LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s rise in recent decades had already put the world’s rich democracies on the defensive. Now Donald Trump is swinging a wrecking ball at the alliances, values and institutions that underpin Western power. While it may be possible to salvage something, the omens are not good.
The West is less a geographical definition than a geopolitical force and a set of values. It has brought together not just the rich democracies of North America and Europe but also countries such as Japan in a set of overlapping pacts and treaties. Underpinning these have been mutual interests and ideas such as the rule of law, free trade, democracy, standing up to tyranny and working together to solve global problems such as climate change.
This ethos has dominated the world since World War Two - and, even more so, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Even though its members have often not lived up to its values, it created the conditions for peace and economic growth in large parts of the world. But its geopolitical pre-eminence started to fray when the United States led an unwise invasion of Iraq in 2003, while its economic supremacy eroded after the global financial crisis in 2008.
Trump was always going to be a disruptive force. But the returning U.S. president has pummelled the international order with an unexpected vigour in the weeks since he moved back into the Oval Office. The former real estate developer had already hinted that he would use military force to annex Greenland, which is a member of the NATO defence alliance, and take over the Panama Canal. He has also threatened tariffs against the European Union and Canada, and pushed for the latter to become part of the United States. Most strikingly, he declared last week that the United States would take over Gaza and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”, after its two million Palestinians inhabitants were permanently resettled elsewhere. Such a project could violate international law.
As if that’s not enough, Trump has ordered the United States to pull out of the World Health Organization, an international tax treaty and withdraw from the Paris climate agreement for a second time. He is imposing sanctions on people who work for the International Criminal Court. His administration plans to slash USAID, the humanitarian aid agency that has been a key component of U.S. attempts to woo developing countries since the 1960s, and has ordered a review, opens new tab of U.S. support for all international organisations.
The rest of the West is too weak to stand up to him. This is especially so in Europe, which desperately needs U.S. military support to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion. It is also true of Japan and South Korea, which cannot defend themselves against China and North Korea respectively without American help.
NOT DEAD YET
The West could yet survive this barrage. Trump’s bark may be worse than his bite. Last week he temporarily pulled back from imposing tariffs on Canada as well as Mexico in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement.
If the U.S. president is using threats to negotiate better deals for America, he may not carry out some of his more extravagant plans. But bullying allies and riding roughshod over international norms still weakens the West.
Trump could also confound doubters and stand by Kyiv. His latest idea is that Ukraine should supply the United States with rare earth minerals as payment for supporting its war effort.
What happens in Ukraine is critical. If Trump abandons it and Russia then bullies it into a miserable peace deal, that could be the final blow for the West. But if the president stands by Kyiv and helps force some reasonable solution, the West could limp on to fight another day.
Another hope is that the United States will go back to its allies and old values after the current president leaves office. But with right-wing nationalism on the rise throughout the West, Trumpism looks more like part of a trend than an aberration.
REST OF THE WEST
If the United States is no longer interested in the West and its values, the remaining countries could try to soldier on alone. The EU could build up its defences, as its leaders promised last week. The United Kingdom could form a stronger security pact with the EU, as it too pledged, opens new tab last week. The European countries could then cut economic and other deals with Japan, Canada, Australia and South Korea.
The rest of the West could reach out to middle powers such as India and Indonesia to negotiate trade and other pacts, as the EU has just done with the Mercosur countries of South America. It could eventually form more friendly relations with China.
Creating such a patchwork quilt would have to surmount a host of hurdles. For a start, Europe cannot do anything Trump would view as hostile, such as cosying up to China. There also should be no question of Europe forming more friendly relations with Beijing while it supports Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Even if the war reaches a reasonable end, it will be hard to stitch together a “mini-West” without the United States, whose economic output of $28 trillion, opens new tab in 2023 was almost as large as the rest of the West put together. The only realistic alternative pole around which countries could rally is the EU.
But the rise of right-wing nationalism in many of its member states may stymie initiatives to do more at an EU level - and a similar phenomenon in the UK may complicate efforts to bring Britain closer to Europe.
The rest of the West should try to protect whatever it can from Trump’s wrecking ball. But the chances of success do not look great.
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