It's impossible to tell what's real when somebody like Yevgeniy Prigozhin seems to go Full Karen.
Prigozhin showed fresh losses of Wagner PMC and blamed Shoigu and Gerasimov for them.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2023
He says the ammunition shortage has reached 70% and seems to be on the verge himself. pic.twitter.com/lRiGjApC5n
- Is he worried that his influence is waning?
- Is he laying down the pretext to save face as he turns tail and runs?
- Is it meant to bluff Ukraine into getting cocky and tipping their hand?
- Is he facing a revolt - possibly outright mutiny - within the Wagner PMC?
- Is he well-enough versed in Sun Tzu to be handing Putin a dilemma?
If that last bit is the case, we could be seeing both the beginning of a potentially rapid collapse of the Russian effort in Ukraine, and the end of Mr Putin.
Of course, we may never learn the truth here, but something's happening that is definitely not according to the original plan.
Wagner boss threatens to pull out of Bakhmut, slams Russian military
In a sharp escalation of the rivalry between Russia’s disparate military forces fighting in Ukraine, the head of the Wagner mercenary group announced Friday that he would withdraw his forces from the still raging battle for Bakhmut because of insufficient ammunition.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin published a statement and video on his Telegram channel, demanding that the Ministry of Defense sign an order indicating when they would replace Wagner forces in Bakhmut. He said he would withdraw May 10, the day after Russia’s hallowed Victory Day celebrations.
“I am withdrawing the Wagner PMC units from Bakhmut, because in the absence of ammunition they are doomed to senseless death,” Prigozhin said, wearing camouflage and a helmet, with an automatic weapon slung over his shoulder. He stood with a group of dozens masked Wagner fighters, some wearing full face skull masks.
In a sharp escalation of the rivalry between Russia’s disparate military forces fighting in Ukraine, the head of the Wagner mercenary group announced Friday that he would withdraw his forces from the still raging battle for Bakhmut because of insufficient ammunition.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin published a statement and video on his Telegram channel, demanding that the Ministry of Defense sign an order indicating when they would replace Wagner forces in Bakhmut. He said he would withdraw May 10, the day after Russia’s hallowed Victory Day celebrations.
“I am withdrawing the Wagner PMC units from Bakhmut, because in the absence of ammunition they are doomed to senseless death,” Prigozhin said, wearing camouflage and a helmet, with an automatic weapon slung over his shoulder. He stood with a group of dozens masked Wagner fighters, some wearing full face skull masks.
Prigozhin said his forces had no choice but to withdraw to rear bases to “lick the wounds.” It remains to be seen if he will indeed withdraw his forces — a move that would be catastrophic for Russia’s long and bloody military campaign to take control of Bakhmut and would likely leave the influential oligarch tarnished politically.
“Of course, I foresee criticism. After a while there will be some smart guys who will say that it was necessary to stay in Bakhmut even longer. Whoever has criticisms, you’re welcome to come to Bakhmut and stand with weapons in your hands instead of our killed comrades,” he said.
Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov, however, said Prigozhin was so popular in Russia and irritation at political and military officials over the mistakes and inertia of the “special military operation” in Ukraine was so pronounced that it was “political suicide” to criticize him.
“It seems to society, the bureaucracy is afraid to defeat the West in Ukraine, afraid to fight for real … many are afraid to criticize the Ministry of Defense. But no one has yet dared to seriously criticize Wagner,” he said.
Overnight, an extraordinary video was posted on Telegram, in which Prigozhin displayed dozens of corpses of Wagner fighters killed in Bakhmut on Thursday, before launching a furious, obscenity-laden tirade, blaming Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, for supplying Wagner with only 30 percent of the ammunition it needed.
Prigozhin’s main accusation was that military officials, jealous of Wagner’s battlefield successes, were intentionally depriving it of ammunition to prevent it from conquering the city before the symbolically important Victory Day on May 9.
His letter on Friday went further, asserting that Wagner was only getting 10 percent of required ammunition, not 30 percent.
The bitter public recriminations over ammunition appear to be a new sign of Russia’s difficulties in increasing its military production to match the challenges on the battlefield, as it braces for an expected new Ukrainian counteroffensive in coming weeks.
