Oops

U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July

Key Points

• Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, falling by 23,000 amid a drop of 53,000 government jobs and softness in retail, leisure and hospitality, and slower-than-usual growth in healthcare.
• The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, but was due largely to a further decline in those holding jobs or looking for work.
• Worker pay was nearly flat in the month as well, with the 12-month increase in average hourly earnings slipping to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021.

The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared with a downwardly revised 20,000 for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had been looking for a gain of 83,000.

At the same time, the unemployment slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years, another indication that fewer Americans were working or looking for jobs.

In addition to the weak numbers for June and July, the final count for May was revised down to 63,000, or 66,000 lower than the prior estimate. The revised numbers brought the 12-month average down to just 34,000.

“The July employment report solidified that the labor market is not out of the woods quite yet,” said Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.

The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government education and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a fall of 14,000 and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000, a possible consequence of the World Cup tournament ending.

Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000. Construction also saw an increase of 22,000.

Private payrolls did increase for the month, up 30,000 as government jobs declined by 53,000.

While jobs held flat, worker pay also saw virtually no gain during the month. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month average down to 3.2%, below the forecast increase of 3.5% and the lowest since May 2021.

The report comes with Federal Reserve policymakers split on where interest rates should head in an economy where the labor market had been improving from a moribund year in 2025 while inflation has remained well above the central bank’s 2% target.

In recent days, several Fed officials have spoken in favor of raising rates as soon as September if the pace of price increases doesn’t ease. The Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark rate in place.

Following the jobs report, traders shifted their bets on when the Fed might hike. Odds for a move in September fell to 44% and to 58.3% for October, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures prices.

Stock market futures, meanwhile, posted solid gains amid the expectations for a more dovish Fed. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up close to 200 points and Treasury yields plummeted after being around the flatline earlier in the session.

“This morning’s report is a game changer in the sense that all of the recent focus has been on inflation and this report highlights the risks that are embedded in the labor market as well,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. “Before today, many were expecting that the Fed had no choice but to raise rates in order to fight stubbornly high inflation, because the job market was so strong, but this report shows that isn’t the case.”

Details of the report confirmed the weak headline numbers.

Household employment, which measures the total of people reporting that they are working and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, fell by 87,000. However, the unemployment rate declined because of a decrease of 264,000 in the labor force. Outside of the Covid era, the participation rate is at its lowest since the middle part of 1976.

“While the unemployment rate is falling, that is mostly for the wrong reason—not enough workers,” wrote Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. “Immigration compensated for the aging of the workforce in the first few years of the post-pandemic expansion, but that’s not happening anymore.”

The employment-to-population ratio fell again, slipping to 58.9% for its lowest level since May 2014. An alternative jobless measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.9%.

Aaron's Rundown

The Labor Department's Jobs Reports for May and were practically fabricated. What a surprise, right?

The economy did not add 260,000 jobs in those two months, as stated by The Bureau Of Labor Statistics. The real number was 34,000 new jobs for May and June - a net loss of over 250,000 jobs.

Amy Siskind

New for me today: ADP hiring report says 62,000 non-farm pay check jobs were added in April.

How that stacks up against what Trump's DOL has to say in a few days, we'll just have to see.

note: We need 120-130,000 new jobs every month to keep the ball rolling.

Could be interesting. I think we all know Trump isn't exactly above tinkering with the numbers, so if Labor reports a nice high (ie: made up) number, I hope the Dems are smart enough to play it against the usual Republican refrain: "Who ya gonna believe - private enterprise or da gubmint?"

Meanwhile,

This remains unconfirmed:

But how can we be sure it's not legit?

Fact Check

It's always hard to compare performances, but there are ways to weight and un-weight the stats to get a pretty fair analysis

This comparison seems to lean pretty hard towards the conclusion that Democrats are better at handling the economy.

You Don't Get One Without The Other

Zeeshan Aleem at Vox:

Democrats, not Donald Trump, are the real populists on trade in Washington. 

That’s the major takeaway from the Democrats’ bold new trade platform that they unveiled on Wednesday morning, the second rollout of their “Better Deal” messaging agenda in the runup to midterm elections in 2018. 

It's a collection of proposals aimed at protecting American workers from foreign competition — and it’s designed to edge out Trump's own messaging on how he's going to transform US trade to help bring back jobs to America.
The first 34 items on the 2016 Democratic Party Platform are all about helping everyday American Workin' Folk get a better chance to participate (to a slightly greater degree) in a system that actually fucking depends on their participation.

