Belle

Coming soon - to a propaganda network near you.

They're going to juice the numbers.

Because numbers never lie, but people lie with the numbers all the fuckin' time - especially this Trump gang.

Providers and Moochers

I haven't seen a good comparison, and you have to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation, but there seems to be a pretty strong connection between places that are really good for businesses and really bad for the people living there.

And it seems like a bad sign that Arkansas gets a grade of D- on livability, while being one of the most improved states.

Could be some really bad shit comin'.

These are America’s 10 worst states to live in for 2026

Key Points

• Crime rates, air quality, healthcare access, worker protections, and civil rights laws are among factors that can hurt a state in quality of life rankings.
• With more states touting their quality of life when trying to attract business, CNBC is giving it more weight in the 2026 America’s Top States for Business rankings.
• Based on the data, quality of life in some states does not make the grade.

As more companies insist their employees return to the office, they know they need to offer something in return to attract and retain good people. That’s why finding a place where people will want to live is an increasingly important factor as companies decide where to set up shop.

“Quality of place, especially investing in quality of place, is the top thing you can do for talent attraction and retention,” said site selection consultant Larry Gigerich, managing executive director of Ginovus in Indianapolis, and chairman of the Site Selectors Guild.

CNBC is placing increasing emphasis on Quality of Life, one of the 10 categories of competitiveness in our annual America’s Top States for Business study. It is our annual ranking of every state’s business climate, now in its 20th year. Under this year’s methodology, the category makes up 11.6% of a state’s overall score, up from about ten percent last year.

To score the states for quality of life, we use hard data on factors like crime rates, air quality and healthcare. We also consider the cost and availability of childcare, inclusiveness of state laws, and reproductive rights. Some states offer exemplary quality of life. But these ten states do not make the grade.

Arkansas

• Strengths: Childcare, Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Crime, Health, Inclusiveness
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 103 out of 290 points (Top States grade: D–)

Arkansas is a most-improved state overall this year in our annual rankings, but nearly 19% of its households lack the resources to put adequate food on the table, placing the Natural State dead last for food insecurity, according to the United Health Foundation. Last year, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders signed legislation guaranteeing free breakfast in public schools, but there is clearly more work to do. Arkansas also has one of the highest violent crime rates in the nation, according to FBI statistics, and among the weakest protections against discrimination, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Oklahoma

• Strengths: Childcare, Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Reproductive Rights, Worker Protections
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 103 out of 290 points (Top States grade: D–)

Oklahoma imposes one of America’s strictest bans on abortion, even though studies, including one by the National Bureau of Economic Research last year, found abortion bans increase net migration outflows, particularly among single adults. The Sooner State ranked 40th for worker protections last year, according to Oxfam America, which said that the state’s $7.25 minimum wage covers only about 19% of the cost of living for a family of four, and noted that state law prohibits municipalities from setting their minimum wages any higher. A ballot measure last month to have voters approve a minimum wage increase failed.

Alabama

• Strengths: Childcare, Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Worker Protections, Health, Inclusiveness
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 99 out of 290 points (Top States grade: D–)

Alabama ranks dead last for mental health providers per capita, even though nearly a quarter of residents have been told by a health professional that they have a depressive disorder. Alabama also ranks at the bottom for its worker protections, which include only two of the 16 measures that Oxfam America considers critical (mandating equal pay by gender and race, and restricting access to salary history). Workers lack other basic protections including mandatory paid sick leave and protections against sexual harassment. Alabama is one of five states with no public accommodation law protecting non-disabled people against discrimination, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Missouri

• Strengths: Air Quality, Worker Protections
• Weaknesses: Crime, Health, Inclusiveness
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 98 out of 290 points (Top States grade: D–)

With 462 violent offenses per 100,000 residents in 2024, according to FBI crime statistics, Missouri is among America’s most violent states. The Show-Me State also ranked in the top 10 for firearm deaths last year. In June, Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a sweeping crime bill aimed at helping to get the situation under control. It includes tougher sentences, a greater ability to charge juveniles as adults, and several new offenses involving cyberstalking and the use of drones.

Utah

• Strength: Crime
• Weaknesses: Health, Childcare, Worker Protections, Air Quality
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 95 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

For all its natural beauty, Utah is not the healthiest place to live, ranking No. 47 for primary care providers. Air quality leaves something to be desired, with high ozone levels, according to the American Lung Association. The Beehive State gets its nickname from the industriousness of its workers. But the state doesn’t do much to make their lives easier. The state minimum wage of $7.25 an hour covers just 16.5% of the cost of living for a family of four, according to Oxfam America. And Utah has just 513 licensed childcare centers in a state with 3.5 million people, according to Child Care Aware of America.

Georgia

• Strength: Childcare
• Weaknesses: Inclusiveness, Health, Worker Protections
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 89 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

Georgia offers few protections for LGBTQ+ people, making it one of America’s least inclusive states.

“Georgia still remains a state where there is no place for hate, and I can assure all Georgians of that today,” Republican Gov. Brian Kemp said in April, when he signed a bill aimed at protecting religious freedom.

But critics feared the law could be used to permit other types of discrimination, especially because Georgia is another of the five states with no public accommodation law protecting non-disabled people.

The Peach State offers minimal worker protections, particularly when it comes to the right to organize.

Louisiana

• Strengths: Childcare, Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Crime, Inclusiveness, Reproductive Rights
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 89 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

Louisiana has the nation’s fifth-highest violent crime rate. The state recorded 495 homicides in 2024, and it has the nation’s second-highest firearm death rate after neighboring Mississippi. Louisiana has among the nation’s strictest abortion bans, enshrined in the state constitution. Gov. Jeff Landry, a Republican, has been on a rampage against diversity, equity and inclusion policies, which he calls “woke” and discriminatory.

In January, he announced on Facebook that he was removing affirmative action requirements from the state’s civil service code, to be replaced by hiring “strictly on the basis of merit.” And he asked the U.S. Department of Education’s civil rights division to expand its investigation of DEI policies at colleges and universities in the Pelican State.

While Landry contends the changes make the state “color blind,” critics say they freeze in place the disadvantages minority Louisianans continue to face.

