Here's Comes Trouble?

It takes about 6 weeks for an oil tanker to get from the Strait of Hormuz to a western port city.

It's been 38 days - ie: 5 weeks and 3 days - since Trump started his stupid little war with Iran on  Feb 28, which of course, was when the last tanker could've passed through the strait.

This Friday - Apr 10 - may well be the day we see the last of the middle east oil for a while.

If Trump has a sudden bout of Un-Crazy and calls the whole thing off right now, and the Iranians forget it ever happened, and the whole world lets us off the hook, we're still probably royally fucked for the next couple of months.

Since Trump is very likely never to do the smart thing, nothing good is bound to happen,

So file that under:

On the other hand:

I don't know if Mr Global is on point here - seems a little counterintuitive - but he's saying we shouldn't see a major shortage of gasoline in USAmerica Inc.

Trump's stupid little war in Iran is starting to cause - and will continue to cause - some big problems in the overall economy.

So no - we're not safe and secure. We have to be part of the world we live in. We are all interdependent economically, and we're all going to be effected no matter what - good or bad.

IT COULD GET BAD

WE'LL SEE

IT COULD BE ALRIGHT

WE'LL SEE

Warning Signs

Ominous Walmart signal that predicted last FOUR downturns flashes red again

A little-known recession warning tied to Walmart is flashing red again - and it’s spooked economists for a worrying reason.

The same signal has correctly predicted the last four major US downturns.

When shoppers start ditching designer brands and trading down to cheaper stores like Walmart, it’s often a sign that financial pressure is building beneath the surface.

Jim Paulsen, a veteran economist for more than 40 years, tracks what he calls a 'Walmart Recession Signal,' which compares Walmart stock to that of luxury fashion retailers.

As shoppers flock towards cheaper stores like Walmart and away from designer brands, the signal 'flashes red,' pointing to a recession looming nearby.

The indicator has surged to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. That suggests Americans are tightening their belts as fears of job losses and a recession grow.

This year alone, the indicator has jumped 28 percentage points over rising prices and the war in Iran rattled consumers, Dr Paulsen said.

Instead of splurging on premium brands, more shoppers are switching to discount essentials – a classic early warning sign that confidence is slipping.

Walmart is a major player in the discounted retail space, with over 5,000 'supercenters' in the United States alone.

As a result, Dr Paulson said choosing this chain, as opposed to Target or Walgreens, helps provide an accurate picture of lower and middle class spending habits.

'Walmart specifically caters to the lower income distribution and thereby could provide an early read on a burgeoning recession,' Dr Paulsen said.

However, according to Dr Paulsen, a sharp economic downturn shouldn't be an immediate concern for shoppers.

'My guess is the economy avoids a recession this year, but I am becoming more convinced that a significant US economic slowdown is unfolding,' Dr Paulsen wrote on Substack. He said that could mean the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates to boost the economy.

Retail analyst Neil Saunders of GlobalData agreed that Americans remain under pressure from higher prices, including recent gas hikes.

'This has made a lot of people look to value chains like Walmart to help them make their dollars go further,' he told the Daily Mail.

He added that middle-income consumers are 'trading away' luxury goods out of fear of spending too much.

'I would not say these are signs of an impending recession as they have actually been present for a while, but they are signs of a consumer that’s trying to cope with a cost of living crisis,' he said.

Economist Michael Szanto told the Daily Mail 'it's too early at this point' to assume that there will be a recession, 'though it's certainly possible.'

With new CEO Josh Furner in charge, Walmart has plans to upgrade the in-store experience for its growing customer base.

New digital shelf labels, which update automatically each night, will replace the old pricing system within the next year - and have sparked fears of AI-powered surge pricing.

Walmart says digital shelf label prices are still set by humans despite the updates, as around 2,300 US stores are already using the digital system.

What We All Knew

Trump's a fuckin' idiot. And anybody still supporting him is a fuckin' idiot too.

US Trade Deficit Widens, Capping One of Biggest Since 1960

The US trade deficit widened in December, capping a turbulent year of erratic tariff policy.

The goods and services trade gap expanded from the prior month to $70.3 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The shortfall culminated in a full-year deficit of $901.5 billion, still one of the largest in data back to 1960.

The December deficit reflected a 3.6% increase in the value of imports. Exports of goods and services declined 1.7%. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $55.5 billion overall shortfall.

