Ukraine, Russia, China

Putin fucked up in various ways, aside from some pretty dumbass assumptions that the Ukrainians would just roll over and play dead.

• He didn't bring enough guys

You need a 3:1 advantage in numbers of invaders-to-invadees

You need 1 Russian occupier for every 50 Ukrainian occupy-ees

• He didn't think his own brand of corruption had taken hold in the Russian military almost top to bottom, side to side, and front to back
• He didn't figure on his little excursion becoming a unifying force for NATO
• As rich as he is, he hadn't stolen enough to survive what looks like it could be years of crippling economic sanctions

China is watching this clusterfuck closely, knowing it's practically a lead pipe cinch that Vlad will not survive it.

Xi would need at least 500,000 guys to invade (probably more because it's an amphibious landing), and he'd have to leave all of them on Taiwan for years as an occupying force.

Mike's Guess:

The need to reduce the number of occupation troops is what drives the inevitable slaughter of the occupied country's population, as well as the push to keep throwing more of your own people into the meat grinder. For the guy calling the shots, it becomes a fairly simple matter of "better them than me".

War has always been the stupidest fuckin' thing humans do. And it's even stupider now.

Grey Zone Tactics - Mar 2022

Question 1. How Does China View Competition in the Gray Zone?

Chinese analysts view gray zone actions as measures that powerful countries have employed both historically and in recent decades that are beyond normal diplomacy and other traditional approaches to statecraft but short of direct use of military force for escalation or a conflict. While Chinese scholars do not typically use the term gray zone to describe Chinese gray zone activities, the Chinese conceptualization of military operations other than war (MOOTW) is helpful for understanding how China may use its military for such activities. Chinese analysts characterize coercive or confrontational external-facing MOOTW as stability maintenance, rights protection, or security and guarding operations. China believes that MOOTW should also leverage nonmilitary actors and means.

Question 2. What Drives and Enables Chinese Use of Gray Zone Tactics?

Chinese activities in the gray zone support PRC leadership's overarching domestic, economic, foreign policy, and security objectives in the Indo-Pacific, which Beijing views as China's priority region. Gray zone activities balance China's pursuit of a more favorable external environment by altering the regional status quo in its favor with a desire to act below the threshold of a militarized response from the United States or China's neighbors. Recent developments have provided an increasingly varied toolkit for pressuring other countries across four key domains: geopolitical, economic, military, and cyber/IO. These developments are laws and regulations enabling Beijing to harness nongovernmental personnel and assets growing Chinese geopolitical, economic, and military power and influence vis-à-vis other countries increasing linkages between China's military development and economic growth the integration of military and paramilitary forces.

Question 3. How Does China Employ Gray Zone Tactics?

Overall, China tailors its gray zone activities to the target and has an increasing variety and number of more-coercive tools. Beijing layers the use of multiple gray zone tactics to pressure allies and partners, particularly on issues related to China's core interests. Combining multiple geopolitical, economic, military, and cyber/IO activities means that China no longer has to rely on significant escalation in any single domain and, if needed, can sequence actions to apply pressure in nonmilitary domains before resorting to use of military activity. China also appears to be more cautious and selective in using high-profile gray zone tactics against more-capable countries—for instance, employing a smaller variety of tactics against Japan and India than against Vietnam and the Philippines.

China has increasingly leveraged military tactics, and there is no evidence to suggest that China will use fewer military tactics as its overall military capabilities grow or that improved bilateral relations will discourage China from pressing its territorial claims. Likewise, there is little reason to believe that China will use fewer military gray zone tactics as its geopolitical or economic power increases. China has recently relied heavily on air- and maritime-domain tactics, for example.

China exercises caution in its use of high-profile, bilateral geopolitical and economic tactics and has become more active in wielding its influence in international institutions or via third-party actors. Since at least 2013, China has expanded its involvement on the ground in select regions, recruiting local proxies and engaging in various information efforts. In terms of nonmilitary tactics, China uses geopolitical and bilateral tactics most often.

Question 4. Which PRC Tactics Could the United States Prioritize Countering?

Given the wide range of PRC gray zone tactics and the diverse collection of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States faces the difficult task of determining how to prioritize which PRC activities to counter. The U.S. government, experts, and academics do not currently agree on how to assess which PRC gray zone tactics are most problematic. Policymakers could consider aggregating across three different criteria: (1) the extent to which PRC tactics undermine U.S. objectives and interests in the Indo-Pacific region, (2) how difficult it is for allies and partners to respond to and counter tactics, and (3) how widely China uses specific tactics (against one or multiple allies and partners).

While there are many ways to combine the three indicators, the most balanced approach might be to weight U.S. objectives and interests equally with allied and partner concerns (40 percent each) and the prevalence of PRC tactics less (20 percent). Based on this aggregate method, ten of the 20 most-problematic PRC tactics are military activities that the People's Liberation Army or Chinese paramilitary actors engage in, with many of the tactics involving operations near or in disputed territories. Other military tactics include China engaging in highly publicized and large-scale, cross-service military exercises; establishing military bases or potential dual-use facilities in neighboring countries to threaten a target; and building up or acquiring PRC military capabilities against targets.

