Slouching Towards Oblivion

Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Joe's Alright

I've never been a Joe Biden fan. He's fucked up a fair number of times on some issues that his human instincts gave way to his political calculations. That said, I think he's a good and decent man, and he's been a really good POTUS so far.

And that said - Robert Hur is a complete dick, and a waste of otherwise perfectly good cytoplasm.



Opinion
The special counsel was unfair to Biden and his transcript proves it

Special counsel Robert K. Hur was even more unfair to President Biden than we originally knew.


When Hur released his report on Biden’s mishandling of classified documents last month, his extensive characterization of the president as “a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” came in for sharp criticism as gratuitous and beyond the bounds of proper prosecutorial commentary.

We now have the transcript of the president’s interview with Hur, and, to my astonishment, it’s worse than that. It turns out that the special counsel mischaracterized and overstated Biden’s alleged memory lapses. He consistently adopted an interpretation that is as uncharitable and damaging to Biden as possible.

Gratuitous is bad enough. This was gratuitous and misleading.

This isn’t to say that Biden’s performance was perfect, or anywhere close. He’s always had a penchant for mangling facts, and I don’t doubt that has worsened with age. After the Hur report was released, Biden blasted the special counsel for having brought up the painful topic of his son Beau’s death. “How in the hell dare he raise that?” the president asked. “Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself, it wasn’t any of their damn business.”

In fact, the transcript shows, Biden was the one who first mentioned the timing of Beau’s death.

“So what was happening, though — what month did Beau die? Oh, God, May 30?”

Two aides chime in with the year, 2015.

Then, according to the transcript:

President Biden: Was it 2015 he had died?

Unidentified male speaker: It was May of 2015.

Contrast this with the damning account in Hur’s report: “He did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died.”

During his testimony on Tuesday before the House Judiciary Committee, Hur defended his conduct. “My assessment in the report about the relevance of the president’s memory was necessary and accurate and fair,” he said. “I did not sanitize my explanation, nor did I disparage the president unfairly.”

Well, that “even within several years” characterization seems unfair to me.

And it’s not the only example. Hur’s report also notes that Biden’s “memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him. Among other things, he mistakenly said he ‘had a real difference’ of opinion with General Karl Eikenberry, when, in fact, Eikenberry was an ally whom Mr. Biden cited approvingly in his Thanksgiving memo to President Biden.”

But the totality of Biden’s references to Eikenberry, who was U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan in 2009, when then-Vice President Biden was lobbying President Barack Obama not to send more troops to the country, presents a less definitive — and less damning — picture of Biden’s memory.

The first time Eikenberry comes up is during a discussion of the troop surge. Obama “knew I had a real difference with the key foreign policy types, particularly — whether it was Eikenberry or whether it was — anyway,” Biden said. Did Biden merely say Eikenberry when he was thinking of someone else — or was he misremembering the position of a key player in the Afghanistan debate?

Of relevance in determining that, Biden returned to the topic of Eikenberry’s position later in the deposition — and then he stated it correctly. He described telling the president, “You know, ‘I had a long conversation with Eikenberry, yes, I urge you to call him before you make a decision. Karl can speak for himself and he has eloquently in some of his cables, let me relay just a few things. Adding troops will not speed up the ability to train Afghans because …’ etc. So these are criticisms of the proposal that was being made to the president by, by others in the administration wanting him to double down.”

Somehow, this later, more flattering recollection, didn’t make it into Hur’s report.

It’s always hard to judge a witness from the words of a cold transcript. Hur was in the room, and he left with a clear impression of what he considered Biden’s “diminished faculties in advancing age.”

I read the transcript from the perspective of someone who’s watched Biden — and watched him stumble over his words — for decades now, and I came away with a different impression. Yes, there are numerous instances in which the president appears unnervingly clueless. “If it was 2013 — when did I stop being vice president?” he asked at one point. At another, “In 2009, am I still vice president?” To me, this is, at least in part, Biden being Biden — working through out loud what the rest of us do silently.

Hur is entitled to his own interpretation, and it’s relevant, as he explained on Tuesday, to his assessment of how a jury would assess Biden’s conduct. Hur said he needed to “show his work” in explaining his decision not to pursue charges.

But the special counsel well understood that his report to Attorney General Merrick Garland would be made public — and he understood, or should have, the political fallout that would result from his scorching assessment of Biden.

So, he had a dual responsibility here, and he failed twice. First, he went beyond, far beyond, what was necessary to outline his concerns about Biden’s memory, and how that would impact any case against him. Second, as we just learned, his recitation of the facts was one-sided.

“Necessary and accurate and fair,” Hur said. I’d say he was zero for three.

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Scorecard

Nikki Haley lost in South Carolina yesterday, but it wasn't the rout that Trump has been blustering about for weeks.

And some interesting numbers are emerging.
  • Haley got 40% of the votes
  • 60% of her voters say they won't vote for Trump if he's the nominee
  • 60% of 40% is 25%
  • 25% of Haley's share of the SC vote is 75,000
  • Rough guess - taken countrywide, 3½ million GOP votes won't go to Trump
If we get a pretty fair turnout again this year, and if the split is roughly consistent across all the states, Trump will lose by 10,000,000 in the popular vote, and the electoral college could be something like 360-178.

And it could be a lot worse for him if he gets convicted of just about anything.

But, goddammit ...
DON'T GET COCKY
GET TOGETHER
GET TO WORK
GET SHIT DONE


Ramble Stander: a grandstander who frequently gets a little mixed up, doesn't recognize it, and just keeps talking. (a bit like Gish Gallop)



And this clip isn't of great import, but if you notice, Haley keeps giving victory speeches even as she acknowledges that she lost.

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Go Joe Go

Biden's doing great - which is kinda hard for me to say because I've never been a Joe Biden fan.


Friday, February 02, 2024

30 Things



30 Things Joe Biden Did as President You Might Have Missed

Joe Biden has been president now for three years, and you might think you’ve heard everything there is to know about his presidency.

You probably haven’t.

Most of the work of government doesn’t go viral on social media or become fodder for TV talking heads. Every president’s administration makes changes both significant and trivial that largely escape the public’s attention — yet many have long-lasting impact.

So we asked POLITICO’s newsroom, including the reporters who track the minutiae of government policy, to tell us about the major but under-the-radar changes made so far during Biden’s tenure that most of us might have missed. And there was a lot, from building drone armies to making birth control pills available in drug stores to lowering overdraft fees and loosening restrictions on marijuana. His administration even made a big decision on the colors for Air Force One, the president’s official aircraft.

Here’s what they said. (And if you’re curious, here’s a similar list we compiled for Donald Trump’s presidency.)

LABOR
Expanded overtime guarantees for millions
President Barack Obama late in his second term oversaw a regulation that called for workers making up to $47,476 to be automatically entitled to time-and-a-half overtime pay. The move infuriated businesses and Republicans, who sought to block the rule in both Congress and the courts. Donald Trump’s election and a Texas judge’s ruling in 2016 led the Labor Department to revisit the matter and set a significantly lower threshold of $35,568.

The move: Biden’s Department of Labor reopened the issue and proposed a rule at the end of August that would push up that cutoff by nearly $20,000 — to $55,000. The draft regulation, which still needs to be finalized, would also include a mechanism to automatically adjust that level every three years by yoking it to the 35th percentile of annual income.

The impact: The proposed rule would pave the way for roughly 3.6 million additional workers to be eligible for time-and-a-half overtime pay than were eligible under the 2019 policy, according to the Labor Department. It stands to be one of the most concrete policies to boost workers’ wages under Biden’s term, as other ambitious proposals like raising the minimum wage have been bottled up in Congress.

