Just A Thought

What if the stolen classified documents case isn't just the transactional thing we've been assuming it is?

I'm not saying it isn't about Trump stealing valuable stuff and peddling it to the Saudis or Putin or Xi or whoever's willing to pay his price. That much seems pretty obvious.

But I am saying, it could also be part of Trump's Revenge.

"The country let me down, and made me lose the election not be President anymore, and now I feel bad - I feel sorry for myself - so I have no choice but to punish the country for treating me so unfairly."

Change my mind - tell me it couldn't be that way. Convince me those thoughts would never occur to a guy like Trump - a guy with the brain of a twisted toddler.

Today's Ryan

Sometimes you have to get down in the mud to meet the enemy where he is. But if you start to get used to being down there, you start to lose the plot, because you'll eventually become indistinguishable from what you're supposed to be fighting against.

Unless you count my stint as a pump jockey and wrench-bender at Zupe's Standard in the late 70s, I never served in uniform. Not that that has anything to do with it.

But anyway, I grew up surrounded by men who fought in WW2 and Korea and Vietnam. The ones who were able or willing to talk about it, all said something along the lines of, "You do what you have to do, but you do it with honor - otherwise, what's the fuckin' point?"

They all said something else: There's nothing good or glorious or ennobling about combat. It sounds bad, it looks bad, it feels bad, and it smells bad - it's absolutely terrifying, and you end up going a little crazy just doing everything you can think of trying to make it stop.

Today's Keith

Sam Alito's flags, and the coveted 65-Dead Demographic

Their Brand

Whiny-butt pussies

Today's Trumpy Bullshit

The law requires the presiding judge to query the defendant regarding his understanding of what's going on. This generally happens twice. Once when the accused is arraigned and enters a plea - guilty or not guilty or no contest. And again on the first day of the trial - before the lawyers lock horns and duke it out.

• Do you understand that you've been charged with (insert bad actor shit here)?
• Do you understand these charges?
• Do you understand that you've entered a plea of (guilty, not guilty, nolo contendre)
• Do you want to change your plea?
• Do you understand that you have the right to directly participate in your defense - to testify if you choose, but that you can't be compelled to do so?

Trump has answered in the affirmative on every occasion, but he makes bank by playing on the fear and ignorance of low-wattage MAGA cult members:

"THERE IS NO CRIME!" has been a constant chant every time Trump has crossed the line.

Yes, there's a crime - there's always a crime - there's always a vast multitude of crimes everywhere Trump goes, and every time he does anything.

Here's the list:

First count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated February 14, 2017, marked as a record of the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Second count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, bearing voucher number 842457, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Third count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, bearing voucher number 842460, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Fourth count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about February 14, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust Account check and check stub dated February 14, 2017, bearing check number 000138, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Fifth count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about March 16, 2017 through March 17, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated February 16, 2017 and transmitted on or about March 16, 2017, marked as a record of the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Sixth count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about March 17, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, bearing voucher number 846907, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Seventh count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about March 17, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust Account check and check stub dated March 17, 2017, bearing check number 000147, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Eighth count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about April 13, 2017 through June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated April 13, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Ninth count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 858770, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

10th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated June 19, 2017, bearing check number 002740, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

11th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about May 22, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated May 22, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

12th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about May 22, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 855331, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

13th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about May 23, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated May 23, 2017, bearing check number 002700, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

14th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about June 16, 2017 through June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated June 16, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

15th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 858772, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

16th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about June 19, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated June 19, 2017, bearing check number 002741, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

17th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about July 11, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated July 11, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

18th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about July 11, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 861096, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

19th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about July 11, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated July 11, 2017, bearing check number 002781, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

20th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about August 1, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated August 1, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

21st count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about August 1, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 863641, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

22nd count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about August 1, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated August 1, 2017, bearing check number 002821, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

23rd count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about September 11, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated September 11, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

24th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about September 11, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 868174, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

25th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about September 12, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated September 12, 2017, bearing check number 002908, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

26th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about October 18, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated October 18, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

27th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about October 18, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 872654, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

28th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about October 18, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated October 18, 2017, bearing check number 002944, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

29th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about November 20, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated November 20, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

30th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about November 20, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 876511, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

31st count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about November 21, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated November 21, 2017, bearing check number 002980, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

32nd count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about December 1, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an invoice from Michael Cohen dated December 1, 2017, marked as a record of Donald J. Trump, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

33rd count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about December 1, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, an entry in the Detail General Ledger for Donald J. Trump, bearing voucher number 877785, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

34th count: Falsifying business records in the first degree

“The defendant, in the County of New York and elsewhere, on or about December 5, 2017, with intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise, to wit, a Donald J. Trump account check and check stub dated December 5, 2017, bearing check number 003006, and kept and maintained by the Trump Organization.”

