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Showing posts with label tariffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tariffs. Show all posts

Apr 5, 2025

This Will Not Be Fun


It seems unclear when we'll start to feel the crunch, but we're very much in line to expect increases in the cost of just about everything we buy. Duh.

And part of that problem is that some companies whose stuff isn't imported - or are selling stuff that's impacted just a little - will see the tariffs as an opportunity to jack up their prices right along with everybody else.

And I'll go out on the limb here and say there are politicians just itchin' to use the potentially backbreaking effects of the tariffs as leverage to kill taxes altogether (some have talked about this for a long time, and we're getting it from Trump now too). We may start to hear about attempts to re-animate some variation on the stupid idea that a flat tax is the fairest way to do things.

Also - there have been proposals floated that we should ditch income tax and go with a universal sales tax, or a value-added tax. This is all regressive as fuck and pushes what's left of the middle class down - and keeps everybody down - while benefiting only people who're making more than 3 or 4 hundred K.

I hate this shit. When we had a graduating, progressive tax schedule, it helped drive the societal machinery that made for a strong and stable middle class, which build up the best overall system ever.

Fake lord knows it wasn't perfect - far from it - but by the middle 60s it seemed like everybody was going to have a shot at the dream. And we'd begun to understand that when everybody has a shot, and everybody understands that everybody deserves it, then we're making the whole thing better for ourselves.

I sound like a sad old man waxing nostalgic, so back to the point:
This latest bullshit feels like more coercion. If they make us miserable enough, we'll bend to their will and sign on for whatever might ease the pressure.

So here's a look at what WaPo thinks is headed our way.


Here’s where prices could rise the most and least under Trump’s tariffs

Shoppers will see uneven price increases on goods.


The global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump this week will cause prices to rise on a broad array of food, household items and electronics, economists warn.

But the increases won’t be applied equally — some items are likely to see much higher price hikes than others. Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on imports from nearly every country and imposed higher rates on goods coming from about 60 specific countries.

Consumer goods will be more exposed to higher tariffs than food and drinks

That means products that the United States commonly gets from Vietnam, such as clothing and shoes, would be subject to a new 46 percent tax, whereas goods from Colombia, like flowers, would see a lower new 10 percent levy. Imports from Mexico, such as avocados, will have no new tax. In any case, shopping is about to get more expensive for Americans.

“There’s no way this is going to be absorbed by firms alone,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “This will be felt by consumers.”

The vast majority of consumer goods — almost 80 percent — brought into United States will be subject to tariffs of at least 20 percent, according to a Washington Post analysis of international trade data from the Census Bureau.

Canada and Mexico weren’t included in the latest round of tariffs, though a 25 percent tax was placed earlier this year on some of the goods they export to the United States.

“I think Mexico is breathing a sigh of relief,” said Michael Camuñez, president and CEO of Monarch Global Strategies, which advises businesses in international trade.

Mexico and Canada are the United States’ largest trading partners for food, and imports can avoid tariffs entirely if they are compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement. Still, experts expect food prices to rise somewhat with the new tariffs.

“The bottom line is, it does mean more inflation,” said Tom Bailey, a senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank.

The prices of food products from other parts of the world, such as tea from Vietnam, could increase much more sharply with the high tax rates.

“Some retailers might just hang up a sign to consumers in shops and say, ‘price plus tariff,’” said Judy Ganes, president of J Ganes Consulting, which works with food and agricultural industries.

Bailey cautioned that prices will not rise exactly in line with the percentage of tariffs — a 46 percent tariff does not mean the final product will cost 46 percent more. Actual increases on finished goods are expected to be much less because some of the cost of the product comes from distribution and operations in the United States.

Countries in Asia are facing some of the highest rates, including goods from China, with tariffs of at least 54 percent, and goods from Vietnam, with a new 46 percent tax. That’s sure to mean higher prices for electronics such as phones, computers and video game consoles, which are often imported from the continent. The tariff imposed on goods from China could add roughly $250 or more to the cost of a $1,000 iPhone, though it’s not clear yet how much of the tariff costs would show up in consumer sticker prices.

The United States Fashion Industry Association said in a statement it was “disappointed” that the Trump administration imposed tariffs on the industry’s trading partners.