Indiana

• Strength: Crime
• Weaknesses: Childcare, Air Quality, Health
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 82 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

With just 779 licensed childcare facilities in a state with nearly 7 million people, Indiana finishes at the bottom for childcare availability on a per capita basis. And what is available is expensive, eating up 15% of the median income for a household with two working parents in the Hoosier State. In June, Indiana’s childcare agency unveiled a sweeping new policy proposal aimed at expanding access by, among other things, easing licensing requirements. Critics allege the proposal sacrifices quality.

Texas

• Strengths: Childcare, Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Health, Crime, Inclusiveness, Worker Protections, Reproductive Rights
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 78 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

While Texas continues to lead the nation in attracting workers, those workers are finding a broad array of challenges when they get there. The Lone Star State has America’s highest rate of people without health insurance at 16.7%, according to the United Health Foundation, more than twice the national average. More than 17% of Texas adults said they had to forgo a doctor visit that they needed in the past year because of the cost. Even those who do have health insurance can have trouble finding a doctor. The state finishes dead last in primary care physicians per capita.

In May, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott announced $56 million in federal grants to rural hospitals. “We will deliver state-of-the-art treatment for everyone who calls Texas home,” the governor said in a statement. Some 31 million people call Texas home, so the grants amount to about $1.80 apiece, or about $350,000 for each of the state’s nearly 160 rural hospitals.

America’s Worst Place to Live in 2026: Tennessee

• Strength: Air Quality
• Weaknesses: Crime, Inclusiveness, Worker Protections
• 2026 Quality of Life score: 64 out of 290 points (Top States grade: F)

Tennessee Republicans, led by Gov. Bill Lee, make no apologies for a rash of state laws targeting the LGBTQ+ community, including a so-called “bathroom law” requiring transgender people to use the facilities designated for their sex at birth. The state also explicitly bars localities from adopting their own antidiscrimination ordinances. To underscore the point, Lee signed a resolution earlier this year designating June “Nuclear Family Month.”

“The nuclear family, consisting of one husband, one wife, and any biological, adopted, or fostered children, is God’s design for familial structure and has been the bedrock of society since the creation of the world,” the resolution states.

Its sponsors deliberately timed the observance to coincide with the month when Tennessee’s more than 300,000 LGBTQ+ people celebrate Pride.

Inclusiveness isn’t the only area where the Volunteer State falls short. Tennessee also has one of the highest violent crime rates in the nation, according to FBI statistics. And it has the third-highest rate of drug deaths, according to the United Health Foundation.

The 10 worst state economies in America in 2026

Key Points

• While fears of a recession have subsided, lingering concerns about inflation, geopolitical tensions and an AI bubble have companies considering the local economy when deciding where to set up shop.
• State economic development organizations are touting their states’ economic strength and stability in their pitches to lure businesses.
• Economy is a key category in CNBC’s America’s Top States for Business study, now in its 20th year. It finds some states do better than others — and some do substantially worse.

Most economists now seem to agree that the immediate threat of a recession has passed, but that does not mean there is not concern about inflation, geopolitical tensions or a bursting AI bubble knocking the economy off track. Some states are better situated to weather a downturn than others. Companies know that, so they look for states with stable economies when deciding where to set up shop.

States know it, too, so many continue to market themselves as economic havens.

“Companies can thrive in a world-class business environment with the most diverse economy in the nation,” Illinois’ economic development site proclaims.

“In Michigan, you’ll find a global network of leading companies across numerous industries,” its state site notes. “From Fortune 500 companies to fast-growing startups and hundreds of thousands of small businesses, companies of all sizes are driving economic opportunity in every corner of our state.”

CNBC analyzes every state’s marketing pitch as part of our annual America’s Top States for Business study. This year, we found the economy to be the second most frequently mentioned attribute (after infrastructure). So, under our methodology, the Economy category carries the second-heaviest weight in 2026—worth 16.6% of a state’s total score.

To measure each state’s economy, we consider job growth, economic growth, and the number of major companies headquartered in the state. We also measure each state’s fiscal health, including its budget situation, its long-term obligations and its debt ratings, as well as the health of the residential real estate market. We also consider the impact of tariffs, the potential impact of federal budget cuts, and small business survival rates.

Some states clearly deliver on their economic promises, but these are not those states. Here are America’s worst state economies in 2026.

10. Oklahoma

Oklahoma is among the most dependent on federal funding, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. More than 40% of state spending in Oklahoma comes from Washington, D.C., putting the state in the top 10 for reliance on the feds.

“That’s not rugged individualism; that’s a subsidy,” wrote Shiloh Kantz of the Oklahoma Policy Institute in August. “And it means that the hard fiscal choices some of our leaders brag about are possible only because someone else is footing the bill.”

It also leaves the Sooner State vulnerable to potential federal cuts.

Economic growth was moderate last year, which is leaving the housing market under some stress.

2026 Economy score: 172 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D)

Real GDP (2025): $213.5 billion (+1.5%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa1, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 40.4%

International goods trade: $24.9 billion (9% of GDP)

Major corporations: Paycom Software, ONEOK, The Williams Companies

9. North Dakota

The days of North Dakota’s oil frenzy back in the early 2000s and 2010s are long gone, and even the surge in oil prices at the start of the Iran war earlier this year was not enough to get companies to resume drilling in the Bakken Shale in a meaningful way. Economic growth in the Peace Garden State was the lowest in the nation last year. New business formations were also among the lowest. One thing the state did right was to build up its reserves during the flush times. The state could last nearly a year on its total fund balance if all else failed, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts.

2026 Economy score: 171 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D)

Real GDP (2025): $63.6 billion (+0.3%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa1, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 34.5%

International goods trade: $14.5 billion (17.6% of GDP)

Major corporations: None

8. New Hampshire

New Hampshire’s fiscal situation is anything but rock solid. The Granite State’s spending outpaces revenues, according to the most recent financial disclosures. New Hampshire’s public employee retirement systems are underfunded to the tune of more than $5.5 billion, among the worst pension gaps in the country. Job growth is tepid, and the survival rate for new businesses is among the lowest in the country, according to data provided to CNBC by business research firm Construction Coverage. The state’s economy is growing at a healthy pace, however, with the help of new residents fleeing higher taxes in neighboring states like Massachusetts.