The trade data were notably volatile in 2025 on a month-to-month basis as US importers reacted to a persistent drumbeat of tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Gold and pharmaceutical imports were particularly choppy as companies raced to beat higher duties.

The increase in goods imports in December included gains in computer accessories and motor vehicles. The decline in exports largely reflected fewer outbound shipments of gold, according to the trade report.

The latest trade data will help economists firm up their estimates for fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which will be released on Friday. Before the figures, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast net exports would add about 0.6 percentage point to fourth-quarter growth, now estimated at 3.6%.

After adjusting for changes in prices, which filters into the real GDP measurement, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $97.1 billion in December, the most since July. Trade in gold, unless used for industrial purposes such as in the production of jewelry, is excluded from the government’s GDP calculation.

Trump has leaned on tariffs as part of his strategy to reduce reliance on foreign goods, encourage domestic investment and correct decades of declines in manufacturing employment. He and his economic team have criticized research concluding that Americans have borne the costs of tariffs.

- and -

Hassett Attacks NY Fed for Study on Tariffs Hurting US Companies

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showing US companies bear most of the tariff burden “is an embarrassment” and the people associated with it should be “disciplined.”

“What they’ve done is they put out a conclusion which has created a lot of news that’s highly partisan, based on analysis that wouldn’t be accepted in a first semester econ class,” Hassett said Wednesday on CNBC.

Hassett said US consumers will be made better off by tariffs.

The paper published last week by the New York Fed found that nearly 90% of the economic burden from tariffs in 2025 was borne by US companies and consumers. The New York Fed did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Today's Belle et al

• Huge debt - and getting huger
• The deficit is growing
• Shrinkflation is accelerating
• Job growth sucks
• Mortgage foreclosures are rising
• Personal bankruptcy is rising
• Farm failures are rising
• Consumer Confidence is in the shitter
• and
• and
• and

But hey - The Epstein Class is doing just fine, so who cares about those workin' slob losers in the "middle class"? Fuck 'em if they can't take a joke.

How the hell do I short this market?

During a "shutdown", what essential services are cut, and what is kept up and running?

• The hotlines for reporting things like fraud and ID theft are taken down, but the office that handles corporate mergers and acquisitions is on the job
• Air traffic control operations for private jets may be impacted, but the commercial traffic has to be limited

40% of the gains in the stock markets is due to speculation on AI.

What Now?

They need us to be sick, broke and scared.

Today's Rich

Immigrants - people here legally are otherwise - are better for the US economy than Republicans.

And always remember, there was a workable proposal for real Immigration Reform on the table ready for Congress to take it up, haggle it out, and vote it into law in the summer of 2024, but Trump jumped in and told the dog-ass Republicans to throw it out so he'd have an issue to run on.

First, we got "They're eating the dogs - they're eating the cats."

And now we've got roving gangs of masked thugs raiding daycare centers and hanging out in Home Depot parking lots, hunting down anyone who looks a bit too brown - and killing people who pose absolutely no threat to anyone.

None of us should trust any politician too much, but damn - you can trust Republicans about as far as you can spit a bowling ball.

The Cato study:

Cato Study: Immigrants Reduced Deficits by $14.5 Trillion Since 1994

Immigrants’ Recent Effects on Government Budgets

Today, the Cato Institute published “Immigrants’ Recent Effects on Government Budgets: 1994–2023,” a study on the fiscal effects of immigrants—legal and illegal—that builds upon the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) fiscal effects model. The paper, which I coauthored with Michael Howard and Julián Salazar, is the first to analyze three decades of federal, state, and local government budgets to determine how immigrants affected the total US government debt and deficit.

In this paper, we wanted to accomplish two main things:

1) Provide the first-ever assessment of the total net fiscal effect of all immigrants from 1994 to 2023, rather than a one-year snapshot or forward-looking projection like many other studies. We wanted a sufficiently long period to assess claims like those by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, asserting that immigrants have already sucked us dry.

2) Provide the clearest explanation for the mechanisms driving the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets.

Immigrants Have Reduced the Deficit Every Year

Every year since 1994, when data collection began, immigrants have paid more in taxes than they received in benefits from the federal, state, and local governments. The fiscal benefits have continued to rise, reaching their highest level ever in 2023.

The fiscal surplus from all immigrants from 1994 to 2023 was $14.5 trillion, compared with a deficit of $48 trillion without immigrants. That means that immigrants cut deficits by nearly a third in real terms over the last three decades.

