Apr 9, 2021

The Daddy State Slips - A Little

Interesting how Mitch McConnell first comes out with that ridiculous sound bite about "corporations oughta stay outa politics", and then a day later, he flips a U turn like a drunk comin' up on a check point on New Year's Eve.

WaPo: (pay wall)

Opinion: Republicans’ unexpected rupture with corporate America

Republicans learned a valuable lesson this past week: There’s more to capitalism than tax cuts.

Turns out successful capitalists also need to keep their customers happy.

For a long time, the Republican Party had what it believed was a tacit deal with corporate America. Companies donated enormous sums to GOP campaigns and aligned groups, and in exchange, Republicans delivered tax cuts: on corporate profits, capital gains, estates. Whatever other agenda items Republicans pursued — on immigration, civil rights or anything else — corporate America would generally keep its mouth shut. So long as the tax cuts kept flowing, the only “speech” that corporations engaged in came from their wallets, which in turn were fattened by those tax cuts.

An un-virtuous cycle, if you will.

But recently, something funny happened. Democrats, having achieved unified control of government, are threatening to reverse the major corporate tax cut Republicans passed in 2017. Yet corporate America is criticizing Republicans, and for something unrelated: legislation in Georgia, Texas and other states that threatens to strip Americans of their voting rights.

Republicans are furious that corporations appear so ungrateful.

“I found it completely discouraging to find a bunch of corporate CEOs getting in the middle of politics,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) whined Monday. He fumed on Tuesday that his “warning, if you will, to corporate America is to stay out of politics.” Then he hastened to add: “I’m not talking about political contributions.”

McConnell wasn’t the only politico suggesting that companies should butt out of politics (except when it comes to contributions, of course) if they wanted to continue reaping fiscal benefits. Georgia legislators were more explicit about what corporations need to do to keep the tax-cut gravy train rolling.

Last week, the Georgia House of Representatives voted to revoke a break on fuel taxes that benefits Atlanta-based Delta Airlines, which had criticized the state’s recent voting law. House Speaker David Ralston (R) explained: “You don’t feed a dog that bites your hand. You gotta keep that in mind sometimes.” Apparently — shockingly! — this tax break had not been based on some abstract notion of public welfare or good governance or economy-boosting policy but, rather, a perceived quid pro quo. (Georgia’s Senate adjourned before taking up the legislation.)

There are a couple of takeaways here.

One is that what had recently been an extremely anodyne stance for companies to embrace — that voting is good — is now, somehow, construed as worthy of political retaliation. This says more about how far out on a limb Republicans are, not corporations. Despite spin that they are promoting “election integrity,” GOP legislators in dozens of states have introduced bills that include potent weapons for disenfranchising voters.

Georgia’s law, for instance, allows political appointees to seize control of election planning and ballot counting from local officials whenever those political appointees see fit. Had this law been in place last year, it might have enabled the GOP to overturn the results of the presidential election, and to find those “11,780 votes” Donald Trump was seeking. Even Georgia’s Republican lieutenant governor, Geoff Duncan, acknowledged the provision was “the fallout from the 10 weeks of misinformation that flew in from former president Donald Trump,” rather than any attempt at genuinely improving election functioning.

Second, for the most part, these corporations aren’t criticizing anti-voter bills out of the goodness of their hearts. They’re doing so because speaking up is good for the bottom line. They’ve crunched the numbers and determined that promoting voting rights is more financially valuable than whatever they stand to gain from slightly lower tax rates.

Among those at risk of disenfranchisement, after all, are these companies’ customers and employees. And it’s not such a great business move to endorse attempts to take away your customers’ and employees’ civil rights; even staying neutral on the issue — as some companies tried to do before the Georgia law passed — can alienate consumers who are either direct victims of the law or allies of those victims. Similar dynamics emerged after Republicans pursued other divisive laws in recent years (such as North Carolina’s “bathroom bill”).

This is, in fact, how capitalism works: Customers get to ditch you if they’re unhappy with your brand. Republican officials are now trying to show just how valuable their own side’s purchasing power is by urging supporters to boycott companies that criticize voting restrictions. They’ve struggled so far; shortly after Trump asked followers to boycott Coca-Cola products, for instance, an adviser tweeted a photo showing Trump with what appeared to be a Diet Coke on his desk.

Hard to blame Republicans too much for having difficulty with the concept of voting with your feet, though. As their approach in Georgia shows, they’re accustomed to getting to pick and choose which votes count.

