I guess we can stop wondering why Trump keeps whining about Jerome Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates.
And believe me, I don't feel the need to put any more dollars in a banker's pocket than absolutely necessary, so I'm never opposed to knocking a few tenths off the prime. But that idiot in the White House wants the Fed to take a full 3 points off.
The guy has no fuckin' clue what he's doing.
Meanwhile, not only are manufacturers starting to tell horror stories about billion-dollar losses, now we get to worry about housing inventories.
There's some really bad shit heading our way.
Thousands of unsold homes are piling up in the U.S. housing market as Americans— facing climbing prices, historically high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty—buy fewer homes, according to the latest figures.
This year was supposed to bring a rebound of the U.S. housing market, experts said in 2024. Instead, the market has come to a standstill as buyers retreat to the sidelines but prices refuse to budge.
What Is Happening in the U.S. Housing Market?
In June, the total number of unsold homes in the country was up 20 percent compared with a year earlier, according to Realtor.com, while inventory was up by 28.9 percent year-over-year. In the same month, pending home sales were down 1.6 percent from June 2024.
Even though the market did not by any standard perform well, prices continue inching up. In June, the median list price of a typical U.S. home was $440,950, up 0.2 percent since last year.
These trends have continued over the past few weeks, data from real estate brokerage Redfin shows. In the four weeks ending July 6, pending sales in the nationwide market fell 3.5 percent from a year earlier—the second-biggest decline since early February.
Instead of taking a hit, home prices went up—bafflingly so. In the same time frame, the median U.S. home sale price hit an all-time high of $399.633, up 1 percent year-over-year.
The data suggests that the U.S. housing market currently presents a complicated picture. On one hand, plunging sales and growing inventory is putting downward pressure on prices, forcing many sellers to offer reductions to attract reluctant buyers. In June, according to Realtor.com, price cuts were reported on 20.7 percent of listings—the highest share for any June since at least 2016.
On the other hand, there are parts of the country and parts of individual local markets that are faring better than others and where buyers still maintain more power over buyers.
"Some homes are moving fast, others are seeing multiple price reductions," James Gulden, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston, said in a report. "It's not location or price-tier specific; the mixed results permeate in every corner of the market. Prices are still as high as they have ever been, but with homes sitting longer, the market is slowly turning in buyers' favor."
In the South and West, inventory has grown massively and homes for sale are spending more time on the market than they were before the pandemic, pushing prices down. In the Northeast and Midwest, however, inventory remains tight and prices high.
What Does This Mean for You?
There is some good news for buyers, even as home prices have not yet stopped rising.
The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is lower now than it was last year. As of July 9, it was 6.77 percent—still very high, but down from 7.01 percent a year earlier. The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down to 6.67 percent in the week ending July 3 from 6.95 percent a year earlier. In the four weeks ending July 6, the median monthly mortgage payment was $2,708 at a 6.67 percent mortgage rate, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier but still the lowest level since early March.
Buyers are taking notice: according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchase applications were up 9 percent from a week earlier as of the week ending July 4 and up 25 percent from a year earlier.
Growing inventory—especially in Sunbelt markets—is also offering buyers more options and giving them more negotiating power, offering them what are likely the best purchasing conditions in years.
But sellers are starting to clock on the way the market has changed since the pandemic. In May, according to Realtor.com, delistings—the process of pulling for-sale homes out of the market—outpaced overall inventory gains, jumping 35 percent year-to-date and 47 percent year-over-year. In the same month, active listings were up 28.4 percent year-to-date and 31.5 percent year-over-year.
"The spike signals that some sellers would rather wait than negotiate, suggesting recent buyer-friendly momentum could wane," Realtor.com economists wrote.