Don't gimme no shit about how the Dems fucked up by not addressing the problems of middle America.

If people missed it, then they weren't listening, cuz Hillary and Bernie and Tim all hit it plenty hard every time they stepped into the box last fall.

And maybe this had something to do with how we've been missing the point for 30 years:

The idea of evaluating foreign investment to ensure it doesn’t pose a threat to American jobs is bound to be incredibly controversial in Washington.

-snip-

That kind of scrutiny and interference with foreign investment would be unprecedented for the United States, says Edward Alden, a trade expert and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations. “The US has had a very open stance on foreign investment — it’s only restricted if it’s considered a national security threat,” he told me. (*)
'Scuse me, Mr Alden - the health of our economy kinda depends on Americans having jobs that pay them enough to live on, so it seems pretty important to ask, "When did you decide a fucked up US Economy was somehow disconnected from a threat to US National Security?"

Go Qualify Yourself

If you're dumb enough to be convinced that a guy will take your job when you're also convinced he can't even say, "I need a job" in English, then you're not the guy I want doin' that job.

Some Day

...maybe we'll all have something to look forward to besides more of the basic "same shit, new day".

And if you've got kids in college - well, just make sure they know how to change a tire and work a cash register.

Welcome To The Jungle

There was a "decent" jobs report that came out a day or two ago, and it indicated a bit of drop in the unemployment rate and some other fairly OK stuff, but the thing I remember most is that the majority of the 162,000 new jobs were Part-Time.  Yay us.

47% of American adults don't have a Full-Time job.

That ain't good, but hey - it gets worse.

Just Ask

WIllard has developed a habit in his stump speech of late - he keeps saying his plan for the economy will create 12 million new jobs right here at home.  He also continues to attack the lazy-ass 47% by saying he doesn't intend to add more people to the welfare roles, and go on giving everything away for nuthin' - he's gonna help you by giving you a great job and letting you keep the money you earn for working that job.  And that's very close to verbatim - "...give you a great job..."

I guess I'm wondering 2 basic things:

1. What are these 12 millions jobs?  What sector?  What businesses?  Who's gonna be doing the hiring?
2. What news organization is going to step up and actually ask Willard for these details?

We hear a lot that Willard has made the claim.  We hear a lot that Obama doesn't seem to have an answer for it.  We hear all kinds of shit about all kinds of shit, but these Press Poodles apparently have become totally allergic to Journalism.

Could somebody just stop him and ask him to spend a lousy 5 or 6 minutes explaining one fucking thing?  Please?

Obama's Gaffe

What does Obama mean when he says 'the private sector's doing fine"?  Where does he get off contradicting the Official GOP Narrative!?!

Oh wait - maybe this is what he was trying to tell us:

First, this is what The Private Sector looks like now - with jobs back up to about where they were Pre-Recession.

Now, here's Federal Jobs

And finally, All Gov't Jobs

Which part of Republicans-are-a-bunch-of-lyin'-sacks-of-shit are you having trouble understanding?

An Aha Moment

"Conservatives" will always argue against making any serious cuts in Defense Spending by trying to make it all about National Security.  They have to ignore the 6 million American jobs that are directly dependent on the Pentagon because of course, "gubmint don't create no jobs", so they have to rationalize the flat-out waste of things like F-22 and F-35, the B-1 and the B-2, and the maintenance of a Doomsday Capable nuclear arsenal etc etc etc.  Hey, ya just never know when them Rooskies might start feelin' peckish, so we need to be ready.

I have to admit, I've been a little reluctant to hack away at the military budget because of the those jobs.  I remember a few times when cutbacks put a lot of good people out of work and had a pretty bad ripple affect across the economy; and I remember thinking Reagan's huge deficits were OK because the gi-normous military buildup was really just a federal jobs program in disguise.

But guess what.  Turns out it was mostly bullshit.  Imagine that - somebody with a vested interest in keeping the money flowing telling me stories about jobs that weren't really true just to keep the money flowing.  Sometimes, my own ignorance and gullibility shocks even myself.

So here it is - a new look from The National Priorities Project, and The Project For Defense Alternatives

hat tip = Wonkette

Here's the PERI link

Here's the PDA link

Disclaimer: Everybody's playing an angle of some kind, but not all angles are equal.

The Jobs Bill

Obama asked the Senate to put aside their rancor for a moment in order to try something that might help get a coupla million Americans a little help finding work.  And the Senate replied: