The Big Shift

Quick reminder for all you pseudo-macho tiny-peckered would be conquistadors:

Better men than you have been trying to conquer the world for a good 40,000 years - and the world remains undefeated.

And The Question Is

... does this have anything to do with Trump's nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that was announced the other day?

Everything is a real estate deal to Kushner and Witkoff, so there's no way to view any of this through a lens of normal diplomacy.

WTF are we supposed to think about any of this shit?

Trump ordered military not to conduct strikes in Iran Friday

President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said.

Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue.

• Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short of a return to major combat operations — the current level of U.S. strikes has reached the limit of its effectiveness.
• If Trump orders a return to strikes, the U.S. military can mobilize on relatively short notice.
• The U.S. military is still preparing plans for a possible return to major combat operations, but Trump hasn't given orders to move in that direction, the sources said.
• The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Driving the news: Every afternoon for the last two weeks, Trump has approved strike plans submitted by the military. They were conducted within hours.

• On Friday, Trump received a similar plan but did not give a green light. Instead, he directed the military not to conduct strikes, the sources said.
• Shortly after he gave the Friday directive, Trump told reporters at the White House that he has the option of continuing strikes or even escalating them, including "knocking out everything they have.
• "But he made clear that he thinks the "smarter strategy" is to "make a deal" with Iran.
• "We're talking to [the Iranians] right now. I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by. We're locked and loaded and ready to go, but we're talking to them," Trump said.
• Later on Friday, during his remarks at the White House Correspondents Association dinner, Trump said he didn't think Iran is ready to make a deal at the moment, "but I'm willing to listen."

Behind the scenes:  The Israeli security cabinet and Israel Defense Force expected another round of U.S. strikes on Friday and even prepared for a massive U.S. attack that could trigger a retaliatory attack on Israel, Israeli officials say.

• The cabinet and military didn't feel they had a full picture of what the U.S. would do, so they prepared for a major bombing offensive and remained on high alert.
• On Friday night, the Israelis were notified that Trump did not approve more strikes.

State of play: Trump's order to hold fire was given several hours after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran Friday for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Two regional sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress has been made in the talks and that an agreement between Oman and Iran could be reached over the weekend.
• President Trump would then have to decide whether to accept the proposed deal.

Small Men, Big Problems

A coupla things about North Korea.

First, it's been less than a full generation since North Korea came relatively close to being wiped out by famine.

Nobody knows for sure what the numbers are - estimates range from 250,000 to 4 million dead N Koreans. That's anywhere from 2% to 18% of the total population. By comparison, what do you suppose happens to this country if somewhere between 3 million and 52 million Americans died over a 5 year period?

Now, some good old fashioned Keynesian Stimulus can do wonders to help you recover from just about anything, so a massive investment in a nationalized push towards (eg) nuclear weapons would definitely boost the economy, but that assumes you have a shitload of credit or the ability to monetize your national debt, neither of which was available to North Korea in the 90s.

One of the big reasons for that famine was the loss of patronage. The Soviet Union cratered and cut their support. China stepped in, but they had their own problems with drought and shortages and lack of hard currency, so they had to bail too.

Anyway, N Korea gets practically nothing done without the help of a Patron State.

Second (to shorten the story), Putin makes out like a bandit if he stirs the shit in SE Asia.

And while he risks creating the monster - a deliverable H-bomb means never having to say, "Yessir, whatever you want, boss" - Uncle Vlad gets a net benefit just by pimping the chaos and looking for the opportunities.

Who's In Charge Here?

45*'s Grand Alienation Tour has made it pretty clear that almost every one of our old buddy countries is deciding Angela Merkel will be running the show from on out.  

And the US can fuck off until we come to our senses and put a grownup in the Oval Office again.

All Syria All The Time

I'm not gonna say none of this crap about Syria matters - it does.  But when I look at what passes for debate in congress and all over TV and Radio and Newspapers and the Blogosphere, I'll say none of that matters any more than pissin' in your wetsuit.

Nothing anybody says has anything to do with what's really going on because Obama's not gonna tell us everything he knows - or thinks he knows.

Kerry got himself all worked up - to the point where the expression on his face almost changed (I know, right?).  Anyway, the guy's runnin' around all crazy, yelling stating calmly in his best clear-but-stern-Brahmin-esque voice, "I'm not Colin Powell; I am not Colin Powell, dammit".

Meanwhile, Huckleberry Closet-Case and his best old buddy Grampy McDumfuck wanna make sure everybody knows they're on top of things, and that no matter what happens, America is still large and in charge; and 1986 is gonna be a great year for us - amiright!?!!  USA! USA! USA!

I'd call this a circus inside a circle jerk wrapped in a cluster fuck, but that'd be an insult to all 3.

So here's the deal - this is my considered opinion and what I think I should get paid top dollar for suggesting the Prez should do:

Everybody knows 2 basic things.  One is that Assad's gotta go. The other one is that Assad knows he either "wins" this thing or he dies.  Winning is pretty unlikely no matter what happens, but he can't win even in the short-term if he doesn't have big powerful friends - which he thinks he has in China and Russia.

So here's the play:  Obama has to figure out how to get Putin to dispose of Assad.  And actually, he has to get Putin to believe that by taking Assad out, Russia makes strategic gains in the middle east.  That's what Vlad wants after all.  So Putin jacks Assad, and the ensuing mess is Putin's problem.  But Putin knows all that, so...

...long story short - that's the setup, and here's the sting:  We knock off Assad and make sure Putin's fingerprints are all over the caper - a bit of Polonium-210 residue oughta do it.

Better yet - we get Bejing to do it, and they make sure Putin gets the blame.

Or maybe we could get the Israelis to get the Ugandans to get the North Koreans to get the Chinese to get the Russians...

Where's Curtis Lemay when you really need him?