2026 Economy score: 170 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D)

Real GDP (2025): $96.87 billion (+2.1%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa1, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 39.4%

International goods trade: $17.2 billion (13.7% of GDP)

Major corporation: Iron Mountain

7. Alaska

Alaska is heavily dependent on the federal government, which accounts for more than 45% of state spending. Only Louisiana (48.6%) and Indiana (46.3%) rely more on Uncle Sam. The Last Frontier also has among the largest percentages of federal employees in its workforce. Alaska did turn in solid economic growth last year, even before the surge in oil prices this past February. And optimism is growing as the Trump administration moves to expand drilling in the North Slope and pursues an 807-mile natural gas pipeline to deliver gas from Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula and the world.

“Alignment of state and federal leadership means potential for major moves in Alaska’s mining and oil and gas development,” wrote state economist Karinne Wiebold in January, though the pipeline — and any economic windfall that comes with it — is still years away.

2026 Economy score: 169 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D–)

Real GDP (2025): $57.5 billion (+2.8%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa2, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 45.3%

International goods trade: $9.8 billion (13.1% of GDP)

Major corporations: None

6. South Dakota

Economic growth was modest last year in South Dakota, but to hear state officials tell it, things are looking up — and they are not referring to the Mount Rushmore State’s most famous, lofty attraction. Earlier this year, in her first-quarter economic update, Secretary of State Monae Johnson pointed to nearly 4,000 new business filings in the quarter, “surpassing first-quarter filing totals from each of the previous six years.” She did not mention that the comparisons were relatively easy. According to Census data, South Dakota ranked 35th in new business formations per capita last year, growing only about 4% from 2024. Once businesses do get off the ground in South Dakota, however, they stand a good chance of surviving. The state ranks No. 15 in Construction Coverage’s small business survival index.

2026 Economy score: 168 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D–)

Real GDP (2025): $58.5 billion (+1.4%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aaa, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 42.4%

International goods trade: $4.88 billion (6% of GDP)

Major corporations: None

5. Kansas

The housing market in Kansas is a study in contrasts. Inventory is tight, with around a two-month supply of homes on the market as of May, according to Redfin. Yet, price appreciation has been modest, and seller gains have been weak, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. It all means that the real estate market is not the economic engine it might normally be. One reason may be that the Sunflower State is not doing well in attracting workers, according to data from labor market analytics firm Lightcast. Job growth in the state is weak, though overall economic growth was reasonably good last year.

2026 Economy score: 162 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D–)

Real GDP (2025): $185.1 billion (+2%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa2, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 27.4%

International goods trade: $29.4 billion (12.2% of GDP)

Major corporations: None

4. Louisiana

Louisiana faces serious exposure to a pair of stiff headwinds in the economy: tariffs, and a shrinking federal government in a state that disproportionately relies on Washington. No state has more of its spending funded by the federal government. And with nearly one-third of the Pelican State’s GDP made up of international goods trade, Louisiana’s tariff costs have skyrocketed, according to Washington, D.C.-based research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide, which provided data to CNBC. Perhaps as a result, Louisiana has seen some of the weakest economic growth in the nation. Overall job growth has been strong but uneven. The latest forecast from Louisiana State University’s E.J. Ourso College of Business, through the first quarter of next year, calls for more job growth, “but employment in only 4 of the state’s metro areas is forecast to grow at a rate of 1% or greater.” The forecast calls for modest improvement in GDP, growing at a rate of about 1.5% into the beginning of 2027.

2026 Economy score: 160 out of 415 points (Top States grade: D–)

Real GDP (2025): $259.9 billion (+1.1%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa2, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 48.6%

International goods trade: $109.4 billion (32.2% of GDP)

Major corporations: Pool, Entergy

3. West Virginia

West Virginia is not handling the transition from a coal-centered economy to whatever comes next well. The Mountain State’s labor force participation rate is the lowest in the nation, even as prices rise — putting more and more everyday needs out of reach. Economic growth and job growth rank near the bottom. One potential bright spot — and maybe a lifeline — is the state’s housing market. Inventory is near optimum, affordability is good, and yet prices are appreciating well.

2026 Economy score: 146 out of 415 points (Top States grade: F)

Real GDP (2025): $83.2 billion (+0.5%)

Debt Rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa2, Positive

Share of state spending from federal funds: 20.5%

International goods trade: $9.5 billion (8.7% of GDP)

Major corporations: None

2. Maryland

Economic growth and job growth nearly flatlined in Maryland over the past year. The Old Line State’s deep connection with the federal government next door has a lot to do with that, as Gov. Wes Moore pointed out in his State of the State address in February.

“In just the last year, the federal government has fired around 25,000 Marylanders who have federal jobs in our state alone,” said Moore, a Democrat. “It’s the biggest federal job cut of any state in the country.”

But the Maryland Chamber of Commerce also blames “high costs, unpredictable taxes, and growing regulatory burdens.”

“If we want a stronger future, we must prioritize an economy that supports business investment, expansion, and long-term growth,” the organization said.

Whatever the reason, Maryland finds itself in a deep hole in 2026, with no easy way out of it.

2026 Economy score: 143 out of 415 points (Top States grade: F)

Real GDP (2025): $436.17 billion (+0.7%)

Debt rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa1, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 31.2%

International goods trade: $56.6 billion (10% of GDP)

Major corporations: McCormick and Company, Lockheed Martin, Marriott International

1. Rhode Island

To hear Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee tell it, the state is about to have its moment. McKee, a Democrat, writes on a website devoted to what he calls the RI 2030 Plan that “National shifts in defense spending, the return of advanced manufacturing, and rapid technological innovation are aligning with Rhode Island’s long-standing strengths in defense, ocean technology, and the life sciences.”

But if, indeed, the Ocean State’s ship is about to come in, it is taking a long time getting there. In the meantime, economic growth was the ninth weakest in the country last year. Foreign direct investment was practically nonexistent, as were new business formations.

Rhode Island is also especially vulnerable to tariffs. Costs skyrocketed last year in a state where international goods trade makes up over 18% of nominal GDP.

2026 Economy score: 121 out of 415 points (Top States grade: F)

Real GDP (2025): $64.2 billion (+1.1%)

Debt rating and outlook (Moody’s): Aa2, Stable

Share of state spending from federal funds: 38.5%

International goods trade: $15.5 billion (18.5% of GDP)

Major corporations: Hasbro, Citizens Financial Group, CVS Health

The Fall Is Coming

The moves from real assets to paper to electronic to cyber is unsettling and disruptive at best - and potentially catastrophic.

Unlimited infinite growth is not sustainable. Left alone, an economy will overspeed and explode. Like a cancer, rapid unregulated growth kills the host 100% of the time.

Here we go again.