Geopolitical, economic, and cyber/IO tactics also ranked among the top 20. While the most-problematic PRC activities were international geopolitical and grassroots economic tactics, other PRC economic activities and grassroots cyber/IO activities in the targeted region were also problematic. Relative to the other tactics, grassroots geopolitical activities and bilateral cyber/IO activities have been less challenging. These findings suggest that the United States should devote significant effort to helping U.S. allies and partners counter PRC international geopolitical and economic tactics (particularly PRC economic activity in the target region or in disputed regions) and address grassroots cyber/IO activities.

Recommendations

• The U.S. government should hold gray zone scenario discussions with key allies and partners to better understand their concerns, responses, and needs.
• The National Security Council or the U.S. Department of State should identify a set of criteria to determine the most-problematic PRC gray zone tactics to counter via whole-of-government efforts.
• The United States could prioritize countering Chinese activities in disputed territories and responding to PRC geopolitical international and economic tactics.
• The U.S. Department of Defense should develop gray zone plans similar to existing operational plans but focused on responding to a range of more-escalatory PRC gray zone scenarios.
• The U.S. Air Force should continue to build out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific and improve regional cyberdefense capabilities to increase domain awareness, identify and attribute PRC activities, and counter PRC cyber/IO tactics.

BETTER MEN THAN THESE

HAVE BEEN TRYING

TO CONQUER THE WORLD

FOR 2,000 GENERATIONS.

AND THE WORLD REMAINS UNDEFEATED

Oops

Call me nutty, but I think the Russians are just totally free-styling at this point. Their invasion of Ukraine is in the crapper, and they don't know what to do about it, so they're just charging around like a bunch of maniacal monkeys, fucking with everybody's bananas, hoping the world will back off because "holy crap - them boys is crazy".

The problem, of course, is that they keep demonstrating a decided shortage of the skills needed to pull off whatever prank they think is a good idea at the time.

And BTW, in the last 130 years, when has it been a good idea to fuck with the US military?

Yes, you can bloody our nose a bit - you can kill some Americans, but the ratio is traditionally about 20:1 in our favor.

This shit is dangerous, and it's almost inevitable that bad shit will happen because some joker decides to pull some stupid glad-hat stunt, or somebody else doesn't get the word to stay cool, or they just get fed up and start shooting at the wrong guys at the wrong time, or whatever.

Nobody gets out this kinda nonsense unburnt.

Pentagon releases video of drone incident after US, Russia trade accusations

Summary

• First known direct U.S.-Russia confrontation since invasion
• Moscow says U.S. directly participating in war
• U.S. accuses Russia of behaving aggressively and irresponsibly

WASHINGTON/KYIV, March 16 (Reuters) - The Pentagon released on Thursday a video showing a Russian military jet intercept a U.S. drone downed over the Black Sea two days ago, in what was the first direct encounter between the world's leading nuclear powers since the Ukraine war began.

The rare Pentagon move came a day after U.S. and Russian defence ministers and military chiefs held phone conversations over the incident, in which the MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed into the Black Sea while on a reconnaissance mission in international airspace.

In the declassified, roughly 40-second video, a Russian Su-27 fighter jet comes very close to the drone and dumps liquid near it, in what U.S. officials say was an apparent effort to damage the American aircraft as it flew over the Black Sea.

It also shows the loss of the video feed after a second pass by a Russian jet, which the Pentagon says resulted from its collision with the drone. The video ends with images of the drone's damaged propeller, which the Pentagon says resulted from the collision, making the aircraft inoperable.

"There is a pattern of behaviour recently where there is a little bit more aggressive actions being conducted by the Russians," General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Wednesday, adding it was unclear whether the Russian pilots had intended to strike the drone.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told his U.S. counterpart that U.S. drone flights near Crimea's coast "were provocative in nature" and could lead to "an escalation ... in the Black Sea zone," a ministry statement said.

JOINT RESPONSIBILITY

Russia, the statement said, has "no interest" in escalation "but will in future react in due proportion" and the two countries should "act with a maximum of responsibility", including by having military lines of communication in a crisis.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to offer any details about his conversation with Shoigu, including whether he criticized the Russian intercept.

However Austin added: "The United States will continue to fly and to operate wherever international law allows. And it is incumbent on Russia to operate its military aircraft in a safe and professional manner."

The incident has been a reminder of the dangers of direct confrontation between the United States and Russia over Ukraine, which Western allies are supporting with intelligence and weapons.

What If Peace Breaks Out?

Best be keepin' an eye on them pesky Georgians, Vlad.

Ukraine

A day or two ago, Prigozhin was making noise about "if Wagner is withdrawn from Bakhmut, the whole line will collapse." At the time, I thought he was issuing a not-so-vague threat - ie: give me what I want or I'm outa here, and you can kiss the Donbas good-bye.

Now I'm thinking Shoigu and Putin may be having to consider stripping their western front in order to shore up the defense of Crimea.

Of course, I don't know much about such things, but something's cooking, and it's starting to smell like several more "tragic accidents" are about to befall some policy makers at the Kremlin.