Trump is probably not going to prison - not for any length of time anyway. But it's crazy stupid important to get a conviction or two or nine or twenty-five in order to finally tear away Trump's cloak of invisibility - to prove he's not bulletproof - to make it clear that no on is above the law.

It sounds trite and stale, because we've been hearing it for ages, and we've grown weary and a little cynical listening to the same old song while watching these rich pukes get away with fucking murder.

Green Shoots In Texas

The Speaker of the House in the Texas legislature (Dade Phelan) led the impeachment effort against Ken Paxton. In true GOP style, Paxton led a revenge effort to torpedo Phelan with a primary challenger endorsed by Trump and a host of MAGA luminaries - and the effort failed. Phelan won and the Trump guy lost. 

Is it 2022 all over again?

Dots

So okay - are we looking at the first indication of what Trump says he'll deliver for the billion-dollar "donation" he solicited from the Dirty Fuels Cartel?

Maybe we're getting a hint at why Elon Musk's breath smells of Trump's asshole - because Trump is giving him a plausible-sounding excuse for when Tesla goes tits up (?)

I'm not asking for Boy Scouts and a world painted in soft pastels, but I'd like to get back to thinking that people will at least try to deal above board and with some honor. 

Donald Trump Says He'll Stop All Electric Car Sales

"You won't be able to sell those cars," says the legally embroiled former president

Former United States President Donald J. Trump, currently facing 34 felony counts in criminal court, is campaigning for re-election this fall by taking shots at the increasingly popular electric car industry. Trump has already called for oil and gas industry executives to donate significant campaign funds in exchange for a reversal of Biden administration climate policies. If elected this November, Trump would roll back tailpipe emissions targets and dramatically slash EV tax credits. These policies may prove unpopular even among Republican voters, as electric vehicle production has spurred job growth and investment in southern states.

The automotive landscape is a far different place than it was in 2016 when Trump gained the presidency. Despite his best efforts, the EV market has grown significantly in the last eight years. Just 159,139 electric vehicles were sold in the U.S. in 2016, and that number is expected to exceed 1.5 million (or 10 percent of U.S. new car sales) in 2024. Even if Donald Trump were to be elected and hit the brakes on EV tax credits, the market may already be at a tipping point of growth. The electric car market has jumped the chasm between early adopters and mainstream consumers. Analysts predict widespread EV adoption will continue to develop regardless of Donald Trump’s actions, though perhaps at a reduced pace.

William Clay Ford Jr., executive chair of Ford Motor, told the New York Times: “Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame, is a lot longer than election cycles,” Mr. Ford said at an event organized by the Detroit Free Press last month. “When we’re whipsawed back and forth by politicians that becomes really difficult for us.”

Investment in U.S. manufacturing spurred by President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will continue apace even with a second term for Donald Trump. Hyundai, for example, is investing $13 billion on electric vehicle production in Georgia, a state Donald Trump narrowly lost by 12,000 votes in 2020. By threatening the livelihoods of blue collar American workers, Trump may be doing more harm than good for his case in these manufacturing-reliant states.

New Cybertruck Sends Owner to the Emergency Room Before He Even Gets a Chance to Drive It

With billions of investment on the books from automakers, charging companies, dealership networks, and advertising, it seems unlikely that Donald Trump can stop the rolling bolder that is the EV market. Republican strongholds Texas and Florida are increasingly adopting electric vehicles as their chosen mode of transport, trailing only California in terms of EV registrations. Electric vehicles seem to be equally popular among Republican and Democrat consumers. Alienating regular working-class Americans in an appeal to his fervent base seems to be Donald Trump’s raison d’etre, so we’ll have to wait until November to see if it actually works.

Consequences Schmonsequences

I'm not predicting disaster - even if Trump wriggles out of this and scampers away Scot free - and I don't think I'm being all Pollyanna and shit either - I'm just keeping my fingers crossed while not holding my breath.

One thing I've learned in 50 years of watching and dabbling in politics is that even when it's over, it ain't over.