Why the Average Person Is Fiscally Positive

How can immigrants be so fiscally beneficial when the country overall is running such extreme deficits? The answer is that a big part of the US budget is pure public goods—primarily the military and interest payments on past debt accrued before the immigrants came—which don’t scale with population growth. These are essentially fixed costs or sunk obligations that the United States will have to cover whether immigrants come or not.

The figure below shows how, in most years, tax revenue exceeds the costs of providing benefits—that is, everything that requires scaling with population growth. Thus, immigrants will be fiscally positive so long as they are at least average in their revenue creation and benefits received. In fact, immigrants are significantly better than average in both aspects of the fiscal equation.

Immigrants Pay More Taxes, Receive Fewer Benefits

Immigrants pay more in taxes than the average person. This is counterintuitive because they have lower hourly wages, but because they work at much higher rates (the blue line), they end up with higher per capita incomes (the gray line) and pay more in taxes than their share of the population predicts (the dotted line). Thus, immigrants have been better at generating revenue for the government than the average person.

Are their tax revenues overwhelmed by the costs they impose? Here’s everything the federal, state, and local governments spent money on over the last 30 years in per capita dollar amounts. Immigrants did not create significantly higher costs for any items and saved the government enormously in two areas: old-age benefits and education costs.

Immigrants cost less as retirees: First, the savings on old-age benefits are not because immigrants are significantly less likely to retire. Instead, it is because they are far less likely to receive a government pension, since they were less likely to have government jobs and thus less likely to receive expensive government pensions. The main reason, though, is that they were simply barred from applying for Social Security and Medicare because they either arrived too late in life to earn the necessary qualifying work history, or they are here illegally or in a temporary status and ineligible for that reason.

Immigrants cost schools less: Immigrants arrive in the United States at the average age of about 25, meaning that the United States gets workers without having to pay to educate them. Even though they are more costly when in school—due to bilingual education needs—they are much less costly overall because they are so much less likely to be in school. The result is that immigrants cost the US education system about half as much as the US-born population.

Immigrants aren’t big welfare users. The savings on education aren’t lost in the welfare state. Immigrants are much more likely to be in poverty but use roughly an average amount of what we call “needs-based” assistance. That includes traditional welfare, food assistance, Medicaid, refundable tax credits, and unemployment insurance. The entire reason for this disconnect between poverty rates and welfare use rates is that many immigrants are here illegally and so are ineligible to apply for welfare in most states. This conclusion, that immigrants use welfare at the same rate as the US-born population, matches the Trump administration’s conclusion in 2018.

Here is the full picture of spending and taxes for immigrants from 1994 to 2023. Immigrants—legal and illegal—paid more in taxes every single year than they received in benefits, broadly defined, and the gap has grown over time.

Immigrants Don’t Cause Deficits

Here’s another way to look at our main conclusion. Immigrants accounted for 14 percent of tax revenue and 7 percent of government spending from 1994 to 2023. Even if the government had not spent a dollar on immigrants, while somehow still getting all their tax revenue, the US government at all levels would still have run a $20 trillion deficit. Immigrants are not to blame for government deficits. Indeed, they reduced the deficit by about $14.5 trillion.

We use the highest-quality data available for this report and the best methods for this type of analysis. Although there are undoubtedly methodological finer points that can be debated, these broad conclusions are inescapable:

1. The average additional person is fiscally positive because pure public goods are such a big portion of the budget.

2. Immigrants generate more tax revenue. Immigrants’ employment rates are well documented. The correlation between income and taxes is well established.

3. Immigrants use fewer benefits. The effects of status-based limits on welfare and entitlements are clearly apparent in numerous data sources. The savings from education are indisputable, as immigrants are less likely to be enrolled in school.

Since these effects are not driven by the absence of immigrant retirees, we shouldn’t expect our conclusion to reverse after tracking a specific cohort of immigrants over time. Indeed, when we do follow the cohort that entered from 1990 to 1993, we find that after three decades, the cohort was still paying far more in taxes than they received in benefits, and that the fiscal gains had grown over time. In total, this cohort reduced the deficit by $1.7 trillion.