Most of the clothing sold in the U.S. is imported from abroad, and even clothing made domestically often relies on fabrics and yarn that are brought in from other countries, said Sheng Lu, a professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.

Apart from paying the new tariffs, clothing companies could also face a pullback from consumers, as people grow increasingly wary about their personal finances.

“If consumers do not feel safe about their financial outlook, they may stop buying clothing,” Lu said.

Apr 4, 2025

Outlook: Bleak

The "smart money" is all on recession right now.



Gold just hit a fresh all-time high with tariff worries sending investors scrambling for safety
  • Gold reached a fresh high over over $3,100 an ounce on Monday.
  • The safe haven is gaining on tariff fears, falling yields, and a declining dollar.
  • Goldman expects the gold prices to reach $3,300 an ounce by year-end.
Tariff anxiety is crushing risk appetite and sending gold to fresh highs amid the flight to safety.

The yellow metal surged to $3,127 per ounce Monday morning, up $100 in less than a week. Tariff-driven economic fears have made it one of this year's hottest commodities, having gained 18.3% so far in 2025.

The metal gained momentum amid heavy losses in US stocks on Monday as traders brace for the April 2 tariff date set by Trump.

Investors worry that the sweeping duties could escalate a global trade war, battering US markets and the economy. The tariffs have been the chief culprit behind the stock market's correction this year, and explain why Treasury yields have dropped to the 4% range.

But the stock market's pain is gold's gain this year.

"While stocks falter, gold continues to shine. The metal's status as a safe haven has been reinforced by tightening financial conditions, falling bond yields, and a weaker US dollar," wrote Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "As foreign demand for US assets drops due to lower yields, the environment becomes increasingly supportive for non-yielding assets like gold."

At $3,100 an ounce, the metal trades above the year-end forecasts made at the end of 2024.

But since President Donald Trump took office, banks such as Goldman Sachs have reassessed expectations. As of last week, the bank now sees $3,300 as the likely outcome, as tariff fears have reshaped gold flows and a pick up in central bank demand.

"While ETF flows generally track Fed policy rates, history shows they can overshoot during extended periods of macro uncertainty -- such as during the Covid-19 pandemic," the bank wrote Wednesday.

While technical indicators suggest gold is currently overbought, broader bullish momentum should overcome any short-term consolidation, Hathorn said. The next level of resistance for the metal will be at $3,200.

But some are not so sure the metal can keep outperforming. Morningstar analyst Jon Mills told Business Insider that a number of headwinds will drag gold to $1,820 in the coming years.

For now, tariff jitters are also moving other metals. Copper, which reached a nine-month high recently, is in retreat ahead of the April levies. According to ING, industrial metals suffer if tariffs slow global growth.

Goldman Sachs downgraded their guesses:
GDP Growth 2025:             1%
Recession Probability:    50%

Mar 9, 2025

The Double Whammy

It can be hard to get with a program of punishment when you've spent a long time trying to train yourself not to rely on force.

But sometimes, with some people, literally all you can do is either give up and hand over your lunch money, or you can take your best shot and kick 'em in the stomach. They're not going to listen to you when they're all hunched over groaning, but even once the pain subsides, the memory of the unpleasantness remains, and then you have a chance to talk sense to them.

And actually, Keith Kellogg (Trump's Special Envoy To Ukraine) gave us a great bit of insight into how these authoritarian brains "work".

A few days ago, Trump announced that we would no longer be supplying intel to Kyiv - the kind of information that the Ukrainians have been using to anticipate Russian attacks - and very shortly after that announcement Russia launched missile attacks against Ukrainian cities that were unable to prepare.

Kellogg articulated thusly, "The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a 2x4 across the nose - you got their attention."

Zelenskyy - a man who's been a good friend to us - didn't kowtow to Trump, so he had to be punished - Ukrainian civilians had to be killed so Trump could make his point.

It sucks, but that's the brand of bullying bullshit we're dealing with. So be it.



I'm not the least bit happy about having to take the hits that are coming, but this is what we've got now. This stupid fuck in the White House - and the asshole plutocrats in charge of our national policy - this is what we have to fight to change.

