Today's Belle

• Revenue dollars are up
• Unit volumes are down
• 12,000 people laid off in the last 5 weeks in Shipping, Warehousing, and Manufacturing

We're buying less, it's costing us more, and fewer people are working.

Pretty sure this is what the Analysts and Business Insiders call

"Heading in the wrong fucking direction"

On The Farm

It's always good news and bad news.

• If the harvest yield is high, then the prices are low
• If the prices are high, then the harvest yield is low

BTW, Trump has changed the rules, so the big players can get busy squeezing out the little guys.

Today's Belle

Gaslighting is all they've got now.

Notice how the Trump gang dismisses the ranchers' complaints, telling them they should be grateful their product is selling at a high price, and that they should be helping consumers by lowering their prices.

Classic abuser.

How It's Going

It's been going on for a few years.

IMO it was kept going because CEOs discovered they could blame COVID, and Biden, and supply chain problems, etc, and never adjust their prices back down to reflect lower costs once the upward pressure caused by the crisis du jour began to ease.

And now we've got people turning to GoFundMe and Payday Loans to make their rent and buy groceries.

GoFundMe CEO says more people seeking help with basic needs like groceries, rent

Platform CEO notes trend spans multiple countries despite easing inflation in recent years.
Jaqueline Benitez, who depends on California's SNAP benefits to help pay for food, shops for groceries at a supermarket

More people are turning to the popular fundraising website GoFundMe for help with basic necessities like groceries, rent and utility bills, according to the platform's CEO.

Tim Cadogan said Monday on the Opening Bid Unfiltered podcast that users are increasingly seeking assistance for essential needs including car payments and other bills.

"We're seeing that more and more," Cadogan said.

The trend extends beyond the United States to many Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, which include much of North America, Western Europe and East Asia, according to Cadogan.

This pattern has increased over the last three years, even as inflation figures have eased in the U.S. during that time, Cadogan said.

The consumer price index shows costs for the ordinary American increased 2.9% in the 12-month period ending in August. September figures have been delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.

However, in the four years since August 2021, prices for goods and services in the U.S. increased 18%.

Cadogan noted that in 2024, there was a 6% increase in the amount of money raised by GoFundMe for campaigns. The overall number of donors actually declined during that period.

With potential cuts in government programs, Cadogan sees an opportunity for services like GoFundMe to help fill gaps in assistance.

"As you see this shift in maybe governments doing less, we think there's a real opportunity to help increase that percentage, specifically in the U.S.," Cadogan said.

Today's Belle

The Trumplefucks refuse to tell us the numbers on the American economy - because they know it's practically nothing but bad news.

But business has to have those numbers in order to make their plans. So they gather the basic data themselves, and it's getting ugly.

In the first half of 2025, GDP growth was 0.1%, and without the AI bubble to drive things, it'd probably be way lower.

Everything Trump touches turns to shit.

Housing Trouble

It's not 100% of course, but a slow-down in building permits generally portends a recession.

A major drop in permits, plus both inflation and unemployment ticking up, plus the Buffett Indicator being over 200% - taken together, how we stay out of a bad hole is difficult to figure.

US single-family housing starts near 2-1/2-year lows as inventory bloat weighs

• Single-family housing starts drop 7.0% in August
• Permits for future single-family home building fall 2.2%
• Fed's rate cuts may not revive housing market amid job concerns

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding plunged to a near 2-1/2-year low in August amid a glut of unsold new houses, suggesting the housing market could remain an economic headwind this quarter.

The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed permits for future single-family home construction dropped last month to the lowest level in more than two years. Some economists said the decline was necessary to manage new housing inventory, currently near levels last seen in late 2007.

"Builders have been plagued with excessive new home inventories for going on about 18 months now," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
"They have made a few half-hearted and ineffective stabs at slowing construction activity, but persistent hopes that homebuyer demand would perk up have been repeatedly dashed. It is past time that builders bite the bullet and cut back on the number of homes they are starting to get inventories under control."

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 7.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 890,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. That was the lowest level since April 2023.

Groundbreaking for single-family housing projects tumbled 17.0% in the densely populated South, where economists said most of the over-building had occurred amid a labor market boom. But the region has experienced a significant decline in job openings this year. Homebuilding rose in the Northeast, Midwest and West.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more decreased 11.0% to a rate of 403,000 units. This multifamily housing segment is extremely volatile. Overall housing starts dropped 8.5% to a rate of 1.307 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a rate of 1.365 million units. Economists hoped a recent sharp decline in mortgage rates in anticipation of the Federal Reserve resuming its interest rate cutting cycle would revive the housing market.
Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt, we're not out of the woods yet.

The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point to a 4.00%-4.25% range on Wednesday and projected a steady pace of reductions for the rest of 2025 to help the struggling labor market. The Fed paused its policy easing cycle in January because of uncertainty over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs.

THE HOUSING MARKET IS IN A SLUMP

The housing market has been in a prolonged slump following the Fed's aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. The relief from easing mortgage rates is, however, likely to be limited by tepid job gains and rising unemployment as companies hold off on hiring because of an uncertain economic outlook.

Falling new house prices and shortages of construction workers as the Trump administration rounds up undocumented immigrants could also constrain homebuilding.

