Trump's War

AI Summary

According to AP News, the United States military is deploying roughly 9,000 additional troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid rising tensions.

U.S. officials stated that the new deployments aim to bolster regional security and provide strategic flexibility as the conflict with Iran evolves.

📊 Deployment Overview
• Additional Personnel: Roughly 9,000 to 10,000 sailors and Marines.
• Total Naval Strength: Over 20,000 sailors and Marines in the area.
• Overall Presence: Approximately 50,000 total U.S. troops stationed across the Middle East.

🚢 Key Naval Assets
• USS Theodore Roosevelt: Aircraft carrier strike group deployed from San Francisco.
• USS Makin Island: Amphibious readiness group carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit.
• Other Carriers: The USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush are also operating in the region.

⚠️ Strategic Context
• Warnings: President Donald Trump warned that new strikes against Iran remain an option following the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
• Strait of Hormuz: Confrontations and energy route security remain central to the military buildup.

Third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops head to Mideast as Trump weighs new Iran strikes

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military is dispatching roughly 9,000 troops aboard a group of ships to the Middle East, a U.S. official said Thursday. The bolstering of the American military presence comes as President Donald Trump warned anew that new strikes against Iran could be on the horizon.

The troop movement, which includes a third aircraft carrier, underscores the rapidly evolving dynamic of Trump’s war against Iran as he ponders his next move, with midterm elections in the United States looming large and new signs that the nature of the conflict may be becoming more complex.

Trump has threatened that a post-midterm election escalation — despite his initial promises to Americans of a campaign that would last a matter of weeks — remains a viable option. Further complicating matters, Trump told reporters Thursday that early indications suggest that Iran is linked to the FlyDubai co-pilot who stabbed his captain and tried to crash an Israel-bound flight on Wednesday.

In an exchange with reporters at the White House, Trump raised the connection when asked by a reporter if there were any links between the pilot behind the attack and Tehran.

“I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is ‘yes,’ but we’re working on it right now,” Trump said, without offering details.

Trump added that if the link to Iran is established, the United States would retaliate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a Fox News interview earlier Thursday that investigators believe the FlyDubai suspect underwent “Islamist, radical indoctrination” but did not provide further details.

“Oh, they’ll be hit very hard, don’t worry,” Trump said. “You just ask them. They know what happened. They’ll be hit very hard.”

Thousands of US sailors and Marines head to the Middle East
Meanwhile, the group of ships now en route to the Middle East together carry over 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines.

It includes the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which recently deployed with the cruiser USS Chosin, and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which includes the USS John P. Murtha and USS Anchorage amphibious landing ships.

It could mean that three carriers are in the region as early as the end of October, according to the U.S. official, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

Given the personnel already in place in the Middle East, the move would bring the U.S. naval presence to an unusually high number of more than 20,000 sailors and Marines as well as hundreds of aircraft. The Navy previously had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East in April for the first time since 2003.

The carriers USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington are in the region now, along with the USS Boxer amphibious readiness group. The Washington is typically deployed to the Pacific Ocean, but it was moved to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, whose arduous deployment resulted in the crew being at sea for more than 260 days straight.

Trump explains why he rejected Iran’s latest truce proposal

Trump, in a Time magazine interview published Thursday, also raised the prospects of new strikes, saying it is “possible” that he will ramp up bombing in Iran after the Nov. 3 elections in the United States.

When pressed, Trump said he could not go into further detail about his strategy.

“I can’t tell you that because look, you know, you’re asking, where are you going to bomb?” Trump said.

He said in the interview, conducted Monday, that he rejected the latest ceasefire proposal from Iran because “things that I wouldn’t have approved a year ago I wouldn’t have today.”

Trump cited as an example an offer from Iran to “open up” the Strait of Hormuz, the key energy shipping corridor, but said the overall proposal was “not good enough.”

The war shows signs of getting more complicated

Asked if the increasingly unpopular war would threaten Republican Party chances in November, Trump at first responded, “It’s possible.” But then he added, “It should help, because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

The president said “100% of the people” oppose Iran having nuclear attack capabilities “including worldwide.”

“So, when you say it that way, it would help,” Trump added. “If you don’t say that, it could hurt.”

Yet, there’s also growing concern that Tehran might be turning to asymmetrical tactics following the FlyDubai attack and another suspicious incident in the U.K.