In the meantime -
Stay with it, Canadians
🇺🇸 ❤️ 🇨🇦

Feb 3, 2025

Oy


If fentanyl is the big bad bugbear, and we're seizing a thousand times more of the stuff at the southern border than we are at the northern border, has anybody stopped to think that maybe the Canadian border is where we need to send the troops?

BTW - if the poundage is correct, then Canada's number is not 1%. It's 0.1%

But let's stick to the theatrics at hand.

I think Scheinbaum threw Trump a bone. She gave him an off ramp. Sending 10,000 Mexican Guardsmen to the border is a fine and dandy gesture, but what exactly is their mission? She may just be sending them a little camping trip.
  • What're they trained to do?
  • Do they really have 10,000 weekend warriors who know how to do interdiction work?
  • How many guys per border mile is that? *
  • 10,000 guys to cover 2,000 miles of border, 24/7?
(* Working round-the-clock shifts, that's 1 guy every ⅔ of a mile - assuming all the cooks and mechanics and truck drivers are on the line too)

And let's not ignore the condescension of it all. Big Daddy Trump and Little Caesar Rubio are going to dictate terms?

I'm all for playing hardball whenever and wherever it's necessary, but this is like - we've been living on this block for a really long time, and we were getting along together pretty well, but now we've got this new temporary manager throwing rocks at the neighbors and trying to push everybody around.

Lastly - we keep seeing every problem from on the supply side. If we could our heads out of our asses for a minute, we might see that the demand for drugs here in USAmerica Inc is what keeps the supply coming in.

Lower demand = lower price
Lower price = lower reward for the same risk
Higher risk aversion = even lower price
Low enough price = very little supply

The same can be applied to our "immigrant problem". We're running around arresting the undocumented workers, but we let their employers slide.

Put a few white-boy business owners in prison for just a few months, and watch this shit practically disappear - as the pay for regular workin' folks goes up.


Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for one month after agreement on border troops

Key Points
  • President Donald Trump paused for a month new 25% tariffs on goods entering the United States from Mexico.
  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to her country’s border to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs.
  • The announcement came two days after Trump slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% tariff on goods imported from China.
  • Trump said there will be Mexican officials, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick will negotiate on tariffs.
President Donald Trump on Monday said he is pausing for one month his new 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico after that country’s president agreed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to the U.S. border to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico.

Trump in a social media post said that during the pause “we will have negotiations” on the tariffs “headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico.”

He also said “I look forward to participating in those negotiations” with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum “as we attempt to achieve a ‘deal’ between our two Countries.”

The announcement came two days after Trump slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on goods imported from China.

Sheinbaum over the weekend threatened retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the United States, and non-tariff measures, but had not disclosed the rate for the tariffs.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday night that his country would implement a 25% tariff against $155 billion in U.S. goods in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs, which had been announced hours earlier.

China has said it will challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization.

U.S. stocks, which had opened trading lower Monday, regained most of those losses on news of the pause of the tariffs on goods from Mexico.

Trump and Sheinbaum spoke Monday morning ahead of the announcement of the pause.

Both he and Sheinbaum said that the Mexican National Guard troops that she is sending to the border with the U.S. will have the mission of halting drug trafficking from Mexico, particularly that of the deadly opioid fentanyl.

Trump also wrote that the Mexican troops will aim to stop the flow “of migrants into our Country.”

Sheinbaum first disclosed the pause on the tariffs on Mexico in a post on the X social media site.

“We had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty; we reached a series of agreements,” Sheinbaum wrote in the tweet, according to a translation from Spanish.

She also wrote, “The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.”

Trump had not mentioned a commitment to stem the flow of weapons in his Truth Social post about his conversation with Sheinbaum.

At a news conference Monday morning, Sheinbaum was asked whether the issue of migrants and deportations from the U.S. was addressed during her call with Trump.

“We will always support and defend them. Always,” Sheinbaum answered.

She also said Mexican officials in discussions with the U.S. State Department are “working hard to defend our Mexican brothers and sisters.”

Feb 2, 2025

The Tariffs

Tariffs can be helpful - if they're carefully considered, and selectively applied.

