That Ad

Doug Ford is said to have aired this in some US markets, and it apparently put a knot in Trump's Underoos, so of course, he threw one of his little tantrums and cut off all trade talks with the Canadians.

Trump's knee jerk tweet:

The message in the ad was indeed edited, but the editing didn't change the gist of Reagan's remarks.

Trade barriers always end up being bad for everybody - especially when they're imposed with no real thought by a petty vindictive numbskull like Trump.

Today's Belle

Gaslighting is all they've got now.

Notice how the Trump gang dismisses the ranchers' complaints, telling them they should be grateful their product is selling at a high price, and that they should be helping consumers by lowering their prices.

Classic abuser.

Today's Rich

Econ 120 - Tariffs

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Today's Rich

If Trump doesn't TACO on this tariff shit, it's just possible we find out what that meeting at the Veep's house was all about real soon.

The Slam Is Coming

First:

On average, President Two-Weeks has flip-flopped on tariffs every 4 days.

Second:

He's 0-fer-90 on his trade deals.

Third:

The business bros are ignoring all this weird shit and forging ahead, &/or finding ways to countervail it.

Fourth:

I think we can expect higher prices long after the main effects of tariffs ease off. Sellers who enjoy relatively high profit margins may be willing to eat some of the tariffs, but grocers (eg) don't have that option.

And we've already seen what happens when prices go up because of natural causes, and then don't go back down once the market's upward pressure has eased. The parasite investor class won't tolerate low or no dividends for long, and they're going to expect companies to make it up to them.

Today's Belle

It's not policy - it's a mood swing.

Today's Belle

Scott Bessent is the sales guy who knows the boss has fucked up the product, so he has to try to bullshit his way thru with techno-terms that he desperately hopes will fog the issues just enough to keep the customer placated.

Today's Belle

No ships have sailed from China, bound for the US since last Wednesday.

There are no ships (or very few - reports are all over the place) at berth in SeaTac or LA/Long Beach.

When demand stays steady, and supply decreases, price will go up.

Stand Up - Fight Back

Brace For Impact

There's this thing they teach in Econ 101 (and any given Marketing Seminar) called elasticity.

Trump's tariffs are in effect, and the last un-tariffed cargo ship we're expecting from China sailed a week or two ago.

It takes 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 weeks for the goods to sail o'er the bounding main, and then another week or more to get the stuff from the ports to the local Walmart.

So we can expect interruptions and delays and shortages and higher prices beginning in a month or so.

But one other thing about elasticity: even if Trump manages to get his head out of his ass long enough to think up some bullshit story about how he won The Great Patriotic Trade War, shit doesn't just suddenly get put right, and we're back to normal overnight.

First, other countries in the world - some we call "friend" - have been itchin' for a chance to fuck us over for a very long time. New trade deals that exclude the US are being worked out right now, and there's more than a fair probability that the rest of the world takes this opportunity to hedge their bets and not "get back to normal" - not when the US can so easily become unreliable.

Second, Capitalism leans pretty heavily on the notion of "scarcity" to keep their prices high in order to maximize shareholder value. There's a whole big bunch of companies creaming their jeans over the prospect of milking this problem for every nickel they can squeeze out of it, and plenty of them will never go "back to normal" because they're learning that lots of us will just sit here and take it. So don't expect prices to go back down once this shit is over - because they're going to find a way to keep us hangin' for as long as they can.

That About Covers It

Americans didn’t vote for less stuff that costs more

Trump is wrong to say he has buy-in for transforming the world’s biggest economy.

President Donald Trump seems to be in denial about the unpopularity of his trade wars. On what he intended as a victory lap to coincide with the 100th day of his second term, he repeatedly attacked pollsters as “crooked people” who put out “fake polls.”

At a rally in Michigan on Tuesday, Trump claimed his approval rating was “in the 60s or 70s.” A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts it at 39 percent. This is the same share of American adults as approve of his handling of the economy. And nearly two-thirds, 64 percent, oppose Trump’s tariffs on imported goods.