At least one of the myriad possible outcomes of all this Trump dictatorship / Plutocracy shit could in fact spell the "end" of our little experiment in self-governance. But even that won't mean it's all over. It just means that, as always, the evolution of the thing outlives us all.

This fight will outlive me, the same as it's outlived everybody before me. About all I can do is to go on trying to build a legacy of clear-thinking resistance to shitty authoritarian ideology, and in favor of good government that's appropriately regulated and balanced and flexible - that can be adjusted and improved as time and circumstance require. You know - that silly notion of a more perfect union.

No union was less perfect than the one we started with, but that union was a metric fuck-ton better than anything that had come before it.

I keep reminding myself that, in 235 years, this particular fight has already outlived hundreds of millions of us.

It'd be a little silly to stop fighting for something better now.

If convicted in his hush money trial, here’s what Trump could face next

A guilty verdict for Trump in the New York trial would mean a mix of routine court processing and extraordinary logistical considerations, legal experts say.

Donald Trump has complained of the indignities of a cold, uncomfortable Manhattan courtroom during his hush money trial, which began jury deliberations Wednesday morning.

If convicted, Trump could face other conditions he may consider insulting, including a required inmate review by New York City’s Department of Probation.

The probation office on the 10th floor of the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse prepares presentencing reports for judges. There, Trump would be interviewed about his personal history, his mental health and the circumstances that led to his conviction.

Lawyers say the process is humbling.

“If you think the courtroom is dingy, just wait until you go to the probation office,” said Daniel Horwitz, a white-collar criminal defense attorney in New York and former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

Former prosecutors sketched out a mix of likely experiences for Trump if he were found guilty of any charge in the case, which includes 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The case involves $130,000 in payments allegedly authorized by Trump to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election to keep her quiet about a sexual encounter she says they had.

The routine processing of convicted felons into the New York criminal justice system would include the timeline of a potential appeal. There would also be extraordinary considerations — such as how the Secret Service would protect him if he were sent to prison and whether he would be allowed to travel to campaign events if sentenced to home confinement — given Trump’s standing as a former president and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for the election in November.

Legal experts said incarceration appeared unlikely for Trump, 77, who has no criminal record.

The Class E felony charges are punishable by 16 months to four years in prison. Among the key issues to be determined if Trump were convicted would be whether he faces some form of incarceration, either in a government facility or a private location, or a less-restrictive experience through probation.

New York Mayor Eric Adams said this month that the city’s Rikers Island jail complex and Department of Corrections were prepared if Trump were ordered to serve time.

A conviction would not disqualify him from running for office or serving as president if elected, constitutional experts said.

During the trial, which began April 15, prosecutors with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office said Trump falsely recorded the payments involving Daniels as legal expenses and alleged they were improper campaign expenditures. Defense attorneys said Trump, who pleaded not guilty, made personal payments to protect his family from an embarrassing disclosure.

The jury, which heard closing arguments from defense lawyers and prosecutors Tuesday, must unanimously agree on a conviction or an acquittal, while a split among jurors could prompt New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan to declare a mistrial. In that situation, Bragg could decide to retry Trump, who likely would paint the outcome as a victory in his efforts to discredit the prosecution as politically motivated.

Trump’s punishment if convicted would be up to Merchan, who would receive input from the prosecution and defense in the presentencing report. Though jail or prison are unlikely, the former prosecutors said, alternatives such as probation or home confinement would create logistical challenges and potential political concerns.

If he is sentenced to probation, for example, Trump would be required to clear any out-of-state travel — such as to campaign rallies and fundraisers — with a probation officer. If Trump were to serve home confinement at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., New York authorities would likely have to work with counterparts in Florida to accommodate him, the experts said.

Such arrangements are not uncommon for convicted felons, experts said, but the details must be approved by probation officers.

“If you have a probation officer, you are not supposed to travel without permission. Your home is subject to random search because you don’t have a Fourth Amendment right to your home being private. You can get drug-tested, potentially. Travel outside the country is difficult,” said Matthew Galluzzo, another former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

“That would be super awkward for someone on the campaign trail, but not impossible,” Galluzzo said. “If he had to go to a debate against Biden, he probably could go, but you’re supposed to make that request far in advance.”

Trump and Biden have agreed to two debates, the first scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta — which is likely to take place before any potential sentencing of Trump — and the second planned for Sept. 10 at a yet-undisclosed location.

Before a sentencing date were scheduled, Trump’s lawyers would likely ask Merchan to nullify the verdict, though the legal experts said the judge almost certainly would not do so.

