some neighborhood streets in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas still have standing water, although it is rapidly receding, officials said.
This aerial view taken from video shows multiple cars stranded on a road in Northeast Miami-Dade County, Fla., on Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Daniel Kozin)
“The worst flooding risk was the last three days,” said Sammy Hadi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. “The heaviest rainfall has concluded.”
The no-name storm system pushed across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico at roughly the same time as the early June start of hurricane season, which this year is forecast to be among the most active in recent memory amid concerns that climate change is increasing storm intensity.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held a media briefing in Hollywood, south of Fort Lauderdale, and said while more rain was coming, it’s likely to be more typical of South Florida afternoon showers this time of year.
“We are going to get some more rain today, maybe throughout the balance of the weekend. Hopefully it’s not approaching the levels that it was, but we have a lot of resources staged here and we’ll be able to offer the state’s assistance,” he said.
May 20, 2024
The Change Is Real
When the plutocrats clutch their pearls, and blanch at the prospect of having to take a hit in order to move away from an economy that they've totally geared for dirty fuels, they always scream about the enormous cost that all you little people will have to bear, so don't fuck with us and maybe we'll throw you a tiny bone sometime and blah blah blah.
Guess what.
Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report
A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product, researchers have found
The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.
A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.
A 3C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently”, it adds.
“There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.
“I think everyone could imagine what they would do with an income that is twice as large as it is now. It would change people’s lives.”
Bilal said that purchasing power, which is how much people are able to buy with their money, would already be 37% higher than it is now without global heating seen over the past 50 years. This lost wealth will spiral if the climate crisis deepens, comparable to the sort of economic drain often seen during wartime.
“Let’s be clear that the comparison to war is only in terms of consumption and GDP – all the suffering and death of war is the important thing and isn’t included in this analysis,” Bilal said. “The comparison may seem shocking, but in terms of pure GDP there is an analogy there. It’s a worrying thought.”
The paper places a much higher estimate on economic losses than previous research, calculating a social cost of carbon, which is the cost in dollars of damage done per each additional ton of carbon emissions, to be $1,056 per ton. This compares to a range set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that estimates the cost to be around $190 per ton.
Bilal said the new research takes a more “holistic” look at the economic cost of climate change by analyzing it on a global scale, rather than on an individual country basis. This approach, he said, captured the interconnected nature of the impact of heatwaves, storms, floods and other worsening climate impacts that damage crop yields, reduce worker productivity and reduce capital investment.
“They have taken a step back and linking local impacts with global temperatures,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University who wasn’t involved in the work and said it was significant. “If the results hold up, and I have no reason to believe they wouldn’t, they will make a massive difference in the overall climate damage estimates.”
The paper found that the economic impact of the climate crisis will be surprisingly uniform around the world, albeit with lower-income countries starting at a lower point in wealth. This should spur wealthy countries such as the US, the paper points out, to take action on reducing planet-heating emissions in its own economic interest.
Even with steep emissions cuts, however, climate change will bear a heavy economic cost, the paper finds. Even if global heating was restrained to little more than 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century, a globally agreed-upon goal that now appears to have slipped from reach, the GDP losses are still around 15%.
“That is still substantial,” said Bilal. “The economy may keep growing but less than it would because of climate change. It will be a slow-moving phenomenon, although the impacts will be felt acutely when they hit.”
The paper follows separate research released last month that found average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years compared to what they would’ve been without the climate crisis. Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research.
Both papers make clear that the cost of transitioning away from fossil fuels and curbing the impacts of climate change, while not trivial, pale in comparison to the cost of climate change itself. “Unmitigated climate change is a lot more costly than doing something about it, that is clear,” said Wagner.
The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.
A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.
A 3C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently”, it adds.
“There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.
“I think everyone could imagine what they would do with an income that is twice as large as it is now. It would change people’s lives.”
Bilal said that purchasing power, which is how much people are able to buy with their money, would already be 37% higher than it is now without global heating seen over the past 50 years. This lost wealth will spiral if the climate crisis deepens, comparable to the sort of economic drain often seen during wartime.
“Let’s be clear that the comparison to war is only in terms of consumption and GDP – all the suffering and death of war is the important thing and isn’t included in this analysis,” Bilal said. “The comparison may seem shocking, but in terms of pure GDP there is an analogy there. It’s a worrying thought.”