The upshot: The Biden administration is aiming to finalize the rule in April, but the agency will have to figure out a way to defend it against legal arguments similar to the ones that stymied the similar Obama rule. Additionally, any internal delays could expose the regulation to being later overturned by lawmakers using the Congressional Review Act, a tool that was successfully used in recent years to undo rules issued under both Obama and Trump.
-- Nick Niedzwiadek

HEALTH CARE
First over-the-counter birth control pill to hit U.S. stores in 2024
The push to make an oral contraceptive available without a prescription predates Biden’s presidency. But the issue took on fresh urgency when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, particularly as conservatives openly questioned the legal precedent establishing the right to privacy for birth control access. Within weeks of the ruling, a contraceptive maker, which had spent more than six years studying consumers’ ability to use the product correctly without a doctor’s supervision, applied to the FDA for over-the-counter approval.

The move: Despite concerns from FDA scientists about consumers’ comprehension of the drug’s proper use and risks, in July 2023 the agency endorsed making the pill available over the counter.

The impact: CVS and Walgreens, two of the country’s biggest retail pharmacies, have pledged to carry the contraceptive, called Opill, once it’s available in early 2024. Reproductive rights advocates say an OTC oral contraceptive will help make birth control access more equitable by reaching people who can’t afford or easily visit a health care provider for a prescription.

The upshot: Opill’s success will come down to its retail price and whether public and private insurers opt to cover it. The Affordable Care Act requires most private health plans to cover contraception at no cost to consumers, but insurers generally don’t cover OTC medications unless they’re prescribed. Advocates for greater contraception access say those policies create a barrier for the uninsured, teenagers and people of color. But mandating no cost-sharing could create challenges at the point of sale for pharmacists and insurance plans. The Biden administration is considering requiring no-cost coverage of OTC items like Opill without a prescription by most commercial plans.
-- Lauren Gardner

SCHOOL SAFETY
Gun violence prevention and gun safety get a boost
After the 2022 massacre of 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, the Biden administration called for stricter gun legislation. Uvalde spurred the first significant gun safety law in 30 years, which Biden signed in June of 2022, and the president took further action on his own.

The move: Biden established the Office of Gun Violence Prevention, and in 2023 schools were awarded $286 million in federal dollars to support student wellness and school mental health professionals.

The impact: Biden proclaimed that kids’ safety from gun violence is “on the ballot” when he announced the creation of the new office — and that proclamation has seeped into official White House business and his reelection campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead on mobilizing young Americans concerned about gun violence, visiting schools around the nation and touting new money awarded from the gun safety bill.

The upshot: Schools will continue to receive millions of dollars over the next five years to address youth mental health and student wellness as the remaining cash from the legislation’s $1 billion in funding is distributed.
-- Mackenzie Wilkes

CLIMATE
Renewable power is the No. 2 source of electricity in the U.S. — and climbing
Biden entered the White House putting climate change and job creation from the expansion of a clean energy economy at the top of his agenda — an about-face from energy policy during the Trump administration. At the time, renewable energy sources were already on the rise and the industry was optimistic about its future, especially buoyed by promises from the new president to invest trillions of dollars into clean energy development and research, and the global trend toward cleaner forms of power.

The move: Across the Biden administration, agencies and officials have made the transition to green energy a central tenet, reinvigorating programs left dormant under Trump and accelerating approval of renewable energy projects, like offshore wind. And Democratic lawmakers passed landmark legislation — the Inflation Reduction Act — to reduce greenhouse gases that are driving climate change and provide support for green power sources. That legislation included billions for new programs and lucrative tax incentives to boost technologies, like solar and wind, as well as next-generation sources like green hydrogen.

The impact: Renewable energy growth has ramped up across the United States. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources — including wind, solar and hydropower — surpassed coal-fired generation in the electric power sector for the first time in 2022, making it the second-biggest source behind natural gas generation. Renewables also passed nuclear power generation for the first time in 2021 and widened that gap the next year. The IRA also spurring a wave of private sector investment in U.S. clean energy manufacturing facilities for solar, wind and electric vehicle parts, the majority of which will be located in Republican congressional districts represented by lawmakers who voted against the bill.

The upshot: The Biden administration is continuing to roll out policies and programs focused on the energy transition, including detailing provisions under the Inflation Reduction Act that will help clarify the law so that new investments in the U.S. can move forward.
-- Kelsey Tamborrino

HOUSING
Preventing discriminatory mortgage lending
In 1977, Congress passed a law to combat a practice known as redlining, where for decades the government had discouraged lenders from extending mortgage loans to borrowers in Black neighborhoods. The law requires banks to lend to creditworthy lower-income people in the same neighborhoods where they have branches that take deposits. But the growth of the internet and mobile banking have made those rules increasingly obsolete. Banks, in effect, had a major presence in many neighborhoods where they had no branches.

The move: The Federal Reserve and its fellow independent bank regulators drafted a new anti-redlining framework, which will go into effect starting in January 2026. It requires banks to lend to lower-income communities in areas where they have a concentration of mortgage and small-business loans, rather than just where they have physical branches.

The impact: While the update hasn’t taken effect yet, the hope is that it will quickly begin to direct more dollars into areas where banks haven’t previously faced obligations to lend more equitably.

The upshot: Financial agencies are still trying to figure out the best way to ensure access to credit within poorer communities nearly 50 years after the Community Reinvestment Act was passed. Indeed, the racial homeownership gap is actually wider now than it was in 1968, when redlining was still legal.
-- Victoria Guida

CONSUMER BANKING
A sweeping crackdown on “junk fees” and overdraft charges
Biden touted his campaign to eliminate so-called junk fees — the hidden charges that often come as a surprise to the consumer, taking aim at the fees levied by airlines, cable companies, concert ticket-sellers and hotels, among other businesses. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2022 launched an initiative to expand the crackdown to target financial fees, training its scrutiny in particular on credit card late charges and the insufficient-fund fees that banks impose.

The move: The CFPB in January released a long-awaited proposal to cut the fees that large banks and credit unions can charge consumers for overdrawing their accounts. The proposal would allow banks to charge fees to cover the cost and losses associated with courtesy overdrafts — either a “breakeven” fee based on the bank’s own calculation or a benchmark fee — both of which would be lower than the punitive $30 or $40 fees that many banks impose now. The CFPB proposed several options for the benchmark fee, ranging from $3 to $14. The agency is also expected to finalize a proposal cutting credit card late fees to $8.

The impact: The CFPB expects its overdraft rule to save consumers up to $3.5 billion a year. While large banks have already dramatically pared back overdraft fees in recent years, they remain a source of significant income for many smaller banks and the financial services industry is gearing up for a major fight over the proposed rule. Lenders argue that unlike hidden resort or concert charges, the fees they impose are disclosed and serve a purpose by deterring poor financial behavior.

The upshot: Republicans have already pushed back on the proposals, arguing they will reduce access to credit and raise the cost of banking for all consumers, including those who make prompt credit card payments and don’t overdraw their bank accounts. A GOP administration would likely try to roll back both rules.
-- Katy O’Donnell

WALL STREET
Forcing Chinese companies to open their books
Since the Enron and WorldCom scandals, the U.S. has allowed companies to publicly list their stocks only if they agree to let federal watchdogs review their auditors’ work. Yet for years, Beijing authorities, citing national security concerns, refused to allow U.S. inspectors to examine the books of China- and Hong Kong-based companies. Biden’s regulators finally forced their hand with the help of Congress and even former President Donald Trump.