Authorities believe that Iran might be looking to shift strategy just as the U.S. finds greater success in loosening Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz and getting Gulf allies’ oil to market, while a Navy blockade is shutting down Iran’s own oil exports.

British authorities announced on Thursday the arrest of a dual U.K.-Iranian national on suspicion of plotting a terror attack following a security incident at a U.S.-run military air base in England that British authorities have linked to Tehran.

The arrest of the 27-year-old man in Central London came after U.K. authorities arrested five men, all British nationals in their 20s and from London, in the early hours of Sunday on suspicion of explosives and terror offenses close to the RAF Fairford air base

The base has been used by American bombers to strike Iran. The suspects have since been released on bail.

Operation Epstein FUBAR

   Dead: 19 (officially - probably more like 23)

Wounded:861

Pentagon quietly adds dozens to tally of troops wounded amid Iran war

With the addition of 29 U.S. sailors and eight Marines, the total number of personnel wounded since the start of hostilities has risen to 861, database shows.

The Pentagon’s public tally of troops wounded during the Iran war was quietly increased by 37 this week without explanation from the Defense Department.

The increase includes 29 Navy sailors and eight Marines, according to a review of the Pentagon’s public database of personnel killed and wounded during U.S. conflicts and other military operations overseas. The web portal is called the Defense Casualty Analysis System, or DCAS.

As of Wednesday, the total number of troops wounded during the Iran war is 861, according to DCAS. More than half are categorized in the Pentagon database as having occurred in “Overseas Operations” since the start of a July ceasefire between Washington and Tehran that later collapsed. Before then, killed and wounded troops were tallied under “Operation Epic Fury,” the Trump administration’s name for the Iran war.

The DCAS database does not explain how these 37 troops were wounded or when. A Navy official said all the sailors returned to duty following the unspecified injuries.

President Donald Trump and other senior administration officials have, since the ceasefire, repeatedly argued that the conflict is not a war. Vice President JD Vance told reporters on Sept. 3 that “Right now, there is no active shooting.”

Defense officials have said previously that DCAS data entry can lag for days or longer for a variety of reasons, including a delay in reporting concussions and brain injuries because sometimes symptoms don’t emerge right away.

Spokespeople for the Pentagon declined to comment about the attack, which was first reported Sunday night by NBC News.

The Navy and Marine Corps referred questions to U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military missions in the Middle East. A spokesman for Central Command declined to comment. Military officials have not publicly disclosed any recent attacks on U.S. forces or other incidents that would account for how these 37 troops were wounded.

The Trump administration’s casualty accounting practices have faced intense scrutiny since earlier this year, when the names of four U.S. troops who died as a result of the Iran war were briefly excluded from the Pentagon’s official tally.

Last week, The Washington Post reported that more American service members have died in the Middle East during the Iran conflict than the Pentagon has disclosed publicly. Officials said that as many as five military fatalities are not reflected in the DCAS database — a discrepancy that remains unresolved. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed the article was inaccurate and called the reporting “disgusting.”

At the time of that report, the database showed that 18 U.S. personnel had died due to hostile and nonhostile action since Feb. 28, when the Trump administration, in concert with Israel, initiated the Iran war. As The Post reported, not all of the undisclosed fatalities are directly tied to the Iran conflict but involve U.S. personnel who were in the region amid the hostilities.

The DCAS tally of fatalities was increased to 19 this week after the death of an Army officer who experienced a medical emergency Sept. 18 while flying to the Middle East.

Historically, nonhostile deaths documented in the DCAS database have encompassed those caused by accidents, sudden health crises or self-inflicted wounds, including suicides. In past conflicts, those types of deaths were documented to provide the American public with an unvarnished accounting of the costs incurred by military personnel and their families.

Polls show that the Iran war is deeply unpopular with the American public and a potential political liability for Trump and the Republican Party heading into November’s midterm elections.

On Thursday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told reporters that Tehran had made an overture to Washington seeking to revive peace talks.

Policy? What Policy?

Republicans talking out their ass.

Keith

The Chinese helped Iran kill Americans on the ground in the Middle East.

Maybe Keith is overstating it when he says we're at war with China, but Trump's War of the Stoopid could be quietly widening - it sure as hell ain't exactly cooling down.

And this whole fucked up thing is proving one of the big assertions from the 90s. ie: Free trade keeps the peace.

We'll have to figure out how to keep the imperialists and mercantilists from using it as just another weapon in just a different kind of war, but if you have more goods flowing, you're going to have a lot fewer people shooting at each other.