The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage has dropped to an 11-month low of 6.35% last week from around 7.04% in mid-January, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
Permits for future single-family homebuilding decreased 2.2% to a rate of 856,000 units, the lowest level since March 2023. Single-family building permits dropped in the South, Northeast and West. They rose in the Midwest.

A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among homebuilders remained subdued in September, though expectations for higher sales over the next six months improved. Builders are increasingly cutting prices and offering other incentives to reduce the inventory bloat.

The number of single-family houses approved for construction that were yet to be started slipped 1.5% to 133,000 units. The completions rate for that housing segment surged 6.7% to 1.090 million. The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 2.1% to a rate of 611,000 units, the lowest level since January 2021.

Building permits for multi-family housing units plunged 6.7% to a rate of 403,000 units. Overall building permits decreased 3.7% to a rate of 1.312 million units, the lowest level since May 2020. Residential construction contracted in the first half of the year and is expected to again subtract from gross domestic product in the third quarter.

"Consumers' low confidence and heightened concerns about job security represent ongoing headwinds to demand," said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect residential investment to remain a drag on GDP growth at least until mid-2026."

The Hammer Is Falling

There's a substantial reckoning coming our way. And I think it'll be the result of a combination of a shitty Stagflation-type economy, and a very fractured political structure, which gives us a population knowing they need to fight somebody for something, but unable to figure out how to get together, much less who they should be trying to get together to fight - and what they're supposed to be fighting for.

It's a clusterfuck, stuck inside a FUBAR, trapped in a burning dumpster, rolling downhill towards a cliff - with the lid welded shut.

Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession

A growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans, according to a recent survey.

The national average FICO score dropped by two points this year, the most since 2009, according to data released Tuesday by the analytics company.

Although credit scores remain significantly higher than during the Great Recession, they are down for the second year in a row. FICO found a growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans.

Younger Americans, exposed to the double whammy of high student debt and low entry-level hiring, are under even more financial pressure.

Gen Z borrowers experienced an average credit score drop of three points — the biggest decline of any age group since 2020 during the pandemic, according to FICO.

The findings underscore the growing disconnect between the euphoria on Wall Street and pessimism on Main Street. While US stocks continue to shatter record highs, a significant chunk of Americans say they are hurting.

“We’ve seen a K-shaped economy where those with wealth tied to stock market portfolios and rising home values are doing well and others are struggling with high rates and affordability problems,” Tommy Lee, senior director at FICO, told CNN.

Mounting financial stress

Average credit scores fell sharply after the 2008 financial crisis, as unemployment skyrocketed and millions of Americans could not make their mortgage payments and defaulted on their auto loans.

Credit scores increased each year from 2013 to 2024, when they dropped by a single point, according to FICO.

But FICO found that delinquency rates on auto loans, credit cards and personal loans are at or near their highest levels since 2009.

These delinquency rates are “more consistent with an economy in recession than one still in expansion,” FICO said, adding that mortgage and home equity loan delinquency rates are still near historic lows.

FICO found that 14% of Gen Zers have had a large credit score decline of 50 points or more in the past year — more than any other year and double the decline of 2021.

Student debt hobbles Gen Z

At least some of this pressure on younger Americans is linked to student debt.

Following a Covid-era pause, student loan delinquencies were not reported on credit files until February. The Department of Education restarted collecting federal student loans in default in May.

This shift disproportionately impacts Gen Zers because about one in three (34%) of them have open student loans, double the national at large, according to FICO.

Between February and April, 6.1 million consumers had a student loan delinquency added to their credit file, according to FICO. That means the student loan delinquency rate has climbed to a record high of 29% among the 21 million borrowers with a student debt payment due.

Another 1.9 million consumers haven’t had a delinquency reported even though they have student debt payments due and haven’t made payments.

The impact of these late student debt payments is amplified by the fact that Gen Zers often don’t have the long history of making credit payments that feed into credit scores. That makes their credit scores vulnerable to more volatility, both up and down.

‘Drastic hit’ to credit score

Another problem: Younger Americans are also contending with the most difficult job market in years for new college graduates.

Dimitri Tsolakis, 22, said he applied to hundreds of jobs after graduating from American University in 2024 with a degree in international relations.

It took Tsolakis 14 months to finally land a full-time job, or at least one that wasn’t a scam. But the job he did get, as a secretary at a law firm in Orlando, called for a dramatic cut to his income relative to his prior work as a server.

“My credit score took a drastic hit because I had to compromise and take a job where I’m severely underpaid,” Tsolakis told CNN in a phone interview.

Tsolakis owes $35,000 in student debt but has had to pause repayments to focus on making his car payments and paying for other living expenses.

He’s hardly alone in skipping payments.

About one in five (19%) of consumers say they paid less or skipped bills to get by in the past year, according to a July survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. That’s up from 17% a year earlier.

Even more consumers (47%) said they cut discretionary spending in the past year, while 23% said they reduced essential spending.

FICO found that 64% of Gen Z and 61% of Millennials with student loans rely on credit cards, buy-now-pay-later loans or personal loans to bridge financial gaps.

Taking on a second job

Sue Murphy, a nurse in Philadelphia, took a parent-PLUS loan to help fund her daughter’s college education. The $70,000 in student debt requires monthly payments of just over $500.

To make ends meet, Murphy took on a second job, making her schedule 12 days on and one day off.

“It almost feels like it doesn’t pay to be an honest hardworking citizen in this country anymore,” Murphy said.

The plan had been to make 10 years of payments and then have the balance of the student debt forgiven because Murphy works at Temple Health in Philadelphia, a nonprofit medical system that qualifies for public service loan forgiveness.

However, Murphy now fears the student debt won’t qualify for forgiveness because of rule changes proposed by the Trump administration.

At the order of the White House, the Education Department has proposed amending the definition of employers that qualify for loan forgiveness by excluding employers involved in “illegal activities.”

“The Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program exists to serve American heroes like teachers, police officers, and firefighters — not individuals or employers engaged in illegal activities that harm Americans,” Ellen Keast, deputy press secretary at the Education Department, said in a statement to CNN. “The Department has no business subsidizing the employees who work for organizations that break the law by mutilating and maiming healthy children or aiding and abetting illegal immigration and terrorism.”

Murphy said she makes her payments on time so her credit score hasn’t gone down drastically but her high debt-to-income ratio doesn’t help matters.

“I will go into retirement with student debt,” Murphy said.

Mr Hartman

caveat:

I still don't fully trust Thom Hartman. He spent a little too much time on Putin's payroll, and his rehab isn't quite there yet.

But when I think he's on point, I listen.

“America's Comeback” Is Nothing but a Con Job

The recycled lies of trickle-down economics, designed to crush workers, women, and minorities alike…

When Charlie Kirk was assassinated, he was sitting under a tent that had “America Comeback Tour” printed in huge letters across all four sides. It was the theme of his tour of college campuses, a tour run by his Turning Point organization that was, according to NBC News, early-funded by ten morbidly rich rightwingers.

The question is “America Comeback” to what?

In 1981, when Ronald Reagan was sworn into office:

• Fully two-thirds of Americans were in the middle class,
• College was so cheap you could pay your tuition with a weekend job,
• Healthcare was inexpensive and widely available,
• Women and minorities had achieved legal (albeit not yet actual) parity with white men,
• And school and mass shootings were largely unknown because weapons of war were mostly outlawed from our streets.

Today, however, as a result of the Reagan Revolution:

• Only around half of us are in the middle class,
• College debt has crushed two generations to the point where they can’t start a family or buy a house,
• A half-million families end up homeless or bankrupt every year because somebody got sick,
• The GOP is leading an effort to make it harder for women and minorities to vote or maintain employment,
• And, with more guns than people, mass shootings are an almost-daily occurrence.

It's easy to see why an appealing pitch to the nation’s young people would be “comeback” or “Make America Great Again.” But what caused that “greatness” that we need to “come back to” and what wrecked it?

The American middle class is a relatively recent phenomenon. In 1900, only about 17 percent of us were in it; by the time of the Republican Great Depression it was about a quarter of us.

When Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn into office in 1933, he embarked on a radical new campaign to create the world’s first widespread, more-than-half-of-us middle class. It had three main long-term components.

First, he passed the Wagner Act in 1935 that legalized labor unions and forbade employers from bringing in scab workers or refusing to recognize a union. That gave workers democracy in the workplace, and they used that power to demand that as their productivity increased, so would their pay and benefits.

Second, he established a minimum wage to make sure that people who worked full time would never end up in poverty.

Third, he raised the top income tax rate to 90% for the morbidly rich and 52% for corporations.

That high top tax rate on the rich meant that the average CEO took only about 30 times what the average worker did (because he’d be paying 90% or 74% after taking the first few millions), leaving far more money in the company to give raises and benefits to workers.

Corporations could get around their top tax rate by investing in their business. Research and development, new product roll-outs, advertising and marketing, and increasing pay and benefits were all tax-deductible, and that high tax rate incentivized them to do these things that built a strong and resilient manufacturing economy (stock buybacks were considered illegal stock manipulation until 1983).

Reagan undid all of that, lowering the top tax rate on the morbidly rich from 74% to 27% (it’s since gone up to 34%), cutting the top corporate tax rate to 34%, and legalizing stock buybacks, so now CEOs are taking literally hundreds of billions out of their companies (Musk is set to make a trillion) and wages for workers have been mostly flat even since 1981.

In similar fashion, Reagan declared war on labor unions so effectively that that one-third of us protected by unions in 1981 has collapsed. Today private sector union membership rates are only 5.9%, with some states even lower (North Carolina 2.4%, South Dakota 2.7%, and South Carolina 2.8%.

Regarding college, 80% of the cost of an education in state-run colleges and universities was paid by government when Reagan came into office, leaving about 20% of the cost to be covered by tuition. The Reagan Revolution changed all that, so that today tuition covers the largest percentage and the state is only covering around 20%-40% (it varies from state to state).

Healthcare was inexpensive when Reagan came into office because most states required both insurance companies and hospitals to run as nonprofits. There weren’t any billionaire insurance industry executives like Dollar Bill McGuire until Republicans changed the rules of the game, letting insurance companies and hospitals run as profit-making operations at the expense of the American public.

Great strides had also been made in opportunity for minorities and women by 1981; just a decade earlier women had gained the right to have a credit card or sign a mortgage without a husband, brother, or father’s signature. Affirmative Action programs were pulling racial and religious minorities into the mainstream of the American economy, kicking off a widespread Black middle class.