The move: Washington negotiators secured a landmark deal in August 2022 that would give American inspectors at the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the top U.S. accounting watchdog, unprecedented access to the audits of Chinese and Hong Kong-based firms trading on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The deal was reached after passage of a 2020 bill, which Trump signed into law in his administration’s waning days, that would have given the noncompliant companies the boot if they didn’t acquiesce.

The impact: China has held up its end of the deal. Four months after the agreement, the PCAOB confirmed it was able to fully review the Chinese companies’ audits. The inspections eventually resulted in $7.9 million in fines and sanctions against three China-based firms and four individuals. SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whose agency oversees the PCAOB, has touted the deal as a success that has better protected American investors.

The upshot: Whether China’s cooperation continues is still a concern for U.S. regulators — and will likely linger no matter who is president come 2025. Trump’s first time in office paved the way for the eventual deal struck by Biden’s regulators, suggesting that the SEC and PCAOB will probably keep the pressure on Beijing.
-- Declan Harty

ELECTIONS
Preventing another Jan. 6
Trump and his supporters caused chaos throughout the certification of the 2020 election in Congress, pushing slates of “fake electors,” pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence to toss out the votes from legitimate electors, and even after the counting of electoral votes was interrupted by insurrectionists, pro-Trump Republicans in both chambers voted to object to the results. When it was over, there was a sense that the holes in our election certification process needed to be plugged.

The move: A bipartisan group in Congress worked to reform the Electoral Count Act, a byzantine 19th century law that governs how Electoral College votes are tallied. The changes include making clear that the vice president’s role is “solely ministerial,” requiring that electors in states are picked “in accordance with the laws of the State enacted prior to election day” and raising the threshold for how many members of Congress are needed to object to a state’s slate. The act also allows for the “apparent successful candidate” to more easily receive funding from the government to build a transition office, after Trump officials dragged their feet for weeks in providing the funds Biden needed for his transition work.

The impact: The law will make it harder for Trump, or any other presidential candidate, to pressure state and local election officials — or Congress — to overturn elections.

The upshot: The Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act did address significant weaknesses that Trump exploited in his last-gasp attempts to hold on to power. However, Biden had committed to passing broader voting rights legislation to forestall other types of election misdeeds and fell short. His administration went all-in on passing various iterations of a bill that would have dramatically remade American elections, but those efforts were rebuffed in the Senate by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) who refused to gut the filibuster to do so. Meanwhile, Republicans were furious after Biden accused them of presiding over “Jim Crow in the 21st century.”
-- Zach Montellaro

DEFENSE
Building armies of drones to counter China
Defense officials have for years talked about how drones will play a central role in future wars, but other than fiddling at the margins, little has been done to build a large, AI-enabled network of military uncrewed vehicles. The worry in Washington has been that Beijing is ahead of the United States in developing the military use of drones and its growing drone fleets could swarm and confuse the radars and air defenses of U.S. warships, and critical bases in Guam and Japan.

The move: Biden’s Pentagon unveiled the Replicator program, an effort to build thousands of relatively cheap and quickly replaceable drones that can work together to attack, swarm and bedevil enemy defenses. The goal is to have the drones up and flying within two years. The program, which Pentagon officials say is more reliant on AI software installed on existing drones than actually buying new systems, would be a game-changer for the normally slow, risk-averse Pentagon procurement bureaucracy.

The impact: Once implemented, the U.S. would potentially be positioned to assume real leadership in uncrewed and AI-enabled technology, an area where it has always been strong but where other countries have started moving faster.

The upshot: Tech firms and lawmakers still want more specifics on how this is all supposed to work. But if things go as planned, the success of the program would be a major win for the White House, which has been eager to display American technological and industrial might.
-- Paul McLeary

CLIMATE
The nation’s farms get big bucks to go “climate-smart”
Agriculture produces about 10 percent of U.S. carbon emissions, and it’s been a priority of Biden’s climate plan to nudge the nation’s farmers and ranchers toward greener, less carbon-intensive ways of producing food.

The move: The Democrats used their marquee climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, to authorize funding to jump-start the transition of American agriculture toward less carbon-intensive practices. In total, the IRA aims to spend roughly $20 billion on climate smart agriculture over the next eight years, and will also target $300 million to develop more reliable and accurate standards for measuring, monitoring, reporting and verifying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in agriculture.

The impact: The money will bankroll farmers’ transition to practices the USDA deems climate-smart, like planting cover crops, reducing tilling and rotating cattle grazing zones, all of which can reduce and sequester emissions of atmosphere-warming carbon, nitrous oxide and methane.

The upshot: Biden’s climate agenda for agriculture relies heavily on a voluntary transition prodded along by large-scale incentives like the ones found in the IRA. The approach has been highly popular with farm groups, who prefer incentive-based approaches over punitive regulations. However, some climate advocates are skeptical of the program’s real potential to reduce emissions; once the USDA develops clearer measuring standards, both climate advocates and investors looking to green their supply chains may be granted more certainty. Meanwhile, the IRA money faces a more existential threat from congressional Republicans who hope to tap some of it to fund other priorities in the next farm bill, which is slated to be reauthorized later this year.
-- Garrett Downs

AIR FORCE ONE
Biden scraps Trump’s paint scheme for Air Force One
Trump got personally involved in negotiations for Boeing’s Air Force One replacement soon after he took office, bragging on Twitter that he had successfully reduced the price of the contract with Boeing by “over $1 billion.” Soon after, Boeing agreed to a $3.9 billion contract with the Air Force stipulating the company would be responsible for any cost overruns on the planes. But Trump’s involvement in the project didn’t stop there. In 2019, he told ABC News he wanted a new red, white and blue paint scheme, which bore a striking resemblance to his private 757. When Biden took office, he was faced with a decision on whether to keep Trump’s paint scheme, or go back to the traditional colors.

The move: Biden opted not to go with Trump’s darker paint scheme, after a study showed it could drive up the cost of the planes, POLITICO scooped in June 2022.

The impact: Biden got to scrap a personal Trump project, while taking credit for saving taxpayer dollars. It’s also one less headache for Boeing to worry about. Trump’s plan called for dark blue paint covering the plane’s underbelly and engines, which could have contributed to excessive temperatures on the aircraft — so the company would have had to pay out-of-pocket for the extra cooling costs.

The upshot: The new Air Force One fleet, when it arrives later this decade, will keep its iconic JFK-era light blue-and-white look.
-- Lara Seligman

ENVIRONMENT
The Biden administration helps broker a deal to save the Colorado River
Climate change and decades of overuse have shrunk the Colorado River and are forcing the seven states that use the river to negotiate how to divvy up cuts or risk it going dry. At stake is the water for 40 million people from Wyoming to the U.S.-Mexico border as well as powerhouse farming operations that irrigate some of the country’s most productive farmland.

The move: The Bureau of Reclamation, led by a Biden appointee, issued an ultimatum last summer, when reservoir levels were careening toward crisis points, and put legal teeth behind a threat to intervene unilaterally. That forced recalcitrant negotiators to the table. The Biden administration and Congress also successfully muscled through a $4 billion pot of money to help pay for conservation efforts.

The impact: Last spring, the states agreed to a short-term deal to head off the crisis for a couple years, a pact sweetened by the federal cash. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton has been on a PR spree across the West to promote the administration’s deals with water agencies in key swing states like Arizona.