War may be OK for the handful of companies that supply the bullets, beans and band aids, but war is definitely not good for the vast majority of people caught up in it, whether they're directly in the line of fire or simply trying to muddle through in an economy being crippled by it, just because a few stupid politicians either can't figure out how to stop it, or they're too busy looking for ways to profit from it.

So fuckin' sick of this stoopid fuckin' timeline.

Iran

I remember when the old analog gas pumps had to be re-jiggered to accommodate prices nobody thought would ever occur.

There are stories coming out now that the signs used by gas stations to advertise their prices have reached their max as the price goes over $10 a gallon in California.

This is bad, and it's gonna get worse.

Iran Update

I get the feeling Trump is bored with it, and he's leaving it all up to his underlings so he can just blow it off, thinking that gives him some kind of plausible deniability as he skates away. Of course, he'll blame Hegseth or the generals or Barbra Streisand, or whatever the fuck.

The problem Hegseth's got now is that he's losing what little support he had. He's firing everybody with the brains and the guts they have to have to serve at those upper levels, so whoever's left will likely just pull the levers they're told to pull and the greatest military force in the history of the galaxy will just fizzle out with a resounding pffft.

And the bigger problem is that nobody can get thru to either Hegseth or Trump that this war is a waste of time, energy, money, material, and people. Continuing it is a perfect example of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

The War

Trump fucked it up - surprise surprise - and now he needs to shove it all down the memory hole.

Funny how the people who lost their shit over 13 dead Americans when we left Afghanistan are now actively ignoring 18 dead Americans because Trump was looking for a quick dopamine hit by killing thousands of Persians.

And BTW, he's never going to regret any of it - IMO, he gets off on it.

The USS Lincoln Problem

Boots are for feet - not to eat.

The War

It can't come as any kind of surprise to anyone that Trump would jigger the numbers.

During the pandemic, when it was obvious there were a lot more cases being reported than Trump wanted to admit to, he said we should just stop testing so much.

When the jobs reports weren't to his liking, he fired the lady who was doing the reporting.

If there's a "bright side", it lies in the fact that there are good and decent professionals working in the government who know what they're doing, and who know it's ridiculously important to tell us the truth about what goes on when we're in a fuckiing war.

Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties in quiet database update

Figures are source of dispute as US defense department days ago reduced record of troops killed and wounded

The Pentagon updated its official war casualty database over the weekend, adding more than 140 wounded service members. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) also introduced a new casualty category labeled “Overseas Operations” for personnel killed and wounded “starting July 7”.

According to the updated database, the official toll for the earlier phase of the US-Iran war, known as Operation Epic Fury, now stands at 14 service members killed and more than 400 wounded in action.

These figures have been a point of contention after the Pentagon previously reduced the totals from 18 deaths and 482 wounded that had been recorded just days earlier.

The dispute comes after the collapse of the ceasefire with Iran and the resumption of near-daily airstrikes beginning on 6 July. Analysts and officials have questioned whether casualties from the renewed fighting should be counted separately from Operation Epic Fury, a move that would be unprecedented.

The Trump administration is seeking to classify the renewed military campaign as separate from Operation Epic Fury, the US military’s official name for the Iran conflict.

The change is tied to the War Powers Act of 1973, which requires the president to end military operations within 60 days unless Congress authorizes an extension. The Trump administration has argued that the April ceasefire with Iran paused the clock on 1 May for the conflict’s initial period. The separate casualty count beginning on 7 July follows that interpretation.

The shift became apparent earlier this week when the Pentagon’s official online list of service members killed in the ongoing Iran war did not include the four soldiers who died during renewed fighting over the weekend. Their names, however, were included in a Pentagon press release announcing the formal transfer of their remains back to the US on Wednesday.

Lawmakers from both parties have challenged the administration’s interpretation of the War Powers Act timeline.

Thomas Massie, a Republican House member from Kentucky, responded to the updated numbers in an X post, writing: “Let me explain this absurd ruse: The Pentagon is pretending there have been two Iran wars separated by a brief cease-fire.

“The reality: By going more than 90 days without congressional authorization,” the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, “IS BREAKING THE LAW and must be held accountable”.

And The Question Is

... does this have anything to do with Trump's nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that was announced the other day?

Everything is a real estate deal to Kushner and Witkoff, so there's no way to view any of this through a lens of normal diplomacy.