Blockbuster Stock Sales Are Threatening to Overwhelm the Bull Market

Companies’ race to issue shares reminds some analysts of later stages of prior rallies

The rush for cash by some of the world’s largest companies is putting the long bull market at risk.

SpaceX’s record $75 billion public offering. Alphabet’s $85 billion equity raise. A $26 billion-plus sale of American depository receipts from the South Korean chip-making company SK Hynix.

Investors have been cheering the raging bull market for years—three years and nine months, to be precise—with the S&P 500 having more than doubled during that period. Now companies are racing to take advantage, raising concern that the party could be coming to an end.

Markets don’t collapse because of old age. Even high prices aren’t usually enough alone to cripple a bull. But one way stocks can slow is when new issuance overwhelms investors, as supply outstrips demand. Companies raced to sell shares in late 1999 and the first half of 2000, for example, which some believe contributed to the dot-com collapse.

That is why some investors are wary of the recent rush of stock and bond issuance, as well as a slowdown in stock buybacks. Already this year, $344.7 billion of new shares have been sold to investors—more than the full-year totals in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2022, according to Dealogic, which includes public offerings, follow-ons and convertible bonds in its totals.

“Stock issuance tends to surge in the late stages of a bull market,” says Rob Arnott, chair of Research Affiliates.

The pace of issuance is picking up. Last month, SpaceX went public in the biggest-ever IPO. On Friday, SK Hynix’s offering marked the largest-ever share sale by a non-U.S. company. More issuance is on the way, with the AI developer Anthropic and others planning to go public.

And fewer companies are buying back shares, another way the overall supply of shares is swelling.

Overall, U.S. companies will issue a net $500 billion of equities and debt over the next year, compared with a net reduction of $1 trillion of stocks and bonds in recent years, mostly from stock buybacks, according to Elm Wealth, an advisory firm.

A surge of share sales doesn’t guarantee a stock slump, of course. Comparable issuance took place in 2021, as investors hoovered up shares of special-purchase acquisition companies, also known as SPACs. Many of those deals ran into problems, costing investors big money, though the S&P 500 shook the concerns off, soaring 27% in 2021.

But a surge of stock sales is a phenomenon sometimes witnessed near the end of bull markets, as companies take advantage of investor exuberance.

One of the bigger shifts lately is that AI “hyperscalers,” or companies operating huge data centers and other AI services, are selling shares and debt to raise capital for a historic capital-expenditure spree.

These companies are expected to have total capex of more than $800 billion this year, up from $450 billion last year, and the figure will top $1 trillion next year, according to Janus Henderson Investors.

“Many of the hyperscalers are beginning to undo years of carefully manicured capital allocation, with share buybacks now making way for share issues,” says John Lloyd, Janus Henderson’s global head of multisector credit.

Amazon.com alone raised $85 billion in equity sales in the first half of this year, Lloyd notes, while Oracle now has negative cash flow.

“Pre-AI, these companies were extraordinary cash businesses with little debt that really focused on buybacks,” he says. “That’s all changed.”

Some veterans say a surge in stock issuance along with fewer stock buybacks shouldn’t worry investors too much, partly because they have a marginal impact on the overall market’s supply and demand. After all, the value of the U.S. stock market is close to $80 trillion, dwarfing the changes in issuance.

It is difficult to predict when rising stock sales and slowing buybacks might weigh on stocks, says Howard Marks, co-chairman of the investment firm Oaktree Capital Management. Just as important, he says, they are unlikely to be enough by themselves to end a bull market.

“It is a reflection of an environment of optimism in the business sector and that investors don’t want to miss out,” says James Paulsen, the former chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, who writes a Substack. “In the extreme, that’s a sign that things are overdone.”

It isn’t clear whether a surging supply of shares can derail a market that has a lot going for it. Earnings have been strong, and the economy shows few signs of slowing. Stock prices are at expensive levels—the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 1.05%, for example, its lowest level on record, according to Research Affiliates—but markets rarely fall because of high valuations.

If spending on artificial intelligence can continue apace, this bull market might have longer legs than past such markets.

“I’m in the Cassandra camp, but continued good news on the AI front can sustain this rally,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management.

Even those who consider the market overpriced are wary of betting against it. Arnott, for example, recommends that investors buy shares of smaller companies and emerging-market value stocks, rather than pulling out of the market.

Historically, rising interest rates, new regulations and underappreciated risks have brought bulls down. In 1987, it was portfolio insurance, while subprime lending sank the market in 2008. But the Federal Reserve isn’t likely to raise rates enough to cripple the economy or the market, according to investors.

Marks says he doesn’t detect similar potential risk factors comparable to portfolio insurance or subprime lending.

“I don’t see prominent excesses, and our economy feels pretty good,” he says. “It would be folly to predict a recession any time soon.”

Jessica

It's a grim portrait.

Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds

About 57% of polled Americans also believe economy is worsening in grim portrait of cost of living crisis, according to Harris survey for the Guardian

Ninety-five per cent of Americans believe the US is suffering an affordability crisis, as many report trouble with the rising cost of groceries and gas, according to an exclusive new poll conducted for the Guardian.

The survey, conducted by Harris Poll, paints a bleak picture of how people feel about the US economy amid the war in Iran and ahead of the key midterm elections this fall.

Despite stable employment and record-high stock markets, more Americans believe the overall economy is getting worse (57%) than in February (46%), when the poll was last conducted and before the war in the Middle East sent gas prices soaring. Fewer people today also believe the economy is getting better (16%, compared with 28% in February) and more say their financial security has gotten worse.

The affordability struggle crosses party lines: about half of all Democrats, Republicans and independents say they are having trouble affording everyday necessities like gas and groceries. Two-thirds of Americans – including 49% of Republicans – said they have little faith that the federal government will improve the cost-of-living crisis they face.

Though Republicans have been far more optimistic about the economy than Democrats and independents under Donald Trump’s second term, the war in Iran seems to have soured those in the president’s base.

While 49% of Republicans said the economy was getting better in February, just 27% said the same in the new poll. Meanwhile, 38% of Republicans say the economy is now getting worse compared with 22% who said the same in February.

Even rural Americans, a strong base for Republicans, are feeling more pessimistic: 64% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 46% who said the same in February.

Rural Americans were also the most likely to say that good job opportunities have disappeared over the past year and that tariffs have negatively affected American manufacturing jobs in the past year.

