Ukraine will win this war.
— President Biden (@POTUS) September 29, 2024
And the United States will continue to stand beside them every step of the way. pic.twitter.com/Sb3c08eC6s
This is potentially a big time shift. Biden's language before has always been "We'll help Ukraine defend itself...".
Now he's talking about winning.
President Joe Biden announced $8 billion in military assistance to Ukraine last Thursday, in what may well be the last package he greenlights before he leaves office and this year's presidential election in November.
This is the 66th equipment package Biden's administration has provided to Ukraine and is part of the outgoing president's push to continue to send weapons to Kyiv amid debate in U.S. politics about how much money the country should continue to spend on helping its ally in its ongoing war against Russia.
It came before the end of the U.S. fiscal year on Monday, September 30, when $5.9 billion in funding for Ukraine was set to expire.
Biden said he had authorized $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the president to transfer defense money from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to foreign countries without the need for congressional approval for each transfer.
A further $2.4 billion has been allocated through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with more air defense, unmanned aerial systems, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine's defense industry.
The president, who will leave office in January after stepping down from the presidential race in late July, said on Thursday: "Through these actions, my message is clear: The United States will provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war."
Feryal Cherif, the director of the International Relations Program at California's Loyola Marymount University, told Newsweek that "in general, Biden's legacy will be a function of our presidential election and the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian war."
It comes amid uncertainty over how, and to what capacity, America's support for Kyiv will continue after the election, as former President Donald Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, has been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who last week was in the U.S. to present his "victory plan" in winning the war.
After Trump met with Zelensky last Friday, he told reporters: "We have a very good relationship. I also have a very good relationship with [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin and you know, I think if we win, we're going to get it resolved very quickly."
During the meeting at Trump Tower in Manhattan, Zelensky responded to a comment made about the former president's relationship with Putin, saying: "I hope we have more good relations with us."
"It takes two to tango and we will," the former president replied.
Just a few days before this, on Wednesday, Trump told a campaign rally in North Carolina: "We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky."
He added: "Ukraine is gone. It's not Ukraine anymore. Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now."
The Ukrainian president and Trump's running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have recently exchanged words after Zelensky criticized Vance's ideas on how to end the war, calling him "too radical."
During an interview on the Shawn Ryan Show podcast on September 11, Vance said, "Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine—it doesn't join NATO, it doesn't join some of these allied institutions. That is what the deal is ultimately going to look something like."
After Zelensky's criticism, Vance responded by saying he "does not appreciate" the Ukrainian president "telling the American taxpayer what they oughta do," adding: "He [Zelensky] oughta say thank you to the American taxpayer."
Cherif, also an associate professor of political science at Loyola Marymount University, told Newsweek that if Trump "wins the election, there is a good chance that President Zelensky will be pressured to negotiate a peace deal with Russia that involves the loss of territory."
If this happens, folks may think it could have been achieved earlier in the war, saving the U.S. billions of dollars and leaving Biden with a "foreign policy failure," Cherif added.
Newsweek has contacted Biden's team, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment. Newsweek has also contacted Trump's team for comment.
In total, as of September 26, the U.S. has committed more than $59.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration.
Before Biden stepped down as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, he debated Trump in a CNN-hosted debate in June. When it came to the Russia-Ukraine war, Biden justified America's support for Ukraine by saying that Putin wants to "restore his Soviet Empire."
If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins the election she will "likely continue to support Ukraine," Cherif said.
She added: "Harris' presidency is likely to find itself in a position where many Americans feel that, one, the country is hemorrhaging money to a foreign war it cannot win or it finds too costly to win, and two, with the territorial stalemate, we could have arrived at this same outcome, with much less money spent, years ago. Unless the trajectory of the war radically changes, Ukraine is likely to be seen as a foreign policy failure for Biden and Harris."
Newsweek has contacted Harris' team, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment.
Cherif said she believes Harris can "seek to mainstream a new narrative about the war" by "encouraging Ukraine to accept the losses, and with this aid package, frame its continued commitment to containing Russia."
She added: "If they can advance a narrative that we stood up to aggression but now is the time to build strong borders, it could mediate some of the blowback on Biden's legacy and a would-be Harris presidency."
Cherif went on to stress the idea that "defending Ukraine is, not so much the right thing to do but, a vital, long-term American national security issue."
Last week, Harris slammed suggestions that Ukraine should concede territory to Moscow for the sake of peace and said: "They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender. The United States supports Ukraine not out of charity, but because it's in our strategic interest."
During Zelensky's trip to the U.S. last week, Harris told him that her support for Kyiv's defense is "unwavering."
The vice president said: "I have been proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine, and I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war, to be safe, secure and prosperous. The United States must continue to fulfill our long-standing role of global leadership."
A July poll carried out by the Pew Research Center found that 63 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning people believe the U.S. has a responsibility to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, while only 36 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning folks say the same. This was based on answers from 9,424 adults who were surveyed between July 1 and 7. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.
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