The paper places a much higher estimate on economic losses than previous research, calculating a social cost of carbon, which is the cost in dollars of damage done per each additional ton of carbon emissions, to be $1,056 per ton. This compares to a range set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that estimates the cost to be around $190 per ton.
Bilal said the new research takes a more “holistic” look at the economic cost of climate change by analyzing it on a global scale, rather than on an individual country basis. This approach, he said, captured the interconnected nature of the impact of heatwaves, storms, floods and other worsening climate impacts that damage crop yields, reduce worker productivity and reduce capital investment.
“They have taken a step back and linking local impacts with global temperatures,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University who wasn’t involved in the work and said it was significant. “If the results hold up, and I have no reason to believe they wouldn’t, they will make a massive difference in the overall climate damage estimates.”
The paper found that the economic impact of the climate crisis will be surprisingly uniform around the world, albeit with lower-income countries starting at a lower point in wealth. This should spur wealthy countries such as the US, the paper points out, to take action on reducing planet-heating emissions in its own economic interest.
Even with steep emissions cuts, however, climate change will bear a heavy economic cost, the paper finds. Even if global heating was restrained to little more than 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century, a globally agreed-upon goal that now appears to have slipped from reach, the GDP losses are still around 15%.
“That is still substantial,” said Bilal. “The economy may keep growing but less than it would because of climate change. It will be a slow-moving phenomenon, although the impacts will be felt acutely when they hit.”
The paper follows separate research released last month that found average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years compared to what they would’ve been without the climate crisis. Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research.
Both papers make clear that the cost of transitioning away from fossil fuels and curbing the impacts of climate change, while not trivial, pale in comparison to the cost of climate change itself. “Unmitigated climate change is a lot more costly than doing something about it, that is clear,” said Wagner.
May 10, 2024
Comin' Up Fast
This piece says straight out that it'll take 40 years to stop the increase in CO2, even if we could slow our emissions dramatically starting right now.
And if we got those emissions down close to zero by the end of this century, it'll take another 200 years for CO2 to drop below 400ppm again.
Seems like it's getting harder not to shrug and say, "We're fucked anyway - why bother."
But here's the thing: It's not unreasonable for me to do something good now, so as to make things better for people two centuries after I'm dead.
I'll never sit in the shade of an oak tree I plant today, and I don't need my magnificent foresight acknowledged by someone who will.
Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever.
Hawaii’s Mauna Loa’s Observatory just captured an ominous sign about the pace of global warming.
Atmospheric levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide aren’t just on their way to yet another record high this year — they’re rising faster than ever, according to the latest in a 66-year-long series of observations.
Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever measured at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration laboratory atop a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island. And from January through April, CO2 concentrations increased faster than they have in the first four months of any other year. Data from Mauna Loa is used to create the Keeling Curve, a chart that daily plots global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, tracked by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego.
For decades, CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa in the month of May have broken previous records. But the recent acceleration in atmospheric CO2, surpassing a record-setting increase observed in 2016, is perhaps a more ominous signal of failing efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the damage they cause to Earth’s climate.
“Not only is CO2 still rising in the atmosphere — it’s increasing faster and faster,” said Arlyn Andrews, a climate scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.
A historically strong El Niño climate pattern that developed last year is a big reason for the spike. But the weather pattern only punctuated an existing trend in which global carbon emissions are rising even as U.S. emissions have declined and the growth in global emissions has slowed.
The spike is “not surprising,” said Ralph Keeling, director of the CO2 Program at Scripps Institution, “because we’re also burning more fossil fuel than ever.”
Why carbon dioxide levels keep rising
Carbon dioxide levels naturally ebb and flow throughout each year. At Mauna Loa, they peak in April and May and then decline until August and September. This follows the growth cycle of northern hemisphere plants: growing — and sequestering away carbon — during the summer months and releasing it during fall and winter as they die and decompose.
Once CO2 makes it into the atmosphere, it stays there for hundreds of years, acting as a blanket trapping heat. That blanket has been steadily thickening ever since humans turned materials that were once dense stores of carbon — oil and coal, primarily — into fuel to burn.
