Mr Global

Cynical Mike says, when information is suppressed, it's almost a sure thing that somebody is benefiting from it.

Climate

Nature bats last.

Trump's Deal

Trump's amazing deal for 300K tons of Russian diesel will carry us for about 18 minutes.

All told, we get less than 2 hours of fuel spread over 3 months, while Putin gets the sanctions lifted so he can make billions that he'll use to kill Ukrainians.

Iran

I remember when the old analog gas pumps had to be re-jiggered to accommodate prices nobody thought would ever occur.

There are stories coming out now that the signs used by gas stations to advertise their prices have reached their max as the price goes over $10 a gallon in California.

This is bad, and it's gonna get worse.

Dirty Fuels

The numbers are getting scarier.

Today's Trump Scam Explained

The Deal Is Not A Deal

You know it's a lie because it's something Trump said.

Mr Global

The triple whammy:

• The Strait of Hormuz is closed
• The Bab el-Mandeb is closed
• Russia's main oil hub at Novorossiysk is closed

Some very important arteries of world trade - particularly, but not limited to, oil - are being strangled.

The ships can make it through the Suez Canal, but the canal is too shallow to accommodate the big ones, so they have to go half full or the shippers have to down size their boats.

Delivery to Asian customers will take an extra 40 days, and the shippers are sending half the volume to customers who aren't lowering their demand.

Again:

How is this not being leveraged by Democrats to push harder for a conversion away from The Dirty Fuels Cartel?

It's Coming

We've been drilling for oil for 160 years, and it's never been enough.

If Only

I've been wondering why I haven't heard much about how Trump's fuckup in Iran could be making for some very good reasons to push harder for wind and solar.

I asked Google's AI where we'd be if we'd stuck with renewables when we had the chance.

AI Overview

If the U.S. had kept its 1970s push for wind and solar, the nation could have "solved" its carbon footprint decades ago. America would have gained immense geopolitical power by ending reliance on foreign oil, and electricity would likely be a cheap, stable utility today.

In the 1970s, the U.S. faced severe oil shortages and gas lines. President Jimmy Carter treated this crisis like a war. He created renewable tax breaks, expanded early green energy research, and installed White House solar panels.

If the US had stayed on that path:

1. A different political and economic reality

In the 1980s, oil prices dropped. The U.S. shifted back to fossil fuels, and President Ronald Reagan removed the White House solar panels. If the US had stayed with wind and solar, it would have spent the last 50 years mastering clean tech instead of fighting endless wars to protect global oil routes. Everyday citizens would have been insulated from global gas price spikes.

2. Global leadership in green technology

During the 1970s, the U.S. led the world in developing early solar technology and modern wind power. When the U.S. cut funding in the 1980s, countries like Germany and Japan took American research and ran with it. If the U.S. had stayed the course, American companies would likely control the multi-trillion-dollar global green energy market today.

3. The climate crisis avoided

Today, about $1.4 trillion is spent globally each year on fossil fuel subsidies. If the U.S. had converted to wind and solar in the 1970s, greenhouse gas emissions would have plummeted decades ago. We would not face today's intense climate anxiety, and the aging US electric grid would have been modernized long ago.

Mr Global

A word about "we" being all manly macho, exporting all that oil.

Here It Comes

Would it be rude to mention the fact that we wouldn't be in this fucked up mess if we'd followed Jimmy Carter's lead 50 fuckin' years ago, and started to detach ourselves from the Dirty Fuels Cartel?

While it's not good now, it's not quite time to jump up and down in a total panic. But be advised - it could get really really really fuckin' bad in big fuckin' hurry.

Am I cussing too much? No, I am not.

Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks

Industry executives said the loss of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is draining petroleum inventories to dangerously low levels.

The oil industry is warning the Trump administration that a Hormuz-sized hole in the world’s petroleum market is steadily draining inventories to levels that are likely to send global energy prices surging in the next several weeks, according to four executives.

Industry executives have flagged the issue to senior White House officials and Cabinet members in recent weeks as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing dialogue with the U.S. energy industry, the people said. The warnings came as recently as late last month as data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other sources began showing that fuel makers were increasingly relying on oil and fuel from their storage tanks to replace products no longer arriving from the Middle East.

