Would it be rude to mention the fact that we wouldn't be in this fucked up mess if we'd followed Jimmy Carter's lead 50 fuckin' years ago, and started to detach ourselves from the Dirty Fuels Cartel?
While it's not good now, it's not quite time to jump up and down in a total panic. But be advised - it could get really really really fuckin' bad in big fuckin' hurry.
Am I cussing too much? No, I am not.
Industry executives said the loss of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is draining petroleum inventories to dangerously low levels.
The oil industry is warning the Trump administration that a Hormuz-sized hole in the world’s petroleum market is steadily draining inventories to levels that are likely to send global energy prices surging in the next several weeks, according to four executives.
Industry executives have flagged the issue to senior White House officials and Cabinet members in recent weeks as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing dialogue with the U.S. energy industry, the people said. The warnings came as recently as late last month as data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other sources began showing that fuel makers were increasingly relying on oil and fuel from their storage tanks to replace products no longer arriving from the Middle East.
“We’re at dangerously low levels already,” said one industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with the administration. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June. … I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.”
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes three months ago, kicking off what has become the biggest disruption in crude oil flows ever. Countries are drawing down supplies in their oil and fuel storage tanks to make up for the shortage of supply coming from the Middle East, but inventories are now running dangerously low and some companies and market analysts are sounding the alarm that a price spike could come later this month.
Some of the conversations have been general warnings while others have focused on tight inventories of specific fuel types in particular locations, such as jet fuel on the West Coast, a second person involved in the conversations said.
A White House official denied that any senior members of staff have been warned privately by the industry about inventories. “Politico’s anonymous sources are wrong,” the official said.
An Energy Department official said that while the agency remains in regular dialogue with energy industry leaders, there have been “no such discussions” about inventories.
Executives from Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil companies are also raising the alarm publicly, warning last week that fuel prices are poised to jump if inventory levels continue their rapid decline. The U.S. average gasoline price was $4.26 a gallon Wednesday, according to AAA, $1.28 a gallon higher than before the war started, off the levels near $4.50 reached a few weeks ago.
Neil Chapman, Exxon’s senior vice president, told an investor conference last week that dated Brent — the benchmark for physical crude oil prices — could hit $150 or $160 a barrel soon in that scenario.
“You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up,” Chapman said.
“The administration has already been told that,” a second oil company executive told POLITICO of Chapman’s statement. The recent public pronouncements from industry executives are “a message for the consumer,” this person continued. “Don’t think that an open strait is going to mean your July 4 gasoline bill isn’t going to be higher than what it is today. It’s going to be.”
The White House is closely watching the oil and fuel supply levels, said another person who is in touch with the administration on energy policy and who was granted anonymity to describe private conversations.
U.S. crude stocks held by companies fell by 8 million barrels last week, the eighth straight weekly decrease, and are now 3 percent below the five-year average, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. The government also released 8 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, bringing it near the low hit in July 2023 after the Biden administration tapped the supply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Trump administration has pointed to record-high U.S. oil production — along with new supplies unlocked in Venezuela and through the Jones Act waiver that allows foreign-flagged ships to make deliveries between U.S. ports — as protecting American motorists from spiking prices. It has promised that the eventual opening of the Strait of Hormuz would bring costs back to levels seen in February — or lower.
“President Trump and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “President Trump will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, and he will continue to advance America’s core national security interests.”
The United States “is in an excellent position. We’re in a position of strength” when it comes to Iran, White House National Energy Dominance Council Executive Director Jarrod Agen said during a webinar with consulting firm Widehall on Wednesday. “We do not have a supply problem, obviously.”
Rich Goldberg, former senior counselor for the National Energy Dominance Council, said the White House is “aware that there is a discussion” about the inventories issue and should be examining closely whether global stocks can outlast Iran’s ability to cope with the ongoing U.S. blockade on its oil exports.
“The whole strategy rides on whose timeline is longer, who has a longer runway, and so therefore, if I were in the White House, I’d be studying this very closely,” said Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Goldberg added that some industry officials disagree that a price shock is imminent and expect markets will be able to adapt through a combination of alternative supplies and reduced demand. “I don’t personally know where the White House comes out on it,” he said.
Many market analysts have expressed surprise that oil prices have not reached even higher levels because of the three-month shipping disruption. Early in the conflict, some forecasters predicted prices would go as high as $200 a barrel given that 20 percent of global oil flows through Hormuz. Iran’s attacks on ships in Hormuz has slowed that flow to a trickle, although some crude is being diverted out of the region using pipelines.
“What’s been remarkable is that prices have not moved higher so far, and a big reason for that is the inventory cushion around the world,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy. “But that can’t go on forever.”
The stoppage has caused other impacts in the U.S. markets: Not only have global crude prices gone up as supply from the Middle East dries up, but countries are also increasingly buying American oil and fuel to make up for the loss.
Gasoline stocks are 5 percent lower than the five-year average, and diesel and jet fuel are 3 percent under that mark, according to EIA data. Overall, total U.S. commercial petroleum inventories — including crude oil and finished fuel — are down 52 million barrels from when the war began.
The U.S. SPR release is part of a 400-million barrel effort by members of the International Energy Agency to prevent prices from skyrocketing.
Even with those barrels coming into the market, global petroleum inventories have been falling by roughly 5.8 million barrels a day since the war began, according to Burkhard.
Worldwide stocks now hold around 7.5 billion barrels — a decline of about 500 million barrels from the start of the war. But most of that oil already has buyers and is not being held in reserve, Burkhard said, and inventories in some regions may be hitting or soon to hit operational minimums, he said.
“I’ve never seen inventory numbers fall so much so quickly,” he said. “It is stunning.”
The oil markets have been sensitive to comments from President Donald Trump and retreated last week after he said that a peace deal with Tehran was near that would return shipping traffic to prewar levels. But his remarks Wednesday that the U.S. blockade of the Hormuz could last until Labor Day have raised questions about whether oil tanker traffic out of the Middle East will approach anything near normal levels this summer.
Drained storage tanks are an “iceberg under the water,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said during a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday.
“You may not see immediately on the horizon the actual economic challenges that will be coming, because you look at the flat price and you say, ‘OK, we can muddle through this and Iran will come to terms eventually,’” Croft said. “But if we get in a situation where we have this strait effectively closed, or the strait status quo, and we’re sitting in September or October, then you’re going to be looking at industrial shortages.”
“You may not see immediately on the horizon the actual economic challenges that will be coming, because you look at the flat price and you say, ‘OK, we can muddle through this and Iran will come to terms eventually,’” Croft said. “But if we get in a situation where we have this strait effectively closed, or the strait status quo, and we’re sitting in September or October, then you’re going to be looking at industrial shortages.”
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