There's A Heartbreak Coming

At about 24:52, the discussion comes around to AI, and Zeihan is less than enthusiastic about really getting something going before about 2040.

The problem seems to be all about a supply chain that's currently very fragile, and seeing as how the Houthis can disrupt global commerce by popping off a few anti-ship missiles once in a while, we've got significant problems protecting assets with a navy that's aging, and a population that's also aging - to the point where it's possible we just won't have enough sailors to carry the load.

So AI is making some headway, but unless they can solve both the manufacturing problems, and the problems of getting enough electrical juice to power the fuckin' thing, we're not looking at any kind of great leap forward. And with a little luck, we won't get the huge economic disruptions - beyond what the TechBros' egos will push them to do - in the next 15 or 20 years.

92

The fuckin' idiot we've got for a president has issued 92 separate tariff policies in the last 6 weeks.

And still the rubes are cheering. Because, apparently, they believe that if you throw a big enough tariff at somebody on Tuesday, manufacturing plants will magically materialize by the weekend - or in a few months - or weeks - or decades - or whatever.

"C'mon - he said there'd be some discomfort at first. The guy's a super genius. He's playing 37-dimension chess. Trust the plan."

None of it really matters, because Trump has created the chaos he always creates, which creates opportunities for his minions to go grubbing around, looking for some easy-pickin's in the rubble. Plus, he owns the news cycle for another day or two.

Everything is totally episodic. If today's show flops and creates a problem, no sweat - we'll just throw some different bullshit at 'em tomorrow.

In the meantime, guys with the money to spare are stockpiling things like cell phones and laptops.

So Far So Good

... but

a) don't count on the weather

b) don't count on ending the shit in Ukraine any time soon (it could happen, but don't count on it, cuz Russia will go on fucking with everything as long as Putin stays in place

Peter Zeihan

The French are being French, and this time, that's probably a good thing.

Today's Zeihan

Peter Zeihan observes the world, and while he's not glum, he's also not crazy about our longterm prospects.

Remember:

Geopolitics is a poker game with 200 players who're all cheating. They all know they're all cheating, and the fact that they all know they're all cheating helps them rationalize their cheating.

About That China Thing

I have to wonder if Xi's general discombobulation is one reason China continues to fuck with Taiwan.

Or maybe it's just that he's eliminated everybody who would advise him not to do stoopid things.