Our paper also concludes:

• Without the contributions of immigrants, public debt at all levels would already be above 200 percent of US GDP—nearly twice the 2023 level and a threshold some analysts believe would trigger a debt crisis.
• Even low-skilled immigrants—those without bachelor’s degrees—reduced the debt by $2.8 trillion.
• Immigrants in all categories of educational attainment, including high school dropouts, lowered the ratio of deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) during the 30-year period.
• Illegal immigrants likely reduced the deficit by at least $1.7 trillion.
• Even including the second generation, who are mostly still children who will become taxpayers soon, the fiscal effect of immigration was positive every year, reducing the debt by $7.9 trillion.

Table: Fiscal flows and GDP effect by citizenship and education, cumulative, 1994–2023 

Concluding Thoughts

Overall, the main conclusion of our paper is that there is nothing systematically wrong with US immigration policy regarding the fiscal effects of immigrants. There is nothing unsustainable about the US immigration system. We could have scaled immigration as it existed without burdening government budgets. For years, nativists in Congress and the administration have wrongly claimed that immigrants are behind the growth in debt and that the US immigration system allows foreigners to take advantage of Americans’ generosity. Our data completely repudiates this view. Immigrants are subsidizing the US government.

The best way to balance the budget is to reduce spending—particularly on wealthy retirees—but rather than hinder our efforts to control deficits, immigrants are helping.

You can read the entire study here: Immigrants’ Recent Effects on Government Budgets: 1994–2023

Today's Belle

Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers are pretty bad - again.

All 5 categories are down - the lowest they've been since 2014.

Overall confidence has been under 80 for a full year, with only 15.6% of the people expecting the economy to improve in the next 6 months.

Latest Press Release
Updated: Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, surpassing pandemic depths

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 9.7 points in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. A 5.1-point upward revision to December’s reading of the Index resulted in a slight increase last month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—dropped by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was January 16, 2026.

- more -

GOLDEN AGE MY ASS

Jessica

• Trump's tariffs have cost every American household $1,100.00
• Wage-earners are getting a smaller portion of GDP than they have since 1947, when we first started tracking it
• Under Trump - for 8 straight months since his tariffs started - we've lost manufacturing jobs - every fucking month
• In 2025, a total of 584,000 new jobs have been added (the lowest since the Great Recession), which is almost a million jobs below what we need to stay even
• 94% of the costs of Trump tariffs have been paid by American companies, who are passing that shit on to us - have you checked your shrinkflation lately?
• US food prices are up 19% since 2022
• Energy prices are going up for normal people, but not for the big data centers

Today's Rich

K-Shaped Vibe-cession

The good old 401k and IRA are rollin' along singin' a song.

And that alone would generally tell us things are OK, but we've learned over the last several years that good-looking markets for stocks and bonds aren't really a solidly accurate gauge for how most people are actually doing.

If you had some money to get into the markets in the first place, then it's not so bad, but the picture is pretty bleak for practically anybody pulling down less than $100-200K, which is about 80% of the American workforce.

Home-sellers outnumber home-buyers by a margin that's either bigger than ever, or bigger than it's been in 30 or 40 years.

And all of this controversy and argument over what numbers are more accurate can be laid directly at the feet of "President" Trump.

Nothing is as it seems - except of course that Trump is lying to us.

GDP 'Nowhere Near' 4.3%: Rosenberg Dismisses Q3 Report As 'Fugazi,' Pegs Real Growth At 0.8%

While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a robust 4.3% annual increase in third-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) on Tuesday, economist David Rosenberg is calling the headline number a “fugazi.”

The ‘Fugazi’ Factor

The president of Rosenberg Research argues that underlying economic weakness is being masked by government spending and depleted savings, calculating “true” growth at a meager 0.8%.

The official BEA release shows widespread gains, with real GDP accelerating from 3.8% in the second quarter to 4.3% in the third. The increase was driven primarily by consumer spending, exports, and government spending.

However, Rosenberg contends these figures are misleading. “If you think the CPI data was manipulated, so was today's GDP report,” Rosenberg stated on X.

He argues that once government spending, shifting import data, and a “sharp drawdown” in the personal savings rate are stripped away, the economy is barely expanding. He specifically points to “flat personal disposable income growth” as a critical red flag contradicting the apparent consumption boom.

Clash Of Narratives: Weakness Vs. Overheating

The report has sparked fierce debate among analysts interpreting the same data through vastly different lenses. While Rosenberg sees a hollow economy propped up by unsustainable spending, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research sees a terrifying nominal boom.