The upshot: Negotiators are now starting to figure out what to do after the deal runs out in 2026. They face a spring deadline to agree on how to share the Colorado River’s dwindling flows over the next 20 years. But the federal government will not likely face any big decisions until after the presidential election.
-- Camille von Kaenel

AGRICULTURE
Giving smaller food producers a boost
Soaring food prices and supply chain crunches for meat and other staples during the Covid-19 pandemic drew attention to the highly consolidated agriculture sector, in which key sectors like meatpacking are dominated by a handful of “Big Ag” behemoths. Biden entered office promising to crack down on food monopolies and support small and midsize U.S. farmers, whose numbers have cratered in recent decades.

The move: In 2021, Biden signed an executive order directing agencies across the government to promote competition and take on monopolies. That included reviving a set of USDA regulations, first proposed during the Obama administration, to promote fairness and increase transparency in meat and poultry markets. In addition, legislation negotiated by the Biden administration is providing billions for rural communities, including at least $1 billion to help small and midsize meatpackers compete in a highly consolidated market. The laws also provide millions in debt relief for farmers who have faced discrimination, funded record increases in farm conservation efforts and boosted programs that help shorten supply chains, directing food from local farms to nearby schools and food banks.

The impact: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack’s stump speech outlines a vision for bolstering rural economies by promoting two “companion” systems for producing food: small producers who have multiple revenue streams from high-value products, conservation practices and local buyers, and larger producers who earn money from exports and efficiency. Billions of dollars have now gone toward building this vision. USDA has also introduced new regulations to bolster organic markets and build transparency for consumers, which supporters say will help American farmers command premium prices.

The upshot: Despite record government money pouring into rural communities, critics say the Biden administration has not turned things around for small farmers. For one, USDA has yet to propose a key regulation intended to make agriculture markets more competitive. If it isn’t finalized soon — and a Republican president takes power — some farmers fear that much of the Biden administration’s anti-monopoly legacy in the agriculture sector could be temporary.
-- Marcia Brown

CANNABIS
Biden recommends loosening federal restrictions on marijuana
Since the Nixon administration, marijuana has been classified in federal law in the same category as LSD and heroin — drugs categorized as having a high propensity for addiction and no known medical value. In October 2022, as more and more states have moved to legalize cannabis, Biden issued an executive order directing the Department of Health and Human Services to conduct a review of all available cannabis science and recommend whether the classification of marijuana should be changed.

The move: HHS issued its recommendation in August 2023 that marijuana should be moved from the most prohibitive level on the Controlled Substances Act (Schedule I) to a middle category (Schedule III). Schedule III drugs — which include ketamine and testosterone — have “moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” It’s now up to the Drug Enforcement Administration to make a final determination about the proper classification of cannabis, with a decision expected sometime in 2024.

The impact: A move to Schedule III would be the biggest change in U.S. drug policy in more than half a century. It would make marijuana much easier for researchers to study — which could give politicians and regulators a better idea of how best to write laws concerning cannabis. It would also lift arduous tax burdens on the cannabis industry that apply only to the more severe Schedule I and II drug categories. If that tax burden is lifted, there is a strong possibility the struggling weed industry suddenly would see its financial prospects brighten. Changing the classification of cannabis, however, would not have any impact on federal illegality.

The upshot: Despite more and more states legalizing and regulating cannabis in recent years, federal law has remained unaltered for decades. A reschedule of cannabis would be a seismic shift in America’s drug laws, changing the perception of the drug, the trajectory of the industry and the potential for Congress to act in the future.
-- Natalie Fertig

EDUCATION
A penalty for college programs that trap students in debt
For decades, the federal government has gone back and forth on the best way to solve the problem of workers who struggle to earn a living after graduating from the country’s for-profit colleges or career training programs. The Obama administration first laid out specific metrics requiring schools who want access to a lucrative stream of government funds to prove that its graduates are prepared for “gainful employment” and don’t end up with lots of student debt relative to their income. But Obama’s team never fully implemented its rules after lengthy legal fights. The Trump administration eventually scrapped the effort. Then Biden won office, and revived Obama’s plan — with a twist.

The move: Starting in July 2024, career training programs could lose federal funding if their graduates leave with lots of student debt relative to their earnings — or if the typical graduate earns roughly less than $25,000. A similar concept would also apply to many colleges and universities that receive federal aid: Schools would have to warn students if they fail Biden’s new debt and earnings metrics — though only low-rated career programs would face a loss of funding.

The impact: The Education Department has estimated that nearly 1,700 programs would fail to meet the administration’s new standards. Another 400 graduate programs at nonprofit and public universities would also be forced to notify their students that they failed. More than 800,000 students are collectively enrolled in these programs. The department also estimates the policy will save federal taxpayers nearly $14 billion over the next decade by reducing defaults on federally backed student loans.

The upshot: Cosmetology schools, truck-driving programs and top-flight graduate institutions could soon be held publicly accountable for how their students fare in the workforce. But angry conservatives and for-profit colleges despise this looming Biden administration policy, and could launch a legal challenge to stop the rule from taking effect.
-- Juan Perez Jr.

TECHNOLOGY
Biden moves to bring microchip production home
The Covid pandemic sharpened bipartisan fears in Washington about U.S. reliance on microchips produced overseas — primarily in China or Taiwan. As factories shut down in Asia and supply chains snarled, U.S. automakers and other manufacturers were unable to get the chips they needed, idling their plants and spiking prices for cars and other goods. That led the Biden administration and lawmakers from both parties to consider policies to bring production of the most advanced microchips back to the U.S.

The move: The administration and a bipartisan group of lawmakers coalesced around legislation that became known as the CHIPS and Science Act, which offered more than $50 billion to subsidize the construction of new microchip facilities in the U.S. and boost research and development across a series of national research facilities. After two years of debate, lawmakers passed it in July 2022 with solid bipartisan majorities. It was a remarkable endorsement of industrial policy — government support for selected industries — that U.S. lawmakers had largely shunned for decades.

The impact: The expectation of new subsidies has led major chipmakers to announce plans for new semiconductor plants in the U.S. — like an Intel campus near Columbus, Ohio, and a facility from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC in Arizona. More than a dozen new tech research hubs are also planned based on the CHIPS Act’s funding. And the administration recently announced its first actual CHIPS Act grant — $35 million to defense contractor BAE to expand a facility that supplies Air Force fighter jets.

The upshot: The CHIPS Act was a landmark move for Biden’s new industrial policies that sought to decrease U.S. reliance on China and boost manufacturing at home. Its passage showed that lawmakers in both parties are now willing to spend huge sums to ensure the manufacturing of essential goods like microchips happens in the U.S. — and certainly not in China. The administration is set to continue rolling out CHIPS Act grants in 2024 in an attempt to gain electoral advantage from the subsidy package. But it remains to be seen if the effects of the law — like new jobs from plants coming online — will come quickly enough to be felt by voters in swing states.
-- Gavin Bade

TRADE
Tech firms face new international restrictions on data and privacy
The rapid growth of e-commerce in recent decades has been accompanied by an increase in digital trade barriers. Those include requirements for companies to store their data in the country where it is collected or to hand over their source code to a joint venture partner in order to do business in a particular market. Until now, the United States has been a leading voice on the international stage pushing back against such provisions, which it argued not only hurt big tech companies but small and medium-size companies that increasingly rely on the internet to do business.