WTF are we supposed to think about any of this shit?

Trump ordered military not to conduct strikes in Iran Friday

President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said.

Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue.

• Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short of a return to major combat operations — the current level of U.S. strikes has reached the limit of its effectiveness.
• If Trump orders a return to strikes, the U.S. military can mobilize on relatively short notice.
• The U.S. military is still preparing plans for a possible return to major combat operations, but Trump hasn't given orders to move in that direction, the sources said.
• The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Driving the news: Every afternoon for the last two weeks, Trump has approved strike plans submitted by the military. They were conducted within hours.

• On Friday, Trump received a similar plan but did not give a green light. Instead, he directed the military not to conduct strikes, the sources said.
• Shortly after he gave the Friday directive, Trump told reporters at the White House that he has the option of continuing strikes or even escalating them, including "knocking out everything they have.
• "But he made clear that he thinks the "smarter strategy" is to "make a deal" with Iran.
• "We're talking to [the Iranians] right now. I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by. We're locked and loaded and ready to go, but we're talking to them," Trump said.
• Later on Friday, during his remarks at the White House Correspondents Association dinner, Trump said he didn't think Iran is ready to make a deal at the moment, "but I'm willing to listen."

Behind the scenes:  The Israeli security cabinet and Israel Defense Force expected another round of U.S. strikes on Friday and even prepared for a massive U.S. attack that could trigger a retaliatory attack on Israel, Israeli officials say.

• The cabinet and military didn't feel they had a full picture of what the U.S. would do, so they prepared for a major bombing offensive and remained on high alert.
• On Friday night, the Israelis were notified that Trump did not approve more strikes.

State of play: Trump's order to hold fire was given several hours after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran Friday for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Two regional sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress has been made in the talks and that an agreement between Oman and Iran could be reached over the weekend.
• President Trump would then have to decide whether to accept the proposed deal.

That Stupid War

Total hubris.

Trump's foul-mouthed Iran meltdown leaked as president in 'revenge mode' as he runs out of options

Donald Trump unleashed a series of expletives in an explosive rant about his war in Iran during a recent Oval Office meeting, according to those who overheard the tirade

Donald Trump flew into an expletive-laden rant in the Oval Office as he increasingly loses patience over the war he started in Iran, according to someone who overheard the angry meltdown.

The 80-year-old president, whose marriage to Melania is at its lowest point due to a 'disturbing' reason, initially said the war would be over in a matter of weeks, but the conflict is now close to entering its fifth month with no end in sight. As Trump's attempts to wind down the war continuously fail, his anger reportedly bubbled over during a recent Oval Office meeting.

The president launched into a raging tirade against Iran's leaders, referring to them as "scumbags" and "lunatics," while also spitting out a series of expletives during the White House meeting, a person who heard the comments told The Wall Street Journal. It comes after Trump's 'diaper nurse' left devoted letters to the president in his room with intimate messages.

Trump, who was slammed for a 'disgusting' act towards the families of dead US soldiers, has been attempting to end his war, which has cost the lives of 18 US service members and sent gas prices soaring, for months.

In April, he announced a ceasefire in the conflict, and in June he said the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after claiming for months that he was close to a deal with Iran.

But both of those agreements have crumbled, with fighting quickly resuming. American forces carried out their 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, the US military confirmed early Friday.

As renewed fighting reignites global economic chaos and results in the deaths of more American soldiers, Trump has grown increasingly doubtful that he will be able to produce lasting peace by negotiating with Iran, people familiar with the matter said.

The president, whose 'backup Trump' was spotted waiting behind him in shocking footage, is convinced that Iran only understands military force, and he is now in "revenge mode" against Tehran, according to a senior administration official. Trump sees continuing strikes as one of the few good options he has left, the official said.

At the same time, some of the president's advisors are reportedly concerned that the Iran war is consuming Trump's presidency and tarnishing Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterms they are already worried about their prospects in.

Despite the unpopularity of the war in the US and the widespread damage it has caused in Iran and to the global economy, the latest round of fighting has no clear off-ramp. The conflict has flared again over the past week, as the US has pounded Iran while Tehran has attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted US assets and allies in the region.

The strait, which is a crucial passage for the world’s energy supplies, is at the center of the latest fighting since Iranian attacks can effectively shut the waterway, sending fuel prices soaring worldwide and causing widespread economic turmoil.