Слава Україні 🌎🌏🌍❤️🇺🇦
... and stay lucky, you magnificent bastards.

Pretending To Be Clean

When the USSR crapped out in the late 80s - early 90s, it became the wild west. For years, Russia was where Milton Friedman's gang of merry economic shock therapy practitioners got to apply his totally fucked up "Unfettered Free Market Capitalism" theories.

Poppy Bush sent Bob Strauss to help the transition, thinking a little "kinder gentler" window dressing would help keep things calm, but the scramble was on, and there would be almost literally nothing left on the carcass when the Soviet State Assets had been auctioned off to - or flat-out stolen by - the oligarch buzzards.

Enter Bill Browder, who's not exactly one of the bad guys, but definitely someone who was pretty much blinded to the shitty behavior going on all around him, as he concentrated on taking advantage of the new-found riches made available by privatizing the Russian government.

If you're OK with what Putin's up to, you're gonna fuckin' love the shit we can look forward to if we allow the GOP to continue with their American Plutocracy Project.

Russia vs Ukraine

A rule-of-law democracy right next door in Ukraine threatens everything Putin needs Russians to believe about the world.

It's absolutely no mystery why Republicans need Putin to win in Ukraine.

Timothy Snyder with everything you ever wanted to know about how it all came about, and where it might go.

Shifting The Blame

Typical. Instead of looking at Russia's invasion of Ukraine and seeing what an asshole Putin is for launching a war of conquest, China says we should look at it and see the big bad American boogey man.

Permanent Standard Disclaimer:

That's not to say the US has nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to fucking with things we have no business fucking with.

But this is not one of those things.

Yes, we have a vested interest in a free and democratic Ukraine, and helping Ukraine in service to that interest is good dual-purpose policy.

The spread of democracy is an all-round good thing in itself. And whenever democracy takes hold anywhere, it works against autocratic dickheads everywhere - like Putin and Xi. And also against plutocratic dickheads like most of the "conservatives" here in USAmerica, Inc.

As always, I maintain a firm belief that forces are at work all over the joint trying to move every country towards a global plutocracy. But that's a slightly different rant.

The focus here is on the way these dickheads try to deflect and shift the blame. They either blame the victim (Putin'a bullshit about "De-Nazification"), or they deflect to something like his secondary rationalization of "NATO is out to get us", which is what Xi is picking up on, with the variation of "everything bad that happens can be blamed on Washington".

Democracy in Ukraine is in fact a "threat to Russian", but it's only a threat to "Putin's Russia", and it's in Xi's best interest to lean in favor of a fellow-autocrat, while trying not to look like he's directly supporting Putin's war. And that's another exercise in selective reasoning because of Xi's ambitions of "taking Taiwan back".

It's been said that Geopolitics is a worldwide poker game where everybody's cheating and everybody knows everybody's cheating. So it should never come as a surprise when some event or series of events reveals what a fucked up mess it really is.

Anyway ...

A year later, China blames U.S. ‘hegemony’ — not Russia — for war in Ukraine

Ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has launched a public diplomacy offensive to wrest control of the narrative about its role in the conflict, trying to clear itself of accusations that it has sided with Russia while accusing the United States of turning the conflict into a “proxy” war.

Few of the positions staked out by Chinese officials in a flurry of speeches and documents this week are new, but they have underscored why Beijing continues to stand by Moscow even as it professes “deep concern” about the conflict: It considers the United States — not Russia — the progenitor of global insecurity, including in Ukraine.

Beijing insists it is neutral in the conflict, but those claims routinely clash with its rhetorical and diplomatic support for Russia.

That was illustrated this week, with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, arriving in Moscow in a show of solidarity with Russia — especially when contrasted with President Biden’s unannounced trip to Kyiv, where he walked the streets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The China-Russia relationship has stood the test of stormy international circumstances and remained “as stable as Mount Tai,” Wang told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, using a Chinese idiom for rock-solid.

“Crisis and chaos appear repeatedly before us, but within crisis there is opportunity,” he said.

By actively responding to the challenges of the times, the two nations can bring about an even deeper comprehensive strategic partnership, and that relationship “will not be overpowered by a third party’s coercion or pressure” because it is built on a strong economic, political and cultural foundation, Wang added.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Russia some time this year, but the Kremlin declined Wednesday to be drawn on reports that it could be as soon as April.

From the beginning of the war, China has tried to protect its rapidly deepening economic and political ties with Russia at the same time it tried to assure Western audiences that it wants peace and should not be a target for sanctions.

But as China’s role as a lifeline for an isolated Russia grows, it is becoming harder for Beijing to stay on the sidelines.

The Foreign Ministry in Beijing has declined to comment on reports that Xi will deliver a “peace speech” on Friday, exactly one year since Russia launched its invasion, saying only that China will issue a document clarifying its stance on the day.

The problem with China’s story of being an honest broker is that Russia remains a “key ally in the effort to push back against the U.S.-led order,” said Arthur Kroeber, partner at the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.

“The true purpose of Xi’s speech” — assuming it takes place — “will be to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies, by suggesting that China, not the U.S., is the real advocate of a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war,” he wrote in a note on Wednesday.