The move: With the support of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and some other progressive Democrats, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative withdrew longtime bipartisan positions on data flows and source code in digital trade talks among 90 members of the World Trade Organization. The Biden administration said withdrawing the proposals would allow “policy space” for Congress, as well as other WTO members, to legislate and regulate in the tech space without bumping into trade commitments.

The impact: The move represents a significant shift in the U.S. stance on global tech policy as the motives and actions of big tech companies come under increasing scrutiny. Key members of Congress, including the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Finance Committee and the House Digital Trade Caucus, harshly criticized the move, which they said would hurt U.S. competitiveness and give China and Russia more scope to craft harmful digital trade rules. It also signaled a broader retreat on the issues in U.S.-led trade talks, including the administration’s proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with 13 other countries in the region.

The upshot: The decision aligns the Biden administration’s trade policy with its antitrust actions against big U.S. tech firms. However, it also has triggered a debate that could play out in future administrations over whether the U.S. will continue to defend the interests of its own domestic tech industry in foreign markets as part of future trade agreements.
-- Doug Palmer

AFRICA
Preventing a cobalt crisis in Congo
Rebels in eastern Congo and the Congolese army have been fighting since the 1990s. The fighting escalated in 2022 as Rwanda-backed rebels, known as M23, invaded and took over several villages. The violence escalated further last summer when M23 moved closer to the area near Goma, one of the largest cities in the region. A war between Congo and Rwanda would not only be a humanitarian disaster, but it would upend the administration’s efforts to get into the cobalt market — a key component for electric vehicle batteries. Congo is home to about 70 percent of the world’s cobalt reserves, and China, one of Washington’s biggest trade competitors, is its main producer and is supporting M23 with drones.

The move: The president dispatched one of his top intelligence officials to the region last year to broker a pause in fighting. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines met with the presidents of Congo and Rwanda and laid out a plan for deescalation, including that Rwanda move its military back from the frontlines and Congo ground its drones. Leaders agreed to the broad strokes of the deal.

The impact: Hostilities continue but have quieted some, despite a national election last year that was marred by logistical problems.

The upshot: A direct conflict between Rwanda and Congo would likely spill over into other countries in the region and would also force the U.S. into an indirect confrontation with China at a time when Washington is trying to reset relations with Beijing.
-- Erin Banco

CYBERSECURITY
Cracking down on cyberattacks
During Biden’s first six months in office, government agencies and critical companies were beset by cyberattacks. These incidents included the SolarWinds hack, which involved Russian government hackers infiltrating around a dozen agencies for at least a year. Ransomware attacks were also a major source of concern, with the administration forced to reckon with Colonial Pipeline, the source of almost half of the East Coast’s fuel supply, shutting down operations in May 2021. In the years since, cybersecurity concerns have only increased, including a Chinese-linked breach last year that impacted email accounts at the Commerce and State departments, skyrocketing new vulnerabilities opened up by the use of artificial intelligence technologies, and new geopolitical-linked targeting of critical systems.

The move: In March 2023, the White House released a national cyber strategy, the first since 2018. The strategy has five pillars including strengthening international cyber diplomacy efforts, securing emerging critical technologies and taking more aggressive steps to disrupt hacking groups. The strategy also made clear that the Biden administration intends to take a strong approach to issuing new regulations for critical sectors, for example health care or electricity.

The impact: The strategy outlined the goals and established a path for the federal government to reduce the threat of cyberattacks; when paired with an implementation plan for the strategy released in July, there are now firm agenda items for enhancing security.

The upshot: While cyberattacks have not slowed down since the release of the strategy, the federal government now has a solid road map for the years to come on how to respond to attacks. However, if Biden is not reelected next year, a new administration may seek to change the goals of the strategy, or even put out a new one.
-- Maggie Miller

INDO-PACIFIC
Countering China with a new alliance between Japan and South Korea
South Korea and Japan have a mutual antipathy that goes back decades, linked to Japan’s brutal colonial rule of Korea from 1910-1945 as well as long-simmering territorial disputes in the East China Sea. That has fueled such acrimony in South Korea that until relatively recently public opinion polls in the country have rated Japanese leaders only slightly more popular than North Korea’s.

The move: Biden devoted significant diplomatic capital to courting both Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol with an eye to easing that mutual hostility. Those efforts allowed Biden to broker the first-ever trilateral summit between the three countries aimed at unifying the two countries in an alliance implicitly aimed at countering China’s rising diplomatic, economic and military power in the Indo-Pacific.

The impact: Japan and South Korea committed to allying against China using a language of cooperation that would have been impossible just two years ago. The two countries have aligned their foreign policies and agreed to a significant expansion of bilateral security cooperation to offset China’s perceived regional threat. The two countries have also committed to defense spending increases aimed at addressing Beijing’s dramatic expansion of its military forces.

The upshot: Biden’s diplomacy has — for now at least — created a narrative for regional support for his “rules-based international order” that has persuaded two key allies that border China to transition from reflexive hostility to (fragile) harmony.
-- Phelim Kine

HEALTH CARE
Reinvigorating cancer research to lower death rates
As vice president, Biden launched an accelerated cancer research effort that was known as the “cancer moonshot” after his son Beau died of brain cancer in 2015. In 2022, he reignited it as president. Biden set a lofty goal for Moonshot 2.0: reducing the cancer death rate by half over 25 years. A National Cancer Institute assessment last year found that’s within the realm of possibility — if scientists and public health officials find ways to drive down cancer rates faster and develop new treatments and testing tools.

The move: The White House has announced dozens of federal and private moonshot programs, including several that rely on the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health, an agency Biden created to take on high-risk, high-reward research. The White House has tasked ARPA-H with building a national clinical trial network and partnering with the National Institutes of Health and the National Cancer Institute to create a biomedical data toolbox for cancer research. ARPA-H is also putting an additional $240 million from its budget toward cancer-related research. Those commitments come on top of a series of cancer-related awards and programs ARPA-H funded last year, such as researching the use of bacteria to target tumor cells, developing an implant to better dose cancer medicine, harnessing mRNA technology and honing surgical tools.

The impact: Evaluating whether the new moonshot programs can make a dent in the cancer death rate will take time. However, the fruits from ARPA-H’s investment will come long before 2047. The agency’s mission is to pivot quickly if its research fails and to get innovative treatments and technologies to patients within years, not decades. In the meantime, the United States has made serious progress on cancer, with the death rate falling 33 percent over the past three decades.

The upshot: While cancer research has historically enjoyed bipartisan support, Republicans have proposed budget cuts for health agencies this year. Meanwhile, the moonshot’s original funding has run out and Congress has not authorized new funds.
-- Erin Schumaker

HEALTH CARE
Making medication more accessible through telemedicine
During the Covid public health emergency, the federal government took several steps to make it easier to access health care via telemedicine. Most of those measures have ended. But one of the regulations that Biden held in place allows many controlled substances like Adderall for ADHD treatment, testosterone for gender-affirming care and buprenorphine to treat opioid use disorder to be prescribed without first having an in-person visit. In-person-visit requirements have traditionally been used to prevent fraud and abuse.

The move: Ahead of the emergency’s end in May, the Drug Enforcement Administration proposed requiring that patients see a doctor in person after an initial 30-day supply of medication obtained virtually for buprenorphine, testosterone and ketamine for depression, and requiring in-person visits for Adderall to be prescribed. That sparked a firestorm of criticism from treatment advocates and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. The DEA has now extended the eased prescribing rules through the end of 2024. It plans to issue final regulations this year.