Johnson highlights that nominal GDP (growth before adjusting for inflation) surged 8.2%, accompanied by a GDP price index reading of 3.8%—far hotter than the Fed’s target.

“Nominal growth in the U.S. is >8%… yet 10yr yields are AT JUST 4.17%?” Johnson questioned, arguing that the Federal Reserve's current easing cycle is “encouraging EVEN MORE inflation” in an economy that is overheating, not cooling.

Inside The Q3 GDP Numbers

The official data support elements of both bearish views. The BEA confirmed that imports, which subtract from GDP, decreased, artificially boosting the headline number.

Meanwhile, the price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 3.4%, up from 2.0% in the previous quarter, lending credence to Johnson's inflation fears.

As markets digest the report, investors are left with a stark choice: believe the headline strength, Rosenberg's “fugazi” weakness, or Johnson's inflationary fire.

Food Is Life

20,000 independent American farmers will go broke this year - and that probably won't change next year. Or the next.

Hawk

This is not winning.

Think Outloud

Operative Concept:

MAGA voters are willing to go down with the ship as long as they're convinced someone they don't like is going to drown faster and harder.

People keep telling me not to take it out on the MAGA voters, but I'm not hearing a good explanation for how these people continue to buy into the bullshit when better information and - you know, factual reality - are both in their faces every fucking day.

Year-To-Date, AI accounts for 40% of GDP growth, and 80% of the stock market rise.

Expertise is not Elitism

Education is not Brainwashing

Warnings are not Fear Tactics

Today's Belle

• Revenue dollars are up
• Unit volumes are down
• 12,000 people laid off in the last 5 weeks in Shipping, Warehousing, and Manufacturing

We're buying less, it's costing us more, and fewer people are working.

Pretty sure this is what the Analysts and Business Insiders call

"Heading in the wrong fucking direction"

On The Farm

It's always good news and bad news.

• If the harvest yield is high, then the prices are low
• If the prices are high, then the harvest yield is low

BTW, Trump has changed the rules, so the big players can get busy squeezing out the little guys.

Today's Belle

Gaslighting is all they've got now.

Notice how the Trump gang dismisses the ranchers' complaints, telling them they should be grateful their product is selling at a high price, and that they should be helping consumers by lowering their prices.

Classic abuser.

How It's Going

It's been going on for a few years.

IMO it was kept going because CEOs discovered they could blame COVID, and Biden, and supply chain problems, etc, and never adjust their prices back down to reflect lower costs once the upward pressure caused by the crisis du jour began to ease.

And now we've got people turning to GoFundMe and Payday Loans to make their rent and buy groceries.

GoFundMe CEO says more people seeking help with basic needs like groceries, rent

Platform CEO notes trend spans multiple countries despite easing inflation in recent years.
Jaqueline Benitez, who depends on California's SNAP benefits to help pay for food, shops for groceries at a supermarket

More people are turning to the popular fundraising website GoFundMe for help with basic necessities like groceries, rent and utility bills, according to the platform's CEO.

Tim Cadogan said Monday on the Opening Bid Unfiltered podcast that users are increasingly seeking assistance for essential needs including car payments and other bills.

"We're seeing that more and more," Cadogan said.

The trend extends beyond the United States to many Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, which include much of North America, Western Europe and East Asia, according to Cadogan.

This pattern has increased over the last three years, even as inflation figures have eased in the U.S. during that time, Cadogan said.

The consumer price index shows costs for the ordinary American increased 2.9% in the 12-month period ending in August. September figures have been delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.

However, in the four years since August 2021, prices for goods and services in the U.S. increased 18%.

Cadogan noted that in 2024, there was a 6% increase in the amount of money raised by GoFundMe for campaigns. The overall number of donors actually declined during that period.

With potential cuts in government programs, Cadogan sees an opportunity for services like GoFundMe to help fill gaps in assistance.

"As you see this shift in maybe governments doing less, we think there's a real opportunity to help increase that percentage, specifically in the U.S.," Cadogan said.

Today's Belle

The Trumplefucks refuse to tell us the numbers on the American economy - because they know it's practically nothing but bad news.

But business has to have those numbers in order to make their plans. So they gather the basic data themselves, and it's getting ugly.

In the first half of 2025, GDP growth was 0.1%, and without the AI bubble to drive things, it'd probably be way lower.

Everything Trump touches turns to shit.

Housing Trouble

It's not 100% of course, but a slow-down in building permits generally portends a recession.