The latest propaganda blitz also provides a clearer picture of Xi’s foreign policy priorities as he embarks on a third term in power. Bringing about an end to the war is only one item in Xi’s ambitious agenda to reshape the global order so that the United States and its allies cannot slow China’s rise or challenge its territorial claims. And to that end, China remains closely aligned with Russia.

An attempt to justify China’s stance on the war in Ukraine to a conflicted domestic audience, the new wave of propaganda is also a way to rebuff growing concern that Beijing will step up support for Putin’s war effort as it enters its second year.

Beijing has rejected U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning that China might be considering providing “lethal” support to Russia as a “wild accusation” and accused the United States of wanting Ukraine to “fight till the last Ukrainian.”

“It’s plain for the world to see who is calling for dialogue and striving for peace and who is adding fuel to the fire, handing out knives and instigating hostility,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday.

Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Blinken’s claim was a “strategic statement” meant to warn China. “It’s not a substantive accusation, but rather a part of U.S. strategy to tell China not to have the intention [to do so],” he said.

But it’s not just the United States that is concerned about China’s intentions. Zelensky told the German daily Die Welt this week that he hoped China would make a “pragmatic assessment” and avoid allying itself with Russia’s war effort, because if it did “there will be a world war.”

In response to fears that the conflict could expand, Wang Wen, a professor at Renmin University, said it was wrong for Zelensky to speculate about Beijing’s actions. Instead, “he should thank China for promoting humanitarian aid to Ukraine. If China really were to support Russia, then Zelensky’s life would get even worse,” he said.

(In the month after the invasion, China gave Ukraine $725,000 of humanitarian aid and $1.5 million in other forms of aid. It hasn’t announced additional support since then.)

Seeing the United States as a source of instability — while giving aggression from Russia and other authoritarian states a pass — is a longtime stance of the Chinese Communist Party. But under Xi, it is a worldview that has become more deeply embedded into China’s foreign policy and echoed by its national security establishment.

Lu Xiang, a researcher at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the true threat to Ukraine’s autonomy is Western support. Having once been part of the Soviet Union means that “if a big country from outside the region uses Ukraine as a chess piece to weaken Russia’s strategic interests, then that means [Ukraine’s] sovereign interests will of necessity be suppressed,” he said.

At the core of Xi’s priorities for promoting China’s security is an effort to counteract the United States’ influence in the international order, often by enlisting countries that share similar grievances.

Chinese complaints about American “abuse of hegemony” in global military, political and economic affairs were listed in a five-page document issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Monday, which called the Ukraine conflict a case of the United States “repeating its old tactics of waging proxy … wars.”

Separately this week, China issued a “concept paper” that staked out positions on global hot-spot issues, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the Pacific islands.

China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, released the document at an event in Beijing, running through a string of broad commitments to uphold the U.N. charter, reject the use of nuclear weapons and protect territorial integrity, while also taking thinly veiled swipes at the United States for “abusing unilateral sanctions” and building security blocs.

The document, which did not mention Russia, made only passing reference to the “Ukraine crisis” as an issue to be resolved through dialogue. It repeated that “legitimate security concerns of all countries” should be taken seriously — a phrase often used by Beijing in defense of Moscow.

Qin also used the event to call for countries to stop “clamoring about ‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.’”

Since the start of the war, China has tried to draw a distinction between Russia’s actions and its own escalating military aggression in the Taiwan Strait. For many in the self-governed island democracy, however, the war has been a wake-up call for the need to be better prepared to repel an attack from China.

Missing from the newly proactive stance China laid out this week is any indication that Beijing is willing to take a leading role in peace negotiations.

“Neither Russia nor Ukraine can defeat each other completely in the short term,” said Fudan University’s Ding. “China has emphasized the need to stop the war and promote peace, but it has not explicitly said that it wants to be a mediator in this war, and it is very difficult to do so in practice. Although China has a better relationship with Russia, it is a question of to what extent Russia will listen to China’s thoughts.”

Putin Speaks

Early this morning, Vladimir Putin delivered more or less the Russian SOTU.

To save time, I've summed it up for y'all - here's what he said:

“The West wants us to suffer. They made us invade Ukraine. The conflict will never end. I'm gonna go play with my nukes for a while. Fuck everybody but us.”

And the crowd went wild!

Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Moscow’s participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the U.S., announcing the move Tuesday in a bitter speech where he made clear he would not change his strategy in the war in Ukraine.

In his long-delayed state-of-the-nation address, Putin cast his country — and Ukraine — as victims of Western double-dealing and said it was Russia, not Ukraine, fighting for its very existence.

“We aren’t fighting the Ukrainian people,” Putin said in a speech days before the war’s first anniversary on Friday. “The Ukrainian people have become hostages of the Kyiv regime and its Western masters, which have effectively occupied the country.”

The speech reiterated a litany of grievances that the Russian leader has frequently offered as justification for the widely condemned military campaign while vowing no military let-up in a conflict that has reawakened fears of a new Cold War.