The impact: Treatment advocates say that prescribing addiction treatments via telehealth offers improved access to care, especially for hard-to-reach patients like those with opioid addiction, and removes barriers associated with travel. After several years, many patients have become accustomed to receiving such care virtually. But some startups have drawn DEA scrutiny after allegedly overprescribing powerful stimulants like Adderall.

The upshot: Telehealth has become a booming industry since the pandemic, with telehealth usage about 30 times higher than before the pandemic. The DEA says it hopes to balance expanding access to treatment with avoiding misuse.
-- Ben Leonard

LABOR
Union-busting gets riskier
Federal labor law has been essentially frozen since the Taft-Hartley Act passed over President Harry Truman’s veto in 1947, leaving Republicans and Democrats to engage in decadeslong trench warfare at the National Labor Relations Board to nudge legal precedents and enforcement standards in their preferred direction. The result has been an ever-escalating series of policy shifts when the balance of power in Washington flips from one party to the other that puts the fate of disputes between employers and workers in the balance.

The move: Soon after taking office, Biden ousted the Trump-appointed chief prosecutor at the NLRB and, with the help of Senate Democrats, installed union-friendly allies on the board who have adopted positions that boost workers in confrontations with businesses. In August, the Democratic board majority issued a landmark ruling known as the Cemex decision that puts a tight leash on employers in cases where agency officials determine they broke labor law during a union representation vote. It also shortened the timeline to bargaining in such cases, removing a previous standard that allowed for tainted union elections to be rerun.

The impact: The new framework significantly raises the risk that an employer could be hit with a bargaining order for even a single transgression if it interferes with an election. The NLRB also put the onus on employers to petition the agency for an election shortly after a majority of employees seek union representation — or be forced to bargain with the union without an election at all.

The upshot: The heightened threat of bargaining orders has already prompted employers to adapt to the new requirements and, combined with other pro-worker changes, emboldened unions seeking to organize workplaces by chipping away at management’s leverage. Biden styles himself the most labor-friendly president in history, and actions like the Cemex decision have given him a chance to demonstrate those bona fides. It’s something he’s sure to tout in his reelection campaign as he courts union members’ votes and stokes their political organizing skills.
-- Nick Niedzwiadek

TECHNOLOGY
Biden inks blueprint to fix 5G chaos
Biden inherited messy interagency fights jeopardizing U.S. leadership in 5G wireless technology, which imperiled the government’s ability to auction off valuable spectrum ranges used for commercial wireless technology. Agencies feuded over how to use different chunks of these airwaves during the Trump administration, often pitting the Federal Communications Commission against the Pentagon, Transportation Department and other departments who have their own increasing demands for spectrum to operate military radars, aviation equipment and other systems. These fights continued into Biden’s term, fueling anxiety over U.S. economic competitiveness and its ability to vie against global rivals like China, which is seeking to dominate the wireless ecosystem and subsidizing telecom giants like Huawei.

The move: The White House issued a national spectrum strategy and presidential memorandum, which created a system empowering both his Commerce Department and, when necessary, White House officials, to settle interagency spats. The administration says the strategy puts the U.S. on firmer global standing, particularly with new generations of technology like 6G wireless on the horizon, and sets goals for how the government allocates spectrum.

The impact: When fully implemented, the strategy aims to allocate more spectrum for the commercial sector, drive more R&D into spectrum technologies, lead to a better-equipped workforce and better allocate bandwidth for government agencies to use.

The upshot: Spectrum is a limited resource that’s never been more important to business and government, and Biden’s plan creates a system to better manage how government agencies and private industries compete for frequencies. But much will depend on how exactly the administration implements it, and those details won’t come out until later this year. Some Republicans are concerned the strategy doesn’t mandate the free-up of spectrum for the commercial sector but simply initiates studies into whether that would be possible — an issue that could drive a future Republican White House to take a more aggressive approach.
-- John Hendel

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Biden empowers federal agencies to monitor AI
Artificial intelligence has gone mainstream. As U.S. tech companies have raced to release shockingly powerful large language models, public reaction ran the gamut from rapture to horror. Policymakers from Washington to Beijing realized quickly that generative AI — and successive AI breakthroughs — would crown new market leaders, hand more decisions to machines, put cyberattacks on steroids and fundamentally alter people’s trust in what they see, read or hear. Biden has taken a keen interest in understanding the inner workings of large language models and how the U.S. could turn AI into a lasting economic advantage.

The move: Biden’s White House issued a highly technical but far-reaching AI executive order last year that surprised even close observers with its ambition. The order mobilizes a wide range of government powers to tackle the potential risks of AI, in areas from discrimination to national security. It also sets new guidelines for safety, including standards for new models and marking synthetic content.

The impact: Biden’s executive order starts the clock for more than a dozen federal agencies to figure out what the gold standard for “safe, secure and trustworthy” AI handling should be for their own operations — and in the case of the Commerce Department, for the private sector as well.

The upshot: The sprawling AI executive order sets the federal government up to keep tabs on tech companies who are developing highly capable AI models. The impending regulatory scrutiny is already chafing Washington’s tech lobby. Additionally, whether federal agencies will have the resources to execute the Biden administration’s ambitious vision for an AI-savvy public sector will depend heavily on whether Congress delivers on the president’s budget request.
-- Mohar Chatterjee

INFRASTRUCTURE
Fixing bridges, building tunnels and expanding broadband
Successive presidents tried for so many years to pass infrastructure legislation that it became a running joke in Washington. Maybe that’s one reason polls show that voters don’t know that Biden finally broke that logjam, and did it with support from lawmakers of both political parties. It was the kind of historic investment — following years of deferred needs — that previous presidents had tried and failed to achieve.

The move: In his first year as president, Biden clinched an infrastructure deal that opened the spigot for $1.2 trillion of investment into the nation’s roads, waterlines, broadband networks, airports and much more. Two years later, projects that had been languishing for years — like replacing a 110-year-old Amtrak tunnel that’s become a chokepoint into New York City or an outdated and congested bridge between Kentucky and Ohio — are finally moving forward.

The impact: Those projects will take years to complete. Of the 40,000-plus projects that have gotten underway since the law was signed, a very small handful have had ribbon-cuttings. The new Amtrak tunnel isn’t scheduled to open until 2035. The administration is putting signs on as many projects as possible declaring they were “funded by President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law” while they’re under construction, but that’s not the same as people connecting that money to things that improve their everyday life. Still, the law is having economic impact: The construction industry has added 670,000 jobs since Biden took office.

The upshot: Republicans say massive government spending in the infrastructure law and other big Biden bills are to blame for stoking inflation. But during this year’s political campaign season, both parties stand to benefit from taking credit, and voters may finally start hearing about it — from both sides.
-- Tanya Snyder

OIL
The U.S. is producing more oil than anytime in history
Biden came into office after having promised to slash oil production on public land. Canceling the Keystone XL pipeline during his first week in office seemed to confirm the image of him as a president who would happily throttle the country’s oil industry while showering the renewable energy industry with government dollars. But things turned out a little differently.

The move: Biden has been happy to use government largess to stimulate the renewables industry — but he’s also done little to check the short-term growth of oil. After the Covid-led economic downturn and Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a supply shock in the crude markets that drove U.S. gasoline prices up in 2022, the White House made an uneasy, but real, embrace of the oil industry to help bring down gasoline prices.

The impact: U.S. oil production is at record levels and is expected to go even higher next year. U.S. production is humming along at more than 13 million barrels per day and growing. That’s a gusher that’s topped levels that then-President Trump and GOP backers used to boast about. Exports are also on the rise as domestic fuel consumption has slowly come off the highs experienced a decade ago, meaning that every new barrel of oil produced in the United States is more likely to head overseas. Gasoline is now below $3 a gallon in many parts of the country.