That means the Keeling Curve reaches new heights each May, forming a new peak in a sawtooth-like pattern.
 |
| The Keeling Curve, a diagram of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, shows a spike each May as northern hemisphere plants grow - yet the trend overall is upward. (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) |
The chart originated when Charles David Keeling, Ralph Keeling’s father, started recording atmospheric concentrations of CO2 atop the Mauna Loa volcano in the late 1950s. It was the first effort to measure the planet-warming gas on a continuing basis and helped alert scientists to the reality of the intensified greenhouse effect, global warming and its impact on the planet.
Each annual maximum has raised new alarm about the curve’s unceasing upward trend — nearing 427 parts per million in the most recent readings, which is more than 50 percent above preindustrial levels and the highest in at least 4.3 million years, according to NOAA. Atmospheric CO2 levels first surpassed 400 parts per million in 2014. Scientists said in 2016 that levels were unlikely to drop below that threshold again during the lifetime of even the youngest generations.
Since that year, carbon dioxide emissions tied to fossil fuel consumption have increased 5 percent globally, according to Scripps.
Why annual increases vary
The increase in carbon dioxide from year to year is not precisely consistent. One factor that tends to cause levels to rise especially quickly: the El Niño climate pattern.
El Niño is linked to warmer-than-average surface waters along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. That warmth affects weather patterns around the world, triggering extreme heat, floods and droughts.
The droughts in particular contribute to higher-than-normal spikes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, Keeling said.
Tropical forests serve as reliable stores of carbon because they don’t go through the same seasonal decay as plant life at higher latitudes. But El Niño-linked droughts in tropical areas including Indonesia and northern South America mean less carbon storage within plants, Keeling said. Land-based ecosystems around the world tend to give off more carbon dioxide during El Niño because of the changes in precipitation and temperature the weather pattern brings, Andrews added.
That can allow CO2 concentrations to rise especially quickly on the tail end of El Niño events — such as the current one, which NOAA scientists said Thursday is likely to end this month.
The increase observed at Mauna Loa over the past year is some five times larger than the average annual increases seen in the 1960s, and about twice as large as in the 2010s, according to NOAA data.
A record surge in early 2016 was also at the end of a historically strong El Niño.
Why carbon matters
It will take some four decades to stop the annual growth in CO2 concentrations, even if all emissions began declining now, Andrews said. Because Earth’s carbon cycle is so far out of its natural equilibrium, plants, soils and oceans would give off stores of extra CO2 in response to any reduction in humans’ emissions, she said.
And for CO2 concentrations to fall back below 400 parts per million, it would take more than two centuries even if emissions dropped close to zero by the end of this century, she added.
In the natural carbon cycle, the element passes through air, soil and water, and plants and animals, eventually making its way into deep ocean sediments and fossils deep underground. Carbon’s movement throughout Earth systems helps regulate our planet’s temperatures — unlike on Venus, for instance, where CO2 accounts for most of the atmosphere, making that planet’s surface hellishly hot.
But human emissions of CO2 throw that system out of balance. It’s like adding more and more trash to a dump, Andrews said. Even if each load of trash gets smaller, “it’s still piling up.”
May 3, 2024
Jan 20, 2024
Information/Perception Conflict
This may be part of the problem:
Climate report projects continued warming and declining streamflows for Colorado (see story below)
Maybe it's mostly a problem with headline writers or editors who have to be at least as interested in getting clicks-n-eyeballs as they are in getting people well-informed.
And that may be because of the mandates coming down from the C-Suites of a near-totally corporatized media cartel.
And yes, I get it - you can't very well tell people what they need to know if you can't get their attention, and nothing works at all if you don't sell something to fund your endeavors. But c'mon, this thing that looks for all the world like sensationalist WWE-style manufactured-conflict. Is this shit really the best we can do?
Anyway, we've evolved a "system" where the Wacky Leftie Greenies are having to slug it out with the Wingnut Dirty Fuels Gang on the battlefield of public opinion instead of everybody acknowledging that the basic science is in, and the people who know about this stuff pretty much have their arms around the damned thing - so we need to be talking about what we have to be doing now, and not whether there's reason to be doing things.
Fake lord have mercy.