On top of that, Putin sharply upped the ante by declaring that Moscow would suspend its participation in the so-called New START Treaty. The pact, signed in 2010 by the U.S. and Russia, caps the number of long-range nuclear warheads the two sides can deploy and limits the use of missiles that can carry atomic weapons.

- more -

Another Peter Pan Story

Russian defense official dies after falling from St. Petersburg tower window

A top Russian defence official has been found dead after apparently falling from the 16th floor of a high-rise apartment in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Russian media outlets reported.

At around 8 a.m., the body of a woman was found by police on the sidewalk in front of a tower block in the Kalininsky district. The woman was identified as Marina Yankina, 58, head of finance and procurement for the Russian Defence Ministry’s Western Military District, one of five arms of the Russian armed forces.

Located in western Russia, the Western Military District has suffered some of the heaviest losses in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Yankina’s death has been preliminarily ruled a suicide by Russia’s Investigative Committee, according to Fontanka, a local paper in St. Petersburg.

These Honored Dead

As difficult as it can be to get the straight dope here in USAmerica Inc, in a place like Russia right now, it's hard for people to get even a slight taste of the truth about what their government is doing.

But there are cracks in the monolith. As more people get hip to what's going on, the whole thing will start to crumble, and for the third time in a little over 100 years, Russia will be badly mauled by political upheaval.

Late last year, activists were tipped off about the heightened activity at this gravesite, which lies adjacent to a cemetery used by the local community. Then, it contained about 50 graves. Now, it has about 300...

BAKINSKAYA, Russia — It was a lonely funeral. Four narrow caskets, recently pulled from the back of a covered truck, rested on stands under an insistent snowfall as an Orthodox priest performed last rites. Three gravediggers in tattered jackets looked on with their hands folded solemnly. An excavator was parked close by, ready to dig more graves.

“Lord have mercy,” the priest chanted as he blessed the bodies of fallen Russian soldiers with incense, his cassock buffeted by a freezing wind.

Once those corpses were lowered, four more dead soldiers in crimson-covered caskets were sung their last rites.

This the final resting place for many of the men who lost their lives fighting for the private mercenary force known as Wagner, which has been leading the Russian military effort in the monthslong battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, a tycoon who has a close relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin, has lauded his force as “probably the most experienced army in the world today.”

But the rapidly growing cemetery in Bakinskaya, a town near the Black Sea, is evidence that his mercenary army — which includes many poorly trained ex-convicts — is sustaining tremendous battlefield losses. On a recent weekday, nine men had their remains interred at this relatively new cemetery, established for Wagner recruits who had indicated that they preferred to be buried there.

Late last year, activists were tipped off about the heightened activity at this gravesite, which lies adjacent to a cemetery used by the local community. Then, it contained about 50 graves. Now, it has about 300, and those observing the cemetery say between four and eight soldiers are being buried per day, on average; local media estimates are even higher, reporting as many as 16 graves per day.

Almost all the graves, sheathed in fresh snow, were identical, though occasionally a slim Muslim headstone stood at the head of the grave, rather than an Orthodox cross. Each has a wreath of plastic flowers in the style of the Wagner logo — red, yellow and black with a golden star in the middle. Only one, the grave of Andrey V. Orlov, who died on Dec. 15 at the age of 28, had a photograph, and an extra wreath of flowers.

Burials here were gaining little notice until late December, when an antiwar activist, Vitaly V. Wotanovsky, started publishing images of the cemetery, including the names and dates of birth of the dead, on his Telegram channel. Ten days later, on New Year’s Day, photographs of Mr. Prigozhin laying flowers on the graves emerged.

“Since November, the number of deaths has increased dramatically,” Mr. Wotanovsky, 51, said in an interview at his home in the nearby city of Krasnodar. In the past he had counted around four burials a day, he said, but noted that on one recent day there were 11.

Mr. Wotanovsky, who has spent 20 days in detention since the invasion began because of his antiwar activities, has an almost encyclopedic knowledge of his region’s cemeteries. He collects tips from local residents and keeps a running tally of the war dead buried in the area and posts pictures of the grave markers on his Telegram channel. He said that informing the public about the names and identities of the fallen was his only way to protest and to try to change public opinion.

“This is the only normal, legal way to tell people that war is death, that it is bad, so that they somehow reflect on it in their heads,” said Mr. Wotanovsky, a Russian army veteran who spent years working for the military as a radio engineer.

Many of the Wagner fighters buried in Bakinskaya had been convicted of crimes, according to an analysis by The New York Times. Western intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government and a prisoners’ rights association, Russia Behind Bars, estimate that around 40,000 inmates have joined the Russian forces since July — about 10 percent of the country’s prison population. Ukrainian officials have claimed that nearly 30,000 of them have deserted or been killed or wounded, but that number could not be independently verified.

One of the gravediggers took pride in pointing out to visiting journalists that the caskets were placed not on the ground but on individual stands “in a dignified manner.”

Some observers have speculated that the graveyard is a public relations ploy by Mr. Prigozhin, who is increasingly seeking credit for capturing Ukrainian territory and is believed to harbor political ambitions.