The upshot: Demanding an “all of the above” policy that includes all forms of energy has become cliche among lawmakers. Under Biden, that may have become a reality few politicians will want to publicly discuss. Democrats don’t want to alienate their green backers on the left who’ve accused the administration of abandoning its climate focus, while Republicans are loath to admit that Biden’s oil boom is bigger than Trump’s.
-- Ben Lefebvre

CHINA
Strengthening military ties to Asian allies
Biden came into office with the goal of countering China by rebuilding military alliances with Asian allies. In late 2022, a top Pentagon official promised to accelerate that effort, vowing that “2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative year in U.S. force posture in the [Pacific] region in a generation.”

The move: The Biden administration inked new defense partnerships with the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, and deepened ties with India and Australia. The Pentagon also announced it would forward-deploy a Marine littoral regiment, an upgraded unit equipped with anti-ship missiles and advanced intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, in Okinawa, Japan. In addition, during his first year as president, Biden announced a new working group with Britain and Australia to support Canberra’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and share other advanced technologies, a pact now known as AUKUS.

The impact: All of the moves are aimed at building up the United States’ military partnerships in the Pacific — and countering China. The Pentagon said China is continuing to steadily expand its nuclear arsenal and could have 1,500 warheads by 2035, in addition to its growing fleet of warships and aircraft.

The upshot: The jury is still out on whether the administration has transformed the country’s posture in Asia, but DOD undeniably made some key moves that are sure to please partners in the region who worry about China’s mounting aggression.
-- Lara Seligman

CYBERSECURITY
A new agency to investigate cyberattacks
Organizations that fall victim to hacks often keep tight-lipped about what happened due to fear of legal liability or brand damage. But cybersecurity experts have long warned that the country will never break free from an endless cycle of computer breaches unless companies and government agencies become more transparent about how they got infiltrated. The danger was underscored in 2020 when a sophisticated Russian hack breached nine federal agencies.

The move: In 2021, Biden stood up the Cyber Safety Review Board, a government review panel charged with investigating the most significant computer security breaches that have affected the country. Just as the National Transportation Safety Board investigates transportation incidents, the new DHS-led panel is tasked with identifying the root cause of significant hacks and offering guidance to ensure they never happen again. The Board has 15 members hailing from both the private sector and the U.S. government.

The impact: The CSRB has received strong positive feedback from the cybersecurity industry for its first two investigations: one into a software vulnerability that had the government bracing for digital crisis and a second involving a group of hackers who developed a playbook to slip the defenses at some of the country’s highest profile companies, among them Uber and Microsoft. It’s unclear how much impact the board has really had, however, given that companies are not obligated to follow its guidance. It has also received criticism for appearing to avoid investigations that could make individual companies or the government look bad — a charge the CSRB denies.

The upshot: The Biden administration is hoping Congress will make the CSRB a permanent fixture of the federal government’s cybersecurity landscape. It has sent lawmakers draft legislation to codify the panel into law, enhance its budget and give it greater legal authorities to compel the production of evidence from breach victims. But Congress hasn’t yet acted, leaving the future of the board an open question.
-- John Sakellariadis

TRANSPORTATION
Making airlines pay up when flights are delayed or canceled
Never mind luxury travel, now some airline passengers pay extra just for the basics. But getting your money back when a flight gets canceled or significantly delayed is one effort the Biden’s administration’s Transportation Department has tried to address as part of a new tough stance on the airline industry, especially after multiple instances of air travel gone awry.

The move: The Department of Transportation has introduced a series of proposals to help strengthen consumer protections for airline passengers, including a requirement that airlines give a cash refund after a flight is canceled instead of providing vouchers for a future flight. This would also apply to flights canceled because of events outside the airline’s control such as weather. Other rules proposed during the Biden administration include giving passengers more clarity about fees added on to the price of a flight before purchasing a ticket, and urging airlines to seat families together without extra fees.

The impact: Some airlines have responded to the increasing pressure by proactively canceling overscheduled flights, building in more buffer room to better handle hiccups, making it easier for passengers to change their plans and committing to meal or hotel voucher plans. The Transportation Department also created a dashboard, acting as a consumer “cheat sheet” as a way to force airlines to answer directly exactly what services they offer — which customers can then compare — when a flight is canceled or delayed. Separately, DOT is investigating several airlines for potentially engaging in unrealistic scheduling practices that have led to cascading problems that impact travelers.

The upshot: The Biden administration has taken some significant steps to compensate passengers when flights get disrupted. But preventing those disruptions in the first place remains problematic.

Thursday, February 01, 2024

Today's Brando

These people think the NFL is totally rigged, but pro wrestling is real.

They think Biden is a loser, but a guy who's lost a dozen businesses, a half dozen elections in a row, and soon-to-be another 4 major court cases - he's a big-time winner.

Biden
beat
Trump


Monday, January 22, 2024

Today's Dr Bob

  • Worker-centered policies
  • Strong anti-monopoly enforcement
  • Bolstering labor unions

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Biden v Trump

More dishonest reporting at WaPo, merrily peddling the Both Sides bullshit.
  • "...political dysfunction in congress" is plainly the responsibility of MAGA Republicans who are trying to tear it all down. Inviting the inference that it's a Both-Sides problem is a lie.
  • "...deficit peaked under Trump, though both he and Biden have added trillions to the national debt." Are there any reasons you might wanna cite as to how those trillions got added to the debt? Say, for instance, Trump's TaxScam 2017®, vs Biden's application of Keynesian principles to keep us out of a full-blown  depression. Any of that sound familiar?
  • "...Americans appear downright despondent..." And of course, that can't possibly have anything to do with outright propaganda coming from wingnut media - plus the Press Poodles at WaPo failing us because their "journalism" is driven solely by profit instead of an honest pursuit of the facts, right?
You have to do better, WaPo. If you go on trying to placate authoritarians, and allow the forces of plutocracy to succeed, you will not be protected.

That said, they do come thru on the Student Loan point - but damn, it's like pullin' teeth to get these boneheads to brighten up a little. 

Fuckin' Press Poodles, man.



Biden’s economy vs. Trump’s in 12 charts

Both presidents tout their contributions on the U.S. economy ahead of the 2024 election. But how do they stack up?


The presidential election is less than a year away, and economic issues are once again top of mind for voters around the country.

Despite the economy’s rapid recovery from the pandemic, President Biden has struggled to convince Americans that his policies are improving their finances. In polls, the majority of Americans still say they trust former president Donald Trump’s handling of the economy over Biden’s.

Both presidents’ economic records have been defined by the pandemic and its aftershocks. The covid crisis upended the job market, stoked decades-high inflation and added trillions to the federal debt.

The economy today is vastly different than it was in 2017, when Trump took office. But the data shows just how each administration has left its mark: Biden, by adding 14 million jobs in less than three years, bringing the Black unemployment rate to a record low and reducing student loan debt by billions. Trump, meanwhile, presided over a period of low inflation, low interest rates and low gas prices.

Here are 12 charts showing the state of the economy now vs. under Trump.

1. Job gains


The astoundingly strong labor market is arguably the White House’s biggest victory. In some ways, the bump was inevitable — Biden took office at a time when millions were still out of work because of the pandemic. Even so, the rapid job gains in recent years have blown past economists’ expectations and have fueled the economy’s blockbuster growth.