Instead, the probation office would put together a presentencing report for Merchan. As part of that process, Trump would be required to participate in an interview with a probation officer who would produce a biography of him of about five or six pages, legal experts said. Such documents are confidential, intended only for the judge and the lawyers.

Trump has called his prosecution politically motivated and denigrated Merchan, Bragg and others, leading the judge to fine him 10 times for a total of $10,000 during the trial for violating a partial gag order. How Trump would react to questions from a probation officer about the case could get him into more hot water with the court. Legal experts said his lawyers likely would advise him not to discuss the case.

Convicts are “expected to tell the truth. If they are convicted and then say, ‘No, it’s a lie, it didn’t happen,’ that will go back to the judge. And that’s not good,” said defense attorney Jeremy Saland, who also served as a Manhattan prosecutor.

The prosecution and Trump’s defense team also are expected to submit recommendations about the sentencing.

Because he was charged with nonviolent crimes, Trump is an unlikely candidate to be detained in prison as he awaits sentencing, said the experts, who added that it is also unlikely that Merchan would impose bail as a condition for his release.

Trump’s team has 30 days to file notice of appeal and six months to file the full appeal if he is convicted.

A key question is whether the court would agree to stay Trump’s sentence pending an appeal, a process that is likely to last well beyond the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Former prosecutors suggested such a scenario is plausible given that any punishment of Trump could be short enough in duration that the sentence would be fully carried out before a legal appeal is litigated.

The legal experts said Merchan could grant Trump a conditional discharge tied to the requirement that he not commit another legal offense.

Merchan also could impose a financial penalty or require him to do community service or undergo counseling, some legal experts said.

If the judge were to impose a more onerous penalty, such as home confinement, Trump could still find ways to continue campaigning, even if he were not on the road.

“He could be confined but go to Mar-a-Lago and hold a news conference every day, be on TV, hold rallies remotely,” Horwitz said. “There’s a lot he can do as a candidate while under home confinement.”

Step By Step

I would not make a good juror - not for that fuckin' guy.

What is likely to happen in the jury room at the Trump trial

The jurors in Donald Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial are about to discover how weird their job really is.

The key moment won’t be when New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan finishes offering instructions to the jury in Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan. It won’t be when the jury files out of the courtroom, slated to return only when it has reached a verdict. The key moment, the moment in which the jury’s power flips from potential to kinetic, comes when the officer escorts the jury to the jury room and the door shuts with a click.

For the first time, the jurors will be allowed to talk about the case, to discuss not only the witnesses they’ve seen but also the evidence those witnesses offered. (It’s likely some of the witnesses have been discussed in the abstract; one witness at the Astor trial’s cheetah-print outfit was a point of discussion in the jury room afterward.) And, for the first time, the jurors will realize the hard part of their jobs has just begun.

Throughout Trump’s trial, now about a month old, I’ve occasionally written about my experience sitting on a jury in Manhattan 15 years ago. The trial centered on Anthony Marshall, the son of millionaire New York socialite Brooke Astor, and allegations that Marshall had taken advantage of his mother’s diminished mental capacity as she aged to change her will.

Like the jury in the Trump case, we were selected and seated in the spring. Unlike the attorneys in the Trump trial, the prosecution and defense in what was then known as the Astor trial didn’t rest their cases until the fall. We spent a half-year working together, spending hours listening attentively in the jury box and at least as many hours chatting and gossiping behind closed doors in the jury room. At least until that door-click moment arrived for us, and suddenly we were put to work.

No one can know exactly what the Trump jury will do as deliberations begin or how long they will take. Last week I tried to reinforce this point: Even the jurors walking into that room are probably incorrect about how the process will unfold. Each of us has our assessments of the world around us that seem justified and accurate. When we start comparing notes, though, we quickly understand how subjective our perceptions can be. And given that the issue at hand is potentially a person’s freedom, a jury — at least a jury that takes its job seriously, which I and the system assume as a default — must carefully consider how to blend those subjective experiences into a shared verdict.

I read some commentary Wednesday morning, as the judge prepared to offer his final instructions to the Trump jurors, suggesting that the jurors indicated an eagerness to wrap things up given their willingness to work late into the evening on Tuesday. I suspect that’s wrong. Probably, instead, the jurors are eager to engage in the task for which they were selected.

