Ukraine

Mind your own business and leave people alone.

Americans should heed that admonition, same as anybody else. We've often strayed from it, and we need to get better at not fuckin' with everybody else's bananas.

I like it when people are free to make their own way in the world. But we all have to live here on this shrinking planet, and so we all have to get together and make rules we can all follow - rules that are just - and applicable to everybody in the same way.

So while I love thinking Europe is stepping up and being smarter about things, I have to hope we're not giving up too much of our influence. We have a stake in everything that happens in every part of the world. We all do. So let's try a little harder to drop the imperialist conquest bullshit and figure out how to find the balance between 'I-don't-care-what-you-do-just-don't-do-it-to-me', and getting everybody a seat at the table, with a full plate.

The battle to bring Europe’s biggest military into the EU

Volodymyr Zelensky has the green light for formal membership negotiations – but a long road lies ahead

Ukraine began its long journey out of Russia’s shadow and towards Europe in Kyiv’s historic Maidan square.

More than 100 protesters were killed and over 1,000 injured on the barricades of Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in 2014 as they demanded an end to Moscow’s malign influence.

Some 12 years and an invasion later, more than 100,000 people have died fighting for freedom.

And now, the EU has given Ukraine the green light to start formal membership negotiations with Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.

It is a once-unthinkable step on a long and difficult road of deep reforms and painful scrutiny amid high-stakes diplomacy and an existential war.

Ukrainians at the Maidan, where portraits of fallen protesters stand opposite a vast memorial to the war dead, told The Telegraph it was a fair reward for their sacrifice.

“I was part of the Maidan protests,” Nataliia Kharchenko said at the foot of the Alley of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred, which was renamed in honour of slain activists.

“Ukraine has earned its membership with blood and tears. I can’t answer for the European community, but I know what we want and what we’re fighting for.”

Oleh Kovalenko, 27, said: “Ukraine belongs to Europe, we have a common character, common culture. But even more than that we have defended the border to Europe. It cost us so many lives, so much blood.”

The programmer added: “I hope the EU will keep our promises to us but I think we need to see some signals to have faith. If there’s a club, we should be part of it, and it shouldn’t be seen as a favour to us, it’s our right.”

Earlier this year, amid hopes that a peace deal could be struck between Ukraine and Russia, the US pressured the EU to fast-track Ukraine’s membership bid.

The putative peace deal was expected to call for Ukraine to join the EU by 2027, which would have been impossible if the usual rules had been followed – the full process can take more than a decade.

The EU could not be seen to block the peace deal, so officials brainstormed possible solutions.

They alighted on “reverse enlargement”, effectively giving Ukraine membership in name only and filling in the rights and obligations afterwards as Ukraine completed the necessary domestic reforms.

This was deeply uncomfortable for member states, which did not want any shortcuts to membership.

One EU diplomat told The Telegraph: “It’s just unacceptable across so many member states because it rips the whole merits-based approach to shreds. We all love [Volodymyr] Zelensky, but he’s going to go at one point.

“And then what? Who comes next? And if we have no guarantees on the rule of law, if we have no guarantees on the oligarchy, on the anti-corruption stuff. The concern is, what are we bringing into the EU?”

The EU had no intention of granting Ukraine EU membership after the Maidan protests, which led to the fall of Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Kremlin president, in February 2014.

Instead, it signed a treaty and free-trade deal with Kyiv that stopped far short of bloc membership.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion in 2022 changed things. Four days after his tanks crossed the border, Mr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, applied to join the EU.

But EU governments are not prepared to tear up the rule book, even if many in Brussels accept that Ukrainians have died so Europeans do not have to.

Mariia, 31, speaking in the Maidan, said in response: “I understand they don’t give out membership for free. And there there should be some reforms. But I can say our goal is not going to change.

“I can’t say if Ukraine’s sacrifice is appreciated. I can say I have friends, their husbands are at the front, brothers and fathers, and we are fighting for our security and our future. Maybe Europe understands that, maybe it doesn’t.”

EU diplomats point out that any shortcuts given to Kyiv will also be claimed by the six Western Balkan countries that applied to join years before Ukraine.

The European Commission wants Ukraine to undertake reforms to fight corruption, guarantee judicial independence and align with all EU finance, single market and agricultural laws before joining.

Large swathes of EU law must be transposed on to national law books. Finances and budgets must be pored over by Brussels.

‘Clusters’ on road to membership

The formal membership negotiations that have just been green-lit are to be divided into six “clusters”, starting with talks over democracy and the rule of law aimed at safeguarding Ukraine from failing into authoritarianism.