Even more remarkable is that the labor market has remained strong, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the economy. As long as Americans are employed, they’ve been able to withstand inflation and keep spending, allowing the economy to grow.

Employers have created 14 million jobs during the Biden administration, with a monthly average of more than 400,000 positions. Recently, though, the pace of job creation has slowed, with 199,000 new jobs in November.

By contrast, the economy added an average 176,000 jobs a month during Trump’s first three years, before coronavirus-related closures and layoffs resulted in the sudden loss of more than 20 million jobs.

2. Unemployment rate


Aside from a covid-fueled surge in much of 2020 and 2021, the national unemployment rate has remained low through both Trump’s and Biden’s presidencies.

Joblessness fell during the Trump years to a half-century low of 3.5 percent in early 2020, just before the pandemic. During Biden’s presidency, the unemployment rate has inched down even further, to 3.4 percent earlier this year. It now stands at 3.7 percent.

The years-long pickup in hiring has been particularly good for workers who are typically underrepresented in the labor force. Unemployment rates for Hispanic workers, Black women and people with disabilities have all hit record lows under Biden’s watch.

The Black unemployment rate, which Trump liked to take credit for improving during his presidency, fell during both administrations, but reached an all-time low during the Biden era earlier this year.


3. Economic growth


For the most part, the U.S. economy has expanded at a steady pace under both Trump and Biden. Gross domestic product, a measure of all of the goods and services produced in the country, has grown about 22 percent since Biden took office. That’s compared with a 14 percent uptick during Trump’s presidency, when the pandemic forced the economy into a steep and sudden recession. Even so, the economy rebounded quickly — thanks in part to trillions in stimulus money — and was growing again by the time Trump left office.

Now, under Biden, the economy has notched five straight quarters of growth following a six-month slump last year. The latest expansion has been powered by heavy consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, and new infrastructure and green-energy projects spearheaded by the Biden administration. But economists note that the current rate of economic growth — an annualized rate of 5.2 percent, as of September — is unsustainable, and many expect growth to cool next year.

4. Gas prices


Presidents have very little control over gas prices. But this is one area where the Trump era was better for Americans — and could help explain some of the gloom Americans are feeling now.

Pandemic-related hiccups, the war in Ukraine and spikes in demand have all sent gas prices on a dizzying roller-coaster ride since 2020. Gas prices more than doubled between April 2020 and April 2022, from $1.84 a gallon to $4.11. They peaked at an all-time high of nearly $5 a gallon in June 2022 but have come down since. Analysts say prices gas prices could fall below $3 per gallon by the end of the year, thanks to a combination of increased production and slowing demand.

Gas prices have a direct effect on how Americans view the economy, and higher prices at the pump have translated to lingering pessimism for much of Biden’s presidency.

Pump shock: Why are gas prices so high?

5. Home prices


Homeownership is one of the biggest ways Americans create wealth, and the recent run-up in prices has been a double-edged sword: Many first-time home buyers been shut out of the market, but people who already own homes have benefited from soaring property values.

On the whole, though, homeownership has become far less accessible during the Biden administration. Home prices have surged during the pandemic, rising an eye-popping 49 percent between spring 2020 and fall 2022. Those higher costs have driven housing affordability to all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs. Homes are currently selling for a median price of $431,000 — less than the $480,000 they were commanding last year, but still well over pre-pandemic norms.

Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past two years — from about 3.1 percent to about 7 percent — making it that much pricier to purchase a home and putting a chill on the market. Prices, though, remain high because demand for homes continues to outpace supply.

6. Inflation


Inflation has been a persistent challenge for the Biden administration. A rapid run-up in prices after the pandemic resulted in the highest inflation in more than 40 years. Americans have been pinched by higher costs for just about everything, including groceries, gas, cars and health care.

Although inflation has recently come down from last summer’s peaks, prices are still about 3 percent higher than they were a year ago. Many Americans say higher costs have tainted their views of the economy, with voters consistently citing inflation as their top economic concern.

7. Interest rates


The president has very little power over interest rates. While the Federal Reserve’s chair and governors are appointed by the president and confirmed by Congress, the central bank operates independently.

But the Fed’s actions have a far-reaching impact on the economy. During Biden’s presidency, the central bank has raised interest rates 11 times as part of its effort to rein in inflation. The bank controls the federal funds target range — the interest rate banks use to lend money to each other overnight — which, at 5.25 to 5.5 percent, is at its highest level in 22 years.

Each time the Fed raises that rate, or even hints that it might, there are ripple effects across the economy, resulting in higher borrowing costs for loans of all types, including mortgages (currently at about 7 percent), personal loans (12 percent, according to Bankrate) and credit cards (above 20 percent).

8. Disposable income


Americans have less spending power than they did at the beginning of Biden’s term. A drop-off in stimulus money, plus rising prices, have caused large swings in household income since 2020. Still, many Americans are ending 2023 better off than they were a year ago, as wage gains outpace inflation.

During the Trump years, by comparison, Americans saw a steady increase in spending power until the start of the pandemic. Overall, real disposable income, or what Americans are left with after taxes and inflation, rose about 10 percent between January 2017 and January 2020.

9. Stock market


The stock market rose rapidly during Trump’s presidency and has continued its ascent under Biden. After a period of slowing last year — in anticipation of higher borrowing costs and increased volatility — stock prices have picked back up on optimism that the Fed is done raising interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq hit all-time highs this month, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 is on track to follow suit.

Trump kept a close eye on the stock market’s path during his presidency, often taking to social media to flaunt his successes. He also warned Americans that a Biden presidency would result in a “stock market collapse the likes of which you’ve never had.”

That has not happened — which the president was quick to note. “Good one, Donald,” Biden recently fired back on X.

10. Student loan debt


Outstanding student loan balances have been climbing for nearly two decades — until now.

Biden took office vowing to whittle down the debt burden on student and graduates. And while his most ambitious plans, including a $400 billion forgiveness plan, have been blocked by Republican lawmakers and the Supreme Court, his administration has found ways to offer relief.

To date, the White House has canceled some $132 billion in student loan debt for more than 3.6 million Americans. It has also increased federal Pell Grants to low- and middle-income students, allowing them to take on less debt. As a result, outstanding student loan balances have been falling for six months. Americans owed $1.74 trillion in student loans in October, down from a record $1.77 trillion at the beginning of the year.

11. Consumer sentiment


Despite the economy’s strength, Americans appear downright despondent when it comes to their finances during Biden’s tenure. Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level, ever, in June 2022, when gas prices were at a record high. Since then, sentiment has rebounded somewhat but remains lower than it was when Trump was president.

But although they say they feel crummy about the economy, Americans are continuing to spend heavily. That spending — on a range of goods and services, including cars, travel and dining out, has helped power the economy and keep it growing.

12. Federal deficit


The federal deficit peaked under Trump, though both he and Biden have added trillions to the national debt. The national deficit — or the gap between what the government brings in and what it spends — grew every year of Trump’s presidency. Sweeping tax cuts, followed by the government response to the pandemic, added an unprecedented $7.8 trillion to the country’s debt.

Since then, the deficit narrowed in the first two years of Biden’s presidency. But this year it grew again, by 23 percent, leaving the country with a $1.7 trillion shortfall.

That growing deficit, combined with political dysfunction in Congress, is setting off alarm bells for ratings agencies that track the United States’ financial standing. Fitch Ratings stripped the United States of its top AAA score in August. In November, Moody’s downgraded its outlook on U.S. sovereign debt, warning that “continued political polarization” threatens the country’s fiscal strength.