“We’re at dangerously low levels already,” said one industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with the administration. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June. … I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.”

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes three months ago, kicking off what has become the biggest disruption in crude oil flows ever. Countries are drawing down supplies in their oil and fuel storage tanks to make up for the shortage of supply coming from the Middle East, but inventories are now running dangerously low and some companies and market analysts are sounding the alarm that a price spike could come later this month.

Some of the conversations have been general warnings while others have focused on tight inventories of specific fuel types in particular locations, such as jet fuel on the West Coast, a second person involved in the conversations said.

A White House official denied that any senior members of staff have been warned privately by the industry about inventories. “Politico’s anonymous sources are wrong,” the official said.

An Energy Department official said that while the agency remains in regular dialogue with energy industry leaders, there have been “no such discussions” about inventories.

Executives from Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil companies are also raising the alarm publicly, warning last week that fuel prices are poised to jump if inventory levels continue their rapid decline. The U.S. average gasoline price was $4.26 a gallon Wednesday, according to AAA, $1.28 a gallon higher than before the war started, off the levels near $4.50 reached a few weeks ago.

Neil Chapman, Exxon’s senior vice president, told an investor conference last week that dated Brent — the benchmark for physical crude oil prices — could hit $150 or $160 a barrel soon in that scenario.

“You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up,” Chapman said.

“The administration has already been told that,” a second oil company executive told POLITICO of Chapman’s statement. The recent public pronouncements from industry executives are “a message for the consumer,” this person continued. “Don’t think that an open strait is going to mean your July 4 gasoline bill isn’t going to be higher than what it is today. It’s going to be.”

The White House is closely watching the oil and fuel supply levels, said another person who is in touch with the administration on energy policy and who was granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

U.S. crude stocks held by companies fell by 8 million barrels last week, the eighth straight weekly decrease, and are now 3 percent below the five-year average, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. The government also released 8 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, bringing it near the low hit in July 2023 after the Biden administration tapped the supply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Trump administration has pointed to record-high U.S. oil production — along with new supplies unlocked in Venezuela and through the Jones Act waiver that allows foreign-flagged ships to make deliveries between U.S. ports — as protecting American motorists from spiking prices. It has promised that the eventual opening of the Strait of Hormuz would bring costs back to levels seen in February — or lower.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “President Trump will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, and he will continue to advance America’s core national security interests.”

The United States “is in an excellent position. We’re in a position of strength” when it comes to Iran, White House National Energy Dominance Council Executive Director Jarrod Agen said during a webinar with consulting firm Widehall on Wednesday. “We do not have a supply problem, obviously.”

Rich Goldberg, former senior counselor for the National Energy Dominance Council, said the White House is “aware that there is a discussion” about the inventories issue and should be examining closely whether global stocks can outlast Iran’s ability to cope with the ongoing U.S. blockade on its oil exports.

“The whole strategy rides on whose timeline is longer, who has a longer runway, and so therefore, if I were in the White House, I’d be studying this very closely,” said Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Goldberg added that some industry officials disagree that a price shock is imminent and expect markets will be able to adapt through a combination of alternative supplies and reduced demand. “I don’t personally know where the White House comes out on it,” he said.

Many market analysts have expressed surprise that oil prices have not reached even higher levels because of the three-month shipping disruption. Early in the conflict, some forecasters predicted prices would go as high as $200 a barrel given that 20 percent of global oil flows through Hormuz. Iran’s attacks on ships in Hormuz has slowed that flow to a trickle, although some crude is being diverted out of the region using pipelines.

“What’s been remarkable is that prices have not moved higher so far, and a big reason for that is the inventory cushion around the world,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy. “But that can’t go on forever.”

The stoppage has caused other impacts in the U.S. markets: Not only have global crude prices gone up as supply from the Middle East dries up, but countries are also increasingly buying American oil and fuel to make up for the loss.

