Logical Fallacy #22 - Anecdotal

The expression anecdotal evidence refers to evidence from anecdotes. Because of the small sample, there is a larger chance that it may be unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases.[1][2] Anecdotal evidence is considered dubious support of a generalized claim; it is, however, perfectly acceptable for claims regarding a particular instance. Anecdotal evidence is no more than a type description (i.e., short narrative), and is often confused in discussions with its weight, or other considerations, as to the purpose(s) for which it is used. This is true regardless of the veracity of individual claims.[3][4][5]

The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is an informal fallacy and is sometimes referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a "typical" experience; in fact, human cognitive biases such as confirmation bias mean that exceptional or confirmatory anecdotes are much more likely to be remembered. Accurate determination of whether an anecdote is "typical" requires statistical evidence.[6][7]

What I Love

It seems a lifetime ago, but there was a time I had the great privilege of being allowed to hang around at the periphery of arguments like this one:



There's just something amazingly inspiring to me when I hear the heavyweights gettin' after it like that.

And also too, the exchange between Tyson and Dawkins was exactly that - it was an exchange.  Both men are strong advocates of their respective points of view, and they don't mince words in presenting them or defending them.  But what makes this important to me is that both men have points of view that have real and intrinsic value.  They're both coming at it from the perspective of reason and provable fact - and they'll battle it out as to the best way to get their points across to an audience less knowledgable than themselves.  Ya just can't not love that.

But instead of hearing this kind of smart discussion, the "debate" we get to witness on practically any subject is limited to a stultifying exhibition of Fact vs "Yeah, but Jesus" - or Fact vs "Yeah, but some people say" - or Fact vs "Yeah, but the Democrats".

And it ends with, "So, scientists are telling us the earth is a sphere that rotates on its axis and orbits the local star, while others believe this not to be the case - obviously some good arguments on both sides, but we'll have to leave it at that because the marketing department needs to sell you some shit you've never heard of, which you don't need, and you can't afford.  Please join us tomorrow for our featured segment - Oxygen: Essential to human life or just another scam from the Chemical Manufacturers?"

Image Is A Thing

In the picture below, there are 5 guys clearly visible.

Only one of them is not dressed (and not behaving) in a manner which might indicate that he's looking for trouble.

I'm not saying there's anything that justifies the riots.  Sometimes, the reality of shitty circumstances plus the tears of impotent rage just kinda catch up with you and it all blows up in unpredictably unavoidable (and understandable) ways.

You may be at the protest to show a little solidarity with your community, and maybe to vent your spleen a little by yelling at the cops, but all it takes is for one jag-off to throw one bottle, and suddenly a really bad situation gets a whole lot worse.

Cuz here's the thing: Authoritarians will always provoke you into actions they can use to rationalize their intentions to lord their power over you.  Once that bottle is thrown, they have the excuse they were looking for all along.

Today's Pix

(click on an image to blow it all up into a slideshow)

 

A Question

...if I may, please.  How come this story gets decent coverage on one of HBO's comedy shows, but not on any of the big network "news" shows?



favorite line: "Apparently, even the cluster fucks are bigger in Texas."

hat tip = Wonkette

Revisiting The Visitors Thing

From The Daily Press (Virginia tidewater area) yesterday, talking about the most recent attempt to swing government towards the Authoritarian side of the spectrum:

We are quick to criticize elected officials and government bodies when they seek to limit the public's access to information, either by operating behind closed doors or concealing documents which should be readily available for the asking. It is similarly important to single out such groups for praise when they make a decision respecting those principles.

That brings us to the University of Virginia, the commonwealth's flagship institution, which smartly walked away from a worrisome aspect of a proposed "statement of expectations" being prepared for its Board of Visitors by a subcommittee of that board.

A draft circulated earlier this month attempted to quash dissent by members, instructing them to avoid speaking publicly on board decisions "whether past, present or imminent" unless granted the approval of the board's leader. Essentially it would require the board to speak with one unified, unquestioning voice.

Starts out pretty good, but then this:

Dr. Sullivan was pressured to resign before public outcry led to her reinstatement in what can charitably be described as a debacle for the university's Board of Visitors and a highly visible black eye for the entire U.Va. community.