So, if Charlie Kirk was all about an “American Comeback,” what were his positions on the issues that created that broad, widespread middle class that Republicans and Trump promise us they’ll restore when they “make America great again”?

On taxes, Kirk wants to replace the progressive income tax with a 10% flat tax, so even the poorest person is paying income taxes on their meager income while the morbidly rich get a massive tax break.

He called unions “cartels” and celebrated teachers losing the right to unionize.

On college tuition, he opposed any plan to reduce student debt or increase federal or state funding to higher education, calling free college a “bribe.”

And on healthcare, Kirk opposed the kind of universal healthcare every other developed country in the world has, calling the VA an example of failed “government-run” healthcare.

With regard to the rights of women and minorities Charlie was also outspoken, most notably saying about prominent Black women (including Joy Reid, Michelle Obama, Sheila Jackson Lee, and Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, whom he labeled “affirmative action picks”):

“You do not have the brain processing power to otherwise be taken really seriously. You had to go steal a white person’s slot to go be taken somewhat seriously.”

He added: “We made a huge mistake when we passed the Civil Rights Act in the mid-1960s.”

Finally, with regard to guns, even though 87% of Americans want reasonable gun control, Kirk was all-in with the firearms industry, arguing that “some gun deaths every single year” are worth the cost of Scalia’s interpretation of the Second Amendment. How do we protect our kids? Kirk said, quite simply, more guns was the solution:

“If our money and our sporting events and our airplanes have armed guards, why don’t our children?”

So, the question: How does doubling down on low taxes for the morbidly rich, keeping our healthcare for-profit, withholding higher education funding, gutting unions, increasing the number of guns, and trash-talking women and minorities make America “comeback”?

Republicans and their well-paid hustlers (Kirk took in hundreds of millions) have been promoting these positions for forty-four years and the result has been the gutting of the American middle class, now leading to anger, resentment, and political violence.

It’s way past time for America to return to the policies and positions that history proves (both in America and around the world) produce and build a strong middle class, the essential foundation for economic and political stability.

Hey, MAGA

... when do you think you might start getting tired of being played for suckers all the fuckin' time?

U.S. employers added 911,000 fewer jobs than first reported, new BLS data shows

The change from April 2024 to March 2025 was the biggest revision on record. President Donald Trump fired the BLS commissioner last month over an earlier updated report.

The U.S. labor market was far weaker during much of 2024 and early 2025 than data initially showed, a new government report indicated Tuesday — injecting more uncertainty into the economy and fueling a raging debate over the figures that analysts use to understand it.

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In the largest preliminary revision to jobs data on record, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers had created 911,000 fewer positions from April 2024 to March 2025 than previously reported. That’s less than half as many as the agency had initially indicated. The data will be revised again and finalized early next year. Economists say that report could be less negative.

But the revision adds more evidence that the economy was already slowing even before President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs and immigration policies squeezed costs for many businesses.

And it landed just a month after Trump fired the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, over weak jobs data, accusing her without evidence of overseeing government figures that were “rigged” for political purposes, including to help Democrats in the presidential election that Trump won.

The White House said the new report showed that the BLS is “broken” and that the economy was suffering under President Joe Biden.

“This makes it very clear that President Trump inherited a much worse economy by the Biden administration than ever reported,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday. “And it also proves that the Federal Reserve is holding our monetary policy far too restrictive. Interest rates are too high. The Fed needs to cut the rates because of the mess that we inherited from the Biden administration.”

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said in a separate statement that the American people had “even more reason to doubt the integrity of [BLS] data” and condemned the agency’s leaders, who she said had “failed to improve their practices during the Biden administration.”

Many economists and policymakers across the political spectrum stress that there is no reason to question the quality of the data.

Forecasters said they had expected a large revision this year due in part to slowing business growth, shifting immigration levels, declining response rates to government surveys and an apparent downward shift in the broader economy.

“These revisions don’t really change my perspective about the labor market, which was already reasonably pessimistic,” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute. “We knew the labor market was cooling over this period. A lot of other indicators came down. And in the process of that happening, we added less jobs.”

The three major stock indexes sank Tuesday morning on news of the massive downward revisions. But they rallied by midday, and all closed up slightly, as investors look ahead to rate cuts widely expected at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The new annual revisions provide a more accurate snapshot of the labor market before new economic forces began to take hold — including higher tariffs and stronger immigration enforcement from the Trump administration.

Those forces have lately weighed on the labor market, which could be heading for a downturn. Monthly jobs data published last week revealed a rising unemployment rate and weaker-than-expected job creation of just 22,000 new positions in August. Even more concerning: The data showed the labor market shed jobs in June, the first such losses since the coronavirus pandemic.

The Trump administration shrugged off last week’s report as temporary, saying it expects a resurgence of new jobs and advanced manufacturing as a result of the president’s trade and immigration policies.

Most of the revisions announced Tuesday reflect the labor market under Biden. The report does not change estimates of job gains since March.

The closely watched monthly jobs reports are based on surveys of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies — a small share of the millions of U.S. employers. So the figures become more accurate when they are later calibrated with data from state unemployment offices. When the economy is rapidly growing or shrinking — as it did during the pandemic, or as it can at the start of a recession — large changes can result, because it is harder for surveys to capture how many businesses are opening or shutting down.