COVID-19 Update

World
New Cases:    739,217  (⬆︎ .56%)
New Deaths:     13,913  (⬆︎ .48%)

USA
New Cases:    80,161 (⬆︎ .25%)
New Deaths:     1,009 (⬆︎ .18%)

Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations:           112 million (⬆︎ 1.82%)
Total Eligible Population:  41.9%
Total Population:               33.7%

There's been a little weirdness in the reported Deaths (USA) at Worldometer, where I get my numbers. Yesterday, the total on their scorecard jumped by more than they reported in their chart.

I corrected the scorecard yesterday, but today I decided just to go with what they've put up.

It seems arbitrary, but since practically every source has different numbers anyway, it's kind of a 6-to-5-n-pick-'em proposition to begin with. So there ya have it.

All that said - the uptick in the numbers is unsettling no matter what else, and that's the point to remember.




The pros are being proved right again - on two counts: 
  • One, that we've got another wave coming - assuming we're not already in it now.
  • Two, we're in a race with that wave - trying to get the vaccination numbers ahead of the rising infection numbers.

U.S. cases involving Brazil variant on the rise, according to CDC data

As new U.S. coronavirus cases trend upward — with nearly 80,000 new infections reported Thursday — health officials are warning about the spread of multiple, more transmissible variants, some of which have seeded outbreaks in states such as Michigan and California.

On Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new data on emerging variants, including those first identified in Brazil, Britain and South Africa. The B.1.1.7 variant initially detected in Britain accounts for almost 20,000 cases in all 50 states — and has become the dominant strain, officials say.

For the first time, however, the P.1 variant that originated in Brazil has taken the No. 2 spot. At least 434 people in the United States have been infected with the variant, which has devastated Brazil, with the largest number of cases found in Massachusetts, Illinois and Florida.

Here are some significant developments:
  • In the United States, nearly 20 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, giving some 66 million people a strong measure of protection against a disease that has killed more than 559,000 people nationwide.
  • U.S. intelligence officials have little comfort to offer a pandemic-weary planet about where the world is heading in the next 20 years. Short answer: It looks pretty bleak.
  • The U.S. 7th Fleet that operates throughout the Indo-Pacific says 96 percent of its personnel have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, the Associated Press reported.
  • Variants of the coronavirus are increasingly defining the next phase of the pandemic in the United States, taking hold in ever-greater numbers and eliciting pleas for a change in strategy against the outbreak.
  • Japan announced stricter virus curbs to halt the spread of a more contagious variant ahead of the Summer Olympics.
Parts of India grapple with vaccine shortages as infections surge to record

As India grapples with a rising tide of coronavirus infections, people arriving at vaccination centers in some parts of the country are being told there are no shots available.

On Friday, dozens of hospitals in Mumbai, India’s financial capital, halted vaccinations because their supply ran out, according to a list prepared by the municipal authority.

If no additional supplies are received, the city’s vaccinations will completely stop on Saturday, said Kishori Pednekar, Mumbai’s mayor. “We are anxious,” she said. “To stop the second wave, we need this.”

Several Indian states have reported dwindling vaccine inventories in recent days. In the eastern state of Odisha, authorities temporarily shuttered 700 vaccination centers — half the total — due to a lack of supplies, said P.K. Mohapatra, the state’s health secretary.

Apr 8, 2021

Today's Tweet



That's how ya do it here in USAmerica Inc

Today's GIF


Paging Mr Escher

Kitties

Cats and their wacky quirky ways.

Today's Critters

Nope

COVID-19 Update

World
New Cases:   659,549  (⬆︎ .50%)
New Deaths:    12,996  (⬆︎ .45%)

USA
New Cases:   75,183  (⬆︎ .24%)
New Deaths:       873  (⬆︎ .15%)

Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations:           110 million (⬆︎ 1.57%)
Total Eligible Population:  41.2%
Total Population:               33.1%




So we're about halfway there in terms of getting enough of us vaccinated to make COVID far less threatening, and we have to be looking ahead to what the Post-COVID world might look like.

"Normal" is a pretty loaded term now.


Intelligence forecast sees a post-coronavirus world upended by climate change and splintering societies


U.S. intelligence officials have little comfort to offer a pandemic-weary planet about where the world is heading in the next 20 years. Short answer: It looks pretty bleak.

On Thursday, the National Intelligence Council, a center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence that creates strategic forecasts and estimates, often based on material gathered by U.S. spy agencies, released its quadrennial “Global Trends” report.

Looking over the time horizon, it finds a world unsettled by the coronavirus pandemic, the ravages of climate change — which will propel mass migration — and a widening gap between what people demand from their leaders and what they can actually deliver.