Cratering economic sentiment may cause problems for the Republican party, which is trying to maintain a narrow control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.

Even as his party has tried to appeal to working-class voters, Trump has offered up a whiplash reaction to the affordability issue, simultaneously denying that it exists while also trying to exert his power to bring down prices. Though Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has fallen sharply since the US and Iran signed a peace deal in June, US gas prices at the pump have been slow to go down to prewar levels.

After dismissing high gas prices, Trump and his treasury secretary demanded that oil and gas companies lower their prices ahead of the 250th anniversary of America’s Independence. He also recently derailed a bipartisan housing bill aimed at tackling the US’s affordable housing shortage as a “minor importance” compared with other priorities, including unproven claims of voter fraud.

But the poll also showed worrying signs for Democrats, who have been trying to convince independent voters that the party will be able to solve the affordability crisis. Among independent voters who believe there is an affordability crisis, more than half (54%) said that neither party has a solution.

The Harris survey also highlighted the discrepancies between the job opportunities Americans see in their local communities and overall labor market data. The most recent jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, found that the labor market has remained relatively strong, with an average of 111,000 new jobs added over the past three months.

Rising inflation brought on by the war has wiped out wage gains over the past year. In May, the annual rate of inflation rose to 4.2% as average hourly earnings decreased 0.7% compared with the year before.

Meanwhile, the rising cost of everyday expenses is just the tip of the iceberg for Americans who have debt. About half of those polled said they are struggling to afford their debt, including student loan debt, which has been subject to stricter payment plans under the Trump administration.

Jobs

Numbers don't lie, but people lie with numbers all the time.

About That Trump Economy

Wages Are Falling. Wealth Is Surging. No Wonder Americans Are Unhappy.

As Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, workers are facing higher prices and fears of A.I.-driven job losses.

Two events from the past week help crystallize this strange, contradictory moment for the U.S. economy.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the surge in energy prices had wiped out a year and a half of wage gains for the average American worker. On Friday, the public-markets debut of SpaceX made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

That stark juxtaposition helps explain why many Americans, in survey after survey, say they no longer believe the U.S. economy is working for them. A few people are getting fabulously, unimaginably wealthy at the same time that entire generations of families worry they will never be able to afford to buy a house, raise children or enjoy a comfortable retirement.

“I don’t think the stock market is necessarily causing” Americans’ pessimism about the economy, said Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard professor who studies public sentiment. “But I don’t think people are looking at it and are thinking, ‘Great, this means I’m going to do very well, too.’ It’s potentially reinforcing this feeling of ‘I’m falling behind.’”

Inequality is hardly a new feature in America. But the explosion of wealth at the very top is without precedent in U.S. history. At the height of the Gilded Age at the end of the 19th century, the richest handful of Americans had a net worth equivalent to about 3 percent of the country’s annual economic output, according to data compiled by the French economists Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez. Today, the fortunes of the same 0.00001 percent — about 20 individuals — make up roughly four times as large a share, equivalent to 12 percent of annual output.

Other economists, using different methodologies, come up with somewhat different numbers. But hardly anyone disputes the basic fact that the wealthiest few have made extraordinary gains in recent years.

The picture for the other 99 percent of Americans is more nuanced. More than half of U.S. households own stocks, either directly or through retirement accounts, meaning they have benefited at least somewhat from the record-setting run-up in share prices. Wealth has risen more slowly for middle-class families than for the rich over the past decade, Federal Reserve data shows, but it has still risen.

For most Americans, however, “wealth” is a somewhat abstract concept, tied up in the house where they live and the retirement accounts they hope to leave untouched for as long as possible. What matters more, day to day, is their income. And the share of national income going to workers has been trending down for decades. It hit a record low in the first quarter of the year, according to data from the Commerce Department.

Now, rising costs are again taking a bite out of workers’ paychecks. The recent jump in energy prices — a result of the war with Iran — pushed the annual inflation rate to a three-year high in May. Hourly wages, adjusted for inflation, have fallen for three months in a row, erasing all the gains made during President Trump’s first year in office. Measures of consumer sentiment have plummeted as gas prices have risen.

Oil prices have eased somewhat in recent weeks on hopes of a lasting cease-fire, and are likely to fall further if the United States and Iran reach a deal and tankers begin to move out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in greater numbers.

Gas prices at a Shell station in Chicago this week. Credit...Scott Olson/Getty Images
But relief at the pump is not likely to end Americans’ anxiety after years of one economic shock after another. First, the Covid-19 pandemic shut down large parts of the economy and put tens of millions of people out of work, at least temporarily. Then inflation soared to the highest level in four decades. Since then, Americans have endured high interest rates, tariffs and repeated recession scares.

“If you think about what it felt like to go through Covid, and then inflation, and also political unrest and instability, you come out of those things thinking, ‘How am I supposed to plan for the future?’” said Elizabeth Wilkins, president of the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank.

Ms. Stantcheva, the Harvard economist, has found that bouts of high inflation take a long-term toll on consumers’ economic attitudes. That is not only because of the strain on their budgets but also because it seems unfair — the wealthy are able to absorb higher prices relatively easily, while lower-income households struggle.

“It goes hand in hand with a big sense of inequity and injustice,” she said.

Now Americans face a new threat in the form of artificial intelligence, which tech industry leaders warn could eliminate whole categories of white-collar work. Many economists are skeptical of those predictions, but polls show that many workers are worried about what the technology will mean for their careers. Voters across the country have also rebelled against plans to build A.I. data centers in their communities, citing their impact on electricity bills, water supplies and air quality.

Given those concerns, it is hardly surprising that the public is uncomfortable with the surge in wealth that has accompanied the A.I. boom. Companies connected to the technology have driven the recent gains in the stock market. SpaceX’s debut on Friday was the first in what is expected to be a series of giant initial public offerings for A.I. companies. (SpaceX, though best known for its rockets and satellites, also owns an A.I. lab and has made huge investments in A.I. infrastructure.)

In addition to making Mr. Musk a trillionaire, the SpaceX I.P.O. alone was expected to mint thousands of new millionaires and several billionaires.

“Many of the tech moguls who are the current superrich have not helped themselves in the conversation by saying, ‘My innovation is going to obliterate your life,’” said Glenn Hubbard, an economist at Columbia Business School who served as a top adviser to President George W. Bush. “It’s not too crazy to imagine a backlash.”