“Unlike the general tendency in Russia, which is to try to minimize casualties and downplay the loss of life, Mr. Prigozhin is trying to promote the military heroism and sacrifice” of his soldiers, said Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at RUSI, a defense think tank in Britain, who studies the group.

Not far from the cemetery, a 20-minute ride along the region’s highway, stands a compound containing a chapel erected to commemorate the dead Wagner fighters. On a recent visit, the gates around the compound were completely shut. Videos of Mr. Prigozhin visiting the site have shown walls containing the cremated remains of an unknown number of fighters.

Another 10 minutes down the highway is the Molkino base, which observers say has been a training camp for Wagner soldiers since 2015. According to Russian media reports, the Ministry of Defense has spent at least 1 billion rubles, or $13.6 million, developing the training facility.

The base is off limits to civilians, but soldiers in various uniforms were the main customers at several cafes, fast food joints and a convenience store in the vicinity.

One soldier, who gave his name as Abkhat, said he was from the Samara region, near the border with Kazakhstan, and that he was being dispatched to Ukraine that evening.

He said he was 30 and that he “volunteered not for the money, but out of love for my country.”

In the regional capital of Krasnodar, a city of 900,000 people, the war is never far away. Civil aviation has been suspended since Feb. 24 of last year, the day Russia invaded, and fighter jets fly training missions overhead, complementing the ongoing tactical exercises at Molkino.

The Krasnodar area, with the third-biggest population of Russia’s 85 regions, has the second highest number of cases for “discrediting the Russian army,” a common charge made against anyone who expresses opposition to the war. A repeat offense can result in up to 10 years in jail.

In one case making headlines and alarming local antiwar activists, a married couple discussed their opposition to the invasion between themselves as they dined at a restaurant. The establishment’s owner called the police, who charged the husband and wife with petty hooliganism. The wife was additionally accused of “discrediting” Russia’s army.

Despite the intimidating climate, Mr. Wotanovsky’s close friend, Viktor V. Chirikov, also an army veteran, believes that the simple act of posting about the dead will eventually bring about not only an end to the war, but the collapse of the system Mr. Putin built.

“Do you know why the Russian Empire fell?” he said in Mr. Wotanovsky’s kitchen. “Because of the number of coffins coming back from the First World War fronts to the villages where the fallen lived.”

“It’s one thing to watch on TV or the computer ‘oh, they are fighting there, they are killing there,’ like in computer shooting games,’’ he added. “But people start to ask ‘why are we doing this?’ when they see the coffin or grave of their school friends.”

The two men said they would continue to count the dead as casualties mount. At the cemetery in Bakinskaya, the plot appears to have room for many more bodies.

“They are still going to need more space,” Mr. Wotanovsky said.

Snubbed

Munich Security Conference invites opposition figures Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky instead of Kremlin representatives

The organizers of the Munich Security Conference have invited members of Russia’s opposition, including chess champion Garry Kasparov and exiled former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, to the event instead of delegates from the Russian government this year, conference chairman ​​Christoph Heusgen said in an interview published Wednesday.

Explaining the decision, Heusgen said that the daily statements coming out of the Kremlin have given no indication that “Russia will retreat even one iota from what Putin has declared the goal of the war, namely, the destruction of Ukraine.”

In 2022, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia declined to participate in the Munich Security Conference, claiming it was “transforming into a transatlantic forum” and “losing its inclusiveness and objectivity.”

Russia was not invited to the Munich Security Conference

The organizers of the forum do not want to give the Russian representatives a platform for propaganda. Oppositionists Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky were invited to the conference instead.

Representatives of the Russian government are not invited to the Munich International Security Conference this year, conference chairman Christoph Heusgen said in an interview with MDR television on Wednesday, February 1. He explained this by the unwillingness to provide a platform for the authoritative international forum on security for the propaganda of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"The statements that we hear daily from the Kremlin do not allow us to conclude that Russia will retreat even one iota from what Putin proclaimed as the goal of the war, namely the destruction of Ukraine ," Heusgen explained. According to him, instead of government officials from Russia, representatives of civil society and the opposition were invited, including former world chess champion Garry Kasparov and disgraced oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Importance of aid to Ukraine

Heusgen, who previously served as foreign policy adviser to ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, defended Germany's support for Ukraine .

“Putin has made it clear that he ultimately wants to recreate the Soviet Union. If the Russian president succeeds in Ukraine , he will eventually invade the Baltic countries as well. Since these countries are members of NATO, this will directly affect Germany, allied obligations. This needs to be prevented, so Ukraine needs to be helped ," Christoph Heusgen said.

Ukraine

The war won't last forever. Russia will leave Ukraine. Putin will be dead or hiding.

There will be a reckoning - of sorts. Probably not to the satisfaction of all who've suffered great loss, but it will be something. And assholes with dreams of empire, and ambitions for conquest will be pushed down again for a while.

'Twas ever thus, and ever thus 'twill be.

Radio Free Europe - Russian atrocities

Population Implosion

Reports of Russia's demise have been exaggerated - but not by a whole lot.

The Infographics Show

Ruh-Oh, Reorge

Russian Oligarch’s Cousin Funneled Cash to N.Y. Politician

Andrew Intrater, money manager to Russian Viktor Vekselberg, gave $56,100 to committees tied to Rep.-elect George Devolder-Santos, who called Ukraine “totalitarian.”