The Iranian-allied Houthi rebels added further pressure this week by targeting two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, making good on a threat to cut off an alternative route for the region’s oil. Iran’s Health Ministry said 55 people have been killed and over 600 wounded in strikes in recent weeks, as fighting escalated.

As the US has bombed Iran, Tehran has targeted several countries in the region that host American troops. Bahrain sounded sirens twice on Friday; there were no immediate reports of damage. Brent crude, the international standard, topped $100 a barrel in the wake of the latest round of attacks, though it has since come down.

Hawk

Stop wondering

Texas Paul

🇺🇸 Pvt Isabella Gonzales

🇺🇸 Lt James Feehan

The NACHO Trade

N ot

A

C hance

H ormuz

O pens

The First Casualty Of War

What we've spent on the operations being conducted against Iran is separate from the damage Iran has rained down on "the best, most unbeatable gosh darned military ever."

And that cost is estimated to be anywhere between $200B to well over a trillion if we factor in the broader economic damage.

Oh yeah - almost forgot - Trump has told us again that it's over and we've won - which makes it somewhere between 12 and 40 times now.

And also too: US Casualties are minimum 16 dead and 543 wounded.

How Iran Devastated an American Naval Base—and Caused a U.S. Recalculation

Satellite imagery reveals for the first time the extent of what Iran destroyed at Naval Support Activity Bahrain

When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark.

The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. Strikes that got through caused extensive damage, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery, social-media footage and interviews with current and former servicemembers—damage that the Pentagon hasn’t publicly acknowledged. Hit hard were the command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings, along with two satellite communications terminals.

The military said no one was killed at the base, known as Naval Support Activity Bahrain, and that the strikes didn’t significantly impact operations. The U.S. evacuated most personnel but has kept a small staff on the ground.

Over the course of the war, “Centcom rightfully prioritized the protection of people over buildings, and our strategy of protecting people worked. Iran shot more than 8,000 missiles and drones and only two hits resulted in U.S. fatalities,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East. Hawkins also said the U.S. military inflicted far more damage to Iran than it received, with the U.S. striking more than 13,500 targets.

The extensive damage done to America’s sole naval base in the Middle East—along with hits to at least 20 U.S. sites across the region, including military installations and diplomatic facilities—has the U.S. re-evaluating its entire footprint in the region, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.

Damaged sites include warehouses, a water tank, two satellite communications terminals and a communications management facility, and the headquarters building for the U.S. Navy in the Middle East.

The military is now considering revamping the base in Bahrain, reducing the U.S. presence in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and moving some bases or base functions west, farther from the reach of Iranian missiles and drones, according to the officials familiar with the deliberations.

Structures that were attacked may not be rebuilt. Command and control nodes could be moved underground. And military capabilities could become more spread out across the region, the officials said, though they cautioned that no decisions had been made.

Israel is one of the locations being considered for basing, according to two of the officials. The country hosted dozens of U.S. aircraft, including jet fighters and refueling planes, during the war.

The U.S. government pressed commercial satellite imagery providers in April to restrict access to images showing destruction at American bases as well as the broader conflict zone, making it difficult to see the full scope of the damage. Officials said the move would help protect U.S. forces.

Pentagon officials have frustrated lawmakers by declining to discuss the cost of the U.S. damage with Congress. In response to a request for comment, the Pentagon pointed to remarks made by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Capitol Hill.

Pressed for an estimate at a May congressional hearing, Hegseth replied: “What is the cost of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon?”

Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress last month that the department’s estimated cost of the war, then at $29 billion, didn’t include damage to U.S. bases.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in a report published Tuesday that the total cost of the war was about $40 billion. That estimate included their calculus of $2.2 billion to $5.1 billion in damage to U.S. bases, based on structures that CSIS identified as damaged.

The Journal used satellite images and social-media footage to identify which buildings on the Bahrain base were damaged. To estimate what it would cost to construct buildings of the same types today, the Journal reviewed a publicly available Defense Department cost model as well as procurement reports. The estimates only cover construction, and don’t include other costs that ​could factor into the total if the buildings were to be rebuilt, such as debris removal and reinforcement. ​

The estimated construction costs at NSA Bahrain totaled about $400 million.

What Iran hit at NSA Bahrain

Less than 150 miles from Iran’s southern coast, NSA Bahrain has been the anchor of American naval power in the Middle East for more than three decades. The base can host every type of ship in the U.S. fleet, and has played a critical role in countering Iranian weapon smuggling, minelaying and tanker attacks.