Mr. Hubbard said he did not necessarily see a problem with the existence of billionaires or even trillionaires, as long as people were getting rich through entrepreneurship and innovation rather than through corruption or cronyism. But he said policymakers should take the public attitudes seriously. Congress should consider ways to tax billionaires more effectively, he said, and to ensure that the wealthy don’t exert undue influence on the political system.

Many progressive economists, however, argue that enormous fortunes like Mr. Musk’s inherently distort both the economic and the political systems, giving the superrich too many ways to avoid regulation, taxation and oversight.

“It’s the power to influence markets, it’s the power to buy competitors, it’s the power to influence policymaking,” said Mr. Zucman, one of the French scholars of wealth inequality. “If you want a well-functioning market economy, it’s not good to have too much concentrated power with extreme wealth at the very top. It distorts markets. It distorts democracy.”

The A.I. boom is still in its nascent stages, and some analysts are skeptical that SpaceX and other companies will earn profits to justify their sky-high valuations. If the doubters are right, share prices could fall and Mr. Musk’s trillionaire status could prove short-lived.

But such a decline could have consequences for ordinary Americans as well. A.I.-related investments have helped carry the economy through a tumultuous period; the stock market boom has helped prop up consumer spending as wage growth has cooled. A bursting of the A.I. bubble would put millions of jobs in jeopardy, from the electricians wiring data centers to the waiters serving wealthy investors in high-end restaurants. And it would vaporize trillions of dollars in paper wealth held in 401(k) accounts and college saving plans.

That can make A.I. feel like something of a Catch-22 for workers: If the technology succeeds in reshaping the economy, they could lose their jobs. If it fails to live up to the hype, their retirement savings could evaporate. No wonder so many Americans feel that the economy is rigged against them, said Heather Boushey, who served as an adviser in the Biden administration and has written a book about the economic impact of inequality.

“Clearly our economy is designed to create a handful of billionaires and a trillionaire,” Ms Boushey said. “It is no longer about creating opportunity and stability for the majority.”

Mr Global

A word about "we" being all manly macho, exporting all that oil.

Belle

Gotta love the Dr Strangelove reference. Pretty funny, and appropriately sardonic.

The arsonist demanding credit for eventually showing up to fight the fire.

Homes Etc

There's a number of reports that seem to conflict - some saying home sales are up, and the number of pending deals is up, and jobs are up, and the markets are up, and all kinds of happy talk stories, while at the same time, Americans are going deeper into debt trying to pay the bills, and US Treasury bonds aren't selling well.

Debt struggles are hitting consumers at all income levels - it’s a ‘tipping point...’

Americans are ‘entrenched’ in financial stress amid debt and price pressures

Car payments squeeze Americans as auto debt hits $1.68 trillion, report finds

It's weird and getting weirder.

Sellers are pulling homes off the market at the fastest pace since 2020

Key Points

• Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin.
• Delistings were up 3.8% compared with March.
• Atlanta saw the most homes taken off the market as higher mortgage rates and elevated gas prices weigh on housing.

More frustrated home sellers were giving up, right in the midst of the all-important spring market, according to new data.

Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That ties with December for the highest share of homes delisted since March 2020, when the pandemic hit and the housing market froze. Delistings in April were up 3.8% compared with March.

The increase comes as higher mortgage rates, elevated gas prices and weaker consumer confidence take their toll on housing demand. Sellers are no longer in the driver’s seat and aren’t getting the prices they want.

Atlanta saw the highest share of homes come off the market in April, with 1 in 10 delisted. San Jose, California, followed with roughly 9% pulled, then Los Angeles (7.8%), Dallas (7.8%) and Seattle (7.7%).

Mortgage rates had been falling at the start of this year, with the 30-year fixed briefly touching the 5% range at the end of February, according to Mortgage News Daily. They then jumped sharply when the war with Iran started and have remained elevated since then.

“Buyers know they have negotiating power, often offering under the asking price and completing inspections, but some sellers just won’t budge,” said Patricia Ammann, a Redfin agent, in a release.

Home prices have been easing, but are still higher than they were a year ago and have even begun to strengthen more recently.

“Markets that depend more heavily on traditional mortgage financing and rate-sensitive buyers are seeing prices stay relatively flat,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, in a release. “Overall, fewer markets posted year-over-year price declines in April than in prior months, pointing to continued stabilization across the housing market.”

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Signed contracts on existing homes, so-called pending sales, did rise very slightly in April, up 1.4% from March, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is likely due to higher inventory, which was up nearly 6% from March.

Listings in some parts of the country are starting to pile up, as new ones come on the market and other ones sit. Homes are sitting on the market longer, causing some buyers to simply give up as the all-important spring season draws to a close.

Some homeowners who pulled their homes off the market over the past year relisted them in April, according to Redfin, hoping to take advantage of the spring market, despite higher mortgage rates. The report found 2.5% of the homes on the market in April were relistings, tied with the prior two months for the highest share since mid-2020 when there was a sudden surge in housing demand.

This Should Be Fun

Flesh-Eating Screwworm

A screwworm larva is a parasitic, flesh-eating maggot of the screwworm fly (most notably the New World screwworm, Cochliomyia hominivorax). Unlike regular maggots that only eat dead tissue, screwworm larvae burrow into living flesh to feed. This causes severe, foul-smelling wounds that can be fatal to humans, pets, and livestock if left untreated.

So glad Elon took a nine pound sledge hammer to all the agencies that have kept us - and the whole fuckin' world - quite a bit safer than it used to be.

So glad we can look forward to years of remediating preventable shit, and more years of rebuilding the safeguards that put people in place who actually knew what the fuck they were doing.

The institutions and agencies that study things like New World Screwworms, aren't there as bullshit make-work opportunities for the nerds - they're there to help people stay healthy, and to keep the economy from imploding every time there's some weird shit that pops up and threatens some aspect of a very complex system.

1. there
2. are
3. no
4. simple
5. 10-word
6. answers
7. to
8. the
9. important
10. questions

Flesh-eating screwworm returns to U.S. after 60 years, threatening cattle herd

The case of New World screwworm was confirmed in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas, near the U.S.-Mexico border, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said late Wednesday.

A flesh-eating parasite that had been kept out of U.S. livestock for decades has been detected in Texas, threatening the nation’s cattle industry and food supply at a time when prices are already high.

The case of New World screwworm was confirmed in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, near the U.S.-Mexico border, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said late Wednesday.