The cousin and cash handler for one of Russia’s most notorious oligarchs poured tens of thousands of dollars into electing a newly minted congressman-elect who called Ukraine’s government “a totalitarian regime.”

Republican George Devolder-Santos vanquished Democrat Robert Zimmerman this month in the race for a House seat covering parts of Long Island and the New York City borough of Queens—riding a red wave that swept the Empire State this cycle, and washing away two decades of Democratic dominance in the district.

Devolder-Santos had long courted conservative media attention by presenting himself as a “walking, living, breathing contradiction”—a gay Latino millennial born in New York City, who is also a fervent devotee of ex-President Donald Trump.

For much of his professional career, which included a stint as regional director at an alleged Ponzi scheme, the Republican used the name George Devolder. However, as he ventured further into the world of politics, he began to increasingly use the name George Devolder-Santos or simply George Santos.

He stood out to the Washington Post earlier this year for his remarks in the aftermath of Russia’s bloody, unprovoked assault on Ukraine.

“It’s not like Ukraine is a great democracy. It’s a totalitarian regime. They’re not a great bastion of freedom,” the congressman-to-be told the paper.

He has insisted that Ukraine “welcomed the Russians into their provinces”—an apparent reference to President Vladimir Putin’s 2014 invasion to prop up rogue separatist parties—and that Ukrainians in the east “feel more Russian than Ukrainian,” even though every single Ukrainian province overwhelmingly voted for independence in 1991.

It was not the first time Devolder-Santos had parroted Kremlin talking points. In the weeks before Putin’s brutal, blundering attack upon his western neighbor, the candidate repeatedly took to Twitter to accuse President Joe Biden of plotting to “start a war” with Russia and deploy American troops to Ukraine.

But unreported until now is that by the time Devolder-Santos made these statements, his congressional ambitions had already received a $32,800 boost from a controversial figure linked to the uppermost echelons of the Russian regime—and that support would more than double in size during the months ahead.

The cash came from Andrew Intrater and his wife, who variously listed her occupation as “homemaker” and “analyst” for Falcon AI, one of her husband’s subsidiary firms.

Intrater’s main venture is today called Sparrow Capital, but it previously used the name Columbus Nova—and its primary function has long been to manage the investments of Intrater’s cousin, Viktor Vekselberg, one of Putin’s wealthiest and most influential courtiers.

So tightly intertwined is Intrater’s business with that of his relative, who snatched up swaths of Russia’s aluminum and fuel industries during the post-Soviet period, that Columbus Nova described itself in 2007 Securities and Exchange Commission filings as “the U.S.-based affiliate” of Vekselberg’s Renova Group. In fact, SEC records show that “Columbus Nova” was merely a trade name, and the company was in fact incorporated as Renova U.S. Management LLC until it rechristened itself Sparrow Capital in 2018.

The rebrand came just months after the Department of the Treasury froze almost all of the company’s assets for its tight ties to the heavily sanctioned Vekselberg. The following year, Intrater became a national figure when it surfaced that his firm had paid half a million dollars to longtime Trump fixer Michael Cohen, and the pair had exchanged hundreds of phone calls and text messages during the 2016 campaign.

Intrater sued the federal government in hopes of regaining access to his fortune, but a judge slapped the effort down in 2020. However, the businessman persisted and ultimately reached what court records refer to as an “administrative agreement” regarding at least part of the corporate accounts in late 2021. However, the case file does not include this document, and Intrater’s team did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Intrater’s support for Devolder-Santos dates to the GOP pol’s first failed bid for Congress in 2020, which got a $11,600 cash infusion from the financier and his bride, reflecting the maximum contribution amount then allowed.

But after that initial defeat federal donation limits would prove a small obstacle. Starting in March 2021, Intrater and his wife began pouring tens of thousands of dollars into auxiliary committees backing Devolder-Santos: $20,000 directly to GADS PAC, a leadership political action committee bearing the candidate’s initials, plus $12,100 to Devolder Santos Nassau Victory, a joint fundraising committee formed with the Nassau County Republican Party. Devolder Santos Nassau Victory had to drop $10,000 of that gift into the Nassau GOP’s federal account—but that account made just two federal expenditures this cycle, the larger of them by far being the purchase of lawn signs supporting Devolder-Santos.

All this came on top of $12,400 Intrater and Pentinen gave the Devolder-Santos for Congress committee.

The individual who answered a phone associated with Devolder-Santos identified himself to The Daily Beast as his campaign coordinator, but declined to share his name. He would not speak directly about the Intrater gifts, but insisted that the national Republican Party had set the candidate up with most of his large contributors.

But Devolder-Santos was far and away the largest beneficiary of Intrater’s largesse this year. Further, Devolder-Santos’s committees are the only ones that received gifts from Intrater’s wife this cycle.

The campaign coordinator directed The Daily Beast to forward all questions to a press email, but messages sent to the address provided received no reply.