The base is divided into three sections: a waterfront area focused on ship operations; next to it, the main base, home to administrative and command buildings; and a Navy-leased warehouse and annex complex. Iran hit all three.

Iran damaged part of the headquarters for the Navy's Fifth Fleet, which covers the Middle East. The building is no longer usable, according to a U.S. official.

About 300 feet northwest, the Naval Security Forces training building was destroyed. The NSF provides security for the base and routinely conducts emergency preparedness drills.

Less than a quarter-mile east, the base’s emergency management warehouse, which houses ambulances, sustained damage.

In the waterfront area, a potable water tank and adjacent warehouse were damaged.

Less than 300 feet southeast, the main dining hall and a barracks that can house roughly 450 personnel sustained damage.

On the far side of the base lies an annex the Navy leases from a Bahraini company called the Banz Group. Three sections of a warehouse group in that area took some of the heaviest damage.

Task Force 59, the Navy’s first drone and artificial intelligence unit, historically housed drones in one bay of the complex. Established in 2021, Task Force 59 has been charged with using unmanned drones and AI systems to monitor key Middle East waterways.

In the full accounting of damages, building construction may be the smaller part of the cost, depending on what was inside, said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at CSIS who co-wrote the think tank’s costs report.

Two AN/GSC-52B satellite communications terminals were destroyed in the opening hours of Iran’s retaliatory strikes, along with a communications management facility. The terminals, which enable near real-time military communication, cost about $20 million each, according to CSIS.

Throughout the base, the damages “exposed weakness and vulnerabilities across the board,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, co-chair of the National Commission on the Future of the Navy, a bipartisan panel created by Congress, and co-author of an April analysis by the American Enterprise Institute on damage to U.S. bases.

NSA Bahrain was built long before Iran possessed the arsenal of precision missiles and drones it has today, and the war revealed its vulnerabilities.

“We’ve been there for more than 50 years, and the base grew up the way the base grew up,” said retired Vice Adm. John “Fozzie” Miller, who commanded U.S. naval forces in the Middle East. “I think there are some things we would do differently.”

As the only U.S. posting in the Middle East where families could live, the base functioned like a small American city, with a softball field, restaurants, a naval exchange and a school. Sailors who spent weeks at sea would pull into Bahrain and head to the base to decompress.

“When I was there last time, they were having a dance party,” said Cancian, who was based at NSA Bahrain twice.

Now, retired Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, who commanded U.S. naval forces in the Middle East, said he expects the U.S. to keep a presence in Bahrain, which is considered a strong ally. “We keep a Fifth Fleet headquarters there, and the question is probably not does that go away, but what does it look like when this is over?” he said.

This week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the King of Bahrain and other leaders in the Middle East to reaffirm the U.S.’s commitment to their security.

“We stand united on regional stability, a free and open Strait of Hormuz, and preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” Rubio said on social media. “Iran’s attacks on Bahrain were unacceptable, and the United States stands with the people and government of Bahrain.”

Rubio also stopped in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait but skipped Saudi Arabia, which restricted U.S. base and airspace access during the war, deepening a rift that has accelerated Washington’s reassessment of its posture there. Gulf partners have welcomed the ceasefire but remain anxious about Iran’s long-term threat and the durability of American commitments.

Before the war, some military officials warned that bases in the Gulf were exposed. A proposal to move installations farther west was floated in Trump’s first term but never acted on.

“We defended our installations admirably, but the munitions that got through hit infrastructure required for us to conduct operations,” said Dr. Ravi Chaudhary, a former assistant secretary of the Air Force. “This is the byproduct of 10 years of Iran adapting its strike technologies for greater range and accuracy.”

The decisions the U.S. makes now—what to reconstruct, what to abandon, how far to pull back—will define its presence in the Middle East for a generation.

That's Rich

This guy's writing just gets better.

Aaron Parnas

That little "peace deal" is what most of us thought it was - pure desperate fantasy.

Trump gets his stoopid ass into a huge bind, and he thinks he can just walk away with a few parting shots at people who're trying to help him. Instead of recognizing them as the ones willing to do what he needs done, he treats them like enemies, and so - voilà - they become enemies.

Dumbest fuckin' stable genius anybody's ever seen.

For The Most Part

We can all get suckered. We can all swallow a lie that just seems too good to be anything but the truth.