These numbers are consistent across several recent public surveys. This led to one of the more awkward moments of the past week. During a live interview Tuesday, Fox News correspondent John Roberts asked Stephen Miller, a White House deputy chief of staff, about his network’s polling. “Particularly on the economy, tariffs and inflation, he’s well underwater,” Roberts said of Trump. To which Miller responded: “It is our opinion that Fox News needs to fire its pollster. … We don’t acknowledge any of that polling.”

In another interview Tuesday, Terry Moran of ABC News asked Trump about economists warning that his trade war with China will cost the typical American family thousands of dollars a year. The correspondent said many who voted for Trump fear the fallout. Trump replied: “Well, they did sign up for it, actually. And this is what I campaigned on.” Then he insisted that China will “eat those tariffs” rather than raise prices. This is unimaginable.

During a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Trump seemed a little more willing to acknowledge that a protracted trade fight with China will force consumers to adjust their behavior. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” he said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”

This sounded like Trump’s “malaise” moment. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter delivered a notorious address from the Oval Office that was similarly motivated by a lamentation of U.S. dependence on foreign imports. In Carter’s case, though, the import was oil. “We can’t go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce,” he said. Americans didn’t want to wear cardigans or lower their thermostats. Outside wartime, calling for austerity has rarely been a winning political message.

Trump’s assumption, for decades, has been that Americans can have it all. During the rally Tuesday, he promised to make the country wealthy again. Yet here he was acknowledging to his Cabinet that Americans might need to pay more money for less stuff.

The president is right to say that he campaigned on imposing tariffs. At his rallies, he extolled the beauty of the T-word. Yet many of his voters did not think they were voting to end the era of consumerism. This has become a refrain from his administration. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in March, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream.”

Yes, Americans still want to put inexpensive Barbies, G.I. Joes and Disney dolls under their Christmas trees. But the United States depends on Chinese imports for far more than cheap toys.

Even a slight majority of Republicans, 51 percent, say they think Trump’s economic policies will cause an economic recession in the short term, even as they overwhelmingly continue to support him, according to the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll. Asked whether Trump’s policies will put the U.S. economy on a stronger foundation in the long run, only 31 percent of Americans said yes; 42 percent said they will leave us weaker, and 22 percent said it’s too soon to say.

Trump said Friday on social media that the economy is going through a “transition stage.” He’s blaming his predecessor and urging patience. So far, the U.S. economy has proved quite resilient, even as businesses pause investment decisions while they wait for some certainty about what’s ahead. Though the labor market cooled last month, the government said Friday that employers still added 177,000 jobs. And though the U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years during the first quarter, annualized gross domestic product contracted by just 0.3 percent.

A central challenge for Trump’s project is that he still has not secured buy-in to fundamentally transform the world’s biggest economy, let alone to decouple from China, the world’s second-largest economy. A resolution disapproving Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs failed in the Senate on Wednesday with only 49 votes but would have passed had two senators not been absent. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), who deserves credit for defending Congress’s constitutional prerogative, said afterward that many GOP senators privately dislike the tariffs and will start speaking out if the economy continues to weaken. They hope Trump cleans up the mess first.

With luck, this might still be possible. China signaled a new willingness Friday to start talks with the United States. Container ships that carry goods from China take about a month to cross the Pacific. Trump can get them moving again if both sides come to the table.

Today's Belle

Farmers prefer to earn their money from the markets.

Today's Belle

Trump either has to figure out how to spin it as a W, or keep doubling down until the whole thing craters in on all our heads.

So, as is typical, Trump's self-loathing is at war with his survival instincts. How hot does he allow that war to get?

Farmer Lady

Facts don't give a fuck about your feelings - markets do.

Return To Sender

China is sending 2 planes back - which will cost Boeing an extra $70M each (tariffs).

And they're canceling orders for maybe another 50.

At $55M per airplane, that's $2.5B in lost revenue - money that was all but in the fucking bag.

This is a total unforced error - an own goal - shooting yourself in the foot.

China sends Boeing planes back to US over tariffs

China has sent back planes it ordered from the US in its latest retaliation over Trump tariffs, the boss of aircraft maker Boeing has said.