The preliminary revisions announced this week bring the average monthly pace of job gains during the year ending in March to just over 70,000, down from 147,000. Tuesday’s report does not indicate when the revisions took place over the 12-month period; that information will be released when the data is finalized early next year.

The annual revisions removed about 0.6 percent of all U.S. employment, the largest percentage fix since 2009.

The changes affected many sectors but especially leisure and hospitality. The report downgraded job gains in that industry, which includes hotels and restaurants, by 176,000 positions. Retail and wholesale trade also took a hit. And the information sector, which includes media, tech and telecoms, lost the largest share of jobs, about 67,000 positions, or 2.3 percent of its total employment.

Some economists argue that the labor market is still solid. The unemployment rate remains relatively low, at 4.3 percent, as do layoffs. Lower levels of immigration could mean that fewer new jobs are needed to support the population, compared with recent years, to keep the unemployment rate stable.

Last year, the preliminary revisions to jobs data drew an uproar. BLS reported that the economy created 818,000 fewer jobs in the year ending in March 2024, which at the time was the biggest fix to federal jobs data in 15 years. Trump jumped on the revisions to accuse Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Biden of “fraudulently manipulating job statistics” for political purposes. The final revisions published early this year ended up showing a smaller change, a downgrade of roughly 598,000 fewer jobs.

Economist Michael Strain of the right-of-center American Enterprise Institute said that he believes this week’s news will “unfortunately contribute to the narrative that there’s something fishy going on at BLS. It’s possible that we’ll see an even more aggressive response from the president.”

He added: “I think there is not a shred of evidence to believe that there’s any political bias in the data and there’s not a shred of evidence to believe the data are being manipulated in any way for any reason. In addition, I think there’s lots of scope to improve the data, and that’s something that I think would require money.”

Since firing McEntarfer in early August, Trump has nominated BLS critic and Heritage Foundation chief economist E.J. Antoni to lead the agency. Antoni is facing scrutiny from policymakers and economists for his pro-MAGA partisanship, relative lack of experience and what critics have called a misunderstanding of economic data, which could threaten his confirmation hearing in the coming weeks. Antoni has said he is interested in improving the accuracy of BLS data, and the White House has said that Trump tapped Antoni to solve those problems.

Erica Groshen, who led the BLS under President Barack Obama, said the large revisions announced this week also reflected lower participation in government surveys. Only about 35 percent of employers agreed to participate in voluntary jobs surveys, according to data from April, down from 74 percent a decade ago.

Berger, of the Burning Glass Institute, said he has been giving less credence to monthly job creation data in recent years, which has been highly distorted by recent shifts in labor supply, including the surge and subsequent crackdown in immigration.

Instead, Berger and many analysts and policymakers have been paying closer attention to the unemployment rate, hiring and layoff levels, and employment ratios, which have revealed periods of weakness over the past year. For example, the unemployment rate climbed last summer, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates in September 2024.

“If your perspective has been ‘Wow, these job numbers are good, so the labor market is strong,’ you probably should have changed your mind on that a long time ago,” Berger said.

Today's Rich

No president has ever been able to outrun the economy.

Today's Belle

Everything Trump touches turns to shit.

Bad Juju

Even if you can’t trust the data, these 13 warning signs will tell you the economy is in trouble
Dave Smith - August 18, 2025

For decades, statistics that came directly from the U.S. government, especially from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), have long been the gold standard for measuring the health of the American economy. But this trust has been shaken by recent events, including substantial downward revisions to jobs data, bruising political accusations, and the unceremonious dismissal of Erika McEntarfer, the BLS’s top official, at the beginning of the month. The resulting uncertainty has left many Americans asking: If official government data can’t be trusted, how can you know if the economy is struggling?

For decades, regular reports from the BLS and other agencies have offered a detailed portrait of economic activity, from employment levels to inflation to productivity. Businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on these numbers to make informed decisions. But collecting this data is an imperfect, daunting task, particularly in an economy as large and fast-moving as that of the U.S.

The most recent jobs report underscored this difficulty. Initially, BLS figures showed moderate job growth. But after significant downward revisions, the numbers painted a far bleaker picture: Job growth was much weaker than what was previously reported, with the pace of job creation weaker than it’s been in decades, excluding the pandemic-era years. Such revisions are common but usually not this dramatic, and the political repercussions—especially President Donald Trump’s firing of the BLS commissioner and claims of political tampering—have further fueled doubt, criticism, and confusion.

So this invites the question: If you cannot trust official numbers, what concrete signs reveal economic trouble? Economists point to several alternative indicators that, individually and collectively, offer insight—often visible without needing to consult official statistics. Here are the telltale signs the average person, or a skeptical observer, should watch for.

Beyond the numbers: Recognizing economic distress

1. Labor market conditions
Even in the absence of official jobs figures, warning signs often emerge in the labor market:

• More visibly unemployed people: Lines lengthening at job centers, more “help wanted” signs vanishing, and rising rates of layoffs reported by major companies.
• Wage stagnation: If you and those around you are not receiving raises, or if companies pull back on hiring bonuses and perks, it often reflects broader malaise.
• Surge in part-time or gig work: In downturns, full-time jobs often give way to part-time or contract gigs, sometimes observable through employer and media reports.