That last bit sounds a lot like Blaming The Victim, so I gotta ask - in what way do you think Terry Sullivan was at fault for being the target of an attempted coup orchestrated (in secret) by Helen Dragas; and how exactly was it wrong for an outraged public to protest such dirty dealing?

It's not always easy to see who's wrong and who's right, but sometimes it's actually pretty clear.  But then somehow, no matter what the issue is, and no matter what the outcome was; for the public, the discussion of these problems must always be shoe-horned into "both sides..." and "plenty of blame to go around" and "it makes everybody look bad" etc etc etc.  False Equivalency must prevail.

The Press Poodles have become extraordinarily adept at making it sound like they're just trying to be the voice of moderation - trying to keep the peace - trying to maintain a healthy balance.

Maybe we're seeing the logical progression of the very sorry state of affairs in the News-As-Profit-Center model of "journalism" in the 21st century.  They can't afford to take any financial hits, so if they piss off any of their readers then they stand to lose revenue, and that means they dance according to whoever's paying the band, and that means we get "news" that's been bleached to the point of invisibility.

But for me it also means we're being told not to pay attention; we shouldn't let it worry our pretty little heads, and we can all just go back to sleep.

Bullshit.

It matters what's true and not true.
It matters what's best for the most.
It matters what my government is doing in my name and with my money.
It matters that I have a say in how my government operates.

And it matters a lot for the 4th Estate to get back up on its hind legs and start doing it's fucking job again.

Hey, News Editors - if you think something's fucked up, then you say so.  If it turns out you got it wrong, then you own it and you say you were wrong about it - and hey, guess what - that means you'll have something to put in your little newspaper tomorrow.  Could we try that for a while?

The War Picture

This has been making the rounds, and the story is that media editors refused to publish it because it was just a little too gruesome for domestic consumption.  Bullshit.

First, it's bullshit because there's never a shortage of War Porn consumers.

But second, sometimes when we're feeling more honest than usual, we'll say, "Well, it's awful; but, you know, it's war - and people die in war".

Bullshit again.  People don't just die in war.  They aren't lying around waiting to drift off into some eternal slumber.  They're killed - usually with a very particular purpose in mind, and in the most horrific and brutal ways it will ever be anybody's misfortune to witness or even imagine.

Whether you were for the war or against it; whether you thought it was necessary or stoopid; that picture shows us what was done in our names and on our behalf - either because we said that's what we wanted done, or because we didn't do enough to keep it from being done.

We have no right to turn away.

Today's Pix (NSFW)

Today's Video

You know you're politically dead to about 60% of the country when Jon Stewart cuts you into tiny little pieces and scatters your remains to the wind.

The Daily Show
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I won't say ol' Vaginal Bob is all washed up - lord knows there's a double-digit percentage of voters with single-digit IQs who're thinking "anybody them libruls hate that much cain't be all bad".  The guy actually still has a constituency, and that makes him worth something to the GOP machine.

So he'll find his way into the Wingnut Welfare System.  My guess is that he'll drop out of sight for a while - he has to raise a shitload of money for "the defense fund" and that means he has to stay low while some of his "friends" make a shitload of money off of his need for a shitload of money (politics is as good a scam as religion in exactly that way), but mostly he needs time to reflect and to assess and to search his soul, and to find a good ghost writer for the truly inspiring story of his rise to the Governor's Mansion, and his fall (because of the wickedness of his helpmate who was tempted by the Evil One because of her lustful heart); and his time in purgatory, and his eventual redemption in the eyes of The Lord - can I get a fuckin' AMEN here, people!?!

And then he'll end up with a relatively low-profile job at one of the Lobby Shops, where he'll slave away for a few election cycles, and then suddenly pop up at one of the "conservative" circle jerks - CPAC or whatever - to take his shot at re-emerging as a viable  political player etc etc etc.

We've seen this movie a thousand times.

Friday Tune-A-Rama

Red Handed --Obadiah Parker





I'm Yours --Jason Mraz





In A Sentimental Mood --Emily Remler





I'll Be Over You (cover) --Andy McKee





White Rhythm and Blues --JD Souther





Words --Gregory Alan Isakov





Hellos and Good-Byes --Tommy Emmanuel





Love Song --Sara Bareilles