A major drop in permits, plus both inflation and unemployment ticking up, plus the Buffett Indicator being over 200% - taken together, how we stay out of a bad hole is difficult to figure.

US single-family housing starts near 2-1/2-year lows as inventory bloat weighs

• Single-family housing starts drop 7.0% in August
• Permits for future single-family home building fall 2.2%
• Fed's rate cuts may not revive housing market amid job concerns

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding plunged to a near 2-1/2-year low in August amid a glut of unsold new houses, suggesting the housing market could remain an economic headwind this quarter.

The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed permits for future single-family home construction dropped last month to the lowest level in more than two years. Some economists said the decline was necessary to manage new housing inventory, currently near levels last seen in late 2007.

"Builders have been plagued with excessive new home inventories for going on about 18 months now," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
"They have made a few half-hearted and ineffective stabs at slowing construction activity, but persistent hopes that homebuyer demand would perk up have been repeatedly dashed. It is past time that builders bite the bullet and cut back on the number of homes they are starting to get inventories under control."

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 7.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 890,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. That was the lowest level since April 2023.

Groundbreaking for single-family housing projects tumbled 17.0% in the densely populated South, where economists said most of the over-building had occurred amid a labor market boom. But the region has experienced a significant decline in job openings this year. Homebuilding rose in the Northeast, Midwest and West.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more decreased 11.0% to a rate of 403,000 units. This multifamily housing segment is extremely volatile. Overall housing starts dropped 8.5% to a rate of 1.307 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a rate of 1.365 million units. Economists hoped a recent sharp decline in mortgage rates in anticipation of the Federal Reserve resuming its interest rate cutting cycle would revive the housing market.
Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt, we're not out of the woods yet.

The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point to a 4.00%-4.25% range on Wednesday and projected a steady pace of reductions for the rest of 2025 to help the struggling labor market. The Fed paused its policy easing cycle in January because of uncertainty over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs.

THE HOUSING MARKET IS IN A SLUMP

The housing market has been in a prolonged slump following the Fed's aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. The relief from easing mortgage rates is, however, likely to be limited by tepid job gains and rising unemployment as companies hold off on hiring because of an uncertain economic outlook.

Falling new house prices and shortages of construction workers as the Trump administration rounds up undocumented immigrants could also constrain homebuilding.

The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage has dropped to an 11-month low of 6.35% last week from around 7.04% in mid-January, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
Permits for future single-family homebuilding decreased 2.2% to a rate of 856,000 units, the lowest level since March 2023. Single-family building permits dropped in the South, Northeast and West. They rose in the Midwest.

A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among homebuilders remained subdued in September, though expectations for higher sales over the next six months improved. Builders are increasingly cutting prices and offering other incentives to reduce the inventory bloat.

The number of single-family houses approved for construction that were yet to be started slipped 1.5% to 133,000 units. The completions rate for that housing segment surged 6.7% to 1.090 million. The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 2.1% to a rate of 611,000 units, the lowest level since January 2021.

Building permits for multi-family housing units plunged 6.7% to a rate of 403,000 units. Overall building permits decreased 3.7% to a rate of 1.312 million units, the lowest level since May 2020. Residential construction contracted in the first half of the year and is expected to again subtract from gross domestic product in the third quarter.

"Consumers' low confidence and heightened concerns about job security represent ongoing headwinds to demand," said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect residential investment to remain a drag on GDP growth at least until mid-2026."

The Hammer Is Falling

There's a substantial reckoning coming our way. And I think it'll be the result of a combination of a shitty Stagflation-type economy, and a very fractured political structure, which gives us a population knowing they need to fight somebody for something, but unable to figure out how to get together, much less who they should be trying to get together to fight - and what they're supposed to be fighting for.

It's a clusterfuck, stuck inside a FUBAR, trapped in a burning dumpster, rolling downhill towards a cliff - with the lid welded shut.

Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession

A growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans, according to a recent survey.

The national average FICO score dropped by two points this year, the most since 2009, according to data released Tuesday by the analytics company.

Although credit scores remain significantly higher than during the Great Recession, they are down for the second year in a row. FICO found a growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans.

Younger Americans, exposed to the double whammy of high student debt and low entry-level hiring, are under even more financial pressure.

Gen Z borrowers experienced an average credit score drop of three points — the biggest decline of any age group since 2020 during the pandemic, according to FICO.