Each cluster has to be closed before Ukraine can take the next step to becoming a member – and all this in war-time.

And Ukraine presents more difficulties than other candidate countries for the EU – for one thing, no one knows where its final borders will be.

Its substantial agriculture sector would be an asset to the EU but also presents a headache for the bloc’s agricultural subsidies, which are based on acreage.

With a population of as many as 39 million, Ukraine would have real influence on EU policymaking, which not all member states would welcome.

Freedom of movement could lead to a “brain drain” of Ukrainians to the bloc, where they could claim welfare and other benefits.

Then there is the substantial cost of post-war reconstruction, estimated at £445bn, and the effect on the EU cohesion funds designed to raise living standards across the bloc.

EU sources suggested such issues could be finessed with the strategic use of transition periods. But they also admitted the EU would have to make reforms of its own to incorporate Ukraine successfully.

Kyiv has much to offer the EU, not least a defensive wall from further Russian aggression. It has a larger military than any of its European allies, a highly developed defence industry and expertise in drones and warfare that is coveted in a Europe racing to rearm.

But the accession process can be delayed or derailed at any moment, as was the case when Viktor Orban, as prime minister of Hungary, vetoed the formal opening of membership negotiations.

During his unsuccessful campaign for Hungary’s election in April, the pro-Putin Mr Orban accused Peter Magyar, his challenger, of being in cahoots with Mr Zelensky to drag Hungary into the war.

Mr Orban also said ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine were being affected by laws making Ukrainian the primary language in schools and public administration.

After Mr Magyar won a landslide victory to end 16 years of Orbán rule in April, he quickly did a deal on language rights with Mr Zelensky and dropped Budapest’s veto on the negotiation clusters.

Rapid progress

Ukraine has made much faster progress towards membership than most candidate countries.

Marta Kos, the EU’s enlargement commissioner, said last week: “No country has ever achieved such progress on the path to accession while fighting Russia’s most brutal atrocities on its territory.”

In part, that is down to the Ukrainians’ determination to complete the domestic reforms required by the EU as quickly as possible, front-loading some of them before the formal talks began.

However, last week’s EU summit in Brussels gave the strongest sign yet of European leaders’ unwillingness to fast-track Ukraine’s membership.

Before the European Council, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, wrote that enlargement was a “geopolitical necessity” but would take too long.

He sketched out a vision for “associate membership” for Ukraine. This would involve associate membership of the European Commission, European Parliament and participation in European Council meetings, albeit without voting rights.

These observer roles would go hand in hand with gradual alignment to EU law and common foreign policy. There would also be a “snap-back clause” in case of backsliding on the EU’s democratic values.

But EU leaders moved to slam on the brakes in closed-door discussions in Brussels, removing a reference from the final joint declaration that had called for more progress to be made “as soon as possible”.

Mr Zelensky continued to demand fast-track membership, telling EU leaders: “Ukraine merits it because it has paid more than any other European country for its right to be free, independent and European.”

Hungary the sticking point

Numerous diplomatic sources named Mr Magyar as the reason why further progress was not made during the membership debate, which ran for several hours.

They said he had to manage the resentment of Mr Zelensky and Ukraine among Hungarians who had supported Mr Orban.

The new Hungarian prime minister had consented to the first six negotiating clusters being opened, but the next tranche was said to be “too much for him to swallow”.

Kyiv, backed by a handful of EU states, including Germany, wants to open the remaining five clusters as soon as possible.

But Hungary is not alone. Poland and Slovakia joined a chorus of countries voicing concerns over low public support for enlargement in talks between EU ambassadors before the summit.

Polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank revealed that a majority of voters in Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany and even Estonia – one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies – believed the EU’s eastward expansion was a bad idea.

Several sources suggested that the final shape of Ukraine’s membership would only become clear when there was a peace deal.

Whenever and however Ukraine completes its accession negotiations, it will not have cleared the final hurdle.

A joining country must have the unanimous backing of all 27 member states. Some, including Hungary, hold referendums on new members, increasing the jeopardy and uncertainty.

In the Maidan, Daria Sydor, a 20-year-old student, laid flowers at the makeshift memorial to fallen soldiers.

She said: “Joining the EU is our return to our home, it’s very hard because you must change your mindset, change your rules, laws, legislation.

“We have this history of war, we had a lot of revolutions, and Ukrainians always wanted this, but… it’s like a long trip to come home.”