Becoming Unstable

No hurricanes. No storms. No tropical depressions. Nuthin'.

The main reason Earthlings have prospered for a few million years is due to the stability afforded us by a moon that kept the planet's positioning fairly stable, which kept the wind and ocean currents fairly stable, which kept the climates fairly stable, which meant the weather was at least fairly predictable.

Now we hear a lot of, "Gee - this is happening instead of that, and we're not at all sure why."

Google - "what good comes from hurricanes?"

Despite their destructive power, hurricanes play a vital role in Earth's natural systems by redistributing heat from the equator, ending droughts, replenishing freshwater supplies, and delivering essential nutrients to coastal and marine ecosystems.

There are no hurricanes.

And we are so fucked.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been calm so far. Will it last?

Even a relatively calm season can end up leaving a lasting mark.

The peak of hurricane season is little more than a month away, and the front page of the National Hurricane Center website prominently displays a blank map of the Atlantic Ocean that says “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.”

The most active time of the year for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic extends from August through October with a peak on Sept. 10 — but for now the basin remains unusually quiet.

El Niño is playing a major role, with record-warm water pooling across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of this pattern, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter than normal — and perhaps among the tamest on record.

The most recent super El Niño years, in 2015, 1997 and 1982, featured four, three and two Atlantic hurricanes, respectively — all below the seasonal average of seven.

Rising air over the unusually warm Pacific strengthens upper-level winds that sweep into the Atlantic. There, the winds act like a hedge trimmer, constantly pruning the tops of storms before they can organize and intensify. Dry, dusty air from Africa’s Sahara has also recently hindered storm development.

But hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint, and a season that’s been relatively calm can still produce a devastating storm.

As the season’s peak nears, the area north of the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States is one to watch for storms — farther away from El Niño’s harsh winds.