Shortly after the Russian onslaught against Ukraine began, and public opinion swung toward Kyiv, Devolder-Santos appeared to soften his stance on the country. In a Fox News interview, he highlighted that his grandfather was born in the Ukrainian capital, and on Twitter he has urged prayers for the country.

However, he seems to have avoided the topic since late February, and it is unclear at this point whether he will join the anti-Ukraine faction within the narrow GOP majority in seeking to sever aid to the embattled nation.

Putin's Pals

And another one does the old Peter Pan routine while out of the country.

Russian sausage tycoon Pavel Antov has been found dead at an Indian hotel, two days after a friend died during the same trip.

They were visiting the eastern state of Odisha and the millionaire, who was also a local politician, had just celebrated his birthday at the hotel.

Antov was a well known figure in the city of Vladimir, east of Moscow.

Last summer he denied criticising Russia's war in Ukraine after a message appeared on his WhatsApp account.

The millionaire's death is the latest in a series of unexplained deaths involving Russian tycoons since the start of the Russian invasion, many of whom have openly criticised the war.

Reports in Russian media said Mr Antov, 65, had fallen from a window at the hotel in the city of Rayagada on Sunday. Another member of his four-strong Russian group, Vladimir Budanov, died at the hotel on Friday.

Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma of Odisha police said Mr Budanov was found to have suffered a stroke while his friend "was depressed after his death and he too died". The Russian consul in Kolkata, Alexei Idamkin, told the Tass news agency that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events".

Tourist guide Jitendra Singh told reporters that Mr Budanov may have "consumed a lot of alcohol as he had liquor bottles".

Pavel Antov founded the Vladimir Standard meat processing plant and in 2019 Forbes estimated his fortune at some $140m (£118m) at the top of Russia's rich list of lawmakers and civil servants.

He played an important role at the legislative assembly in Vladimir, heading a committee on agrarian policy and ecology. The assembly's deputy chairman Vyacheslav Kartukhin said he had died in "tragic circumstances".

Late last June he appeared to react to a Russian missile attack on a residential block in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv that left a man dead and his seven-year-old daughter and her mother wounded.

A WhatsApp message on Antov's account described how the family were pulled out of the rubble: "It's extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror."

The message was deleted and Antov then posted on social media that he was a supporter of the president, a "patriot of my country" and backed the war.

The WhatsApp message had come from someone whose opinion on the "special military operation in Ukraine" he strongly disagreed with, he insisted. It had been posted accidentally on his messenger and was a highly annoying misunderstanding, he said.

Several high-profile Russian tycoons have died in mysterious circumstances since the war began.

In September the head of Russia's oil giant Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, apparently fell from a hospital window in Moscow.

Ukraine

The worst-kept secret - even inside Russia - is that Putin's getting his ass kicked in Ukraine.

Something I didn't know is that Vlad has made plans to bail if things get too hot.

Putin has a plan to flee to South America if he loses the war in Ukraine, former aide says

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, 11-29-2022

 Contributor/Getty Images

• The Kremlin started coming up with an evacuation plan for Putin in the spring, a former aide said.
• It involves fleeing to Venezuela or Argentina, ex-speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov said.
• Putin first considered a plan to evacuate to China — but later rejected the idea, Gallyamov said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a plan to flee to exile in South America if he loses the war in Ukraine, a former aide said on Tuesday.

The Kremlin began working on a backup plan, unofficially dubbed "Noah's Ark", in the spring said Abbas Gallyamov, a political consultant and ex-speechwriter to Putin, in a Telegram post.

Gallyamov cited unnamed insiders for his information. He has not worked for Putin since 2010 and is himself living in exile from Russia. He framed the evacuation as an extreme contingency plan.

Analysts do not generally anticipate Putin being forced from power, despite the heavy setbacks in the Ukraine invasion.

Former Western diplomats and government officials told Reuters in October that his grip on power remained firm. US officials in May told CNN that there was no immediate prospect of Putin being ousted.

The emergency plan involves "finding new lands where you can go if the homeland becomes completely uncomfortable," Gallyamov said.

"The leader's entourage does not exclude that he will lose the war, lose power and he will have to urgently evacuate somewhere," he added.

He also said that Putin first considered a plan to evacuate to China — but later rejected the idea on the basis that the chances of "cooperation" from the Chinese would most likely be slim.

"The Chinese are too self-conscious and too contemptuous of others — especially losers. Hope, as it has now become clear, is not enough for them," he wrote.

Argentina and Venezuela are now among the top two options for Putin to flee to, Gallyamov said, adding that Russian oligarch Igor Sechin has a good relationship with authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Sechin, who is Putin's right-hand man, has been put in charge of the evacuation plan, Gallyamov said.

Insider was unable to independently verify these claims.

Gallyamov first worked in Putin's speech-writing team from 2000 to 2001, and then from 2008 to 2010. He has been living in exile in Israel since 2018.

He has regularly commented on the state of the war in Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion on February 24.

Gallyamov's comments come amid ongoing reports that Moscow's forces continue to suffer battlefield defeats and lose territory to Ukrainian troops.

In a televised address on Wednesday, Putin admitted that it could be a very long war and also warned that the risk of nuclear war was growing.