Kelly Ortberg said two planes had already been returned and another would follow after trade tensions between the two countries escalated.

Boeing's chief executive told CNBC that 50 more planes were due to go to China this year but their customers had indicated they will not take delivery of them.

The US put 145% tariffs on imports from China and it hit back with a 125% tax on US products.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump said he was optimistic about improving trade relations with China, saying the level of tariffs he had imposed would "come down substantially, but it won't be zero".

However, Mr Ortberg said China "have in fact stopped taking delivery of aircraft because of tariff environment".

Boeing is America's largest exporter with about 70% of its commercial aircraft sales outside of the US.

Mr Ortberg said Boeing was assessing options to re-market 41 of the already built planes to other customers as there was high demand from other airlines.

He said there were nine planes not yet in Boeing's production system and he wanted to "understand their intentions and if necessary we can assign to other customers".

He added Boeing was "not going continue to build aircraft for customers who will not take them".

Boeing in daily talks with Trump's team

Later in the afternoon, Mr Ortberg told an investor call "there is not a day that goes by that we're not engaged with either cabinet secretaries or either POTUS himself (President Trump) regarding the trade war between China and the USA."

He added he was "very hopeful we'll get to some negotiations".

On Wednesday, America's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conference there was an opportunity for a "big deal" between the US and China on trade.

Asked about an upcoming meeting between the countries, Bessent said it would be an "incredible opportunity" to strike an agreement, if China was "serious" on making its economy less dependent on manufacturing exports.

Mr Ortberg also told investors others in the Boeing supply chain were now exposed to tariffs - mainly in Japan and Italy where universal tariffs of 10% are being implemented.

Brian West, Boeing's chief financial officer said during the call "free trade policy is very important to us" and Boeing will continue to work to with suppliers to ensure continuity.

Boeing has reported smaller losses for the first quarter of the year after it manufactured and delivered more planes.

Production had slumped in 2024 due to a series of crises and a strike by about 30,000 American factory workers.

It wants to increase output of its 737 MAX jets to 38 a month in 2025.

Everything Trump touches

turns to shit

Pod Save America

On Trump's fucked up flip-floppy trade "policies".

Auctioning access

Polling

DOGE

etc

Don't Hold Your Breath

Good deals on international trade don't get done in a hurry. They don't take a few months and half a dozen phone calls. They can take a decade or more.

"... a grossly optimistic timeframe."

Beep Beep Beep

Supply Chain Trouble

Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves, the only freight-focused organization that delivers a complete and comprehensive view of the freight and logistics market. FreightWaves’ news, content, market data, insights, analytics, innovative engagement and risk management tools are unprecedented and unmatched in the industry. Prior to founding FreightWaves, Fuller was the founder and CEO of TransCard, a fleet payment processor that was sold to US Bank. He also is a trucking industry veteran, having founded and managed the Xpress Direct division of US Xpress Enterprises, the largest provider of on-demand trucking services in North America.

Fuller is saying that container shipping volumes (how much stuff is being shipped) have dropped drastically and very quickly.

• He predicts that by May, freight moving out of California ports will almost completely stop.
• “Bloodbath in dray”: “Dray” refers to drayage — the short-distance transportation of goods, especially from ports to rail yards or warehouses. A “bloodbath” means many job losses or business closures are expected here.
• Impact spreading: After drayage, the collapse will hit intermodal (freight using multiple forms of transport — ship, rail, truck), and then long-haul trucking routes, specifically I-20 and I-40, which are major east-west highways.
• Blank sailings: This means scheduled ships are not departing — often due to lack of demand.
• Comparison: In May 2020 (early in COVID), there were 51 blank sailings. Now, in April 2025, there are already over 80, which suggests this current situation is worse than during the pandemic.
• “COVID will look like good times”: This is a dramatic way of saying that the shipping crisis now could be even more economically painful than what happened during COVID-19.

In Summary:

• There’s a major freight crisis brewing, especially out of California ports.
• This could trigger a domino effect: port slowdown → local freight jobs lost → national trucking routes disrupted.
• Some experts believe this may be more severe than the economic shipping impacts seen during COVID.