The findings underscore the growing disconnect between the euphoria on Wall Street and pessimism on Main Street. While US stocks continue to shatter record highs, a significant chunk of Americans say they are hurting.

“We’ve seen a K-shaped economy where those with wealth tied to stock market portfolios and rising home values are doing well and others are struggling with high rates and affordability problems,” Tommy Lee, senior director at FICO, told CNN.

Mounting financial stress

Average credit scores fell sharply after the 2008 financial crisis, as unemployment skyrocketed and millions of Americans could not make their mortgage payments and defaulted on their auto loans.

Credit scores increased each year from 2013 to 2024, when they dropped by a single point, according to FICO.

But FICO found that delinquency rates on auto loans, credit cards and personal loans are at or near their highest levels since 2009.

These delinquency rates are “more consistent with an economy in recession than one still in expansion,” FICO said, adding that mortgage and home equity loan delinquency rates are still near historic lows.

FICO found that 14% of Gen Zers have had a large credit score decline of 50 points or more in the past year — more than any other year and double the decline of 2021.

Student debt hobbles Gen Z

At least some of this pressure on younger Americans is linked to student debt.

Following a Covid-era pause, student loan delinquencies were not reported on credit files until February. The Department of Education restarted collecting federal student loans in default in May.

This shift disproportionately impacts Gen Zers because about one in three (34%) of them have open student loans, double the national at large, according to FICO.

Between February and April, 6.1 million consumers had a student loan delinquency added to their credit file, according to FICO. That means the student loan delinquency rate has climbed to a record high of 29% among the 21 million borrowers with a student debt payment due.

Another 1.9 million consumers haven’t had a delinquency reported even though they have student debt payments due and haven’t made payments.

The impact of these late student debt payments is amplified by the fact that Gen Zers often don’t have the long history of making credit payments that feed into credit scores. That makes their credit scores vulnerable to more volatility, both up and down.

‘Drastic hit’ to credit score

Another problem: Younger Americans are also contending with the most difficult job market in years for new college graduates.

Dimitri Tsolakis, 22, said he applied to hundreds of jobs after graduating from American University in 2024 with a degree in international relations.

It took Tsolakis 14 months to finally land a full-time job, or at least one that wasn’t a scam. But the job he did get, as a secretary at a law firm in Orlando, called for a dramatic cut to his income relative to his prior work as a server.

“My credit score took a drastic hit because I had to compromise and take a job where I’m severely underpaid,” Tsolakis told CNN in a phone interview.

Tsolakis owes $35,000 in student debt but has had to pause repayments to focus on making his car payments and paying for other living expenses.

He’s hardly alone in skipping payments.

About one in five (19%) of consumers say they paid less or skipped bills to get by in the past year, according to a July survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. That’s up from 17% a year earlier.

Even more consumers (47%) said they cut discretionary spending in the past year, while 23% said they reduced essential spending.

FICO found that 64% of Gen Z and 61% of Millennials with student loans rely on credit cards, buy-now-pay-later loans or personal loans to bridge financial gaps.

Taking on a second job

Sue Murphy, a nurse in Philadelphia, took a parent-PLUS loan to help fund her daughter’s college education. The $70,000 in student debt requires monthly payments of just over $500.

To make ends meet, Murphy took on a second job, making her schedule 12 days on and one day off.

“It almost feels like it doesn’t pay to be an honest hardworking citizen in this country anymore,” Murphy said.

The plan had been to make 10 years of payments and then have the balance of the student debt forgiven because Murphy works at Temple Health in Philadelphia, a nonprofit medical system that qualifies for public service loan forgiveness.

However, Murphy now fears the student debt won’t qualify for forgiveness because of rule changes proposed by the Trump administration.

At the order of the White House, the Education Department has proposed amending the definition of employers that qualify for loan forgiveness by excluding employers involved in “illegal activities.”

“The Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program exists to serve American heroes like teachers, police officers, and firefighters — not individuals or employers engaged in illegal activities that harm Americans,” Ellen Keast, deputy press secretary at the Education Department, said in a statement to CNN. “The Department has no business subsidizing the employees who work for organizations that break the law by mutilating and maiming healthy children or aiding and abetting illegal immigration and terrorism.”

Murphy said she makes her payments on time so her credit score hasn’t gone down drastically but her high debt-to-income ratio doesn’t help matters.

“I will go into retirement with student debt,” Murphy said.