The intelligence community has long warned policymakers and the public that pandemic disease could profoundly reshape global politics and U.S. national security. The authors of the report, which does not represent official U.S. policy, describe the pandemic as a preview of crises to come. It has been a globally destabilizing event — the council called it “the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II — that “has reminded the world of its fragility” and “shaken long-held assumptions” about how well governments and institutions could respond to a catastrophe.

At the same time, the pandemic accelerated and exacerbated social and economic fissures that had already emerged. And it underscored the risks from “more and cascading global challenges, ranging from disease to climate change to the disruptions from new technologies and financial crises,” the authors write.

In language that will resonate with just about anyone who has tread water in the past year, the authors write of a “looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond.”

Within societies, fragmentation is increasing — political, cultural, economic — and “large segments of the global population are becoming wary of institutions and governments that they see as unwilling or unable to address their needs,” the report says.

The effects of the pandemic will linger, and could shape future generations’ expectations of their governments, particularly as a warming world leads to new human conflicts, including, in the most dire scenario, global food shortages that spawn mass violence.

Global power was contested long before the pandemic, and those trends haven’t abated.

The report sees the international stage as largely being shaped by a rivalry between China and the United States, along with its allies. No single state is poised to become the dominant global force, the authors write. And competing powers will jockey for position, leading to “a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment.”

Technology, with all its potential to boost economies and enhance communication, also may aggravate political tension — as it already has.

People “are likely to gravitate to information silos of people who share similar views, reinforcing beliefs and understanding of the truth,” the report concludes.

Prediction is an inherently risky business, and intelligence practitioners are quick to emphasize that they can’t see the future. But the National Intelligence Council imagines five scenarios on a kind of sliding scale that may help tell us where the world is turning as we approach 2040.

On the rosiest end, a “Renaissance of democracies” ushers in a new era of U.S. global leadership, in which economic growth and technological achievements offer solutions to the world’s biggest problems and Russia and China are largely left in the dust, authoritarian vestiges whose brightest scientists and entrepreneurs have fled to the United States and Europe.

At the dark end of the future is “tragedy and mobilization,” when the United States is no longer the dominant player, and a global environmental catastrophe prompts food shortages and a “bottom-up” revolution, with younger people, scarred by their leaders’ failures during the coronavirus pandemic, embracing policies to repair the climate and tackle long-standing social inequality. In this scenario, a European Union dominated by green parties works with the United Nations to expand international aid and focus on sustainability, and China joins the effort in part to quell domestic unrest in its cities affected by famine.

In between those extremes, the report imagines three other possibilities: China becomes a leading state but not globally dominant; the United States and China prosper and compete as the two major powers; and globalization fails to create a single source of influence, and the world more or less devolves into competing blocs, preoccupied with threats to their prosperity and security.

The present has a lot of say over the future. And there, the authors find reason for alarm.

“The international system — including the organizations, alliances, rules, and norms — is poorly set up to address the compounding global challenges facing populations,” the authors write.

But the pandemic may offer lessons on how not to repeat recent history. The authors note that although European countries restricted travel and exports of medical supplies early in the crisis, the European Union has now rallied around an economic rescue package. That “could bolster the European integration projecting going forward.”

“Covid-19 could also lead to redirection of national budgets toward pandemic response and economic recovery,” they add, “diverting funds from defense expenditures, foreign aid, and infrastructure programs in some countries, at least in the near term.”

But overall, the pandemic leaves the authors with more questions than answers — and humbled.

“As researchers and analysts, we must be ever vigilant, asking better questions, frequently challenging our assumptions, checking our biases, and looking for weak signals of change,” they write.

Their work is not all doomsaying. The forces shaping the world “are not fixed in perpetuity,” the authors say. Countries that exploit technology and planning, particularly those that plan ahead for the seemingly inevitable consequences of climate change, will be poised to best manage the crisis. And countries that harness artificial intelligence could boost productivity and expand their economies in ways that let government deliver more services, reduce debt and help cover the costs of caring for aging populations.

Ultimately, the societies that succeed will be those that can adapt to change, but also forge social consensus around what should be done, the authors write. In a splintering world, that may be the hardest scenario to imagine.

Apr 7, 2021

Today's Tweet



Off leash - in a store - what the fuck, dude!?!

Today's Pix

👁 👃🏻 👁
👅

click to embiggen































COVID-19 Update

World
New Cases:   587,527 (⬆︎ .44%)
New Deaths:    12,019 (⬆︎ .42%)

USA
New Cases:   62,283 (⬆︎ .20%)
New Deaths:       906 (⬆︎ .16%)

Vaccination Scorecard
Total Vaccinations:          108.3 million (⬆︎ .74%)
Total Eligible Population: 40.5%
Total Population:              32.6%

Both Biden and Virginia Gov Northam have made the announcement that everybody over the age of 16 will be eligible for vaccination before the end of April.