The 12 people chosen to evaluate whether Trump is guilty are keenly aware of the import of their decision and, by now, intimately familiar with one another and how each of them views the role they’ve been asked to play. They’ve endured weeks of presentations and arguments from lawyers and the judge. They’ve seen how the lawyers, the audience and presumably the defendant scrutinize them for their reactions to evidence as though they’re feral cats being lured with treats. Finally — at last — they get to be in the driver’s seat.

What we did (if I remember correctly 15 years later) was begin with a survey of the different charges and run through a trial vote on the defendants’ guilt. (Marshall was charged along with his attorney Francis Marshall.) We immediately realized that the deliberations would not be quick.

It’s crucial to remember that the task presented to jurors is not simply to answer the question, “Did he do it,” but instead the more particular question, “Does the evidence presented remove any reasonable doubt that he violated the letter of the law?” In the jury box, you’re thinking mostly about the first question. In the jury room, after that door click, you’re considering the second one. That’s the point of the judge’s instructions.

Our case was different from the one under consideration by the Trump jurors because it involved a broader array of charges. That isn’t to diminish what they will need to consider, certainly, but the 34 charges Trump faces are all counts of “falsifying business records in the first degree.” The evidence needs to be compared only to that particular statute in each of the 34 cases. Perhaps all 34 charges will be decided the same way, with the jurors quickly agreeing that each was or wasn’t proved beyond reasonable doubt. Or, perhaps — and perhaps the more likely outcome — they will disagree on some counts for specific reasons and need to figure out how to resolve those differences.

What the jurors can’t and shouldn’t do is consider what the ramifications of their decision will be. They aren’t being asked to punish Trump but, instead, to evaluate his guilt based on the available evidence. This is why the judge was frustrated at Trump’s attorney Todd Blanche on Tuesday; Blanche made a comment that Trump might face prison time, tying the verdict to a punishment in a way that could influence how jurors vote on the charges.

I can offer an example. After deliberating for 11 days in the Astor trial, we returned a mixed set of verdicts for the two defendants. Only after we had done so did we learn that one charge on which we returned a guilty verdict resulted in a mandatory prison sentence — meaning that the 85-year-old defendant would have to serve time. That was one of the charges on which we’d spent the most time because several of us, including myself, were skeptical that the letter of the law had been met. So we tallied the value of what Marshall had siphoned off his mother’s fortune, determining that it exceeded the statutory requirement. It did, but not by much. Guilty, beyond a reasonable doubt.

Had we known that a guilty verdict on this charge meant that Marshall would have to go to prison, it may have influenced our decision. But we didn’t know and shouldn’t have.

Deliberation is hard. You try sitting down with 11 strangers and reaching unanimous agreements on complicated issues. Tempers will flare, as they did on our jury. But there is no rush; after a month of evidence and courtroom jockeying, the court and the attorneys and the defendant are on the jury’s clock — and at its beck and call. Jurors may send out questions seeking clarification (and then wait for hours while the lawyers argue with the judge about how to respond). They may request to see evidence that was presented in court. (I distinctly remember holding and considering Brooke Astor’s will as I sat in the jury room on the 15th floor of the criminal court building in Lower Manhattan.) Until they’ve reached agreement — or decided that they can’t — the court and everyone else just has to wait.

I have a photo from the Astor trial deliberations on my phone, one of a surreptitious few I took (against the rules, I admit) while serving on that jury. It shows two of my fellow jurors sitting at the large table in the center of the relatively small jury room, a room that is presumably identical to the one at which the Trump jurors will sit. In the corner is a blackboard on which we’d written all of the charges and how we’d voted in evaluating them. The date of the photo indicates that it was taken the morning we returned our verdicts.

After assuring ourselves and each other that we were confident in our decisions (and after one more free, state-paid lunch), we let the court know we were done. We were called into the courtroom for the last time, and the verdicts were read. Each of us was then polled — did we agree with the verdicts presented? We all did.

And then, just like that, we were all unemployed. The job was done. We returned to being regular New Yorkers, people who were only peers of a Brooke Astor or a Donald Trump in the generous view of the American legal system.

Stoopid GOP Voters

I know we're not supposed to call the other side a bunch fuckin' idiots, and I promise to stop calling them a buncha fuckin' idiots when they stop acting like a buncha fuckin' idiots.

Classic - make the proposed action look like it's going to do one thing, when it's actually intended to do something pretty much exactly the opposite of what you've been telling your constituents you intend to do. By the time they start to catch on, it's too late - ain't nothin' they can do - and if your Messaging Team has their shit together, the rubes will be glad to pretend it's what they wanted all along.

The Daddy State

Fake it 'til you break it.