Type 1 Error = False Positive
Type 2 Error = False Negative
(paraphrasing Michael Shermer)
You're a hominid out for a stroll on the African plains 2 million years ago, and you hear a rustle in the grass. Do you assume it's a dangerous predator, or do you assume it's harmless?
If you identify the sound as a predator, and it turns out to be the wind, then you've made a mistake (a Type 1 Error). You lose some time, but you've survived - you continue to hunt and to live and to breed.
If you identify the sound as the wind, but it turns out to be a leopard, then you've removed yourself and all your potential descendants from the gene pool.
We are descended from a very long line of creatures who consistently made Type 1 Errors.
And that (partly) explains why we insist on believing in ghosts; and that Elvis is alive; and that there is a god.
Dr Shermer, if you please:
Type 2 Error = False Negative
(paraphrasing Michael Shermer)
You're a hominid out for a stroll on the African plains 2 million years ago, and you hear a rustle in the grass. Do you assume it's a dangerous predator, or do you assume it's harmless?
If you identify the sound as a predator, and it turns out to be the wind, then you've made a mistake (a Type 1 Error). You lose some time, but you've survived - you continue to hunt and to live and to breed.
If you identify the sound as the wind, but it turns out to be a leopard, then you've removed yourself and all your potential descendants from the gene pool.
We are descended from a very long line of creatures who consistently made Type 1 Errors.
And that (partly) explains why we insist on believing in ghosts; and that Elvis is alive; and that there is a god.
Dr Shermer, if you please:
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