The parasitic fly’s larvae feed exclusively on the living tissue of warm-blooded animals.

While the fly is capable of infecting humans and pets, such cases are rare and pose little risk to the broader public, according to experts.

The parasite does not pose a food safety threat, but a wider outbreak could still cost the livestock industry billions of dollars and put additional pressure on beef prices that are already at record highs.

The case is the first confirmed detection of New World screwworm in Texas since 1966, and is the only confirmed case identified in the country so far, said Rollins.

It follows months of warnings from U.S. and Texas agriculture officials and cattle industry leaders, as the pest steadily moved north through Mexico toward the American border.

“For months, the screwworm has advanced rapidly through Mexico in spite of the USDA’s existing gameplan,” Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said Wednesday, adding that “instead of using every available tool, USDA moved too slowly and relied solely on a partial solution that takes years to fully implement.”

Miller has also called on President Donald Trump to take direct control of the government’s response, and “throw every available federal resource at this threat before it becomes a full-blown agricultural disaster.”

Screwworm Livestock

The primary weapon against screwworm is a decades-old technique that has eliminated the parasite from the U.S. in the past — releasing sterilized male flies into affected areas. Since female flies generally mate only once, those that pair with sterile males are unable to produce offspring.

In a bid to contain the spread of the parasite, USDA said it has begun releasing sterile flies in the area and is investing heavily in new sterile flies production facilities in Texas.

It has also established a roughly 12-mile quarantine zone around the site and restricted the movement of warm-blooded animals, including livestock and pets to further strengthen the response.

State veterinarians are urging ranchers and pet owners inside the quarantine zone to follow movement restrictions while eradication efforts continue.

Rollins said the USDA is confident enough in its preparations that it believes “there is no threat of mass infestation.”

“Protecting our livestock industry is a national security issue of the utmost importance, and USDA is wasting no time in taking action,” said Dudley Hoskins, a USDA under secretary. “USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico. The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again.”

Unlike contagious livestock diseases, screwworm does not spread directly from animal to animal. Instead, female flies lay eggs in open wounds or body openings.

Once the eggs hatch, the larvae burrow into living flesh and feed on tissue, potentially causing severe infections and death of livestock if left untreated.

The U.S. cattle herd is already at its lowest level in 75 years, with a major screwworm outbreak threatening to further reduce supplies and increase costs for ranchers and consumers alike.

The most recent human screwworm case in the U.S. was identified in Maryland last year after a traveler returned from El Salvador.

The person recovered, and federal health officials found no evidence that the parasite had spread to others.

Belle

Paying more and getting less.

Americans feel worse about their economic outlook than they have since 1952.

Amanda's Friday

Almost half of us aren't making enough to cover our basic needs.

Dr Maslow, please report to the National Day Room. Dr Maslow - to the day room ASAP.

More Slippage

More workers are raiding their 401(k)s as average balances fall, Fidelity says

Key Points

• Retirement balances fell in the first quarter of 2026 amid severe market volatility sparked by the Iran war, according to a new report by Fidelity.
• At the same time, more savers tapped their accounts for cash out of financial necessity.
• Most financial experts advise against raiding a 401(k) since you’ll be forfeiting the power of compound interest.

Financial pressures pushed more savers to tap their retirement accounts in the first part of 2026, new data shows — potentially locking in losses during the early weeks of the Iran war.

Amid severe market volatility earlier this year, the average 401(k) balance fell by 4% to $141,000, according to first-quarter data released Thursday from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans.

The average individual retirement account balance was also down 4% to $131,380 in the first quarter, Fidelity found.

The drop was due to the outbreak of the Iran war, which sparked a stock selloff, according to Kirsten Hunter Peterson, vice president of workplace thought leadership at Fidelity Investments. “Luckily, a couple of months later, we are trending in a much better direction,” she said, referring to recent market highs.

After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 lost 5.1% in March for its worst monthly performance since 2022. The Dow dropped 5.4%, snapping a 10-month winning streak. The Nasdaq declined 4.8%.

Markets have since rebounded from earlier losses. As of Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up roughly 5.3% year to date, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 10% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 14.8%.

More workers are pulling money from their 401(k)s

However, more savers also tapped their accounts to free up cash during this time, which experts say is a sign of underlying financial strain.

The share of workers with an outstanding loan at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was 19.2%, up slightly from 18.8% a year earlier, according to Fidelity. About 2.4% of workers took out a new loan from their 401(k) in the first quarter, up from 2.3% in 2025.

The share of workers taking a hardship withdrawal, which is broken out separately, also rose year over year to 2.5% from 2.3%, Fidelity found. A hardship withdrawal can be taken from a retirement plan without paying an early withdrawal penalty for an “immediate and heavy financial need,” according to the IRS.

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Many households have struggled in the face of rising prices for necessities like groceries and gas due to the Iran war. As a result, consumers have had less room in their budgets to cover an unexpected expense or emergency, experts say.

In most cases, workers take hardship withdrawals for less than $2,000, Fidelity’s Hunter Peterson said, which is “not so significant.” But some are taking more than one hardship withdrawal in a year, which indicates a more precarious financial position. “Those are the type of savers we want to monitor,” Hunter Peterson said.

A 401(k) hardship withdrawal should be a last resort, according to certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, a wealth management firm in New York City. Early withdrawals may trigger taxes and a 10% penalty, but “the long-term compounding loss is even larger,” he said.

Why 401(k) hardship withdrawals are on the rise

“The 401(k)-withdrawal trend … reflects broader pressure across household finances as inflation and elevated living costs continue squeezing consumers,” said Boneparth, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Plus, pulling money out during a market downturn makes it harder to recoup losses in the long run, financial advisors also say.

The households best positioned to weather sudden affordability challenges are the ones with even a modest emergency cushion, Boneparth said. If monthly cash flow is tight, redirect a small amount — such as $25 to $50 a month — into a high-yield savings account as a buffer before cutting retirement contributions, he said.

Meanwhile, the majority of retirement savers continued to contribute during the first quarter, helped by features like auto-escalation, which automatically raises a worker’s savings rate each year, often by a percentage point at a time, Fidelity said.

The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, edged up to 14.4%, a record high and just shy of Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

“While it can be tempting to make changes to retirement savings during market volatility, it is positive to see participants stay the course with their contributions — an approach that will ultimately strengthen outcomes as retirement nears,” Sharon Brovelli, president of Fidelity’s workplace investing, said in a statement.

