a) don't count on the weather
b) don't count on ending the shit in Ukraine any time soon (it could happen, but don't count on it, cuz Russia will go on fucking with everything as long as Putin stays in place
Geopolitics is a poker game with 200 players who're all cheating. They all know they're all cheating, and the fact that they all know they're all cheating helps them rationalize their cheating.