2. Consumer behavior and social signals

The everyday economy leaves trails in consumer behavior and community life:

• Reduced spending: Noticeable drops in traffic at restaurants, shops, and malls; fewer people traveling or eating out; increased coupon clipping and price sensitivity.
• Rising defaults: More “for sale” and “foreclosure” signs, growing anecdotes of evictions or missed payments, and upticks in bankruptcies reported by courts and real estate boards.
• Charity demand: Food banks, shelters, and local charities may report higher demand, sometimes before the effects register in official figures.

3. Business activity
Businesses are often quicker than government statistics to reflect trouble:

• Layoff announcements: Corporate press releases, layoff tracker websites, and industry newsletters provide early warnings about sectors in distress.
• Inventory and discounting: Retailers stuck with excess unsold goods may start offering steeper discounts or holding clearance sales.
• Small-business closures: More empty storefronts, business liquidations, or community announcements about long-standing establishments shutting their doors.

4. Alternative and composite data
When government data falters, or is mistrusted, private sector and international organizations’ indices become invaluable:

• ADP private payroll data: While not always fully aligned with BLS figures, private payroll processors like ADP provide independent snapshots of employment trends.
• Human Development Index (HDI) and Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI): These composite measures integrate health, education, and income measures to provide a broader sense of economic well-being. States such as Maryland and Vermont have implemented GPI to supplement GDP, for example, to offer more nuanced local insights.
• Well-being indexes and social metrics: Life expectancy, educational attainment, and even poll-based “happiness” measures often capture public sentiment and living standards in ways GDP and job tallies alone cannot.

5. Public mood and media reporting

• Media and social media can be canaries in the coal mine: When headlines become dominated by stories of job losses, business failures, or personal financial hardship, it usually signals real underlying distress, even if official data has not yet caught up.

It’s understandable to be skeptical of government data, especially in the current climate. But it’s important to understand the economy is more than just a set of aggregated numbers.

There will be plenty of warning signs if things are trending downward, from empty storefronts to rising bankruptcy rates to visible community distress. So if you don’t feel as if you can rely exclusively on official figures, experts advise keeping your ears to the ground: Pay attention to local businesses, listen to stories from regular people, and keep track of movement in the private sector. The telltale signs are rarely hidden; they are, for better or worse, all around us.

Numbers

A shrinking labor force is never good news.

This number is bad news for the economy

Low unemployment is great, but only if it’s due to lots of new jobs, not an evaporating labor force.

The unemployment rate has historically been the go-to barometer for the economy’s performance. At just over 4 percent, unemployment remains low, and it has edged only a bit higher since the start of the year. Taken at face value, the economy is doing just fine.

But it’s not. If the labor force had increased this year at the pace it did last year, the unemployment rate would be headed toward 5 percent. Of course, low unemployment is great, but only if it is due to lots of new jobs, not an evaporating labor force.

And the labor force, which includes all those working and looking for work, is sounding the recession alarm bell. It has flatlined so far this year. Compare this with last year, when the labor force grew by well over 1 million workers, or the year before, when it increased by almost 2.5 million. Without more workers, it is tough for the economy to grow: A recession is more likely.

It’s no mystery what ails the labor force; it is the severe restrictions on immigration. The surge in undocumented immigrants that occurred during much of the Biden administration undoubtedly put financial and societal pressures on many communities across the country. However, many of these immigrants quickly applied for work authorization, received it and started a job less than a year after arriving.

The timing of this immigration surge was fortuitous in one crucial respect. It came when the Federal Reserve was aggressively ramping up interest rates to cool off the red-hot job market and rein in runaway inflation. There is a reasonable argument that without the immigration surge, the Fed would have had no choice but to push rates up even higher and induce a recession to quell the inflation.

Thus, the immigrant labor force has waned. This time last year, the foreign-born labor force expanded at an extraordinary 5 percent yearly pace, translating into more than 1.5 million additional workers every year. In recent months, it has declined. The native-born labor force has picked up, but not enough to fill the void left by fleeing immigrants.

A labor force flat on its back has many implications — none of them good. It means disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor. Agriculture and construction are especially vulnerable, but manufacturing, transportation, hospitality, retail, and child and elder care also depend critically on immigrants. Without these workers, labor costs will increase, adding to the inflation fueled by the tariffs. This is a compelling reason for the Federal Reserve to be cautious in resuming its interest rate cuts, and once it does, to go slowly.

More broadly, it means the economy’s potential growth — the pace of growth consistent with stable unemployment and inflation — is much lower. The economy can sustainably grow only as fast as the labor force and its productivity grow. With the labor force stuck in place, unless productivity growth ramps up, the economy’s growth will consistently fall well short of the pace we’ve come to expect and are counting on for the future.

Weak immigration and labor force growth plague other parts of the world. Take Japan and Germany, countries that struggle to attract immigrants sufficiently to expand their workforces. Their economies are seemingly almost always flirting with recession. Will this be our future, too?

Of course, we aren’t these other countries. We are leading the way on many technologies, especially artificial intelligence, which promises significant productivity gains. (By the way, consider who is running many of our most successful AI companies — yes, immigrants.) Yet even the most ardent AI proselytizers don’t expect AI and other technologies to diffuse through the economy fast enough to make up for the imminent shortfall in growth.

Lawmakers could agree on substantive immigration reform. As recently as this time last year, they nearly passed bipartisan legislation allowing more immigrants with needed skills to come here. Presidential election politics waylaid that effort, and though another political window for these reforms might open again, it won’t happen quickly enough.

Given the current immigration policy, it seems increasingly unlikely that the moribund labor force will come back to life soon, and more likely that a recession is dead ahead.

Today's Rich

And...presenting the new goon.

Signs

I guess we can stop wondering why Trump keeps whining about Jerome Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates.

And believe me, I don't feel the need to put any more dollars in a banker's pocket than absolutely necessary, so I'm never opposed to knocking a few tenths off the prime. But that idiot in the White House wants the Fed to take a full 3 points off.

The guy has no fuckin' clue what he's doing.

Meanwhile, not only are manufacturers starting to tell horror stories about billion-dollar losses, now we get to worry about housing inventories.

There's some really bad shit heading our way.

Unsold Homes Surge Nationwide As Housing Market Stalls

Thousands of unsold homes are piling up in the U.S. housing market as Americans— facing climbing prices, historically high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty—buy fewer homes, according to the latest figures.

This year was supposed to bring a rebound of the U.S. housing market, experts said in 2024. Instead, the market has come to a standstill as buyers retreat to the sidelines but prices refuse to budge.

What Is Happening in the U.S. Housing Market?

In June, the total number of unsold homes in the country was up 20 percent compared with a year earlier, according to Realtor.com, while inventory was up by 28.9 percent year-over-year. In the same month, pending home sales were down 1.6 percent from June 2024.

Even though the market did not by any standard perform well, prices continue inching up. In June, the median list price of a typical U.S. home was $440,950, up 0.2 percent since last year.

These trends have continued over the past few weeks, data from real estate brokerage Redfin shows. In the four weeks ending July 6, pending sales in the nationwide market fell 3.5 percent from a year earlier—the second-biggest decline since early February.

Instead of taking a hit, home prices went up—bafflingly so. In the same time frame, the median U.S. home sale price hit an all-time high of $399.633, up 1 percent year-over-year.

The data suggests that the U.S. housing market currently presents a complicated picture. On one hand, plunging sales and growing inventory is putting downward pressure on prices, forcing many sellers to offer reductions to attract reluctant buyers. In June, according to Realtor.com, price cuts were reported on 20.7 percent of listings—the highest share for any June since at least 2016.

On the other hand, there are parts of the country and parts of individual local markets that are faring better than others and where buyers still maintain more power over buyers.

"Some homes are moving fast, others are seeing multiple price reductions," James Gulden, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston, said in a report. "It's not location or price-tier specific; the mixed results permeate in every corner of the market. Prices are still as high as they have ever been, but with homes sitting longer, the market is slowly turning in buyers' favor."

In the South and West, inventory has grown massively and homes for sale are spending more time on the market than they were before the pandemic, pushing prices down. In the Northeast and Midwest, however, inventory remains tight and prices high.

What Does This Mean for You?

There is some good news for buyers, even as home prices have not yet stopped rising.

The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is lower now than it was last year. As of July 9, it was 6.77 percent—still very high, but down from 7.01 percent a year earlier. The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down to 6.67 percent in the week ending July 3 from 6.95 percent a year earlier. In the four weeks ending July 6, the median monthly mortgage payment was $2,708 at a 6.67 percent mortgage rate, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier but still the lowest level since early March.

Buyers are taking notice: according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchase applications were up 9 percent from a week earlier as of the week ending July 4 and up 25 percent from a year earlier.

Growing inventory—especially in Sunbelt markets—is also offering buyers more options and giving them more negotiating power, offering them what are likely the best purchasing conditions in years.

But sellers are starting to clock on the way the market has changed since the pandemic. In May, according to Realtor.com, delistings—the process of pulling for-sale homes out of the market—outpaced overall inventory gains, jumping 35 percent year-to-date and 47 percent year-over-year. In the same month, active listings were up 28.4 percent year-to-date and 31.5 percent year-over-year.

"The spike signals that some sellers would rather wait than negotiate, suggesting recent buyer-friendly momentum could wane," Realtor.com economists wrote.

Today's Belle

"... practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to push up consumer prices in June."

The Big Butt-Ugly Bamboozle

Democrats usually come with pretty decent policies that are aimed at helping us solve real world problems.

Republicans almost always come with deceptions aimed at keeping us from seeing that we're about to get royally fucked. Again.

It's Coming

Try to get ready, kids. Markets run on emotion, so the Trump recession is on its way.

And it could be a doozy.

US Consumer Confidence Retreats in June

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025.

“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”

June’s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans.

Guichard added: “Consumers’ write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices. Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations to 6.0% (down from 6.4% in May and 7% in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers’ views.”

Consumers’ outlook on stock prices continued to recover from April’s 16-month low, with 45.6% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months in June, up from 37.6% two months ago. Regarding interest rates, 57% expected rates to rise, the highest share since October 2023.

Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation remained solid but deteriorated slightly. However, consumers’ expectations regarding their Family’s Future Financial Situation improved to a four-month high. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months rose slightly in June and remained above the levels seen in 2024. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®).

Purchasing plans for cars were steady at the highest level since December 2024, while purchasing plans for homes declined. Compared to May, more consumers were undecided about plans to buy big-ticket items overall. Buying plans for most appliances were slightly up while plans to buy electronics goods were down. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services in the months ahead weakened compared to May, with almost all services categories declining. Dining out remained number one among spending intentions in services. It was one of the few categories to see spending intentions rise in June, along with motor vehicle services, museum/historic sites, and fitness. Vacation intentions were unchanged overall in the month. More consumers planned to travel abroad while intentions to travel in the US declined.