Slipping

We're out here gettin' fucked with our pants on, while corporate parasites are pulling down some nice fat profits.

And no, it's not just that simple, but ask yourself - when was the last time you got a 17% raise?

U.S. GDP Growth Revised Lower for First Quarter

The economy grew at a 1.6% annual rate in the quarter, down from the initial reported pace of 2%

The U.S. economy grew more slowly during the first three months of the year, updated government data showed Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the U.S., rose at a 1.6% seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate in January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The department previously estimated first-quarter GDP rose at a 2% rate. And economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the pace to stay at 2%.

The downgrade to the GDP reading was largely due to a lower estimate for inventory investment, a volatile category that is often subject to large revisions.

Even so, consumer spending on services like healthcare was revised lower for the quarter. Overall consumer spending rose at a 1.4% rate, compared with a previous estimate for 1.6%.

A key measure of U.S. business earnings, profits after tax without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, increased 3.3% from the prior quarter and was up 17% from a year ago. That was the largest year-over-year change in corporate profits since the final quarter of 2021.

Belle

She references Whirlpool CEO Mark Bitzer using the phrase "other recessionary periods" like the economy is already in recession.

Mark Zandi warns America is ‘close to the edge’ with 40% recession risk — and says US stocks are detached from reality

With stocks soaring to fresh highs, recession may be the last thing on investors’ minds. But according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, America is uncomfortably close to one.

In a recent interview with TheStreet, Zandi said the odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are now sitting at 40%.

“Just for context, in a typical economy, what economists would call the unconditional probability of recession is closer to 15%,” he said. “So, 40% is very elevated, very uncomfortable — it gives you a sense of how close I think things are to the edge here.”

Zandi’s warning came even after a better-than-expected jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 115,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% (2).

But the headline number didn’t change his view.

“The labor market is still a vulnerability in the economy, still very soft,” he said, adding that recession risks remain “very high.”

Zandi said businesses remain reluctant to hire, with hiring rates “still very low across most industries.” Hours worked also remain depressed, which Zandi said is “kind of consistent with what you’d see in a recession.”

He also pointed to falling labor-force participation — meaning fewer people are actively working or looking for work — as a warning sign. If participation had stayed steady over the past year, Zandi said, the unemployment rate would be closer to 5%.

At the same time, inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Zandi said price pressures are picking up because of the Iran war, higher energy prices, tariffs and other factors — and that is eating into household purchasing power.

“Real disposable income — that’s after tax, after accounting for inflation — is no higher today than it was a year ago,” he said. “So, there’s been no growth in purchasing power, and that’s going to get worse and start declining.”

That pressure is already showing up in the choices consumers are making.

Zandi noted that wealthy households are drawing down savings to supplement their purchasing power and maintain spending. But lower- and middle-income households don’t have the same cushion.

“They’re living more paycheck to paycheck,” he said.

If Americans have to put more of their paychecks into the gas tank, he warned, they have less left over for everything else — from gym memberships to food choices.

“You’re gonna have to trade down. You can’t have beef — you gotta have chicken,” he said.

Stocks are not the economy

Meanwhile, Wall Street has been telling a very different story. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have recently climbed to fresh highs.

To Zandi, that disconnect is part of the problem.

“The stock market’s not the economy,” he said. “In my 36 years as a professional economist, the stock market’s never been more disjointed from the economy.”

He attributed much of the market’s strength to artificial intelligence, especially large tech companies.

“What’s driving the stock market train is these big hyperscalers and chip companies,” he said, adding that the AI trade “runs on its own dynamic” and “has nothing to do with the economy.”

Zandi also said investors appear to be betting that President Donald Trump will pivot if the economy or markets start to wobble.

“Stock investors are looking at the president, the president’s looking at the stock market,” he said. “That doesn’t feel like a stable… equilibrium — it’s kind of like a hall of mirrors.”

⬆︎ That's a big red flag - if you're expected Trump to behave like a normal rational human being, you're in for a rude surprise.

Zandi also warned that valuations are stretched.

“Valuations are awfully high,” he said, noting that price-to-earnings multiples are near historic highs, “except for perhaps during the internet bubble, which didn’t end so well.”

Zandi isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has said that the market “feels exactly like 1999.”

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now holds $397.4 billion in cash — a record amount that many investors interpret as a signal of caution in an expensive market (3).

To be sure, markets are inherently volatile, and no forecast is guaranteed. But with valuations stretched and recession risk elevated, now may be a good time to consider how to diversify beyond traditional stocks.

Amanda Tuesday

Here's that story on inflation:

Inflation rate projected to hit 6% in the second quarter, top economic forecasters say

• The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.
• Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, compared with 2.7% in the prior survey.
• The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April.

The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists.

Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the second quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran, hostilities that have sent energy prices soaring while pushing inflation data well past the 2% mark the Fed targets.

For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey.

Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. The 10-year projected annual average is at 2.4%, which the survey notes would be equivalent to 2.22% by the Fed's preferred standard, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a Commerce Department measure.

The PCE inflation rates also are expected to hold well above the Fed's comfort zone, though at not as high a level as the consumer price index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics compilation.

Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared with prior estimates of 2.7%.

The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April. Headline CPI showed inflation at a 3.8% rate, the highest in nearly three years, while the producer price annual inflation rate of 6% was the peak since December 2022.

All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens.

Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years.

The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.

Up Up And Away

Now ain't that just won-fuckin'-derful.

Inflation spikes to 3.5 percent in March as Iran war drove prices higher

Prices grew at a far more rapid rate in March as the war in Iran drove a significant increase in inflation, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

The annual inflation rate in March rose to 3.5 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, up from 2.8 percent in February. Without food and energy prices, which have spiked amid the war in Iran, the annual inflation rate last month was 3.2 percent.

Prices also jumped 0.7 percent last month alone, up from a 0.4 percent increase in February, according to the Commerce Department.

The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The March annual inflation rate of 3.5 percent is far above the Fed’s target of 2 percent annual inflation.

The new inflation data was in line with the expectations of economists, who have warned about the steep toll the Iran war could take on the U.S. economy.

Powell out at Fed, or is he? Warsh confirmation advances as interest rates hold steady | Sunrise

President Trump and Republicans, who are already facing intense criticism over their handling of the economy, are likely to face even more pressure from the spike in price growth.