And if you're vaccination-reluctant for any reason other than on the specific advice of your own doctor, then you're behaving stupidly.


I'm not going with a sorry-not-sorry on this one - not pulling any punches - you're just being stoopid.




Governments lie. Everybody in any position of great power will lie to some extent about something at some time. Everybody.

But the Daddy State lies about everything all the time - because it's not about anything but the free exercise of their power.

WaPo: (Op/Ed - pay wall)

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its provisional death statistics for 2020, and it gave us a shocking figure: While a reported 345,323 people died of covid-19 last year, total deaths jumped by much more than that. In 2020, the United States lost about 3.4 million people, compared with about 2.9 million in 2019, an increase of roughly half a million. Those extra deaths represent about 1 in every 650 Americans, or, alternatively, the entire population of Atlanta.

It’s hard to grasp what numbers like that mean; the imagination trails off into strings of zeroes. But even if you dig beneath the headline data and try to focus on the smaller numbers, you’ll find them equally elusive. What they keep driving home is how little we still know about this virus, and what it’s done to us — indeed, how much we may never know.

Consider the 158,000 extra deaths that weren’t directly attributed to covid-19. It’s safe enough to link most of them to the pandemic, but if you want to know more than that, you quickly run into trouble.

Some of them, of course, are probably just covid-19 deaths that didn’t get recorded that way. It seems significant that deaths from strokes and heart disease rose during the pandemic, while cancer deaths held steady. Strokes and heart attacks are known complications of covid-19; cancer is not.

We can probably also blame the virus for 13,000 extra deaths from diabetes, a known covid-19 risk factor. But what about the reported rise in traffic fatalities, most of which probably weren’t feverish patients crashing their cars on the way to the emergency room? A more likely culprit is the faster speeds and reckless driving enabled by suddenly open roads.

In some cases, we may never know whether to blame the virus, or our reaction to it. Notably, Alzheimer’s deaths increased 10 percent from 2019. Dementia patients are, of course, especially likely to live in nursing homes, among the places hardest hit by covid-19. But when those nursing homes isolated patients in their rooms to keep the virus from spreading, it was particularly catastrophic for those suffering with dementia. For frail individuals who can’t pass their days Facetiming friends or browsing the Internet, isolation was a profound torture that might have sent them into decline even if they never got covid-19.

Moving beyond the medical, we will have to reckon with the sharp spike in homicide across dozens of American cities. How much should we attribute to covid-19, how much to prior trends, how much to the deterioration of police-community relations or some other factor?

Finally, we come to the most surprising category of all: things that actually got better. Deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease actually fell about 3 percent in 2020, presumably because people with serious respiratory disease were serious about staying home, wearing masks and washing their hands. And despite the harrowing predictions I kept hearing about how lockdowns would trigger a wave of suicides, suicide actually fell by about 6 percent.

This was so counter to expectations that I reached out to Mark Olfson, a professor of psychiatry and epidemiology at Columbia University. He indicated that many experts also found the numbers surprising. Suicides often follow the kinds of traumatic events that happened a lot during the pandemic: losing a job, a business, a loved one. There also had been a rise in unintentional overdoses and emergency room visits for psychological distress.

But we could name some countervailing factors. Extra-generous extended unemployment benefits, for example, meant that many people who lost jobs were actually better off financially in 2020. In fact, with fewer leisure activities to spend money on, a lot of household balance sheets look very healthy right now, though, of course, some individuals have suffered intensely, especially small business owners.

Meanwhile, some people who ended up living with their families might have had more psychological support than they normally would, and the sense of collective misery might, Olfson said, “buffer it for some people.” If you’re at home by yourself while everyone is out socializing, you feel like a failure; if everyone is at home binge-watching Netflix, you’re one of a crowd.

But Olfson also pointed out that even if the numbers went down in aggregate, there quite possibly were individuals who were driven to suicide by the pressures of the pandemic. The people who looked at struggling friends and family and concluded that we were facing an unprecedented psychological tsunami weren’t wrong, exactly; it’s just that their experiences weren’t representative of the whole country.

For that matter, it’s possible that the trauma of this year might have lingering consequences that will show up in mortality reports five or 20 years from now — the psychological wreckage continuing to wash up well after the storm. We will probably never know quite how bad the hurricane got, only that a terrible thing swept over us, and that much of what it destroyed can never be recovered.