Scientists predict with high confidence that Colorado’s future spring runoff will come earlier; soil moisture will be lower; heat waves, droughts and wildfires will be more frequent and intense; and a thirstier atmosphere will continue to rob rivers of their flows — changes that are all driven by higher temperatures caused by humans burning fossil fuels.
These findings are according to the third Climate Change in Colorado Assessment report, produced by scientists at the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University and released Monday. Commissioned by the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the report’s findings have implications for the state’s water managers. Borrowing a phrase from climate scientist Brad Udall, climate change is water change — which has become a common maxim for those water managers.
The report focuses on 2050 as a planning horizon and projects what conditions will be like at that time. According to the report, by 2050, the statewide annual temperatures are projected to warm by 2.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit compared with a late-20th-century baseline and 1 to 4 degrees compared with today. Colorado temperatures have already risen by 2.3 degrees since 1980. By 2050, the average year is likely to be as warm as the hottest years on record through 2022.
This warming, which scientists are very confident will come to pass, will drive the other water system changes that Colorado can expect to see. As temperatures rise and streamflows decline, water supply will decrease.
According to the report, by 2050 there will be an annual reduction of 5-30% in streamflow volume; a 5-30% reduction of April 1 snow-water equivalent (a measure of how much water is in the snowpack) and an 8-17% increase in evaporative demand (a measure of how “thirsty” the atmosphere is). A hotter, drier atmosphere can fuel dry soils and wildfire risk. Peak snowpack, which usually occurs in April, is also predicted to shift earlier by a few days to several weeks.
“Streamflows are primarily driven by snowpack that melts in the spring,” said Becky Bolinger, CSU research scientist, assistant state climatologist and lead author of the report. “When you are warming your temperatures, you are first changing the timing of when that snowpack will melt. And because we’re losing more to the atmosphere, that means we have less to run off in our rivers and be available for us later.”
Scientists are less certain about whether precipitation will increase or decrease in the future. Dry conditions have persisted across the state over the past two decades, with four of the five driest years occurring since 2000. Most climate models project an increase in winter precipitation, but they suggest the potential for large decreases in summer precipitation. But even if precipitation stays the same, streamflows will dwindle because of increased temperatures.
Planning for less water
CWCB officials hope water managers across the state will use the report to help plan for a future with less water. Many entities have already shifted to developing programs that support climate adaptation and resilience.
“I think we can say with confidence that it is more likely that we will have water shortages in the future,” said Emily Adid, CWCB senior climate adaptation specialist. “I think this report is evidence of that and can help local planners and people on the ground plan for those reductions in streamflow.”
Denver Water is one of those water providers that will use the report’s findings in its planning. The utility, which is the oldest and largest in the state, provides water to 1.5 million people and helped to fund the report. Denver Water has been preparing for a future with a less-reliable water supply through conservation and efficiency measures, reservoir expansion projects and wildfire mitigation.
“Projected future streamflows is a huge challenge for the water resources industry,” said Taylor Winchell, Denver Water’s senior planner and climate adaptation specialist. “The same amount of precipitation in the future means less steamflow because temperatures will continue to warm. … All this leads to this concept of uncertainty. We really need to plan for a variety of ways the future can happen essentially.”
Another finding of the report is that temperatures have warmed more in the fall than other seasons, with a 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit increase statewide since 1980, a trend that is expected to continue. Although it’s hard to pinpoint the exact cause of fall warming, Bolinger said it may have to do with the summer monsoons pattern, which can bring moisture with near-daily thunderstorms, but which have been weaker in recent years. That precipitation is critical, she said.
“First, you’re keeping the temperatures from getting too hot because you’re clouding over and getting storms,” Bolinger said. “And generally, with higher humidity, you’re going to have less evaporative loss from the soil. What we’ve been seeing in recent years is that we’re not getting that moisture in the late summer and into the fall.”
Less moisture and higher temperatures in the fall also leads to lower soil moisture and kicks off a vicious cycle of decreased water supplies. The dry soil gets locked in under the winter’s snowpack, and when spring melting begins, the water must first replenish the soils before feeding rivers and streams. This is what occurred in the upper Colorado River basin in 2021 when a near-normal snowpack translated to just 31% of normal runoff and the second-worst inflow ever into Lake Powell.