Gasoline stocks are 5 percent lower than the five-year average, and diesel and jet fuel are 3 percent under that mark, according to EIA data. Overall, total U.S. commercial petroleum inventories — including crude oil and finished fuel — are down 52 million barrels from when the war began.

The U.S. SPR release is part of a 400-million barrel effort by members of the International Energy Agency to prevent prices from skyrocketing.

Even with those barrels coming into the market, global petroleum inventories have been falling by roughly 5.8 million barrels a day since the war began, according to Burkhard.

Worldwide stocks now hold around 7.5 billion barrels — a decline of about 500 million barrels from the start of the war. But most of that oil already has buyers and is not being held in reserve, Burkhard said, and inventories in some regions may be hitting or soon to hit operational minimums, he said.

“I’ve never seen inventory numbers fall so much so quickly,” he said. “It is stunning.”

The oil markets have been sensitive to comments from President Donald Trump and retreated last week after he said that a peace deal with Tehran was near that would return shipping traffic to prewar levels. But his remarks Wednesday that the U.S. blockade of the Hormuz could last until Labor Day have raised questions about whether oil tanker traffic out of the Middle East will approach anything near normal levels this summer.

Drained storage tanks are an “iceberg under the water,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said during a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday.

“You may not see immediately on the horizon the actual economic challenges that will be coming, because you look at the flat price and you say, ‘OK, we can muddle through this and Iran will come to terms eventually,’” Croft said. “But if we get in a situation where we have this strait effectively closed, or the strait status quo, and we’re sitting in September or October, then you’re going to be looking at industrial shortages.”

It's Not Getting Better

Momentary "relief" is not what it seems.

It'll get better after it gets a whole lot worse. We've prob'ly got another year or two of what could be some really bad shit.

The battlefield is still not about missiles and bombs.

Mr Global

This is not a government - it's a trading desk with cruise missiles.

Mr Global

The law of Supply-n-Demand is a harsh mistress.

The Oil

The Stoopid-Fuck-in-Chief continues to fuck up his fuckup - because he's too much of a fuckup to know what a fuckup he is.

Dunning-Kruger is a real thing.

A Reminder

In 1979, Jimmy Carter had solar panels installed on the roof of the White House.

In 1986, Ronald Reagan had them removed.

If we'd listened to Carter, and continued to follow his lead, we wouldn't have to worry about the Strait of Hormuz.

Republicans, on behalf of The Dirty Fuels Cartel, have been fucking us over for a very long time.

Here's Comes Trouble?

It takes about 6 weeks for an oil tanker to get from the Strait of Hormuz to a western port city.

It's been 38 days - ie: 5 weeks and 3 days - since Trump started his stupid little war with Iran on  Feb 28, which of course, was when the last tanker could've passed through the strait.

This Friday - Apr 10 - may well be the day we see the last of the middle east oil for a while.

If Trump has a sudden bout of Un-Crazy and calls the whole thing off right now, and the Iranians forget it ever happened, and the whole world lets us off the hook, we're still probably royally fucked for the next couple of months.

Since Trump is very likely never to do the smart thing, nothing good is bound to happen,

So file that under:

On the other hand:

I don't know if Mr Global is on point here - seems a little counterintuitive - but he's saying we shouldn't see a major shortage of gasoline in USAmerica Inc.

Trump's stupid little war in Iran is starting to cause - and will continue to cause - some big problems in the overall economy.

So no - we're not safe and secure. We have to be part of the world we live in. We are all interdependent economically, and we're all going to be effected no matter what - good or bad.

IT COULD GET BAD

WE'LL SEE

IT COULD BE ALRIGHT

WE'LL SEE

Stepping On Our Dicks

Sure glad our greatly awesome and amazingly tremendous president had the foresight to kill all the incentives and subsidies for wind and solar so our precious Dirty Fuels Cartel can stay profitable while the rest of us nobly fight to the death over for the last package of low carb tortillas.

I don't remember oil selling at $3 a barrel when I was in my 20s.

Consider my gast thoroughly flabbered.

Today's Belle

Trump got a billion dollars - or is in the process of getting a billion dollars - from the Dirty Fuels Cartel, and he's doing everything necessary to turn the US into New Russia.