Prigozhin’s outburst may also be an effort to shift the blame for Wagner’s failure to seize Bakhmut before Victory Day, which would have given President Vladimir Putin something to celebrate in his speech in Red Square.
Wagner has been battling to seize Bakhmut since last summer with massive losses, and Prigozhin’s open struggle with Russia’s military leaders has continued most of this year.
Russia needs more troops but is wary of public anger, leaked documents say
His letter also painted a picture of chaos and miscommunication on the battlefield, claiming that Russian military forces that were supposed to support Wagner’s flanks in Bakhmut were ineffective and deployed in lower numbers than officially claimed.
“Instead of tens of thousands there are tens and seldom hundreds of fighters,” he said.
According to Western intelligence estimates, Wagner deployed some 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, many of them prisoners who were offered pardons in return for fighting.
U.S. National Security spokesman John Kirby said Monday that nearly half of the 20,000 Russian soldiers killed since December were Wagner fighters pitted in the brutal struggle to take Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Russia’s Ministry of Defense over supplies to Wagner, and he renewed his pressure for more ammunition on Monday, saying his forces needed 300 tons of artillery shells to complete the assault on Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has shared videos of dead Wagner fighters before on Telegram, but his open rage, publicly confronting Russian military officials in the graphic video posted overnight, was highly unusual. The video of the bloodied corpses was crammed with bleeped-out obscenities directed at Shoigu and Gerasimov.
“These are the guys of the PMC Wagner. They were killed today. Their blood is still fresh,” he said. “Film them all,” he told an assistant, who panned across the dozens of bloodied bodies laid out in rows. If Wagner was given enough ammunition, its losses would be 80 percent lower, he said.
“Shoigu, Gerasimov,” he shouted. “These are these are somebody’s [expletive] fathers and somebody’s sons. And those [expletive] who don’t give us ammunition will be in hell eating their guts.”
Ukrainian soldiers fire a cannon near Bakhmut, where fierce battles against Russian forces have been taking place, Wednesday. (Libkos/AP)
Accusing the officials of sitting in expensive clubs, he continued, “your kids are enjoying life and making YouTube videos.” Pointing at the corpses, he said “you think that you are the masters of this life, and that you have the right to rule over their lives.
“They came here as volunteers and are dying for you so that you can have a wealthy life and sit in your redwood offices. Keep that in mind,” he said glaring furiously into the camera.
Ukraine defended Bakhmut despite U.S. warnings in leaked documents
Prigozhin, the most visible Russian battlefield leader, frequently posts videos showing himself clad in military gear, traveling in vehicles through the war zone, meeting his fighters like a general, or standing on the battlefield making announcements amid background explosions.
His willingness to take personal and political risks to support his fighters likely inspires loyalty among members of a force who see themselves as the most competent elite unit in the war on Ukraine. It also contrasts vividly with Shoigu, Gerasimov and Putin, who are rarely seen in the combat zone.
Prigozhin’s letter bluntly pointed at Russian military failures, and claimed credit for saving Russia’s military operation.
He said “a series of failures of the Russian Ministry of Defense in various parts of the front” last year led to an October decision for Wagner to conduct “operation Bakhmut meat grinder” to divert Ukrainian forces, claiming this was “extremely effective” because it allowed the Russian army “to take advantageous defensive positions and continue the offensive.”
“After these events the Wagner PMC units fell out of favor with envious military bureaucrats. An artificial ammunition starvation began. An attempt was made to create an artificial shortage of personnel,” he said, referring to moves to prevent Wagner from recruiting prisoners as volunteers.
One prominent nationalist military blogger with the handle Zapiski Veterana posted on Telegram that if Wagner did withdraw it would one of the “cases in history when Russian troops are forced to leave earlier the cities occupied by them due to stupidity, sabotage, and possibly open betrayal on the part of Russian officials.”
The Kremlin has played down reports of the conflict between Prigozhin and defense officials in the past, even as the Wagner leader’s criticisms have become increasingly strident.
In January, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said reports of a conflict were “the product of information manipulation” that was “organized by our enemies in the information sphere.”
But he appeared to take a subtle dig at Prigozhin adding, “But sometimes our friends behave in such a way that we don’t need enemies.”
On Friday, Peskov said that the Kremlin was aware of Prigozhin’s statement but declined to comment on it.
No comments:
Post a Comment