Some water-use sectors already experience shortages, especially those with junior water rights. Initiatives set up to support the environment and recreation are also at risk with shortages. And those shortages are likely to get worse in the future. In addition to grant programs, one of the ways CWCB aims to help these water users adapt is with a future avoided cost explorer (FACE) tool, which is outlined in the 2023 Water Plan. This modeling tool can help water managers figure out the costs of addressing — or failing to address — hazards such as wildfires, droughts and floods.
According to the report, extreme climate-driven events such as heat waves, droughts and wildfires are expected to be more frequent and intense.
“That gives you a little bit of perspective to say, ‘Well, what if I invest to mitigate this now, how can I lessen the potential impact in the future?,’” said Russ Sands, chief of CWCB’s water supply planning section. “I’m not trying to scare people; what we’re trying to do is motivate change and help them invest early.”
Despite the near-certainty of continued warming and resulting changes to the water system, Bolinger said there is a bright spot. Since the last time that a Climate Change in Colorado report was issued, in 2014, the world has begun to take action on reducing fossil fuel use and has shifted away from the worst-case scenario. Earlier projections were based on a “business as usual” assumption, with no climate mitigation.
“We do have things that have been put into place internationally like the Paris Accord,” Bolinger said. “We are more along the lines of a middle-case scenario. As long as we continue to take the actions that have been planned out, we are going to follow that middle scenario, which does show warming, but it’s not as bad.”
Jan 9, 2024
Hottest One Yet
BRUSSELS, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Last year was the planet's hottest on record by a substantial margin and likely the world's warmest in the last 100,000 years, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Tuesday.
Scientists had widely expected the milestone, after climate records were repeatedly broken. Since June, every month has been the world's hottest on record compared with the corresponding month in previous years.
"This has been a very exceptional year, climate-wise... in a league of its own, even when compared to other very warm years," C3S Director Carlo Buontempo said.
C3S confirmed 2023 as the hottest year in global temperature records going back to 1850. When checked against paleoclimatic data records from sources such as tree rings and air bubbles in glaciers, Buontempo said it was "very likely" the warmest year in the last 100,000 years.
On average, in 2023 the planet was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, when humans began burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Countries agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to prevent global warming surpassing 1.5C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), to avoid its most severe consequences.
The world has not breached that target - which refers to an average global temperature of 1.5C over decades - but C3S said that temperatures had exceeded the level on nearly half of the days of 2023 set "a dire precedent".
Professor of Climate Change at Newcastle University Hayley Fowler said the record-breaking year underlined the need to act "extremely urgently" to reduce emissions.
"The speed of change in the political world and the will to actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not matching the speed of change of extreme weather and warming," she said.
Despite the proliferation of governments' and companies' climate targets, CO2 emissions remain stubbornly high. The world's CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil and gas hit record levels in 2023.
Last year, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere rose to the highest level recorded, of 419 parts per million, C3S said.
It was also the first year in which every day was more than 1C hotter than pre-industrial times. For the first time, two days - both in November - were 2C warmer than in the pre-industrial period.
Last year was 0.17C hotter than 2016, the previous hottest year - smashing the record by a "remarkable" margin, Buontempo said.
Alongside human-caused climate change, in 2023 temperatures were boosted by the El Nino weather phenomenon, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and contributes to higher global temperatures.
What scientists do not know yet is whether 2023's extreme heat is a sign that global warming is accelerating.
"Whether there's been a phase shift or a tipping point, or it's an anomalously warm year, we need more time and more scientific studies to understand," C3S Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said.
Each fraction of temperature increase exacerbates destructive weather disasters. In 2023, the hotter planet aggravated deadly heatwaves from China to Europe, extreme rain which caused floods killing thousands of people in Libya and Canada's worst wildfire season on record.
"Comparable small changes in global temperatures have huge impacts on people and ecosystems," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist who co-leads the World Weather Attribution global research collaboration, said.
"Every tenth of a degree matters," she added.
The economic consequences of climate change are also escalating. The U.S. suffered at least 25 climate and weather disasters with damages exceeding $1 billion, while droughts ravaged soybean crops in Argentina and wheat in Spain.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)