This doesn't look like it satisfies either of the essential criteria:


We won't know what he's actually doing - what he actually thinks he's doing - until some of the shit starts to hit the fan.
  • Is he just flexing - reminding us that he's the big dog and we need to stay in line?
  • Is this intended as leverage on someone or something?
  • What does he stand to gain personally?
  • Is it intended to put us in danger - or make us think we're in danger - so he can play hero and rescue us? (He declared an "economic emergency" to justify it, y'know)
  • Is it some kind of variation on the Milton Friedman thing - Economic Shock Therapy? (A strategy that involves exploiting political and social chaos to implement unpopular policies. These policies favor corporations and disadvantage citizens)
Knowing what we know about the workings of Trump's "brain", there's no way this shit does anything but fuck things up. And given the Project 2025 subtext, that could be the whole point.

The tariffs don't take effect until Tuesday, so maybe it's just something he needed to do to claim that he kept a campaign promise, and he'll pull back, saying he's so amazingly awesome that all he had to do was say "Jump!" and the whole world said "How high, sir?".


Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising prospect of higher costs for U.S. consumers

The Trump administration put the tariffs in place to force the three countries to stop the spread and manufacturing of fentanyl, in addition to pressuring Canada and Mexico to limit any illegal immigration into the United States.

The word 'ostensibly' belongs in that sentence: "The Trump Administration put the tariffs in place ostensibly to force the three countries..."
The Denver Post is proving itself to be pretty docile and stenographer-ey.

PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump on Saturday signed an order to impose stiff tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China — fulfilling one of his post-campaign commitments to voters that also carries the risk of sparking higher inflation and disrupting businesses across North America.

Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place duties of 10% on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada — America’s largest trading partners — except for a 10% rate on Canadian energy, including oil, natural gas and electricity. The tariffs would go into effect on Tuesday, setting a showdown in North America that could potentially sabotage economic growth.

A senior administration official, insisting on anonymity to brief reporters, said the lower rate on energy reflected a desire to minimize any disruptive increases on the price of gasoline or utilities. That’s a sign the White House understood as outside economists have warned that the import taxes if sustained could dramatically increase inflation, a possible problem for Trump as he promised to tame inflation after public unhappiness with price spikes under former President Joe Biden.

The order signed by Trump contained no mechanism for granting exceptions, the official said, a possible blow to homebuilders who rely on Canadian lumber as well as farmers, automakers and other industries.

The White House said Trump’s order also includes a mechanism to escalate the rates if the countries retaliate against the U.S., as they have threatened. Both Canada and Mexico have plans, if needed, to impose their own tariffs in response.

The Trump administration put the tariffs in place to force the three countries to stop the spread and manufacturing of fentanyl, in addition to pressuring Canada and Mexico to limit any illegal immigration into the United States.

The official did not provide specific benchmarks that could be met to lift the new tariffs, saying only that the best measure would be fewer Americans dying from fentanyl addition.

The order would also allow for tariffs on Canadian imports of less than $800. Imports below that sum are currently able to cross into the United States without customs and duties.

The Republican president is making a major political bet that his actions will not worsen inflation, cause financial aftershocks that could destabilize the worldwide economy or provoke a voter backlash. AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate in last year’s election, found that the U.S. was split on support for tariffs.

With the tariffs, Trump is honoring promises that are at the core of his economic and national security philosophy. But the announcement showed his seriousness around the issue as some Trump allies had played down the threat of higher import taxes as mere negotiating tactics.

The president is preparing more import taxes in a sign that tariffs will be an ongoing part of his second term. On Friday, he mentioned imported computer chips, steel, oil and natural gas, as well as against copper, pharmaceutical drugs and imports from the European Union — moves that could essentially pit the U.S. against much of the global economy.

It is unclear how the tariffs could affect the business investments that Trump said would happen because of his plans to cut corporate tax rates and remove regulations. Tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers and businesses by making it more expensive to bring in foreign goods.

Many voters turned to Trump in the November election on the belief that he could better handle the inflation that spiked under Democratic President Joe Biden. But inflation expectations are creeping upward in the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment as respondents expect prices to rise by 3.3%. That would be higher than the actual 2.9% annual inflation rate in December’s consumer price index.