But if I have car trouble, I'm going to call an auto mechanic, not some average computer nerd who thinks a car is no different from the 10-speed he rides to work.

If I have an issue with some weird trauma left over from my childhood, I'll call a therapist who knows how to help me with that stuff, and not some guru who tells me all I have to do is shove some crystals up my ass, and drink some off-the-wall tea made from a few flowers and insect balls.

If I have a terrible headache that's been going on for 5 or 6 days, I'm going to find me a certified neurologist - not a fuckin' plumber who spends lots of time "researching" on YouTube.

Trump led us all over to a red hot stove and insisted on having us jump up on it. And even though there were a few MAGA fuckwads who - even now - tell us everything's fine, we've got blisters on our butts that won't be healed up for a good long goddamned time.

When you've lost Piers Morgan, the jig is up. Call in the dogs, piss on the fire, and strike camp - this hunt is over.

Nobody Didn't See It Coming

How Trump’s ‘Operation Epic Disaster’ turned the world against America

Donald Trump wanted to bring the Islamic Republic to its knees. He failed on all counts

One month into Operation Epic Fury, Donald Trump insisted that one of the most intense military campaigns in recent history would soon be over.

“We are on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat to America and the world,” the US president said in a primetime address.

Almost two months later he signed a deal to end the conflict that many argue favours Iran and fails to meet his primary objectives.

The Iran war has revealed the limits of US military power to achieve political objectives. But it has also left allies and partners questioning their relations with Washington.

“We deployed American power recklessly and incomprehensibly,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US state department negotiator and adviser during multiple Republican and Democratic administrations.

“The moral and strategic argument is that Operation Epic Fury has been an epic disaster,” he said, adding: “What significance did this war have to advancing the national interests of the US?”

Mr Trump spent his last day at the G7 summit in Geneva this week trying to quell concerns about the peace treaty.

The page-and-a-half-long deal, signed on Wednesday night, consists of a broad and apparently flimsy set of principles to keep peace and kick contentious issues into the long grass.

Among US allies, concerns are being raised privately that the rushed framework is light on nuclear concessions and heavy on financial incentives.

A senior European diplomat said: “The deal will turn out to be a win for Iran. I don’t think Iran will give much in the coming 60 days of negotiations.

“Obviously, Iran has been degraded somewhat by the military campaign, but psychologically and politically I think Iran is the winner, at least for now.”

The conflict put unprecedented strain on the transatlantic alliance. Some European countries denied American warplanes use of their airspace, while the refusal of Nato countries to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz infuriated Mr Trump.

It culminated in Mr Trump threatening to abandon the alliance altogether.

The diplomat added: “The frustration with the current erratic foreign policy swings is growing and increasingly visible. We have always answered the phone, when the US has called. For the time being, those phone calls will be picked up less frequently.”

Militarily, the US has depleted its critical missile and munitions stockpiles and overstretched its artillery, forcing the relocation of assets from the Pacific.

The Gulf states have suffered severe damage to energy facilities and incurred heavy economic losses. Their long-held image as safe and luxurious tax havens has been shattered.

Israel, still at war with Iran-backed Hezbollah, has been sidelined in negotiations and forcibly brought to heel by Mr Trump, while its support in America is being drained.

The Iranian regime is emboldened, hardliners are empowered, and the civilian population is suffering from intensified repression.

Tehran will commit to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and reiterate its pledge to never produce a nuclear weapon – positions it held before the war began.

The White House has insisted “no dust, no dollars”, meaning Iran has to surrender its 430kg of highly enriched uranium before it gets sanctions relief. But such nuclear concessions were already on the table in February, days before the war began.

The terms have led allies to privately ask: What exactly did Mr Trump go to war with Iran for?

Even Mr Trump’s inner circle is expressing doubts. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary and John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, have reportedly questioned Iran’s good faith.

“It is emblematic of everything that is wrong with the Trump administration,” Mr Miller said, citing the lack of reliance on expertise and intelligence, the politicisation of American foreign policy and “Trump’s own predilections that US power is unlimited”.

More broadly speaking, Mr Miller added: “America’s capacity to deter has been undermined.

“The Islamic regime has now survived the largest deployment of US air, naval and missile assets since the Iraq War and survived a military campaign against Israel, the region’s most important military power.”

However, American credibility will recover, he said. “After Vietnam, the Iraq war, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, people believed the US would never lead again. I didn’t believe them then, and I don’t believe it now,” he said.