Present Situation

• Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were less positive in June.
• 19.0% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 21.4% in May.
• 15.3% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 13.7%.
• Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled somewhat in June.
• 29.2% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 31.1% in May.
• 18.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down slightly from 18.4%.

Expectations Six Months Hence

Consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions in June.

• 16.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.9% in May.
• 24.0% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 25.4%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market also became more negative in June.

• 15.4% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 18.6% in May.
• 25.9% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 26.2%.

Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was, on balance, moderately less positive in June.

• 16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 18.6% in May.
• But only 12.4% expected their income to decrease, down from 13.5%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

• Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation remained solid in June.
• Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Expected Financial Situation also improved.
• Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months remained elevated.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 18.

Today's Amy

We're in the eye of the storm, and it's about to get really bad - no matter what Trump decides to do.

I get the feeling that in a few weeks, Trump will be ordering government departments that don't exist to mount a massive effort to implement policies he vaguely remembers seeing in a cartoon movie 65 years ago.

Won't nobody be surprised if he calls a press conference and just keeps repeating something like, "Brawndo's got what the economy craves! Brawndo's got electrolytes!"

That About Covers It

Americans didn’t vote for less stuff that costs more

Trump is wrong to say he has buy-in for transforming the world’s biggest economy.

President Donald Trump seems to be in denial about the unpopularity of his trade wars. On what he intended as a victory lap to coincide with the 100th day of his second term, he repeatedly attacked pollsters as “crooked people” who put out “fake polls.”

At a rally in Michigan on Tuesday, Trump claimed his approval rating was “in the 60s or 70s.” A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts it at 39 percent. This is the same share of American adults as approve of his handling of the economy. And nearly two-thirds, 64 percent, oppose Trump’s tariffs on imported goods.

These numbers are consistent across several recent public surveys. This led to one of the more awkward moments of the past week. During a live interview Tuesday, Fox News correspondent John Roberts asked Stephen Miller, a White House deputy chief of staff, about his network’s polling. “Particularly on the economy, tariffs and inflation, he’s well underwater,” Roberts said of Trump. To which Miller responded: “It is our opinion that Fox News needs to fire its pollster. … We don’t acknowledge any of that polling.”

In another interview Tuesday, Terry Moran of ABC News asked Trump about economists warning that his trade war with China will cost the typical American family thousands of dollars a year. The correspondent said many who voted for Trump fear the fallout. Trump replied: “Well, they did sign up for it, actually. And this is what I campaigned on.” Then he insisted that China will “eat those tariffs” rather than raise prices. This is unimaginable.

During a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Trump seemed a little more willing to acknowledge that a protracted trade fight with China will force consumers to adjust their behavior. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” he said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”

This sounded like Trump’s “malaise” moment. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter delivered a notorious address from the Oval Office that was similarly motivated by a lamentation of U.S. dependence on foreign imports. In Carter’s case, though, the import was oil. “We can’t go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce,” he said. Americans didn’t want to wear cardigans or lower their thermostats. Outside wartime, calling for austerity has rarely been a winning political message.

Trump’s assumption, for decades, has been that Americans can have it all. During the rally Tuesday, he promised to make the country wealthy again. Yet here he was acknowledging to his Cabinet that Americans might need to pay more money for less stuff.

The president is right to say that he campaigned on imposing tariffs. At his rallies, he extolled the beauty of the T-word. Yet many of his voters did not think they were voting to end the era of consumerism. This has become a refrain from his administration. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in March, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream.”

Yes, Americans still want to put inexpensive Barbies, G.I. Joes and Disney dolls under their Christmas trees. But the United States depends on Chinese imports for far more than cheap toys.

Even a slight majority of Republicans, 51 percent, say they think Trump’s economic policies will cause an economic recession in the short term, even as they overwhelmingly continue to support him, according to the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll. Asked whether Trump’s policies will put the U.S. economy on a stronger foundation in the long run, only 31 percent of Americans said yes; 42 percent said they will leave us weaker, and 22 percent said it’s too soon to say.

Trump said Friday on social media that the economy is going through a “transition stage.” He’s blaming his predecessor and urging patience. So far, the U.S. economy has proved quite resilient, even as businesses pause investment decisions while they wait for some certainty about what’s ahead. Though the labor market cooled last month, the government said Friday that employers still added 177,000 jobs. And though the U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years during the first quarter, annualized gross domestic product contracted by just 0.3 percent.

A central challenge for Trump’s project is that he still has not secured buy-in to fundamentally transform the world’s biggest economy, let alone to decouple from China, the world’s second-largest economy. A resolution disapproving Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs failed in the Senate on Wednesday with only 49 votes but would have passed had two senators not been absent. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), who deserves credit for defending Congress’s constitutional prerogative, said afterward that many GOP senators privately dislike the tariffs and will start speaking out if the economy continues to weaken. They hope Trump cleans up the mess first.

With luck, this might still be possible. China signaled a new willingness Friday to start talks with the United States. Container ships that carry goods from China take about a month to cross the Pacific. Trump can get them moving again if both sides come to the table.