Trump has said that the government should raise more of its revenues from tariffs, as it did before the income tax became part of the Constitution in 1913. He claims, despite economic evidence to the contrary, that the U.S. was at its wealthiest in the 1890s under President William McKinley.

“We were the richest country in the world,” Trump said Friday. “We were a tariff country.”

Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted on the social media site X that the tariffs “if sustained, would be a massive shock — a much bigger move in one weekend than all the trade action that Trump took in his first term.”

Setser noted that the tariffs on China without exemptions could raise the price of iPhones, which would test just how much power corporate America has with Trump. Apple’s CEO Tim Cook attended Trump’s inauguration last month.

Recent research on Trump’s various tariff options by a team of economists suggested the trade penalties would be drags on growth in Canada, Mexico, China and the U.S. But Wending Zhang, a Cornell University economist who worked on the research, said the fallout would be felt more in Canada and Mexico because of their reliance on the U.S. market.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Canadians that they could be facing difficult times ahead, but that Ottawa was prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs if needed and that the U.S. penalties would be self-sabotaging.

Trudeau said Canada is addressing Trump’s calls on border security by implementing a CDN$1.3 billion (US$900 million) border plan that includes helicopters, new canine teams and imaging tools.

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum has stressed that her country has acted to reduce illegal border crossings and the illicit trade in fentanyl. While she has emphasized the ongoing dialogue since Trump first floated the tariffs in November, she has said that Mexico is ready to respond, too.

Mexico has a “Plan A, Plan B, Plan C for what the United States government decides,” she said.

Trump still has to get a budget, tax cuts and an increase to the government’s legal borrowing authority through Congress. The outcome of his tariff plans could strengthen his hand or weaken it.

Democrats are sponsoring legislation that would strip the president of his ability to impose tariffs without congressional approval. But that is unlikely to make headway in a Republican-controlled House and Senate.

Because of course - why would Republicans in Congress want to maintain the separation of powers as required by the US Constitution? Silly people.

“If this weekend’s tariffs go into effect, they’ll do catastrophic damage to our relationships with our allies and raise costs for working families by hundreds of dollars a year,” said Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del. “Congress needs to stop this from happening again.”

Jan 31, 2025

About Those Tariffs


On products and materials we import from Mexico and Canada:
  • Cars & Parts
  • Electrical & Electronics
  • Machinery & Boilers
  • Dirty fuels
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Opticals, Photographic, Medical Equipment
  • Furniture & pre-fab buildings
  • Beverages & Vinegars
  • Fruits, Nuts, & Veggies
  • Fats & Oils
  • Fertilizers, meats, other farm/farming products
  • Plastics
  • Iron & Steel
  • Precious metals & gems
  • Rubber
  • Cereal grains & flour
  • Paper products
  • Aircraft & Spacecraft
  • Aluminum
  • Lumber & wood products
Add them all up, and you've got almost $732 billion worth of imported goods from just those 2 countries.

Multiply that by .25 (25% tariffs), and that's $183 billion in additional cost to American consumers (not including the "downstream" costs like packaging and packing materials, added costs for housing and transportation, and the rise in prices just in case things get even worse, and let's face it, this Donald fucking Trump we're talking about here - things will get worse).

Divide that $183 billion by 127 million households, and we all get to pay $1440 more than what we're paying now, plus whatever extra we'll have to pay for everything because of the inflation caused by something as fucking stupid as Trump's tariffs.

Wanna talk about the stuff we import from China?

Sep 27, 2024

Today's Vic

About that tariff thingie.



IMHO, Republicans want tariffs for possibly two reasons.
  1. To kill off the normal income tax schedules
  2. To petty fog their schemes to smash dissent by stripping resources from potential opposition, and keep people so busy just trying to stay afloat that they don't dare make waves
When dealing with "conservatives" on any issue, the one thing you can always count on is that they're angling for control. Minority rule (aka: The Daddy State) doesn't work if people feel free to confront and challenge the privilege and sense of entitlement of snobbish effete plutocrats.

That's why they want to kill women's rights, and cut back voting rights, and squash labor rights, and eliminate Queerfolk rights, and and and.