Mr Trump’s credibility, on the other hand, may not. His shifting war objectives, constantly misleading public messaging and inability to secure what he promised have eroded public trust, polls repeatedly show.

“Trump overestimated the ability of the military to accomplish political objectives and learned the limitations of force,” said David Schenker, the assistant US secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs under the first Trump administration.

Shattering the illusion of security

Among the most urgent questions about US power and trustworthiness come from those in the Gulf who must confront the new reality that the US cannot ensure their security.

During the war, the presence of American forces in the region attracted, rather than deterred, attacks by Iran – helping to shatter the illusion of the US security umbrella.

Mehran Kamrava, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at Georgetown University in Qatar, said: “The US will continue to remain the dominant power globally, but what it has shown in the Gulf is they cannot rely on the US solely for their security.

“It will accelerate their push to diversify their security partners and strategic reliances.”

The rifts are already evident. The United Arab Emirates is deepening its ties with Israel and India, while Saudi Arabia is forging a new security axis with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.

Israel’s uncertain path forward

The news of the agreement to end the fighting “on all fronts” was greeted with anger and dismay in Israel. With Israeli forces still deployed in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and Syria, it has left America’s key ally uncertain of the path forward.

In the eyes of many Americans who disapprove of the conflict, Benjamin Netanyahu pushed their president into a misguided war, accelerating the fraying support for Israel inside the US, a process that began with Gaza.

For some in the administration, the Israeli prime minister is the scapegoat for unfulfilled war objectives.

JD Vance, the US vice-president and a staunch sceptic on foreign intervention, publicly acknowledged the strain on relations, accusing Mr Netanyahu of “getting some things wrong”.

In April, Joe Kent resigned as director of the US national counter-terrorism centre in protest against the war, accusing Israel of dragging the US into a “war of choice” and manipulating Mr Trump into joining in the first place.

Prof Kamrava said the damage to US-Israeli relations is not irreparable, but in the short term hinges on the personal relationship between Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu.

“Trump feels in many ways misled by faulty or false intelligence of Israel. For Netanyahu, who has legal and political problems, this war with Iran was a lifeline, but he has emerged in a much weaker position as he enters his own electoral campaign.”

Mr Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, is seeking another term in the elections scheduled for later this year, with his political rivals using the MoU as a stick to beat him with before October’s vote.

An unpopular war

At home, a war with Iran was never popular.

Polls conducted in the first week of February showed that nearly half of Americans opposed an attack on Iran. By May, after two months of war, disapproval had risen sharply to 58 per cent.

During the most active stages of the conflict, it was estimated to be costing taxpayers an average of $2bn (£1.5bn) a day.

Announcing the “historic peace agreement” on Sunday, a White House spokesman said it would end “decades of hostility” and bring “stability to one of the world’s most volatile regions”.

But Americans won’t feel the relief of this “historic” moment for months to come. Oil prices have begun to fall, but fuel and food prices are expected to remain high for some time – long enough for a disgruntled electorate to damage the Republican Party in the midterms and perhaps see Mr Trump lose control of Congress.

He will have a hard time persuading voters the war was worth ongoing pain and is not another American military misadventure.

Mr Trump continues to insist that his deal is better than the one Barack Obama signed with Iran to limit its nuclear programme and missile capacity. Experts disagree.

“The US lost on virtually every point,” he tweeted in 2015. “We just don’t win anymore!”

The words are now coming back to haunt him, and are likely to be played again and again by Democrat campaigners ahead of the midterms.

Iranian citizens, too, have lost trust in Mr Trump. He told some 93 million of them that “help is on its way” as they took to the streets last winter to protest against the regime and were killed in their thousands.

The Iranian diaspora were purportedly dancing in the streets following the killing of Ali Khamenei. But now the mood has shifted.

Mr Trump’s attempt to foment a rebellion failed. So did his military action. His credibility has been eroded not only on the geopolitical stage, but among ordinary people worldwide, some of whom had been desperately hoping for a way out of living in an oppressive regime.

“If you look at the many examples of history, the US has only tried to answer its national security interests through military force,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, said.

“Time and time again, the US has not thought about the people on the ground of its conflicts,” said Dr Vakil, “and this has come at a catastrophic cost for the Iranian people.”

Belle

Some great points.

• If it's not really valuable, don't start a war over it
• The MOU has been signed "digitally"? Y'mean, like an autopen kinda thing?
• If it's a real deal, then let's see it